Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble

Science

Volumn 285, Issue 5433, 1999, Pages 1548-1550

  Krishnamurti, T N ^a   Kishtawal, C M ^a   LaRow, Timothy E ^a   Bachiochi, David R ^a   Zhang, Zhan ^a   Eric Williford, C ^a   Gadgil, Sulochana ^b   Surendran, Sajani ^b  

^a FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b INDIAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE   (India)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ANALYTICAL ERROR; ARTICLE; CLIMATE; FORECASTING; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; NONBIOLOGICAL MODEL; OBSERVATION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASON; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; WEATHER;

EID: 0033520451     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.285.5433.1548     Document Type: Article

References (7)

1. E. J. Lorenz, J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130 (1963).
2. W. L. Gates et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 29 (1991).
3. T. J. Philips, PCMDI Report 18 (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 1994).
4. T. J. Philips, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 1191 (1996).
5. The domains include the globe (87°S to 87°N), tropics (30°S to 30°N), Asian monsoon (30°E to 150°E, 30°S to 40°N), United States (70°W to 125°W, 25°N to 55°N), Europe (0° to 50°E, 30°N to 55°N), the Northern Hemisphere (0° to 87°N), and the Southern Hemisphere (87°S to 0°).
6. During the 2 years 1997 and 1998, three of these models - FSU, GFDL/NCEP, and NOGAPS - incorporated major changes; thus, we could not apply the statistics derived from 1998 to test the performance of the proposed method on the storms of 1997.
7. Supported by the following weather services and research institutions, to whom we are most indebted: AMIP, BMRC, CSIRO, ECMWF, FSU, GFDL, JMA, LMD, MPI, NCEP, NOGAPS, RPN, and UKMO. This research was supported by NASA grant NAG-1199, NASA grant NAG-4729, NOAA grant NA86GP0031, NOAA grant NA77WA0571, NSF grant ATM-9612894, and NSF grant ATM-9710336.