Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Climate Prediction

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Volumn 80, Issue 7, 1999, Pages 1385-1397

  Nicholls, Neville ^a  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY RESEARCH CENTRE   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0001093166     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<1385:CIHACP>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Adams, R. M., K. J. Bryant, B. A. McCarl, D. M. Legler, J. O'Brien, A. Solow, and R. Weiher, 1995: Value of improved long-range weather information. Contemp. Econ. Policy, 13, 10-19.
2. Arkes, H., 1999: Overconfidence in judgmental forecasting. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J. S. Armstrong, Ed., Kluwer, in press.
3. Armstrong, J. S., Ed., 1999: Introduction. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Kluwer, in press.
4. Asch, S. E., 1946: Forming impressions of personality. J. Abnorm. Soc. Psychol., 41, 258-290.
5. Baker, E. J., 1995: Public response to hurricane probability forecasts. Prof. Geogr., 47, 137-147.
6. Baron, J., 1994: Thinking and Deciding. 2d ed. Cambridge University Press, 588 pp.
7. Bazerman, M. H., 1994: Judgement in Managerial Decision Making. 3d ed. Wiley, 226 pp.
8. Cerf, C., and V. Navasky, 1998: The Experts Speak. Villard Books, 445 pp.
9. Changnon, S. A., J. M. Changnon, and D. Changnon, 1995: Uses and applications of climate forecasts for power utilities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 711-720.
10. Dawes, R. M., 1988: Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 346 pp.
11. _, D. Faust, and P. E. Meehl, 1989: Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science, 243, 1668-1674.
12. DeBondt, W., and R. H. Tahler, 1986: Does the stock market overreact? J. Finance, 40, 793-807.
13. Fischhoff, B., 1975: Hindsight ≠ foresight. The effect of outcome knowledge on judgement under uncertainty. J. Exp. Psychol.: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288-299.
14. _, 1994: What forecasts (seem to) mean. Int. J. Forecasting, 10, 387-403.
15. _, P. Slovic, and S. Lichtenstein, 1977: Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. J. Exp. Psychol.: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 552-564.
16. Gigone, D., and R. Hastie, 1997: Proper analysis of the accuracy of group judgments. Psychol. Bull., 121, 149-167.
17. Glantz, M., 1977: The value of a long-range weather forecast for the West African Sahel. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 58, 150-158.
18. Goodie, A. S., and E. Fantino, 1996: Learning to commit or avoid the base-rate error. Nature, 380, 247-249.
19. Grove, W. M., and P. E. Meehl, 1996: Comparative efficiency of information (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical-statistical controversy. Psychol. Public Policy, Law, 2, 293-323.
20. Hammer, G. L., D. P. Holzworth, and R. Stone, 1996: The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region of high climatic variability. Aust. J. Agric. Res., 47, 717-737.
21. Hulme, M., and Coauthors, 1992: Seasonal rainfall forecasting for Africa. Part II - Application and impact assessment. Int. J. Environ. Stud., 40, 103-121.
22. Janis, I. L., 1982: Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Failures. Houghton Mifflin, 351 pp.
23. Jevons, W. S., 1958: The Principles of Science. Dover, 726 pp.; original published 1874 by Macmillian, 943 pp.
24. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, 1982: The psychology of preferences. Sci. Amer., January, 136-142.
25. Kerr, R. A., 1998: Models win big in forecasting El Niño. Science, 280, 522-523.
26. Keynes, J. M., 1935: The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Harcourt Brace, 403 pp.
27. Konold, C., 1989: Informal conceptions of probability. Cognit. Instruction, 6, 59-98.
28. Lamb, P. J., 1981: Do we know what we should be trying to forecast - Climatically? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 62, 1000-1001.
29. Lord, C. G., L. Ross, and M. R. Lepper, 1979: Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence. J. Personality Social Psychol., 37, 2098-2109.
30. Matthews, R. A. J., 1996: Base-rate errors and rain forecasts. Nature, 382, 766.
31. Mjelde, J. W., T. N. Thompson, C. J. Nixon, and P. J. Lamb, 1997: Utilising a farm-level decision model to help prioritise future climate prediction needs. Meteor. Appl., 4, 161-170.
32. Murphy, A. H., 1996: Comments on "Operational omission and misuse of numerical precipitation probability expressions." Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1586-1588.
33. _, and B. G. Brown, 1983a: Forecast terminology: Composition and interpretation of public weather forecast. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 64, 13-22.
34. _, and _, 1983b: Interpretation of some terms and phrases in public weather forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 64, 1283-1289.
35. _, S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R. L. Winkler, 1980: Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 61, 695-701.
36. Nicholls, N., 1999: Impediments to the use of climate predictions. Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems - The Australian Experience, G. Hammer, N. Nicholls, and C. Mitchell, Eds., Kluwer, in press.
37. _, and T. Kestin, 1998: Communicating climate. Climate Change, 40, 417-420.
38. Piattelli-Palmarini, M., 1994: Inevitable Illusions. Wiley, 242 pp.
39. Pielke, R. A., Jr., 1999: Who decides? Forecast and responsibilities in the 1997 Red River flood. Amer. Behav. Sci. Rev., in press.
40. Pious, S., 1993: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making. McGraw-Hill, 302 pp.
41. Pulwarty, R. S., and K. T. Redmond, 1997: Climate and salmon restoration in the Columbia River basin: The role and usability of seasonal forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 381-397.
42. Redelmeier, D. A., and E. Shafir, 1995: Medical decision making in situations that offer multiple alternatives. J. Amer. Med. Assoc., 273, 302-305.
43. Rosenthal, R., and K. L. Fode, 1963: The effect of experimenter bias on the performance of the albino rat. Behav. Sci., 8, 183-189.
44. Russo, J. E., and P. J. H. Schoemaker, 1989: Decision Traps. Doubleday, 281 pp.
45. Sink, S. A., 1995: Determining the public's understanding of precipitation forecasts: Results of a survey. Natl. Wea. Dig., 19, 9-15.
46. Slovic, P., 1987: Perception of risk. Science, 236, 280-285.
47. _, and B. Fischoff, 1977: On the psychology of experimental surprises. J. Exp. Psychol.: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 544-551.
48. Sniezek, J. A., and R. A. Henry, 1989: Accuracy and confidence in group judgement. Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process., 43, 1-28.
49. Stewart, T. R., 1997: Forecast value: Descriptive decision studies. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts, R. W. Katz and A. H. Murphy, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 147-181.
50. _, 1999: Improving reliability of judgmental forecasts. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J. S. Armstrong, Ed., Kluwer, in press.
51. _, K. F. Heideman, W. F. Moninger, and P. Reagan-Cirincione, 1992: Effects of improved information on the components of skill in weather forecasting. Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process., 53, 107-134.
52. Trenberth, K. E., 1997: Short-term climate variations: Recent accomplishments and issues for future progress. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1081-1096.
53. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1974: Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131.
54. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1981: The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453-458.
55. Vislocky, R. L., J. M. Fritsch, and S. N. DiRienzo, 1995: Operational omission and misuse of numerical precipitation probability expressions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 49-52.
56. Wason, P. C., 1960: On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task. Quart. J. Experimental Psychology, 12, 129-140.
57. Weinstein, N. D., 1989: Optimistic biases about personal risks. Science, 246, 1232-1233.