메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 11, Issue 11, 1998, Pages 2942-2959

Reproducible forced modes in AGCM ensemble integrations and potential predictability of atmospheric seasonal variations in the extratropics

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; EXTRATROPICAL ENVIRONMENT; NUMERICAL METHOD; PREDICTION; SEASONALITY; SPATIAL VARIATION;

EID: 0032219151     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2942:RFMIAE>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (40)

References (33)
  • 1
    • 0030438938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations
    • Anderson, J. L., 1996: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Climate, 9, 1518-1530.
    • (1996) J. Climate , vol.9 , pp. 1518-1530
    • Anderson, J.L.1
  • 2
    • 0029776560 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the potential predictive utility of ensemble forecasts
    • _, and W. F. Stern, 1996: Evaluating the potential predictive utility of ensemble forecasts. J. Climate, 9, 260-269.
    • (1996) J. Climate , vol.9 , pp. 260-269
    • Stern, W.F.1
  • 4
    • 0028250159 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations
    • _, _, and L. Ferranti, 1994: Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J. Climate, 7, 217-237.
    • (1994) J. Climate , vol.7 , pp. 217-237
    • Ferranti, L.1
  • 5
    • 0019366650 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of monsoons
    • J. Lighthill and R. Pearce, Eds., Cambridge University Press
    • Charney, J. G., and J. Shukla, 1981: Predictability of monsoons. Monsoon Dynamics, J. Lighthill and R. Pearce, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 735 pp.
    • (1981) Monsoon Dynamics
    • Charney, J.G.1    Shukla, J.2
  • 6
    • 0022837840 scopus 로고
    • Interannual variability and seasonal climate predictability
    • Chervin, R. M., 1986: Interannual variability and seasonal climate predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 233-251.
    • (1986) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.43 , pp. 233-251
    • Chervin, R.M.1
  • 7
    • 0030759423 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble size for numerical seasonal forecasts
    • Deque, M., 1997: Ensemble size for numerical seasonal forecasts. Tellus, 49A, 74-86.
    • (1997) Tellus , vol.49 A , pp. 74-86
    • Deque, M.1
  • 8
    • 0029472467 scopus 로고
    • The potential predictability in a 14-year GCM simulation
    • Ebisuzaki, W., 1995: The potential predictability in a 14-year GCM simulation. J. Climate, 8, 2749-2761.
    • (1995) J. Climate , vol.8 , pp. 2749-2761
    • Ebisuzaki, W.1
  • 9
    • 0028254953 scopus 로고
    • Diagnosis of extratropical variability in seasonal integrations of the ECMWF model
    • Ferranti, L., F. Molteni, C. Brankovic, and T. N. Palmer, 1994: Diagnosis of extratropical variability in seasonal integrations of the ECMWF model. J. Climate, 7, 849-868.
    • (1994) J. Climate , vol.7 , pp. 849-868
    • Ferranti, L.1    Molteni, F.2    Brankovic, C.3    Palmer, T.N.4
  • 10
    • 0027085408 scopus 로고
    • AMIP: The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project
    • Gates, W. L., 1992: AMIP: The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 1962-1970.
    • (1992) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.73 , pp. 1962-1970
    • Gates, W.L.1
  • 11
    • 0019165888 scopus 로고
    • Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation
    • Gill, A. E., 1980: Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 106, 447-462.
    • (1980) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.106 , pp. 447-462
    • Gill, A.E.1
  • 12
  • 13
    • 0001732763 scopus 로고
    • A description of the GFDL global spectral model
    • _, and _, 1982: A description of the GFDL global spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 625-644.
    • (1982) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.110 , pp. 625-644
  • 14
    • 0029413364 scopus 로고
    • Internal versus SST-forced atmospheric variability as simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model
    • Harzallah, A., and R. Sadourny, 1995: Internal versus SST-forced atmospheric variability as simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model. J. Climate, 8, 474-495.
    • (1995) J. Climate , vol.8 , pp. 474-495
    • Harzallah, A.1    Sadourny, R.2
  • 15
    • 0029757527 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing a GCM's suitability for making seasonal predictions
    • Kumar, A., M. Hoerling, M. Ji, A. Leetmaa, and P. Sardeshmukh, 1996: Assessing a GCM's suitability for making seasonal predictions. J. Climate, 9, 115-129.
    • (1996) J. Climate , vol.9 , pp. 115-129
    • Kumar, A.1    Hoerling, M.2    Ji, M.3    Leetmaa, A.4    Sardeshmukh, P.5
  • 16
    • 0000926560 scopus 로고
    • Simulation of ENSO related surface wind anomalies with an atmospheric GCM forced by observed SST
    • Latif, M., J. Biercamp, H. von Storch, M. J. McPhaden, and E. Kirk, 1990: Simulation of ENSO related surface wind anomalies with an atmospheric GCM forced by observed SST. J. Climate, 3, 509-521.
    • (1990) J. Climate , vol.3 , pp. 509-521
    • Latif, M.1    Biercamp, J.2    Von Storch, H.3    McPhaden, M.J.4    Kirk, E.5
  • 17
    • 0022164706 scopus 로고
    • Modeling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed El Niño in 1962-75
    • Lau, N.-C., 1985: Modeling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed El Niño in 1962-75. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1970-1996.
    • (1985) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.113 , pp. 1970-1996
    • Lau, N.-C.1
  • 18
    • 0000619756 scopus 로고
    • A general circulation model study of the atmospheric response to extratropical SST anomalies observed in 1950-79
    • _, and M. J. Nath, 1990: A general circulation model study of the atmospheric response to extratropical SST anomalies observed in 1950-79. J. Climate, 3, 965-989.
    • (1990) J. Climate , vol.3 , pp. 965-989
    • Nath, M.J.1
  • 19
    • 0028578621 scopus 로고
    • A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere-ocean system
    • _, and _, 1994: A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere-ocean system. J. Climate. 7, 1184-1207.
    • (1994) J. Climate , vol.7 , pp. 1184-1207
  • 20
    • 0000248457 scopus 로고
    • Estimates of the natural variability of time-averaged sea-level pressure
    • Madden, R. A., 1976: Estimates of the natural variability of time-averaged sea-level pressure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 942-952.
    • (1976) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.104 , pp. 942-952
    • Madden, R.A.1
  • 21
    • 0019704464 scopus 로고
    • A quantitative approach to long-range prediction
    • _, 1981: A quantitative approach to long-range prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 86, 9817-9825.
    • (1981) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.86 , pp. 9817-9825
  • 22
    • 0002239315 scopus 로고
    • Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area
    • Matsuno, T., 1966: Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 44, 25-43.
    • (1966) J. Meteor. Soc. Japan , vol.44 , pp. 25-43
    • Matsuno, T.1
  • 23
    • 0025589392 scopus 로고
    • Practical extended-range forecasting using dynamical models
    • Milton, S. F., 1990: Practical extended-range forecasting using dynamical models. Meteor. Mag., 119, 221-233.
    • (1990) Meteor. Mag. , vol.119 , pp. 221-233
    • Milton, S.F.1
  • 24
    • 0027430506 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations
    • Mureau, R., F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 299-323.
    • (1993) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.119 , pp. 299-323
    • Mureau, R.1    Molteni, F.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 25
    • 0024256681 scopus 로고
    • The impact of ensemble forecasts on predictability
    • Murphy, J. M., 1989: The impact of ensemble forecasts on predictability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 114, 463-493.
    • (1989) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.114 , pp. 463-493
    • Murphy, J.M.1
  • 26
    • 0025205627 scopus 로고
    • Assessment of the practical utility of extended range ensemble forecasts
    • _, 1990: Assessment of the practical utility of extended range ensemble forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 89-125.
    • (1990) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.116 , pp. 89-125
  • 27
    • 0028554160 scopus 로고
    • The prospects for seasonal forecasting - A review paper
    • Palmer, T. N., and D. L. T. Anderson, 1994: The prospects for seasonal forecasting - A review paper. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 755-793.
    • (1994) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.120 , pp. 755-793
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Anderson, D.L.T.2
  • 28
    • 0000751536 scopus 로고
    • Potential for long-range prediction of monthly mean surface temperatures over North America
    • Shea, D. J., and R. A. Madden, 1990: Potential for long-range prediction of monthly mean surface temperatures over North America. J. Climate, 3, 1444-1451.
    • (1990) J. Climate , vol.3 , pp. 1444-1451
    • Shea, D.J.1    Madden, R.A.2
  • 29
    • 0008127515 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of time averages. Part II: The influence of the boundary forcing
    • D. M. Burridge and E. Kallen, Eds., Springer-Verlag
    • Shukla, J., 1984: Predictability of time averages. Part II: The influence of the boundary forcing. Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting, D. M. Burridge and E. Kallen, Eds., Springer-Verlag, 155-206.
    • (1984) Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting , pp. 155-206
    • Shukla, J.1
  • 30
    • 0029502992 scopus 로고
    • A GCM simulation of global climate interannual variability: 1950-1988
    • Smith, I. N., 1995: A GCM simulation of global climate interannual variability: 1950-1988. J. Climate, 8, 709-718.
    • (1995) J. Climate , vol.8 , pp. 709-718
    • Smith, I.N.1
  • 31
    • 0029519669 scopus 로고
    • Feasibility of seasonal forecasts inferred from multiple GCM simulations
    • Stern, W. F., and K. Miyakoda, 1995: Feasibility of seasonal forecasts inferred from multiple GCM simulations. J. Climate, 8, 1071-1085.
    • (1995) J. Climate , vol.8 , pp. 1071-1085
    • Stern, W.F.1    Miyakoda, K.2
  • 32
    • 0027705108 scopus 로고
    • Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects
    • Tracton, M. S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 379-398.
    • (1993) Wea. Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 379-398
    • Tracton, M.S.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 33
    • 0019704889 scopus 로고
    • Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter
    • Wallace, M. J., and D. S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 784-812.
    • (1981) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.109 , pp. 784-812
    • Wallace, M.J.1    Gutzler, D.S.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.