Towards the prediction of the East Africa short rains based on sea-surface temperature-atmosphere coupling

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 18, Issue 9, 1998, Pages 975-997

  Mutai, C C ^a   Ward, M N ^b,c   Colman, A W ^b  

^a KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT   (Kenya)

^b MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING METHOD; RAINFALL;

(EAST); AFRICA;

EID: 0032423954     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(199807)18:9<975::aid-joc259>3.0.co;2-u     Document Type: Article

References (73)

1. Afifi, A.A. and Azen, S.P. 1979. Statistical Analysis. A Computer Oriented Approach, 2 edn, Academic Press, New York, 442 pp.
2. Barnett, T.P. and Preisendorfer, R.W. 1987. 'Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis', Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1825-1850.
3. Barnett, T.P., Latif, M., Graham, N., Flugel, M., Pazane, S. and White, W. 1993. 'ENSO and ENSO related predictability. Part I: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model', J. Climate, 6, 1545-1566.
4. Barnston, A.G. 1994. 'Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere', J. Climate, 7, 1513-1564.
5. Barnston, A.G. and Ropelewski, C.F. 1992. 'Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis', J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345.
6. Beltrando, G. 1990. 'Space-time variability of rainfall in April and October-November over East Africa during the period 1932-1983', Int. J. Climatol., 10, 691-702.
7. Beltrando, G. and Camberlin, P. 1993. 'Interannual variability of rainfall in the eastern Horn of Africa and indicators of atmospheric circulation', Int. J. Climatol., 13, 533-546.
8. Bottomley, M., Folland, C.K., Hsiung, J., Newell, R.E. and Parker, D.E. 1990. Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (COSTA). A joint project of the Meteorological Office/Massachussetts Institute of Technology Project. Project supported by US Department of Energy, US National Science Foundation and US Office of Naval Research. HMSO, London, 20 + iv pp, and 313 plates.
9. Bjerknes, J. 1966. 'A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature', Tellus, 18, 820-829.
10. Brancovic, C., Palmer, T.N. and Ferranti, L. 1994. 'Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations', J. Climate, 7, 217-237.
11. Cadet, D.L. and Beltrando, B. 1987. Relationship Between Surface Fields over the Indian Ocean and Rainfall over East Africa, Indian Ocean Report of third session of the SCOR-TOC/CCCO Indian Climate studies Panel, Vacoas, Mauritius, 6-10 April 1987.
12. Cadet, D.L. and Diehl, B.C. 1984. 'Interannual variability of surface fields over the Indian Ocean during recent decades', Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1921-1935.
13. Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E. and Dolan, S.C. 1986. 'Experimental forecast of El Niño', Nature, 321, 827-832.
14. Cane, M.A., Eshel, G. and Buckland, R.W. 1994. 'Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature', Nature, 370, 204-205.
15. Farmer, G. 1988. 'Seasonal forecasting of the Kenya coast short rains, 1901-1984', J. Climatol., 8, 489-497.
16. Folland, C.K., Palmer, T.N. and Parker, D.E. 1986. 'Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea surface temperature, 1901-85', Nature, 320, 602-607.
17. Folland, C.K., Owen, J., Ward, M.N. and Colman, A. 1991. 'Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel region using empirical and dynamical methods', J. Forecast., 10, 21-56.
18. Folland, C.K. and Parker, D.E. 1995. 'Correction of instrumental biases in historical sea-surface temperature data', Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 319-367.
19. Fremming, D. 1970. Notes on an easterly disturbances affecting East Africa 5-7 September 1967, East Africa Meteorological Department Technical Memo, no. 13.
20. Gilman. D.L. 1986. 'Expressing uncertainty in long-range forecasting', in Roads, J.O. (ed.) Namias Symposium, 22 October 1985, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Ref. series, 86(17), 174-187.
21. Graham. N.E. 1994. 'Prediction of rainfall in Northeast Brazil for Mar-Apr-May 1994 using an atmospheric GCM with persisted SST anomalies', Exp. Long-Lead Forecast Bull., NOAA, 3(1), 12-14.
22. Graham, N.E., Michaelsen. J. and Barnett, T.P. 1987. 'An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. Part 2. Model results', J. Geophys. Res., 92(C13), 14271-14289.
23. Graham, N.E., Barnett, T.P., Wilde, R., Ponater, M. and Schubert, S. 1994. 'On the roles of tropical and midlatitude SSTs in forcing interannual to interdecadal variability in the winter Northern Hemisphere circulation', J. Climate, 7, 1416-1441.
24. Hastenrath, S. 1984. 'Interannual variability and annual cycle. Mechanisms of circulation and climate in the Tropical Atlantic Sector', Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1097-1107.
25. Hastenrath, S. 1987. 'Predictability of Java monsoon rainfall anomalies: A case study', J. Climatol. Appl. Meteorol., 26, 133-141.
26. Hastenrath, S. 1988. 'Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall: Further exploration', J. Climate, 1, 298-304.
27. Hastenrath, S. 1995. 'Recent advances in tropical climate prediction', J. Climate, 8, 1519-1532.
28. Hastenrath, S., Nicklis, A. and Greischar, L. 1993. 'Atmospheric mechanisms of climate anomalies in the western Equatorial Indian Ocean', J. Geophys. Res., 98(C11), 20219-20235.
29. Hutchinson, P. 1992. 'The Southern Oscillation and prediction of 'Der' season rainfall in Somalia', J. Climate, 5, 525-531.
30. Hulme, M. 1992. 'Rainfall changes in Africa: 1931-60 to 1961-90', Int. J. Climatol., 12, 685-699.
31. Hulme, M. 1994. 'Validation of large-scale precipitation fields in general circulation models', in Desbois, M. and Desalmand, F. (eds.), Global Precipitation and Climate Change, NATO ASI Series, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 387-406, 466 pp.
32. Ji, M., Kumar, A. and Leetmaa, A. 1994. 'An experimental coupled forecast system at the National Meteorological Center: Some early results', Tellus, 46A, 398-418.
33. Jolliffe, I.T. 1986. Principal Component Analysis, Springer Series in Statistics, Berlin, 271 pp.
34. Jolliffe, I.T. 1995. 'Rotation of principal components: choice of normalization constraints', J. Appl. Statistics, 22, 29-35.
35. Kiladis, G.N. and Diaz H.F. 1989. 'Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes of the Southern Oscillation', J. Climate, 2, 1069-1090.
36. Krishnamurti, T.N. 1961. 'The subtropical jetstream of winter', J. Meteorol., 18, 172-191.
37. Krishnamurti, T.N., Kanamitsu, M., Koss, W.J. and Lee, J.D. 1973. 'Tropical east-west circulation during the northern winter', J. Atmos. Sci., 30, 780-787.
38. Kumar, A., Hoerling, M., Ji, M., Leetmaa, A. and Sardeshmukh, P. 1996. 'Assessing a GCM's suitability for making seasonal predictions', J. Climate, 9, 115-129.
39. Lau, N.-C. 1985. 'Modelling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed El Niños in 1962-76', Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1970-1996.
40. Lindzen, R.S. and Nigam, S. 1987. 'On the role of sea surface temperature gradients in forcing low-level winds and convergence in the tropics', J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2418-2436.
41. Livezey, R.E. 1995. 'The evaluation of forecasts', in von Storch, H. and Navarra, A. (eds.), Statistical Applications in Climatology, Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp. 177-196.
42. Livezey, R.E., Barnston, A.G. and Neumeister, B.K. 1990. 'Mixed analog/persistence prediction of seasonal mean temperatures for the USA', Int. J. Climatol., 10, 329-340.
43. Meehl, G.A. 1994. 'Coupled land-ocean-atmosphere processes and South Asia monsoon variability', Science, 266, 263-267.
44. Mukabana, J.R. and Pielke, R.A. 1991. 'Numerical simulation of the effects of the monsoon winds on the weather patterns over Kenya: A case study during the 'long rains' season', 9th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, October 14-18, 1991, American Meteorological Society, Denver, CO.
45. Neelin, J.D. and Held, I.M. 1987. 'Modeling tropical convergence based on the moist static energy budget', Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 3-12.
46. Nicholls, N. 1983. 'Predicting Indian Monsoon rainfall from sea surface temperature in Indonesia-North Australia area', Nature, 306, 576-577.
47. Nicholls, N. 1984. 'The stability of empirical long-range forecast techniques: A case study', J. Climate Appl. Meteorol., 23, 143-147.
48. Nicholls, N. 1989. 'Sea-surface temperatures and Australian winter rainfall', J. Climate, 2, 965-973.
49. Nicholson, S.E. 1986. 'The spatial coherence of African rainfall anomalies: Interhemispheric teleconnections', J. Climate Appl. Meteorol., 25, 1365-1381.
50. Nicholson, S.E. and Entekhabi, D. 1986. 'The quasi-periodic behavior of rainfall variability in Africa and its relationship to the Southern Oscillation', Arch. Meteor. Geoph. Biokl., A34, 311-348.
51. Nicholson, S.E. and Entekhabi, D. 1987. 'Rainfall variability in Equatorial and Southern Africa: Relationship with sea-surface temperature along the southwest coast of Africa', J. Appl. Meteorol. Climate, 26, 561-578.
52. Nyenzi, B.S. 1990. 'An analysis of the interannual variability of rainfall over East Africa', The Second Technical Conference on Weather Forecasting in Eastern and Southern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya, 3-7 September 1990, pp. 30-41.
53. Ogallo, L.J. 1988. 'Relationship between seasonal rainfall in East Africa and the Southern Oscillation', J. Climatol., 8, 34-43.
54. Ogallo, L.J. 1989. 'The spatial and temporal patterns of the East African seasonal rainfall derived from principal component analysis'. Int. J. Climatol., 9, 145-167.
55. Ogallo, L.J., Janowiak, J.E. and Halpert, M.S. 1989. 'Teleconnection between seasonal rainfall over East Africa and global sea surface temperature anomalies', J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn, 66, 807-821.
56. Okeyo, A.E. 1989. 'The impact of Lake Victoria on the convective activities over the Kenya Highlands', Short and Medium-range Numerical Weather Prediction, Collection of papers presented at the WMO/IUGG NWP Symposium Tokyo, 4-8 August 1986, pp. 689-695.
57. Palmer, T.N. 1986. 'Influence of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans on Sahel rainfall', Nature, 322, 251-253.
58. Palmer, T.N. and Anderson, D.L.T. 1994. 'The prospects for seasonal forecasting - A review paper', Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 755-793.
59. Parker, D.E., Holland, C.K. and Ward, M.N. 1988. 'Sea surface temperature anomaly patterns and prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa', in Gregory, S. (ed), Recent Climate Change, Belhaven, London, pp. 166-178.
60. Parthasarathy, B. and Pant, G.B. 1985. 'Seasonal relationships between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation', J. Climatol., 5, 369-378.
61. Rasmusson, E.M. and Carpenter, T.H. 1982. 'Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño', Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 354-384.
62. Richman, M.B. 1986. 'Rotation of principal components', J. Climatol., 6, 293-335.
63. Ropelewski, C.F. and Halpert, M.S. 1987. 'Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation', Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626.
64. Ropelewski, C.F. and Halpert, M.S. 1989. 'Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation', J. Climate, 2, 268-284.
65. Rowell, D.P., Ininda, J.M. and Ward, M.N. 1994. 'The impacts of global sea surface temperature patterns on seasonal rainfall in East Africa', Proceedings International Conference on Monsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May 1994, WMO/WCRP no. 3.
66. Rowell, D.P., Folland, C.K., Maskell, K. and Ward, M.N. 1995. 'Variability of summer rainfall over tropical North Africa (1906-92): Observations and modelling', Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 669-704.
67. Rowntree, P.R. 1972. 'The influence of tropical east Pacific Ocean temperatures on the atmosphere', Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 290-321.
68. Stern, W. and Miyakoda, K. 1995. 'Feasibility of seasonal forecasts inferred from multiple GCM simulations', J. Climate, 8, 1071-1085.
69. Walker, G.T. and Bliss, E.W. 1932. 'World weather V', Mem. R. Soc., 4, 53-84.
70. Ward, M.N. and Folland, C.K. 1991. 'Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the North Nordeste of Brazil using eigenvectors of sea-surface temperature', Int. J. Climatol., 11, 711-743.
71. Ward, M.N., Folland, C.K., Maskell, K., Colman, A.W., Rowell, D.P. and Lane, K.B. 1993. 'Experimental seasonal forecasting of tropical rainfall at the UK Meteorological Office', in Shukla, J. (ed), Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 197-216.
72. Ward, M.N. and Hoskins, B.J. 1996. 'Near-surface wind over the global ocean 1949-88', J. Climate, 9, 1877-1895.
73. Woodruff, S.D., Slutz, R.J., Jenne, R.L. and Steurer, P.M. 1987. 'A comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set', Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 68, 1239-1250.