Retro-active skill of multi-tiered forecasts of summer rainfall over southern Africa

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 21, Issue 1, 2001, Pages 1-19

  Landman, Willem Adlof ^a   Mason, Simon J ^b   Tyson, Peter D ^a   Tennant, Warren J ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND   (South Africa)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Baseline skill; Canonical correlation analysis; Downscaling; General circulation model; Perfect prognosis; Seasonal rainfal forecasts; Southern africa

Indexed keywords

RAINFALL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

AFRICA; PACIFIC OCEAN;

EID: 0035095625     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.592     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States air temperature determined by canonical correlation analysis
2. Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies
3. Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere
4. Prediction of ENSO using canonical correlation analysis
5. Specification and prediction of global surface temperature and precipitation from global SST using CCA
6. A degeneracy in cross-validated skill in regression-based forecasts
7. Long-lead seasonal forecasts-where do we stand?
8. Long-lead forecasts of seasonal precipitation in Africa using CCA
9. Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997/98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset
10. A two-tiered approach to long-rang climate forecasting
11. Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model
12. Seasonal forecasting
13. Forecasting Zimbawean maize yield using eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures
14. Long-range prediction of Hawaiin winter rainfall using canonical correlation analysis
15. Coastal sea level and the large-scale climate state. A downscaling exercise for Japanese Islands
16. Water vapour transport over southern Africa during wet and dry early and summer months
17. Divergent and non-divergent water vapour transport over southern Africa during wet and dry conditions
18. Three dimensional kinematic trajectory modelling of water vapour transport over southern Africa
19. Assessing forecast skill through cross-validation
20. El Niño in the 1990s
21. The importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and southern Africa
22. ENSO and ENSO-related predictability. Part II: Northern Hemisphere 700-mb height predictions based on a hybrid coupled ENSO model
23. An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. 1. Predictor field characteristics
24. An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. 2. Model results
25. Prediction of summer rainfall over South Africa
26. Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting
27. Prospects and problems for multi-seasonal predictions: Some issues arising from a study of 1992
28. Experimental predictions of climate variability for lead times of twelve months
29. Discarding variables in principal component analysis. I: Artificial data
30. Simulating present and future climates of southern Africa using general circulation models
31. A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean
32. Exploratory long-range models to estimate summer climate variability over southern Africa
33. A method of relating general circulation model simulated climate to the observed local climate. Seasonal statistics
34. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project
35. A rotated EOF analysis of global sea surface temperature variability with interannual and interdecadal scales
36. Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean-global atmosphere system
37. 15-year simulation of the December to March rainfall season of the 1980s and 1990s using canonical correlation analysis (CCA)
38. Operational long-lead prediction of South African rainfall using canonical correlation analysis
39. Change in the association between Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures and summer rainfall over South Africa and Nambia
40. Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques
41. Predictability of Zimbabwe summer rainfall
42. Sea-surface temperature-South African rainfall associations, 1910-1989
43. Seasonal forecasting of South African rainfall using a non-linear discriminant analysis model
44. Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating levels
45. Simulated changes in extreme rainfall over southern Africa
46. Climate variability and change over southern Africa: A reflection on underlying processes
47. The occurrence and predictability of drought over southern Africa
48. Simulating drought in southern Africa using sea surface temperature variations
49. Review of seasonal forecasting techniques and their applicability of southern Africa
50. The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event
51. Evaluation of a seasonal forecasting procedure for Namibian rainfall
52. Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models
53. Rainfall variability in equatorial and southern Africa: Relationships with sea surface temperatures along the southwestern coast of Africa
54. The prospects of seasonal forecasting-a review paper
55. Learning from El Niño
56. Revised 'LEPS' scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts
57. Interannual warm and cool events in the subtropical/mid-latitude south Indian Ocean region
58. Variability of the south Indian Ocean and implications for southern African rainfall
59. Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation
60. Interannual variability of south-eastern African summer rainfall. Part I: Relationships with air-sea interaction processes
61. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
62. Precipitation patterns associated with the high index of the Southern Oscillation
63. Skill of seasonal climate forecasts in Canada using canonical correlation analysis
64. Predictability in the midst of chaos: A scientific basis for climate forecasting
65. Reconstruction of historical sea surface temperature using empirical orthogonal functions
66. Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
67. Change of rainfall distribution and circulation patterns over southern Africa in summer
68. Atmospheric circulation systems, synoptic climatology and weather phenomena of South Africa. Part I: Controls of the weather and climate of South Africa
69. Atmospheric circulation systems, synoptic climatology and weather phenomena of South Africa. Part 3: The synoptic climatology of South Africa in January and July
70. A bias in skill in forecasts based on analogues and antilogues
71. Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime
72. Links between South African summer rainfall and temperature variability of the Agulhas and Benguela currents systems
73. Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the north Nordeste of Brazil using eigenvectors of sea-surface temperature
74. Pattern analysis of SST-forced variability in ensemble GCM simulations: Examples over Europe and the tropical Pacific
75. Model simulation of the influence of global SST anomalies on Sahel rainfall