A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

Volumn 103, Issue C7, 1998, Pages 14375-14393

  Latif, M ^a   Anderson, D ^b   Barnett, T ^c   Cane, M ^d   Kleeman, R ^e   Leetmaa, A ^f   O'Brien, J ^g   Rosati, A ^h   Schneider, E ⁱ  

^a MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^d Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University   (United States)

^e BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY RESEARCH CENTRE   (Australia)

^f W NMC2   (United States)

^g FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^h PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

ⁱ Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studs   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FORECASTING;

EID: 0032577947     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21699291     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/97jc03413     Document Type: Article

References (116)

1. Balmaseda, M. A., D. L. T. Anderson, and M. K. Davey, ENSO prediction using a dynamical ocean model coupled to statistical atmospheres, Tellus, Ser. A, 46, 497-511, 1994.
2. Balmaseda, M. A., M. K. Davey, and D. L. T. Anderson, Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill, J. Clim., 8, 2705-2715, 1995.
3. Barnett, T. P., Interaction of the monsoon and Pacific tradewind system at interannual timescales, I, The equatorial zone, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 756-773, 1983.
4. Barnett, T. P., Interaction of the monsoon and Pacific tradewind system at interannual timescales, II, The tropical band, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 2380-2387, 1985.
5. Barnett, T. P., Monte Carlo climate forecasting, J. Clim., 8, 1005-1022, 1994.
6. Barnett, T. P., and K. Hasselmann, Techniques of linear prediction, with applications to oceanic and atmospheric fields in the tropical Pacific, Rev. Geophys., 17, 949-968, 1979.
7. Barnett, T. P., and R. Preisendorfer, Origins and levels of monthly forecast skill for United States surface air-temperature determined by canonical correlation analysis, Mon Weather Rev., 115, 1825-1850, 1987.
8. Barnett, T. P., N. Graham, M. Cane, S. Zebiak, S. Dolan, J. O'Brien, and D. Legler, On the prediction of the El Niño of 1986-1987, Science, 241, 192-196, 1988.
9. Barnett, T. P., L. Dümenil, U. Schlese, E. Roeckner, and M. Latif, The effects of Eurasian snow cover on regional and global climate variations, J. Atmos. Sci., 6, 661-685, 1989.
10. Barnett, T. P., M. Latif, E. Kirk, and E. Roeckner, On ENSO physics, J. Clim., 4, 487-515, 1991.
11. Barnett, T. P., M. Latif, N. Graham, M. Flugel, S. Pazan, and W. White, ENSO and ENSO related predictability, I, Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Clim., 6, 1545-1566, 1993.
12. Barnett, T. P., L. Bengtsson, K. Arpe, M. Flugel, N. Graham, J. Ritchie, E. Roeckner, U. Schlese, U. Schulzweida, and M. Tyree, Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies, Tellus, Ser. A, 46, 398-418, 1994.
13. Barnston, A. G., and C. F. Ropelewski, Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis, J. Clim., 5, 1316-1345, 1992.
14. Barnston, A. G., et al., Long-lead seasonal forecasts - Where do we stand?, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 75, 2097-2114, 1994.
15. Battisti, D. S., Dynamics and thermodynamics of a warming event in a coupled tropical atmosphere ocean model, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2889-2929, 1988.
16. Battisti, D. S., and A. C. Hirst, Interannual variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere model: Influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and non-linearity, J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 1687-1712, 1989.
17. Battisti, D. S., and E. S. Sarachik, Understanding and predicting ENSO, U.S. Natl. Rep. Int. Union Geod. Geophys. 1991-1994, Rev. Geophys., 33, 1367-1376, 1995.
18. Bengtsson, L., U. Schleese, E. Roeckner, M. Latif, T. P. Barnett, and N. Graham, A two tiered approach to climate forecasting, Science, 261, 1026-1029, 1993.
19. Bjerknes, J., Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific, Mon. Weather Rev., 97, 163-172, 1969.
20. Blanke, B., J. D. Neelin, and D. Gutzler, Estimating the effect of stochastic windstress forcing on ENSO irregularity, J. Clim., 10, 1473-1486, 1997.
21. Blumenthal, M. B., Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Clim., 4, 766-784, 1991.
22. Busulacchi, A. J., K. Takeuchi, and J. J. O'Brien, Interannual variability of the equatorial Pacific revisited, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 7531-7562, 1983.
23. Cane, M. A., Forecasting El Niño with a geophysical model, in Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies, edited by M. H. Glantz, R. W. Katz, and N. Nicholls, pp. 345-369, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1991.
24. Cane, M. A., and E. S. Sarachik, The response of a linear baroclinic equatorial ocean to periodic forcing, J. Mar. Res., 39, 651-693, 1981.
25. Cane, M. A., S. E. Zebiak, and S. C. Dolan, Experimental forecasts of El Niño, Nature, 321, 827-832, 1986.
26. Cane, M. A., M. Muennich, and S. E. Zebiak, A study of self-excited oscillations of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system, I, Linear analysis, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1562-1577, 1990.
27. Chang, P., B. Wang, T. Li, and L. Ji, Interactions between the seasonal cycle and the Southern Oscillation: Frequency entrainment and chaos in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21, 2817-2820, 1994.
28. Chao, Y., and S. G. H. Philander, On the structure of the Southern Oscillation, J. Clim., 6, 450-469, 1993.
29. Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, A. J. Busalacchi, and M. A. Cane, An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting, Science, 269, 1699-1702, 1995.
30. Chen, Y.-Q., D. S. Battisti, T. N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, and E. S. Sarachik, A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere/ocean model using singular vector analysis: The role of the annual cycle and the ENSO cycle, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 831-845, 1997.
31. Davey, M. K., S. Ineson, and M. A. Balmaseda, Simulation and hindcasts of tropical Pacific Ocean interannual variability, Tellus, Ser. A, 46, 433-445, 1994.
32. Davis, R., Technique for statistical analysis and prediction of geophysical fluid systems, Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn., 8, 245-277, 1977.
33. Delecluse, P., J. Servain, C. Levy, K. Arpe, and L. Bengtsson, On the connection between the 1984 Atlantic warm event and the 1982-83 ENSO, Tellus, Ser. A, 46, 448-464, 1994.
34. Derber, J., and A. Rosati, A global oceanic data assimilation system, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 19, 1333-1347, 1989.
35. Eckert, C., and M. Latif, Predictability of a stochastically forced hybrid coupled model of El Niño, J. Clim., 10, 1488-1504, 1997.
36. Fraedrich, K., An ENSO impact on Europe? A review, Tellus, Ser. A, 46, 541-552, 1994.
37. Fraedrich, K., and N. R. Smith, Combining predictive schemes in long-range forecasting, J. Clim., 2, 291-294, 1989.
38. Glantz, M. H., R. W. Katz, and N. Nicholls (Eds.), Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies, 535 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1991.
39. Goswami, B., and J. Shukla, Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Clim., 4, 3-22, 1991.
40. Graham, N. E., and W. B. White, The El Niño cycle: A natural oscillator of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system, Science, 240, 1293-1302, 1988.
41. Graham, N. E., J. Michaelson, and T. P. Barnett, An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models, I, Precursor field characteristics, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 14,251-14,270, 1987a.
42. Graham, N. E., J. Michaelson, and T. P. Barnett, An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models, II, Model results, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 14,271-14,289, 1987b.
43. Graham, N. E., T. P. Barnett, and M. Latif, Considerations of the predictability of ENSO with a low-order coupled model, TOGA Notes, 7, 11-15, 1992.
44. Gu, D., and S. G. H. Philander, A theory for decadal climate fluctuations, Science, 275, 805-807, 1997.
45. Hahn, D. J., and J. Shukla, An apparent relationship between Eurasian snowcover and Indian monsoon rainfall, J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 2461-2462, 1976.
46. Hasselmann, K., PIPs and POPs: The reduction of complex dynamical systems using principal interaction and principal oscillation patterns, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 11,015-11,021, 1988.
47. Hasselmann, K., and T. P. Barnett, Techniques of linear prediction for systems with periodic statistics, J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 2275-2283, 1981.
48. Horel, J. D., and J. M. Wallace, Planetary scale atmospheric phenomenon associated with the Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 109, 813-829, 1981.
49. Hotelling, H., Relations between two sets of variates, Biometrika, 28, 321-377, 1935.
50. Hunt, B. G., S. E. Zebiak, and M. A. Cane, Experimental predictions of climatic variability for lead times of twelve months, Int. J. Climatol., 14, 507-526, 1994.
51. Inoue, M., and J. J. O'Brien, A forecasting model for the onset of a major El Niño, Mon. Weather Rev., 112, 2326-2337, 1984.
52. Ji, M., and A. Leetmaa, Impact of data assimilation on ocean initialisation and El Niño prediction, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 742-753, 1997.
53. Ji, M., A. Kumar, and A. Leetmaa, A multiseason climate forecast system at the National Meteorological Center, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 75, 569-577, 1994a.
54. Ji, M., A. Kumar, and A. Leetmaa, An experimental coupled forecast system at the National Meteorological Center: Some early results, Tellus, Ser. A, 46, 398-419, 1994b.
55. Ji, M., A. Leetmaa, and V. E. Kousky, Coupled model forecasts of ENSO during the 1980s and 1990s at the National Meteorological Center, J. Clim., 9, 3105-3120, 1996.
56. Jin, F.-F., J. D. Neelin, and M. Ghil, El Niño on the Devil's staircase: Annual subharmonic steps to chaos, Science, 264, 70-72, 1994.
57. Jin, F.-F., J. D. Neelin, and M. Ghil, El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the annual cycle: Subharmonic frequency locking and aperiodicity, Physica D, 98, 442-465, 1996.
58. Kepenne, C. L., and M. Ghil, Adaptive filtering and the Southern Oscillation Index, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 20,449-20,454, 1992.
59. Kerr, R. A., Official forecasts pushed out to a year ahead, Science, 266, 1940-1941, 1994.
60. Kessler, W. S., Observations of long Rossby waves in the northern tropical Pacific, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 5183-5217, 1990.
61. Kessler, W. S., Can reflected extra-tropical Rossby waves drive ENSO?, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 21, 444-452, 1991.
62. Kirtman, B. P., J. Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu, and E. K. Schneider, Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled Tropical Ocean/Global Atmosphere system, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 789-808, 1996.
63. Kleeman, R., On the dependence of hindcast skill on ocean thermodynamics in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Clim., 6, 2012-2033, 1993.
64. Kleeman, R., and A. M. Moore, A theory for the limitation of ENSO predictability due to stochastic atmospheric transients, J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 753-767, 1997.
65. Kleeman, R., and S. B. Power, Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise, Tellus, Ser. A., 46, 529-540, 1994.
66. Kleeman, R., A. M. Moore, and N. R. Smith, Assimilation of subsurface thermal data into a simple ocean model for the initialisation of an intermediate tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere forecast model, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 3103-3113, 1995.
67. Kleeman, R., R. A. Colman, N. R. Smith, and S. B. Power, A recent change in the mean state of the Pacific basin climate: Observational evidence and atmospheric and oceanic responses, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 20,483-20,499, 1996.
68. Latif, M., Tropical ocean circulation experiments, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 17, 247-263, 1987.
69. Latif, M., and T. P. Barnett, Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America, Science, 266, 634-637, 1994.
70. Latif, M., and T. Barnett, Interactions of the tropical oceans, J. Clim., 8, 952-964, 1995.
71. Latif, M., and M. Flügel, An investigation of short-range climate predictability in the tropical Pacific, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 2661-2673, 1991.
72. Latif, M., and N. E. Graham, How much predictive skill is contained in the thermal structure of an OGCM?, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 22, 951-962, 1992.
73. Latif, M., A. Sterl, E. Maier-Reimer, and M. M. Junge, Climate variability in a coupled GCM, I, The tropical Pacific, J. Clim., 6, 5-21, 1993a.
74. Latif, M., A. Sterl, E. Maier-Reimer, and M. M. Junge, Structure and predictability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, J. Clim., 6, 700-708, 1993b.
75. Latif, M., T. P. Barnett, M. A. Cane, M. Flügel, N. E. Graham, H. von Storch, J.-S. Xu, and S. E. Zebiak, A review of ENSO prediction studies, Clim. Dyn., 9, 167-179, 1994.
76. Latif, M., A. Groetzner, and H. Frey, El Hermanito: El Ninõ's over-looked little brother in the Atlantic, MPI Rep. 196, Max-Planck-Inst, Hamburg, Germany, 1996.
77. Latif, M., R. Kleeman, and C. Eckert, Greenhouse warming, decadal variability, or El Niño? An attempt to understand the anomalous 1990s, J. Clim., 10, 2221-2239, 1997.
78. Lau, N. C., Modelling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed El Niños 1962-1976, Mon. Weather Rev., 113, 1970-1996, 1985.
79. McCreary, J. P., A model for tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 370-387, 1983.
80. McPhaden, M., et al., Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere observing system: A decade of progress, J. Geophys. Res., this issue.
81. Meehl, G., The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean region, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 27-50, 1987.
82. Muennich, M., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, A study of self-excited oscillations of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system, II, Nonlinear cases, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 1238-1248, 1991.
83. Neelin, J. D., M. Latif, and F.-F. Jin, Dynamics of coupled ocean-atmosphere models: The tropical problem, Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 26, 617-659, 1994.
84. Neelin, J. D., D. S. Battisti, A. C. Hirst, F.-F. Jin, Y. Wakata, T. Yamagata, and S. E. Zebiak, ENSO theory, J. Geophys. Res., this issue.
85. Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies, J., Clim., 8, 1999-2024, 1995.
86. Philander, S. G. H., and A. D. Seigel, Simulation of El Niño of 1982-83, in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models, edited by J. Nihoul, pp. 517-541, Elsevier, New York, 1985.
87. Philander, S. G. H., R. C. Pacanowski, N. C. Lau, and M. J. Nath, Simulation of ENSO with a global atmospheric GCM coupled to a high resolution tropical Pacific Ocean GCM, J. Clim., 5, 308-329, 1992.
88. Rasmussen, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño, Mon. Weather Rev., 110, 354-384, 1982.
89. Ropelewski, R. W., and M. S. Halpert, Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation, J. Clim., 2, 594-614, 1989.
90. Rosati, A., R. Gudgel, and K. Miyakoda, Decadal analysis produced from an ocean data assimilation model, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 2206-2228, 1995.
91. Rosati, A., K. Miyakoda, and R. Gudgel, The impact of ocean initial conditions on ENSO forecasting with a coupled model, Mon. Weather Rev., 5, 754-772, 1997.
92. Schneider, E. K., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, Ocean wave dynamics and El Niño, J. Clim., 8, 2415-2439, 1995.
93. Schopf, P. S., and M. J. Suarez, Vacillations in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 549-566, 1988.
94. Servain, J., Simple climatic indices for the tropical Atlantic Ocean and some applications, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 15,137-15,146, 1991.
95. Shukla, J., and B. P. Kirtman, Predictability and error growth in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, COLA Rep. 24, 13 pp., Center for Ocean-Land-Atmos. Stud., Inst. of Global Environ, and Soc., Calverton, 1996.
96. Suarez, M. J., and P. S. Schopf, A delayed action oscillator for ENSO, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 3283-3287, 1988.
97. Tang, B., Periods of linear development of the ENSO cycle and POP forecast experiments, J. Clim., 8, 682-691, 1995.
98. Trenberth, K. E., G. W. Branstator, D. Karoly, A. Kumar, N.-C. Lau, and C. Ropelewski, Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., this issue.
99. Tzipermann, E., L. Stone, M. A. Cane, and H. Jarosh, El Niño chaos: Overlapping of resonances between the annual cycle and the Pacific Ocean-atmosphere oscillator, Science, 264, 72-74, 1994.
100. van Loon, H., The Southern Oscillation, III, Associations with the trades and with the trough in the westerlies of the South Pacific Ocean, Mon. Weather Rev., 112, 947-954, 1984.
101. van Loon, H., and D. J. Shea, The Southern Oscillation, IV, The precursors south of 15 degrees south to the extremes of the oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 113, 2063-2074, 1985.
102. Wakata, Y., and E. S. Sarachik, On the role of equatorial ocean modes in the ENSO cycle, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 21, 434-443, 1991.
103. Walker, G. T., Correlation in seasonal variations in weather, III, A preliminary study of world weather, Mem. Indian Meteorol. Dep., 24, 75-131, 1923.
104. Walker, G. T., Correlation in seasonal variations in weather, IV, A further study of world weather, Mem. Indian Meteorol. Dep., 24, 275-332, 1924.
105. Wallace, J. M., E. M. Rasmusson, T. P. Mitchell, V. E. Kousky, E. S. Sarachik, and H. von Storch, On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Lessons from TOGA, J. Geophys. Res., this issue.
106. Ward, M. N., and C. K. Folland, Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the north Nordeste of Brazil using eigenvectors of sea-surface temperature, Int. J. Climatol., 11, 711-743, 1991.
107. Webster, P. J., and S. Yang, Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 118, 877-925, 1992.
108. White, W. B., S. E. Pazan, and M. Inoue, Hindcast/forecast of ENSO events based on the redistribution of observed and model heat content in the western tropical Pacific, 1964-86, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 17, 264-280, 1987.
109. Wright, P. B., J. M. Wallace, T. P. Mitchell, and C. Deser, Correlation structure of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, J. Clim., 1, 609-625, 1988.
110. Wu, D.-H., D. L. T. Anderson, and M. K. Davey, ENSO prediction exoeriments using a simole ocean-atmosohere model, Tellus, Ser. A, 46, 465-480, 1994.
111. Wyrtki, K., Fluctuations of the dynamic topography in the Pacific Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 5, 450-459, 1975.
112. Wyrtki, K., Water displacements in the Pacific and the genesis of the El Niño cycles, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 7129-7132, 1985.
113. Xu, J.-S., and H. von Storch, Principal oscillation pattern: Prediction of the state of ENSO, J. Clim., 3, 1316-1329, 1990.
114. Zebiak, S. E., Air-sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region, J. Clim., 6, 1567-1586, 1993.
115. Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2262-2278, 1987.
116. Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, Natural climate variability in a coupled model, in Greenhouse Gas Induced Climatic Change: Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations, edited by M. E. Schlesinger, pp. 457-470, Elsevier, New York, 1991.