Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 21, Issue 9, 2001, Pages 1111-1152

  Goddard, L ^a,c   Mason, S J ^a   Zebiak, S E ^a   Ropelewski, C F ^b   Basher, R ^a   Cane, M A ^a  

^a International Research Institute for Climate and Society   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University   (United States)

Author keywords

Dynamical prediction; Ensembles; ENSO; Probabilistic forecasts; Seasonal climate variability; Statistical prediction

Indexed keywords

RESEARCH; WEATHER FORECASTING;

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

CLIMATOLOGY;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE PREDICTION; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0035389740     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.636     Document Type: Article

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242. Ensemble prediction using dynamically-conditioned perturbations
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263. Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Niño of Pleiades visibility
264. Evaluation of the European daily precipitation characteristics from the atmospheric model intercomparison project
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266. The prospects for seasonal forecasting
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290. Weather regimes: The challenge in extended-range forecasting
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293. Improved global sea surface temperature analysis using optimal interpolation
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296. Interannual variability of South-Eastern African summer rainfall. Part 1: Relationships with air-sea interaction processes
297. Variations in seasonal rainfall in Southern Europe during the present century: Relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
298. Breaks in the Asian monsoon: The influence of Southern Hemisphere weather systems
299. ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM
300. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
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302. Quantifying Southern Oscillation - Precipitation relationships
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310. An investigation of the relationship between Sub-Saharan rainfall and global sea surface temperatures
311. Empirical orthogonal function analyses of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature and wind stress: 1964-1979
312. A pilot research moored array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA)
313. Skill of seasonal climate forecasts in Canada using canonical correlation analysis
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315. Predictability in the midst of chaos: A scientific basis for climate forecasting
316. Relationships between sea-surface temperature and wind speed over the Arabian Sea and monsoon rainfall over India
317. Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India
318. The Southern Oscillation and long range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India
319. New regression-model for Indian-summer monsoon rainfall
320. Relationship between mid-latitude circulation indices and Indian northeast monsoon rainfall
321. An ensemble forecasting primer
322. GCM systematic error correction and specification of the seasonal mean Pacific-North America region atmosphere from global SSTs
323. A univariate statistical interpolation scheme for subsurface thermal analyses in the tropical oceans
324. The value of improved ENSO prediction to US agriculture
325. The predictability of weather and climate
326. Feasibility of seasonal forecasts inferred from multiple GCM simulations
327. Ocean modeling for ENSO
328. Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
329. SOI phase relationships with rainfall in Eastern Australia
330. A delayed action oscillator for ENSO
331. Climate simulation over East Africa using the NCEP regional spectral model
332. The relative operating characteristic in psychology
333. Skill comparisons between neural networks and canonical correlation analysis in predicting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures
334. Forecasting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures by neural network models
335. Forecasting the regional sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific by neural network models, with wind stress and sea level pressure as predictors
336. Forecasting ENSO events: A neural network-extended EOF approach
337. Influence of Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies on the general circulation of Southern Africa
338. Preliminary and final long range forecast for seasonal monsoon rainfall over India
339. Predictions of African rainfall on the seasonal timescale
340. Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns
341. How to improve accuracy by combining independent forecasts
342. Evolution of the ENSO Signal over the Indo-Pacific Domain
343. Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects
344. The predicted above-normal rainfall of the seventies and the likelihood of droughts in the eighties in South Africa
345. The likelihood of droughts in the eighties in South Africa
346. The relationships between tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST and Northeast Brazil monthly precipitation
347. Searching for analogs, how long must we wait?
348. 3rd annual review of skill of CPC real time long lead predictions
349. The Coupled GCM ECHO-2, II: Indian Ocean response to ENSO
350. Prediction of all India summer monsoon rainfall using error-back-propagation neural networks
351. The effect of Eurasian snow cover on the Indian Monsoon
352. Medium- and long-range forecasting
353. Surface conditions associated with anomalous rainfall in the Guinea coastal region
354. Correlation of seasonal variations in weather IX: A further study of world weather
355. World Weather V
356. On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Lessons from TOGA
357. The 1997-98 El Niño evolution relative to previous El Niño events
358. Diagnosis and short-lead prediction of summer rainfall in tropical North Africa at interannual and multidecadal timescales
359. Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the North Nordeste of Brazil using eigenvectors of sea-surface temperatures
360. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of Atlantic surface temperatures
361. A statistical study of the relationship between ocean temperature and Indian monsoon
362. The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system
363. Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-1998
364. Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction
365. Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems
366. Influence of the Antarctic circumpolar wave on Australia precipitation from 1958-1997
367. Downscaling general circulation model output: A review of methods and limitations
368. On the interpretation of probabilistic climate forecasts
369. Diagnostic verification of the Climate Prediction Center long-lead outlooks, 1995-1998
370. Estimating monthly and seasonal precipitation distributions using the 30-day and 90-day outlooks
371. Combining forecasts - A philosophical basis and some current issues
372. The Southern Oscillation in the surface circulation and climate over the tropical Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Indian oceans
373. Water displacements in the Pacific and the genesis of El Niño cycles
374. El Niño - The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing
375. Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs
376. Principal oscillation pattern: Prediction of the state of ENSO
377. On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low-order Markov model
378. ENSO prediction with Markov models: The impact of sea level
379. Precursory signals associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon
380. Reproducible forced modes in AGCM ensemble integrations and potential predictability of atmospheric variations in the extratropics
381. Predictive skills of seasonal to annual rainfall variations in the US Affiliated Pacific Islands: Canonical correlation analysis and multivariate principal components regression approaches
382. A simple atmospheric model of relevance to El Niño
383. Atmospheric convergence feedback in a simple model for El Niño
384. Air-sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region
385. A model El Niño Southern Oscillation
386. Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction
387. Verification of categorical probability forecasts