Skill of seasonal climate forecasts in Canada using canonical correlation analysis

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 124, Issue 10, 1996, Pages 2370-2385

  Shabbar, Amir ^a   Barnston, Anthony G ^b  

^a ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0000421521     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2370:SOSCFI>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. Barnett, T. P., and R. Preisendorfer, 1987: Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperature determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1825-1850.
2. Barnston, A. G., 1994: Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate. 7, 1513-1564.
3. _, and R. E. Livezey, 1987: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1083-1126.
4. _, and _, 1991: Statistical prediction of January-February mean Northern Hemisphere lower tropospheric climate from the 11-year solar cycle and the Southern Oscillation for west and east QBO phases. J. Climate, 4, 249-262.
5. _, and C. F. Ropelewski, 1992: Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis. J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345.
6. _, and T. M. Smith, 1996: Specification and prediction of global surface temperature and precipitation from global SST using CCA. J. Climate, in press.
7. Chen, W. Y., 1989: Estimate of dynamical predictability from NMC DERF experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1227-1236.
8. Environment Canada, 1995: The state of Canada's climate: Monitoring variability and change. Environment Canada DOE Rep. 95-1, 52 pp. [Available from Atmospheric Environment Service, CARD, 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4 Canada.]
9. Graham, N. E., J. Michaelsen, and T. P. Barnett, 1987a: An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. Part 1: Predictor field characteristics. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 14 251-14 270.
10. _, _, and _, 1987b: An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. Part 2: Model results. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 14271-14289.
11. Halpert, M. S., and C. F. Ropelewski, 1992: Surface temperature patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 5, 577-593.
12. Jenne, R., 1975: Data sets for meteorological research. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR-TN/JA111, 194 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161.]
13. Knox, J. L., K. Higuchi, A. Shabbar, and N. E. Sargent, 1988: Secular variation of Northern Hemisphere 50 kPa geopotential height. J. Climate, 1, 500-511.
14. Livezey, R. E., and W. Y. Chen, 1983: Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 46-59.
15. Mekis, E., and W. D. Hogg, 1996: Creation and analysis of daily precipitation time series. Atmospheric Environment Service Internal Rep. 40 pp. [Available from Atmospheric Environment Service, CARD, 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4 Canada.]
16. Michaelsen, J., 1987: Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 1589-1600.
17. Milton. S. F., 1990: Practical extended-range forecasting using dynamical models. Meteor. Mag., 119, 221-233.
18. Nicholls, N., 1987: The use of canonical correlation analysis to study teleconnections. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 393-399.
19. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1986: North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 2352-2362.
20. _, and _, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the EI Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626.
21. _, and _, 1989: Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 268-284.
22. Shabbar, A., and M. Khandekar, 1996: The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the temperature field over Canada. Atmos.-Ocean, 34, 401-416.
23. _, K. Higuchi, and J. L. Knox, 1990: Regional analysis of Northern Hemisphere 50 kPa geopotential heights from 1946 to 1985. J. Climate, 3, 543-557.
24. Shukla, J., 1985: Predictability. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 28B, Academic Press, 87-123.
25. Skinner, W. R., and D. W. Gullett, 1993: Trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature in Canada during the past century. Climatol. Bull. 27, 63-77.
26. van Loon, H., and R. A. Madden, 1981: The Southern Oscillation. Part I: Global associations with pressure and temperature in northern winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 1150-1162.
27. Van den Dool, H. M., and S. Saha, 1990: Frequency dependence in forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 128-137.