Building models for marketing decisions: Past, present and future

International Journal of Research in Marketing

Volumn 17, Issue 2-3, 2000, Pages 105-126

  Leeflang, Peter S H ^a   Wittink, Dick R ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GRONINGEN   (Netherlands)

^b YALE SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT   (United States)

Author keywords

Implementation; Model building process; Models; New marketing

Indexed keywords

EID: 0000083133     PISSN: 01678116     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/s0167-8116(00)00008-2     Document Type: Article

References (151)

1. Abe M. A nonparametric density estimation method for brand choice using scanner data. Marketing Science. 14:1995;300-325.
2. Abraham, M.M., Lodish, L.M., 1989. PROMOTIONSCAN: A system for improving promotion productivity for retailers and manufacturers using scanner store and household panel data. Working Paper #89.007. Marketing Department, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
3. Abraham M.M., Lodish L.M. Getting the most out of advertising and promotion. Harvard Business Review. 68:1990;50-60.
4. Ailawadi K.L., Gedenk K., Neslin S.A. Heterogeneity and purchase event feedback in choice models: An empirical analysis with implications for model building. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 16:1999;177-198.
5. Albers S. A framework for analysis of sources of profit contribution variance between actual and plan. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 15:1998;109-122.
6. Assmus G., Farley J.U., Lehmann D.R. How advertising affects sales: Meta-analysis of econometric results. Journal of Marketing Research. 21:1984;153-158.
7. Balasubramanian S.K., Gupta S., Kamakura W.A., Wedel M. Modeling large data sets in marketing. Statistica Neerlandica. 52:1998;303-323.
8. Bass F.M. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Science. 15:1969;215-227.
9. Bass F.M., Wind J. Introduction to special issue: Empirical generalizations in marketing. Marketing Science. 14:1995;G1-G5.
10. Besanko D., Gupta S., Jain D.C. Logit demand estimation under competitive pricing behavior: An equilibrium framework. Management Science. 44:1998;1533-1547.
11. Blattberg R.C., Hoch S.J. Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model + 50% manager. Management Science. 36:1990;887-899.
12. Blattberg R.C., Neslin S.A. Sales Promotions: Concepts, Methods and Strategies. 1990;Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
13. Blattberg R.C., Neslin S.A. Sales promotions. Eliashberg J., Lilien G.L. Handbook in Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 5: Marketing. 1993;553-609 North-Holland, Amsterdam.
14. Blattberg R.C., Briesch R., Fox E.J. How promotions work. Marketing Science. 14:1995;G122-G132.
15. Bodapati, A.V., Gupta, S., 1999. Recovering latent class segmentation structure from store scanner data. Research Paper, Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.
16. Brodie R.J., de Kluyver C.A. Attraction versus linear and multiplicative market share models: An empirical evaluation. Journal of Marketing Research. 21:1984;194-201.
17. Brodie R.J., Bonfrer A., Cutler J. Do managers overreact to each others' promotional activity? Further empirical evidence. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 13:1996;379-387.
18. Brown A.A., Hulswit F.L., Ketelle J.D. A study of sales operations. Operations Research. 4:1956;296-308.
19. Bucklin R.E., Gupta S. Commercial use of UPC scanner data: Industry and academic perspectives. Marketing Science. 18:1999;247-273.
20. Bucklin R.E., Lehmann D.R., Little J.D.C. From decision support to decision automation: A 2020 vision. Marketing Letters. 9:1998;234-246.
21. Bult J.R., Wansbeek T.J. Optimal selection for direct mail. Marketing Science. 14:1995;378-394.
22. Bult J.R., Wittink D.R. Estimating and validating asymmetric heterogeneous loss functions applied to health care fund raising. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 13:1996;215-226.
23. Bult J.R., van der Scheer H., Wansbeek T.J. Interaction between target and mailing characteristics in direct marketing, with an application to health care fund raising. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 14:1997;301-308.
24. Chatfield C., Ehrenberg A.S.C., Goodhardt G.J. Progress on a simplified model of stationary purchasing behavior. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 79:1966;317-367.
25. Chen Y., Hess J.D., Wilcox R.T., Zhang Z.J. Accounting profits versus marketing profits: A relevant metric for category management. Marketing Science. 18:1999;208-229.
26. Chintagunta P.K. Estimating a multinomial probit model of brand choice using the method of simulated moments. Marketing Science. 11:1992;386-407.
27. Christen M., Gupta S., Porter J.C., Staelin R., Wittink D.R. Using market-level data to understand promotion effects in a nonlinear model. Journal of Marketing Research. 34:1997;322-334.
28. Cooper L.G., Nakanishi M. Market-Share Analysis: Evaluating Competitive Marketing Effectiveness. 1988;Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA.
29. Cyert R.M., March J.G. A Behavioral Theory of the Firm. 1963;Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
30. Dearden J.A., Lilien G.L., Yoon E. Marketing and production capacity strategy for non-differentiated products: Winning and losing at the capacity cycle game. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 16:1999;57-74.
31. Dekimpe M.G., Hanssens D.M. The persistence of marketing effects on sales. Marketing Science. 14:1995;1-21.
32. Dekimpe M.G., Hanssens D.M. Empirical generalizations about market evolution and stationarity. Marketing Science. 14:1995;G109-G121.
33. Dekimpe M.G., Hanssens D.M. Sustained spending and persistent response: A new look at long-term marketing profitability. Journal of Marketing Research. 36:1999;397-412.
34. Dekimpe M.G., Steenkamp J.-B.E.M., Mellens M., Vanden Abeele P. Decline and variability in brand loyalty. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 14:1997;405-420.
35. Dekimpe M.G., Hanssens D.M., Silva-Risso J.M. Long-run effects of price promotions in scanner markets. Journal of Econometrics. 89:1999;269-291.
36. Dorfman R., Steiner P.O. Optimal advertising and optimal quality. The American Economic Review. 44:1954;826-836.
37. Edelman F. Art and science of competitive bidding. Harvard Business Review. 23:1965;52-66. (July-August).
38. Ehrenberg A.S.C. The pattern of consumer purchases. Applied Statistics. 8:1959;26-41.
39. Ehrenberg A.S.C. Repeat Buying, Theory and Applications. 1972;North-Holland, Amsterdam.
40. Ehrenberg A.S.C. Repeat-Buying: Facts, Theory and Data. 1988;Oxford University Press, New York.
41. Ehrenberg A.S.C. A hope for the future of statistics: MsoD. The American Statistician. 44:1990;195-196.
42. Ehrenberg A.S.C. Theory or well-based results: Which comes first? Laurent G., Lilien G.L., Pras B. Research Traditions in Marketing. 1994;79-108 Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA.
43. Ehrenberg A.S.C. Empirical generalizations, theory and method. Marketing Science. 14:1995;G20-G28.
44. Eliashberg J., Lilien G.L. Mathematical marketing models: Some historical perspectives and future projections. Eliashberg J., Lilien G.L. Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 5: Marketing. 1993;3-23 North-Holland, Amsterdam.
45. Ferber R., Verdoorn P.J. Research Methods in Economics and Business. 1962;Macmillan, New York.
46. Foekens, E.W., 1995. Scanner data based marketing modelling: Empirical applications. Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, University of Groningen, Netherlands.
47. Foekens E.W., Leeflang P.S.H., Wittink D.R. A comparison and an exploration of the forecasting accuracy of a loglinear model at different levels of aggregation. International Journal of Forecasting. 10:1994;245-261.
48. Foekens E.W., Leeflang P.S.H., Wittink D.R. Varying parameter models to accommodate dynamic promotion effects. Journal of Econometrics. 89:1999;249-268.
49. Fourt L.A., Woodlock J.W. Early predictions of market success for new grocery products. Journal of Marketing. 24:1960;31-38. (October).
50. Franses Ph.H. Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series. 1996;Oxford University Press, Oxford.
51. Franses Ph.H. Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting. 1998;Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
52. Friedman L. Game theory models in the allocation of advertising expenditures. Operations Research. 6:1958;699-709.
53. Gasmi F., Laffont J.J., Vuong Q. Econometric analysis of collusive behavior in a soft-drink market. Journal of Economics and Management Strategy. 1:1992;277-311.
54. Gatignon H., Robertson T.S., Fein A.J. Incumbent defense strategies against new product entry. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 14:1997;163-176.
55. Ghosh A., Neslin S.A., Shoemaker R.W. A comparison of market share models and estimation procedures. Journal of Marketing Research. 21:1984;202-210.
56. Granger C.W.J. Extracting information from mega-panel and high-frequency data. Statistica Neerlandica. 52:1998;258-272.
57. Guadagni P.M., Little J.D.C. A logit model of brand choice calibrated on scanner data. Marketing Science. 2:1983;203-238.
58. Gupta S. Impact of sales promotions on when, what and how much to buy. Journal of Marketing Research. 25:1988;342-355.
59. Gupta S., Chintagunta P.K., Kaul A., Wittink D.R. Do household scanner data provide representative inferences from brand choices: A comparison with store data. Journal of Marketing Research. 33:1996;383-398.
60. Harary F., Lipstein B. The dynamics of brand loyalty: A Markovian approach. Operations Research. 10:1962;19-40.
61. Herniter J.D., Howard R.A. Stochastic marketing models. Hertz D.B., Eddison R.T. Progress in Operations Research. Vol. 2:1964;33-96 Wiley, New York.
62. Hoch S.J., Kim B., Montgomery A.L., Rossi P.E. Determinants of store-level price elasticity. Journal of Marketing Research. 32:1995;17-29.
63. Hoekstra J.C., Leeflang P.S.H., Wittink D.R. The customer concept. Journal of Market-Focused Management. 4:1999;43-75.
64. Howard J.A., Morgenroth W.M. Information processing model of executive decisions. Management Science. 14:1968;416-428.
65. Kadiyali V. Entry, its deterrence, and its accommodation: A study of the U.S. photographic film industry. Rand Journal of Economics. 27:1996;452-478.
66. Kadiyali V., Vilcassim N.J., Chintagunta P.K. Product line extensions and competitive market interactions: An empirical analysis. Journal of Econometrics. 89:1999;339-363.
67. Kamakura W.A., Russell G.J. Measuring brand value with scanner data. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 10:1993;9-22.
68. Kaul A., Wittink D.R. Empirical generalizations about the impact of advertising on price sensitivity and price. Marketing Science. 14:1995;G151-G160.
69. Kim N., Parker P.M. Collusive conduct in private label markets. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 16:1999;143-156.
70. Kim N., Bridge E., Srivastava R.K. A simultaneous model for innovative product category sales diffusion and competitive dynamics. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 16:1999;95-112.
71. Kim S.Y., Staelin R. Manufacturer allowances and retailer pass-through rates in a competitive environment. Marketing Science. 18:1999;59-76.
72. Kotler Ph. Marketing Decision Making: A Model Building Approach. 1971;Holt, Rinehart and Winston, New York.
73. Krishnamurthi L. Conjoint models of family decision making. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 5:1988;185-198.
74. Krishnan T.V., Soni H. Guaranteed profit margins: A demonstration of retailer power. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 14:1997;35-56.
75. Kuehn A.A. A model for budgeting advertising. Bass F.M., Buzzell R.D. Mathematical Models and Methods in Marketing. 1961;315-348 Richard D. Irwin, Homewood, IL.
76. Kuehn A.A. Consumer brand choice as a learning process. Journal of Advertising Research. 2:1962;10-17.
77. Lambin J.J. Modèles et Programmes de Marketing. 1970;Presses Universitaires de France, Paris.
78. Lee T.C., Judge G.G., Zellner A. Estimating the Parameters of the Markov Probability Model from Aggregate Time Series Data. 1970;North-Holland, Amsterdam.
79. Leeflang P.S.H. Mathematical Models in Marketing, a Survey, the Stage of Development, Some Extensions and Applications. 1974;H.E. Stenfert Kroese, Leiden.
80. Leeflang P.S.H., Olivier A.J. Bias in consumer panel and store audit data. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 2:1985;27-41.
81. Leeflang P.S.H., Reuyl J.C. On the predictive power of market share attraction models. Journal of Marketing Research. 11:1984;211-215.
82. Leeflang P.S.H., Wittink D.R. Diagnosing competitive reactions using (aggregated) scanner data. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 9:1992;39-57.
83. Leeflang P.S.H., Wittink D.R. Competitive reaction versus consumer response: Do managers overreact? International Journal of Research in Marketing. 13:1996;103-119.
84. Leeflang P.S.H., Wittink D.R., Wedel M., Naert P.A. Building Models for Marketing Decisions. 2000;Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherlands.
85. Lenk P.J., DeSarbo W.S., Green P.E., Young M.R. Hierarchical Bayes conjoint analysis: Recovery of partworth heterogeneity from reduced experimental designs. Marketing Science. 15:1996;173-191.
86. Leone R.P. Generalizing what is known about temporal aggregation and advertising carryover. Marketing Science. 14:1995;G141-G150.
87. Leone R.P., Schultz R.L. A study of marketing generalizations. Journal of Marketing. 44:1980;10-18. (January).
88. Lilien G.L., Rangaswamy A. Marketing Engineering. 1998;Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.
89. Little J.D.C. Models and managers: The concept of a decision calculus. Management Science. 16:1970;B466-B485.
90. Little J.D.C. BRANDAID: A marketing-mix model: Part 1. Structure. Operations Research. 23:1975;628-655.
91. Little J.D.C. Modeling market response in large customers panels. Blattberg R.C., Glazer R., Little J.D.C. The Marketing Revolution. 1994;Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge, MA.
92. Little J.D.C., Lodish L.M., Hauser J.R., Urban G.L. Commentary (on Hermann Simon's Marketing Science's Pilgrimage to the Ivory Tower). Laurent G., Lilien G.L., Pras B. Research Traditions in Marketing. 1994;44-51 Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA.
93. Lodish L.M., Abraham A.A., Kalmenson S., Livelsberger J., Lubetkin B., Richardson B., Stevens M.E. How T.V. advertising works: A meta-analysis of 389 real world split cable T.V. advertising experiments. Journal of Marketing Research. 32:1995;125-139.
94. Lodish L.M., Abraham A.A., Livelsberger J., Lubetkin B., Richardson B., Stevens M.E. A summary of fifty-five in-market experimental estimates of the long-term effect of T.V. advertising. Marketing Science. 14:1995;G133-G140.
95. Maffei R.B. Brand preferences and simple Markov processes. Operations Research. 8:1960;210-218.
96. Magee J.F. The effect of promotional effort on sales. Journal of the Operations Research Society of America. 1:1953;64-74.
97. Marketing News, 1999. Honomichl global top 25. August 16, H1-H24.
98. Massy W.F., Montgomery D.B., Morrison D.G. Stochastic Models of Buying Behavior. 1970;MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
99. Mela C.F., Gupta S., Lehmann D.R. The long-term impact of promotion and advertising on consumer brand choice. Journal of Marketing Research. 34:1997;248-261.
100. Mela C.F., Gupta S., Jedidi K. Assessing long-term promotional influences on market structure. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 15:1998;89-107.
101. Mitchell A.A., Russo J.E., Wittink D.R. Issues in the development and use of expert systems for marketing decisions. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 8:1991;41-50.
102. Montgomery D.B. The outlook for M.I.S. Journal of Advertising Research. 13:1973;5-11.
103. Montgomery D.B., Urban G.L. Management Science in Marketing. 1969;Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
104. Montgomery D.B., Wittink D.R. Proceedings of the first ORSA/TIMS Special Interest Conference on Market Measurement and Analysis. 1980;Marketing Science Institute, Cambridge, MA.
105. Naert P.A., Weverbergh M. On the prediction power of market share attraction models. Journal of Marketing Research. 18:1981;146-153.
106. Naert P.A., Weverbergh M. Market share specification, estimation and validation: Toward reconciling seemingly divergent views. Journal of Marketing Research. 22:1985;453-461.
107. Nakanishi M., Cooper L.G. Parameter estimation for a multiplicative competitive interaction model - Least squares approach. Journal of Marketing Research. 11:1974;303-311.
108. Nakanishi M., Cooper L.G. Simplified estimation procedures for MCI models. Marketing Science. 1:1982;314-322.
109. Padmanabhan V., Png I.P.L. Manufacturer's returns policies and retail competition. Marketing Science. 16:1997;81-94.
110. Parsons L.J., Gijsbrechts E., Leeflang P.S.H., Wittink D.R. Marketing science, econometrics, and managerial contributions. Laurent G., Lilien G.L., Pras B. Research Traditions in Marketing. 1994;52-78 Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA.
111. Pieters R., Warlop L. Visual attention during brand choice: The impact of time pressure and task motivation. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 16:1999;1-16.
112. Pieters R., Rosbergen E., Wedel M. Visual attention to repeated print advertising: A test of scanpath theory. Journal of Marketing Research. 36:1999;424-438.
113. Pine B.J. II, Peppers D., Rogers M. Do you want to keep your customers forever? Harvard Business Review. 73:1995;103-114.
114. Plat F.W., Leeflang P.S.H. Decomposing sales elasticities on segmented markets. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 5:1988;303-315.
115. Reibstein D.J., Farris P.W. Market share and distribution: A generalization, a speculation and some implications. Marketing Science. 14:1995;G190-G202.
116. Russell G.J., Kamakura W.A. Understanding brand competition using micro and macro scanner data. Journal of Marketing Research. 31:1994;289-303.
117. Seetharaman P.B., Chintagunta P. A model of inertia and variety-seeking with marketing variables. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 15:1998;1-18.
118. Shankar V. New product introduction and incumbent response strategies: Their interrelationship and the role of multimarket contact. Journal of Marketing Research. 36:1999;327-344.
119. Shakun M.F. Advertising expenditures in coupled markets: A game theory approach. Management Science. 11:1965;42-47.
120. Shakun M.F. A dynamic model for competitive marketing in coupled markets. Management Science. 12:1966;B525-B529.
121. Shubik M. Strategy and Market Structure: Competition, Oligopoly and the Theory of Games. 1959;Wiley, New York.
122. Silva-Risso J.M., Bucklin R.E., Morrison D.G. A decision support system for planning manufacturers' sales promotion calendars. Marketing Science. 18:1999;274-300.
123. Simon H. Marketing science's pilgrimage to the ivory tower. Laurent G., Lilien G.L., Pras B. Research Traditions in Marketing. 1994;27-43 Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA.
124. Tellis G.J. The price elasticity of selective demand: A meta-analysis of econometric models of sales. Journal of Marketing Research. 25:1988;331-341.
125. Telser L.G. The demand for branded goods as estimated from consumer panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics. 44:1962;300-324.
126. Treacy M., Wiersema F. Customer intimacy and other value disciplines. Harvard Business Review. 71:1993;84-93.
127. Uncles M., Ehrenberg A.S.C., Hammond K. Patterns of buyer behavior: Regularities, models and extensions. Marketing Science. 14:1995;G71-G78.
128. Vakratsas D., Ambler T. How advertising works: What do we really know. Journal of Marketing. 63:1999;26-43.
129. van Bruggen G.H., Smidts A., Wierenga B. Improving decision making by means of a marketing decision support system. Management Science. 44:1998;645-658.
130. VanderWerf P.A., Mahon J.F. Meta-analysis of the impact of research methods on findings of first-mover advantage. Management Science. 43:1997;1510-1519.
131. van Heerde, H.J., 1999. Models for sales promotion effects based on store-level scanner data. Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, University of Groningen, Netherlands.
132. van Heerde H.J., Leeflang P.S.H., Wittink D.R. The estimation of pre- and postpromotion dips with store-level scanner data. Journal of Marketing Research. 2000;. in press.
133. van Heerde, H.J., Leeflang, P.S.H., Wittink, D.R., 2000b. Decomposing the sales effect of promotions with store-level scanner data. Working Paper, Faculty of Economics, University of Groningen, Netherlands, in press.
134. van Heerde H.J., Leeflang P.S.H., Wittink D.R. Semi-parametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve. Journal of Marketing Research. 2001;. in press.
135. Vidale H.L., Wolfe H.B. An operations-research study of sales response to advertising. Operations Research. 5:1957;370-381.
136. Vilcassim N.J., Kadiyali V., Chintagunta P.K. Investigating dynamic multifirm market interactions in price and advertising. Management Science. 45:1999;499-518.
137. Villas-Boas J.M., Winer R.S. Endogeneity in brand choice models. Management Science. 45:1999;1324-1338.
138. Walsh J. Flexibility in consumer purchasing for uncertain future tastes. Marketing Science. 14:1995;148-165.
139. Wansbeek T.J., Wedel M. Marketing and economics: Editor's introduction. Journal of Econometrics. 189:1999;1-14.
140. Webster F.E. The changing role of marketing in the corporation. Journal of Marketing. 56:1992;1-17.
141. Wedel M., Kamakura W.A. Market Segmentation: Conceptual and Methodological Foundations. 2nd edn. 2000;Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA.
142. Wedel M., Kistemaker C. Consumer benefit segmentation using clusterwise linear regression. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 6:1989;45-59.
143. Wedel M., Steenkamp J.-B.E.M. A fuzzy clusterwise regression approach to benefit segmentation. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 6:1989;241-258.
144. Wedel M., Steenkamp J.-B.E.M. A clusterwise regression method for simultaneous fuzzy market structuring and benefit segmentation. Journal of Marketing Research. 28:1991;385-396.
145. Wierenga B., van Bruggen G.H. The integration of marketing problem solving modes and marketing management support systems. Journal of Marketing. 61:1997;21-37. July.
146. Wierenga B., van Bruggen G.H. Marketing Management Support Systems: Principles, Tools, and Implementation. 2000;Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA.
147. Wierenga B., Oude Ophuis P.A.M. Marketing decision support systems: Adoption, use and satisfaction. International Journal of Research in Marketing. 14:1997;275-290.
148. Wierenga B., van Bruggen G.H., Staelin R. The success of marketing management support systems. Marketing Science. 18:1999;196-207.
149. Wind Y., Lilien G.L. Marketing strategy models. Eliashberg J., Lilien G.L. Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 5: Marketing. 1993;773-826 North-Holland, Amsterdam.
150. Wittink D.R., Keil S.K. Continuous conjoint analysis. Gustafsson A., Herrman A., Huber F. Conjoint Measurement: Methods and Applications. 2000;411-434 Springer, Berlin.
151. Wittink, D.R., Addona, M.J., Hawkes, W.J., Porter, J.C., 1988. SCAN*PRO: The estimation, validation and use of promotional effects based on scanner data. Internal paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY.