Does the predictability of ENSO depend on the seasonal cycle?

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 55, Issue 21, 1998, Pages 3230-3243

  Flügel, Moritz ^a   Chang, Ping ^a  

^a TEXAS A AND M UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTH ATMOSPHERE; ERROR ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; OSCILLATIONS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

INTERANNUAL OSCILLATIONS; INTERMEDIATE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODELS; SEASONAL CYCLES;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FORECASTING METHOD; SEASONALITY;

EID: 0033232491     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<3230:DTPOED>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Balmaseda, M. A., M. K. Davey, and D. L. T. Anderson, 1995: Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill. J. Climate, 8, 2705-2715.
2. Barnett, T. P., 1984: Prediction of the El Niño 1982-83. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1403-1407.
3. _, N. Graham, M. A. Cane, S. Zebiak, S. Dolan, J. O'Brien, and D. Legler, 1988: On the prediction of the El Niño 1986-1987. Science, 241, 192-196.
4. _, M. Latif, N. Graham, M. Flügel, S. Pazan, and W. White, 1993: ENSO and ENSO-related predictability. Part I: prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate. 6, 1545-1566.
5. Cane, M. A., S. E. Zebiak, and S. C. Dolan, 1986: Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature, 321, 827-832.
6. Chang, P., 1994: A study of the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean using reduced gravity models. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 7725-7741.
7. _, and S. G. Philander, 1994: A coupled ocean-atmosphere instability of relevance to the seasonal cycle. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 3627-3648.
8. _, L. Ji, B. Wang, and T. Li, 1995: Interactions between the seasonal cycle and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 2353-2372.
9. _, _, H. U. and M. Flügel. 1996: Chaotic dynamics versus stochastic processes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Physica D, 98, 301-320.
10. Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, A. J. Busalacchi, and M. A. Cane, 1995: An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting: Implications for predictability. Science, 269, 1699-1702.
11. Chen, Y. Q., D. S. Battisti, T. N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, and E. S. Sarachik, 1997: A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere-ocen model using the singular vector analysis: The role of the annual cycle and the ENSO cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 831-845.
12. Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, 1996: Upper ocean thermal variations in the North Pacific during 1971-1991. J. Climate, 9, 1840-1855.
13. Eckert, C., and M. Latif, 1997: Predictability of a stochastically forced hybrid coupled model of El Niño. J. Climate, 10, 1488-1504.
14. Flügel, M., and P. Chang, 1996: Impact of dynamical and stochastic processes on the predictability of ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23 (16), 2089-2092.
15. Goswami, B. N., and J. Shukla, 1991; Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 4, 3-22.
16. Graham, N. E., 1994; Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results. Climate Dyn., 10, 135-162.
17. _, J. Michaelsen, and T. P. Barnett, 1987: An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. 2, Model results. J. Geophys. Res., 92 (C13), 14 271-14 289.
18. Gu, D., and S. G. H. Philander, 1995: Secular changes of annual and interannual variability in the Tropics during the past century, J. Climate, 8, 864-876.
19. _, and _, 1997: Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics. Science, 275, 805-807.
20. Jacobs, G. A., H. E. Hurlburt, J. C. Kindle, E. J. Metzger, J. L. Mitchell. W. J. Teague, and A. J. Wallcraft, 1994: Decade-scale trans-Pacific propagation and wanning effects of an El Niño anomaly. Nature, 370, 360-363.
21. Jin, F.-E., D. Neelin, and M. Ghil, 1994: El Niño on the devil's staircase: Annual subharmonic steps to chaos. Science, 246, 70-72.
22. _, _, and _, 1996: El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the annual cycle: Subharmonic frequency-locking and apenodicity. Physica D. 98, 442-465.
23. Lauf, M., and M. Flügel, 1991: An investigation of short-range climate predictability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation in the tropocal Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 96, 2661-2673.
24. _, and T. P. Barnett, 1994: Causes of decadak climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science, 266, 634-637.
25. _, A. Sterl, E. Maier-Reimer, and M. M. Junge, 1993: Climate variability in a coupled GCM. Part 1: The tropical Pacific. J. Climate, 6, 5-21.
26. _, R. Kleeman, and C. Eckert, 1997: Grenhouse warming, decadal variability, or El Niño? An attempt to understand the anomalous 1990s. J. Climate, 10, 2221-2239.
27. Lau, N.-C., and M. J. Nath, 1996: The role of the "atmospheric bridge" in linking tropical Pacific ENSO evints to extratropical SST anomalies. J. Climate, 9, 2036-2057.
28. Leetmaa, A., and M. Ji, 1989: Operational hindcasting of the tropical Pacific. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans. 13, 465-490.
29. Lysne, J., P. Chang, and B. Giese: 1997: Impact of the extratropical Pacific on equatorial variability. Grophys. Res. Lett. 24, 2589-2592.
30. Mechoso, C. R., A. W. Robertson, N. Barth, M. K. Davey, P. Delecluse, P. R. Gent, S. Ineson, B. Kirtman, M. Latif, H. Le Treut, T. Nagai, J. D. Neelin, S. G. H. Philander, J. Polcher, P. S. Schopf, T. Stockdale, M. J. Suarez, I. Terray, O. Thual, and J. J. Tribbia, 1995: The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in coupled atmosphere-ocean general-circulation models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2825-2838.
31. Mitchell, T. P., and J. M. Wallace, 1992: On the annual cycle in eqiatproal convection and sea surface temperature. J. Climate 5, 1140-1156.
32. Penland, C., 1996: A stochastic model of IndoPacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Physica D, 98, 534-558.
33. _, and T. Magorian, 1993: Prediction of Niflo 3 sea surface temperatures using linear inverse modiling. J. Climate, 6, 1067-1076.
34. _, and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995a: Error and sensitivity analysis of geophysical eigensystems. J. Climate, 8, 1988-1998.
35. _, and _, 1995b: The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 8, 1999-2024.
36. Philander, S. G. H., D. Gu, D. Halpern, G. Lambert, N.-C. Lau, T. Li, and R. C. Pacanowski, 1996: Why the ITCZ is mostly north of the equator. J. Climate, 9, 2958-2972.
37. Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Nifio. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 354-384.
38. Rosati, A., K. Miyakoda, and R. Gudgel, 1997: The impact of ocean initial conditions on ENSO forecasting with a coupled model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 754-772.
39. Seager, R., S. E. Zebiak, and M. A. Cane, 1988: A model. of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature climatology. J. Geophys. Res., 93 (C2), 1265-1280.
40. Tziperman, E., L. Stone, M. A. Cane, and H. Jarosh, 1994: El Niño chaos: Overlapping of resonances between the seasonal cycle and the Pacific Ocean-atmosphere oscillator. Science, 264, 72-74.
41. Woodruff. S. D., R. J. Slutz, R. L. Jenne, and P. M. Steurer, 1987: A comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 69, 1239-1250.
42. Xie, S.-P., and S. G. H. Philander, 1994: A coupled ocean-atmosphere model of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific. Tellus, 46A, 340-350.
43. Xu, J. S., and H. von Storch, 1990: Principal oscillation patterns - Prediction of the state of ENSO. J. Climate. 3, 1316-1329.
44. Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278.
45. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdccadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate,10, 1004-1020.