Impact of initial conditions on seasonal simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 126, Issue 567, 2000, Pages 2241-2264

  Anderson, J L ^a   Ploshay, J J ^a  

^a PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Ensembles; Predictability; Seasonal forecasting

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; CLIMATE FORCING; LONG RANGE FORECAST; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

EID: 0033848362     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1256/smsqj.56712     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations
2. Evaluating the potential predictive utility of ensemble forecasts
3. A reexamination of methods for evaluating the predictability of the atmosphere
4. The climatology of blocking in a numerical forecast model
5. The relationship between spread and forecast error in extended-range forecasts
6. Effect of the 1997-98 El Nino on individual large-scale weather events
7. Numerical simulation of the 1993 midwestern flood: Land-atmosphere interactions
8. Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations
9. Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction
10. Seasonal forecasting
11. Atmospheric predictability of seasonal, annual, and decadal climate means and the role of the ENSO cycle: A model study
12. Efficient prediction of ground surface temperature and moisture, with inclusion of a layer of vegetation
13. Parameterized processes in the surface boundary layer of an atmospheric circulation model
14. A global oceanic data assimilation system
15. The potential predictability in a 14-year GCM simulation
16. AMIP: The atmospheric model intercomparison project
17. Comparison of 30-day integrations with and without cloud-radiation interaction
18. A description of the GFDL global spectral model
19. An assessment of seasonal predictability using atmospheric general circulation models
20. Integration of soil moisture, remote sensing and hydrologic modeling using data assimilation
21. An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part II: The coupled model
22. Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
23. A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO
24. A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere-ocean system
25. SST-forced seasonal simulation and prediction skill for versions of the NCEP/MRF model
26. Deterministic nonperiodic flows
27. Attractor sets and quasi-geostrophic equilibrium
28. Initialization with the data assimilation method
29. Impact of sea surface temperature anomalies on the skill of monthly forecasts
30. Reduction of Gibbs oscillation in spectral model simulation
31. Low-frequency predictability of the dynamical extended-range forecast experiment
32. A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations
33. Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation
34. Decadal analysis produced from an ocean data assimilation system
35. The impact of ocean initial conditions on ENSO forecasting with a coupled model
36. Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations
37. The soil-precipitation feedback: A process study with a regional climate model
38. Dynamical seasonal prediction
39. Subgrid scale physics in 1-month forecasts. Part I: Experiment with four parameterization packages
40. Systematic errors in GFDL's extended range prediction spectral GCM
41. Feasibility of seasonal forecasts inferred from multiple GCM simulations
42. Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
43. Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects
44. Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures
45. Invariant manifolds, quasi-geostrophy and initialization
46. Satellite remote sensing of soil moisture in Illinois, United States
47. A GCM assessment of atmospheric seasonal predictability associated with soil moisture anomalies over North America
48. The skill of precipitation and surface temperature forecasts by the NMC global model during DERF II
49. The predictability of autumn soil moisture levels on the Canadian Prairies
50. Three years of operational prediction of forecast skill at NMC
51. Reproducible forced modes in AGCM ensemble integrations and potential predictability of atmospheric seasonal variations in the extratropics