Reliability diagrams for multicategory probabilistic forecasts

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 12, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 736-741

  Hamill, Thomas M ^a,b  

^a Department of Obstetrics Gynecology   (United States)

^b NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0000493076     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0736:RDFMPF>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (8)

1. Daan, H., 1985: Sensitivity of the verification scores to classification of the predictand. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1384-1392.
2. Dallavalle, J. P., J. S. Jensenius Jr., and S. A. Gilbert, 1992: NGM-based MOS guidance - The FOUS14/FWC message. Technical Procedures Bull. 408, NOAA/National Weather Service, Washington, DC, 9 pp. [Available from NOAA/NWS, Services Development Branch, 1325 East-West Highway, Room 13466, Silver Spring, MD 20910.]
3. Epstein, E. S., 1969: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J. Appl. Meteor., 8, 985-987.
4. Hamill, T. M., and D. S. Wilks, 1995: A probabilistic forecast contest and the difficulty in assessing short-range forecast uncertainty. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 620-631.
5. Murphy, A. H., 1971: A note on the ranked probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 10, 155-156.
6. Wilks, D. S., 1990a: On the combination of forecast probabilities for consecutive precipitation periods. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 640-650.
7. _, 1990b: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts derived from PoPs and conditional precipitation amount climatologies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 874-882.
8. _, 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press, 467 pp.