Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals

Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals

Volumn , Issue , 2011, Pages 1-368

  Keeling, Matt J ^a   Rohani, Pejman ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84924261283     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Book

References (533)

1. Abad, F.X., Pinto, R.M., and Bosch, A. (1994) Survival of Enteric Viruses on Environmental Fomites. App. Env. Micro. 60 3704-3710.
2. Abbey, H. (1952) An Examination of the Reed-Frost Theory of Epidemics. Human Biol. 24 201-233.
3. Abramson, G., and Kenkre, V.M. (2002) Spatiotemporal patterns in the Hantavirus infection. Phys. Rev. E 66, Art. No. 011912, Part 1.
4. Abramson, G., and Kenkre, V.M., Yates, T.L., and Parmenter, R.R. (2003) Traveling waves of infection in the hantavirus epidemics. Bull. Math. Biol. 65 519-534.
5. Acha, P.N., and Szyfres, B. (1989) Zoonoses and Communicable Diseases Common to Man and Animals. Washington, D C: Pan American Health Organization.
6. Ades, A.E., and Nokes, D.J. (1993) Modelling age and time specific incidence from seroprevalence: Toxoplasmosis. Am. J. Epid. 137 1022-1034.
7. Agur, Z., Cojocaru, L., Mazor, G., Anderson, R.M., and Danon, Y.L. (1993) Pulse Mass Measles Vaccination Across Age Cohorts. P. N. A. S. 90 11698-11702.
8. Albert, R., Jeong, H., and Barabási, A-L. (1999) Diameter of the world-wide web. Nature 401 130-131.
9. Albert, R., Jeong, H., and Barabási, A-L. (2000) Error and attack tolerance of complex networks. Nature 406 378-381.
10. Albina, E. (1997) Epidemiology of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS): An overview. Vet. Micro. 55 309-316.
11. Alexander, M.E., Moghadas, S.M., Rohani, P., and Summers, A.R. (2006) Modelling the effect of a booster vaccination on disease epidemiology. J. Math. Biol. 52 290-306.
12. Alibek, K., and Handelman, S. (1999) Biohazard: the chilling true story of the largest covert biological weapons program in the world. New York: Random House.
13. Allen, A.P., Li, B.L., and Charnov, E.L. (2001) Population fluctuations, power laws and mixtures of lognormal distributions. Ecol. Lett. 4 1-3.
14. Allen, L.J.S., and Burgin, A.M. (2000) Comparison of deterministic and stochastic SIS and SIR models in discrete time. Math. BioSci. 163 1-33.
15. Almond, J.W. (1998) Bovine spongiform encephalopathy and new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Brit. Med. Bull. 54 749-759.
16. Altizer, S.M., Hochachka, W.M., and Dhondt, A.A. (2004) Seasonal dynamics of mycoplasmal conjunctivitis in eastern North American House Finches. J. An. Ecol. 73 309-322.
17. Altizer, S., Dobson, A. P., Hosseini, P., Hudson, P. J., Pascual, M., and Rohani, P. (2006) Seasonality and population dynamics: infectious diseases as case studies. Ecol. Letters 9 467-484.
18. Anderson, P.K., Cunningham, A.A., Patel, N.G., Morales, F.J., Epstein, P.R., and Daszak, P. (2004) Emerging infectious diseases of plants: pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers. Trends Ecol. and Evol. 19 535-544.
19. Anderson, R.M., and May, R.M. (1979) Population Biology of Infectious Diseases 1. Nature 280 361-367.
20. Anderson, R.M., and May, R.M. (1982) Directly Transmitted Infectious Diseases: Control by Vaccination. Science 215 1053-1060.
21. Anderson, R.M., and May, R.M. (1991) Infectious Diseases of Humans. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
22. Anderson, R.M., May, R.M., Ng, T.W., and Rowley, J.T. (1992) Age-Dependent Choice of Sexual Partners and the Transmission Dynamics of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 336 135-155.
23. Anderson, R.M., Medley, G.F., May, R.M., and Johnson, A.M. (1986) A Preliminary Study of the Transmission Dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), the Causative Agent of AIDS. IMA J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 3 229-263.
24. Andersson, H. (1998) Limit theorems for a random graph epidemic model. Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 1331-1349.
25. Andersson, H., and Britton, T. (2000) Stochastic epidemics in dynamic populations: quasistationarity and extinction. J. Math. Biol. 41 559-580.
26. Andreasen, V., Levin, S.A., and Lin, J. (1996) A model of influenza A drift evolution. Z. Angew. Math. Mech. 76 (S2) 421-424.
27. Andreasen, V., Lin, J., and Levin, S.A. (1997) The dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains confering partial cross-immunity. J. Math. Biol. 35 825-842.
28. Anon (1978) Influenza in a boarding school. Brit. Med. J. 1:587.
29. Ansari, M.A., and Razdan, R.K. (1998) Seasonal prevalence of Aedes aegypti in five localities of Delhi, India. Dengue Bull. 22 28-34.
30. Ansari, S.A., Springthorpe, V.S., and Sattar, S.A. (1991) Survival and Vehicular Spread of Human Rotaviruses-Possible Relation to Seasonality of Outbreaks. Rev. Inf. Dis. 13 448-461.
31. Antia, R., Regoes, R.R., Koella, J.C., and Bergstrom, C.T. (2003) The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases. Nature 426 658-661.
32. Arca, M., Perucci, C.A., and Spadea, T. (1992) The Epidemic Dynamics of HIV-1 in Italy-Modeling the interaction between Intravenous-Drug-Users and Heterosexual population. Stat. Med. 11 1657-1684.
33. Arita, I., Wickett, J., and Fenner, F. (1986) Impact of population density on immunization programmes. J. Hyg. 96 459-66.
34. Arrowsmith, D.K., and Place, C.M. (1992) Dynamical Systems: Differential Equations, Maps and Chaotic Behaviour. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
35. Artzrouni, M., Brown, T., Feeney, G., Garnett, G., Ghys, P., Grassly, N., Schneider, D., Stanecki, K., Stover, J., Schwartlander, B., Walker, N., Way, P., Yan, P., Zaba, B., Zlotnik, H., Timaeus, I., and Walker, N. (2002) Improved methods and assumptions for estimation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact: Recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections. AIDS 16 W1-14.
36. Augustine, D.J. (1998) Modelling Chlamydia-koala interactions: coexistence, population dynamics and conservation implications. J. Appl. Ecol. 35 261-271.
37. Austin, D.J., and Anderson, R.M. (1999a) Studies of antibiotic resistance within the patient, hospitals and the community using simple mathematical models. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B 354 721-738.
38. Austin, D.J., and Anderson, R.M. (1999b) Transmission dynamics of epidemic methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and vancomycin resistant enterococci in England and Wales. J. Infect. Dis. 179 883-891.
39. Auvert, B., Buonamico, G., Lagarde, E., and Williams, B. (2000) Sexual behavior, heterosexual transmission, and the spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: A simulation study. Comput. Biomed. Res. 33 84-96.
40. Bailey, N.T.J. (1975) The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its Applications. London: Charles Griffin and Company.
41. Bak, P., Chen, K., and Tang, C. (1990) A forest fire model and some thoughts on turbulence. Phys. Letters A 147 297-300.
42. Baquero F., and Blazquez J. (1997) Evolution of antibiotic resistance. Trends Ecol. & Evol. 12 482-487.
43. Barabási, A.L., and Albert, R. (1999) Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science 286 509-512.
44. Barlow, N.D., Kean, J.M., Hickling, G., Livingstone, P.G., and Robson, A.B. (1997) A simulation model for the spread of bovine tuberculosis within New Zealand cattle herds. Prev. Vet. Med. 32 57-75.
45. Barnett, P.V., and Carabin, H. (2002) A review of emergency foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccines. Vaccine 20 1505-1514.
46. Barre-Sinioussi, F., Chermann, J.C., Rey, F., Nugeyre, M.T., Chamaret, S., Gruest, J., Dauguet, C., Axler-Blin, C., Vezinet-Brun, F., Rouzioux, C., Rozenbaum, W., and Montagnier, L. (1983) Isolation of a T-lymphotropic retrovirus from a patient at risk for acquired immune deficiency (AIDS). Science 220 868-871.
47. Bartlett, M.S. (1956) Deterministic and Stochastic Models for recurrent epidemics. Proc. Third Berkley Symp. on Math. Stats. and Prob. 4 81-108.
48. Bartlett, M.S. (1957) Measles periodicity and community size. J. R. Statistical Soc. A 120 48-70.
49. Bartlett, M.S. (1960) The critical community size for measles in the U.S. J. R. Statistical Soc. A 123 37-44.
50. Bascompte J., and Rodriguez-Trelles F. (1998) Eradication thresholds in epidemiology, conservation biology and genetics. J. Theor. Biol. 192 415-418.
51. Bates, T.W., Thurmond, M.C., and Carpenter, T.E. (2003) Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. Am. J. Vet. Res. 64 195-204.
52. Bauch, C.J., and Rand, D.A. (2000) A moment closure model for sexually transmitted disease transmission through a concurrent partnership network. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 267 2019-2027.
53. Bauch, C.T., and Earn, D.J.D. (2003) Transients and attractors in epidemics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. 270 1573-1578.
54. Beardmore, I., and Beardmore, R. (2003) The global structure of a spatial model of infectious disease. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. A 459 1427-1448.
55. Begon, M., Bennett, M., Bowers, R.G., French, N.P., Hazel, S.M., and Turner, J. (2002) A clarification of transmission terms in host-microparasite models: numbers, densities and areas. Epidemiol. Infect. 129 147-153.
56. Begon, M., Harper, J.L., and Townsend, C.R. (1996) Ecol. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Science.
57. Begon, M., Hazel, S.M., Baxby, D., Bown, K., Cavanagh, R., Chantrey, J., Jones, T., et al. (1999) Transmission dynamics of a zoonotic pathogen within and between wildlife host species. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 266 1939-1945.
58. Behrman, R.E., and Kliegman, R.M. (1998) Nelson Essentials of Pediatrics. Philadelphia: Saunders.
59. Bergelson, J., Dwyer, G., and Emerson, J.J. (2001) Models and data on plant-enemy coevolution. Annu. Rev. Genet. 35 469-499.
60. Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B.F., and Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Dynamics of measles epidemics: Estimating scaling of transmission rates using a time series SIR model. Ecol. Monographs 72 185-202.
61. Black, F.L. (1966) Measles endemicity in insular populations: critical community size and its evolutionary implications. J. Theo. Biol. 11 207-211.
62. Bohannan, B.J.M., and Lenski, R.E. (2000) Linking genetic change to community evolution: insights from studies of bacteria and bacteriophage. Ecol. Letters 3 362-377.
63. Bohrer, G., Shem-Tov, S., Summer, E., Or, K., and Saltz, D. (2002) The effectiveness of various rabies spatial vaccination patterns in a simulated host population with clumped distribution. Ecol. Model. 152 205-211.
64. Boily, M.C., and Masse, B. (1997) Mathematical models of disease transmission: A precious tool for the study of sexually transmitted diseases. Can. J. Pub. Health 88 255-265.
65. Bolker, B.M. (1993) Chaos and Complexity in measles models: a comparative numerical study IMA J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 10 83-95.
66. Bolker, B.M. (1999) Analytic models for the patchy spread of plant disease. Bull. Math. Biol. 61 849-874.
67. Bolker, B.M., and Grenfell, B.T. (1993) Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lon. B 251 75-81.
68. Bolker, B.M., and Grenfell, B.T. (1995) Space, persistence and dynamics of measles epidemics Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 348 309-320.
69. Bolker, B.M., and Grenfell, B.T. (1996) Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics. PNAS 93 12648-12653.
70. Bolker, B.M., and Pacala, S.W. (1997) Using moment equations to understand stochastically driven spatial pattern formation in ecological systems. Theo. Pop. Biol. 52 179-197.
71. Bolzoni, L., Dobson, A.P., Gatto, M., and De Leo, G.A. (2006) The Effect of Seasonality on the Epidemics of Wildlife Diseases. Ecol. Letters (in press).
72. Bongaarts, J. (1989) A Model of the Spread of HIV Infection and the Demographic-Impact of AIDS. Stat. Med. 8 103-120.
73. Boots, M., and Sasaki, A. (1999) 'Small worlds' and the evolution of virulence: infection occurs locally and at a distance. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 266 1933-1938.
74. Boots, M., and Sasaki, A. (2002) Parasite-driven extinction in spatially explicit host-parasite systems. Am. Nat. 159 706-713.
75. Bourne, J., Donnelly, C.A., Cox, D.R., Gettinby, G., McInerney, J.P., Morrison, I., and Woodroffe, R. (2000) Bovine tuberculosis: towards a future control strategy. Vet. Rec. 146 207-210.
76. Box, G.E.P., and Muller, M.E. (1958) A note on the generation of random normal deviates. Annals Math. Stat. 29 610-611.
77. Boyce, M.S., Sinclair, A.R.E., and White, G.C. (1999) Seasonal compensation of predation and harvesting. Oikos 87 419-426.
78. Bozzette, S.A., Boer, R., Bhatnagar, V., Brower, J.L., Keeler, E.B., Morton, S.C., and Stoto, M.A. (2003) A model for a smallpox-vaccination policy. N. Engl. J. Med. 348 416-425.
79. Brauer, F. (2002) Basic Ideas of Mathematical Epidemiology. Mathematical Approaches for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: Models, Methods, and Theory (eds. Castillo-Chavez, C., Blower, S., van den Driessche, P., Kirschner, D., and Yakubu, A-A.). Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
80. Bremermann, H.J., and Thieme, H.R. (1989) A Competitive-Exclusion Principle for Pathogen Virulence. J. Math. Bio. 27 179-190.
81. Broadfoot, J.D., Rosatte, R.C., and O'Leary, D.T. (2001) Raccoon and skunk population models for urban disease control planning in Ontario, Canada. Ecol. Appl. 11 295-303.
82. Buceta, J., Escudero, C., de la Rubia, F.J., and Lindenberg, K. (2004) Outbreaks of Hantavirus induced by seasonality. Phys. Rev. E 69, Art. No. 021906, Part 1.
83. Bunn, C.M., Garner, M.G., and Cannon, R.M. (1998) The 1872 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia-why didn't it become established? Aust. Vet. J. 76 262-269.
84. Burdon, J.J., and Thrall, P.H. (1999) Spatial and temporal patterns in coevolving plant and pathogen associations. Am. Nat. 153 S15-S33.
85. Burdon, J.J., Ericson, L., and Muller, W.J. (1995) Temporal and spatial changes in a metapopulation of the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host, Filipendula ulmaria. J. Ecol. 83 979-989.
86. Campbell, G.L., Marfin, A.A., Lanciotti, R.S., and Gubler, D.J. (2002) West Nile Virus. Lancet Infect. Dis. 2 519-529.
87. Cannon, R.M., and Garner, M.G. (1999) Assessing the risk of wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia. Environ. Int. 25 713-723.
88. Caraco, T., Glavanakov, S., Chen, G., Flaherty, J.E., Ohsumi, T.K., and Szymanski, B.K. (2002) Stage-structured infection transmission and a spatial epidemic: A model for Lyme disease. Am. Nat. 160 348-359.
89. Caswell, H. (2000) Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer.
90. Cates, W. et al. (1999) Estimates of the Incidence and Prevalence of Sexually Transmitted Diseases in the United States. Sex. Trans. Dis. 26 (suppl):S2-S7.
91. Cates, W., Rothenberg, R.B., and Blount, J.H. (1996) Syphilis control-The historic context and epidemiologic basis for interrupting sexual transmission of Treponema pallidum. Sex. Trans. Dis. 23 68-75.
92. Caughey, B., and Chesebro, B. (1997) Prion protein and the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. Trends Cell Biol. 7 56-62.
93. Chesson, H.W., and Pinkerton, S.D. (2000) Sexually transmitted diseases and the increased risk for HIV transmission: Implications for cost-effectiveness analyses of sexually transmitted disease prevention interventions. J. AIDS 24 48-56.
94. Chesson, H.W., Pinkerton, S.D., Irwin, K.L., Rein, D., and Kassler, W.J. (1999) New HIV cases attributable to syphilis in the USA: estimates from a simplified transmission model. AIDS 13 1387-1396.
95. Choisy, M., and Rohani, P. (2006) Harvesting can increase severity of wildlife disease epidemics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. Series B 273 2025-2034.
96. Choisy, M., Guegan, J.F., and Rohani, P. (2006) Resonance effects and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Physica D 223 26-35.
97. Clancy, D. (1996) Carrier-borne epidemic models incorporating population mobility. Math. BioSci. 132 185-204.
98. Clancy, D., and French, N.P. (2001) A Stochastic model for Disease Transmission in a Managed Herd, motivated by Neospora caninum amoungst dairy cattle. Math. BioSci. 170 113-132.
99. Clark, J.S., and Bjornstad, O.N. (2004) Population Time Series: Process Variability, Observation Errors, Missing Values, Lags, and Hidden States. Ecol. 85 3140-3150.
100. Clarkson, J.A., and Fine, P.E.M. (1985) The Efficiency of Measles and Pertussis Notification in England and Wales. Int. J. Epid. 14 153-168.
101. Cleaveland, S., Laurenson, M.K., and Taylor, L.H. (2001) Diseases of humans and their domestic mammals: pathogen characteristics, host range and the risk of emergence. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 356 991-999.
102. Cliff, A., and Haggett, P. (2004) Time, travel and infection. Brit. Med. Bull. 69 87-99.
103. Cliff, A., Haggett, P., and Smallman-Raynor, M. (1993) Measles. An historical geography of a major human viral disease from global expansion to local retreat 1840-1990. Oxford, UK: Blackwell.
104. Cliff, A.P., Haggett, P., Ord, J.K., and Versey, G.R. (1981) Spatial diffusion: an historical geography of epidemics in an island community. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
105. Clutton-Brock, T.H., Illius, A.W., Wilson, K., Grenfell, B.T., MacColl, A.D.C., and Albon, S.D. (1997) Stability and instability in ungulate populations: an empirical analysis. Am. Nat. 149 195-219.
106. Coggins, C., and Segal, S. (1998) AIDS and reproductive health. J. Reprod. Immunol. 41 3-15.
107. Collins, S.D., Wheeler, R.E., and Shannon, R.D. (1942) The occurrence of whooping cough, chickenpox, mumps, measles and german measles in 200,000 surveyed families in 28 large cities. Special Studies Series, 1, Washington U.S.P.H.S.
108. Cooper, B.S., Medley, G.F., Stone, S.P., Kibbler, C.C., Cookson, B.D., Roberts, J.A., Duckworth, G., Lai, R., and Ebrahim, S. (2004) Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in hospitals and the community: Stealth dynamics and control catastrophes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 101 10223-10228.
109. Corbel, M.J. (1997) Brucellosis: an overview. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 3 213-221.
110. Coulson, T.N., Rohani, P., and Pascual, M. (2004) Skeletons, noise and population growth: the end of an old debate? Trends Ecol. & Evol. 19 360-364.
111. Courchamp, F., Clutton-Brock, T., and Grenfell, B. (1999) Inverse density dependence and the Allee effect. Trends Ecol. & Evol. 14 405-410.
112. Daley, D.J., and Gani, J. (1999) Epidemic Modelling. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
113. Dawes, J.H.P., and Gog, J.R. (2001) The onset of oscillatory dynamics in models of multiple disease strains. J. Math. Biol. 45 471-510.
114. Day, K.P., and Marsh, K. (1991) Naturally Acquired-Immunity to Plasmodium-Falciparum. Immunoparasitol. Today 3 A68-A71.
115. Daszak, P., Cunningham, A.A., and Hyatt, A.D. (2000) Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife-Threats to biodiversity and human health. Science 287 443-449.
116. DEFRA (2004) Foot and Mouth Disease Contingency Plan, http://www.defra.gov.uk/footandmouth/contingency/index.htm.
117. de Jong, J.C., Rimmelzwaan, G.F., Fouchier, R.A.M., and Osterhaus, A.D.M.E. (2000) Influenza virus: a master of metamorphosis. J. Infect. 40 218-228.
118. de Jong, M.C.M., Dieckmann, O., and Heesterbeek, J. (1995) How does transmission of infection depend on population size? Epidemic Models: Their Structure and Relation to Data (ed. Mollison, D.),p. 8494. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
119. Delamaza, M.A., and Delamaza, L.M. (1995) A New Computer-Model for Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Protocols and its Application to the Study of Chlamydia-Trachomatis Genital Infections. Vaccine 13 119-127.
120. de Mendonça, J.R.G. (1999) Precise critical exponents for the basic contact process. J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 32 L467-L473.
121. de Quadros, C.A., Olive, J.M., Hersh, B.S., Strassburg, M.A., Henderson, D.A., Brandling-Bennett, D., and Alleyne, G.A. (1996) Measles elimination in the Americas. Evolving strategies. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 275 224-229.
122. Dexter, N. (2003) Stochastic models of foot and mouth disease in feral pigs in the Australian semiarid rangelands. J. Appl. Ecol. 40 293-306.
123. Dhooge, A., Govaerts, W., and Kuznetsov, Y.A. (2003) MATCONT: A MATLAB package for numerical bifurcation analysis of ODEs. ACM Trans. Math. Soft. 29 141-164.
124. Dieckmann, U., Law, R., and Metz, J.A.J. (2000) The Geometry of Ecological Interactions: Simplifying Spatial Complexity. Cambridge Studies in Adaptive Dynamics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
125. Diekmann, O. (1978) Thesholds and Travelling Waves for the Geographical Spread of Infection. J. Math. Biol. 6 109-130.
126. Dieckmann, O., de Jong, M.C.M., and Metz, J.A.J. (1998) A deterministic epidemic model taking account of repeated contacts between the same individuals. J. Appl. Prob. 35 448-462.
127. Diekmann, O., and Heesterbeek, J.A.P. (2000) Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
128. Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J.A.P., and Metz, J.A.J. (1990) On the Definition and the Computation of the Basic Reproduction Ratio R0 in Models for Infectious-Diseases in Heterogeneous Populations. J. Math. Biol. 28 365-382.
129. Dietz, K. (1967) Epidemics and Rumours: A Survey. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. A 130 505-528.
130. Dietz, K. (1976) The Incidence of Infectious Diseases Under the Influence of Seasonal Fluctuations. Lecture Notes in Biomath. 11 1-15.
131. Dietz, R., Heide-Jørgenson, M-P., and Härkönen, T. (1989) Mass death of harbour seals Phoca vitulina in Europe. Ambio 18 258-264.
132. Dingle, H. (1996) Migration: The Biology of Life on the Move. New York: Oxford University Press.
133. Dobson, A. (2004) Population Dynamics of Pathogens with Multiple Host Species. Am. Nat. 164 S64-S78.
134. Dobson, A., and Meagher, M. (1996) The population dynamics of brucellosis in the Yellowstone National Park. Ecol. 77 1026-1036.
135. Doedel, E.J., Champneys, A.R., Fairgrieve, T.F., Kuznetsov, Y.A., Standstede, B., and Wang, X. (1998) AUTO 97: Continuation and Bifurcation Software For Ordinary Differential Equations.
136. Doherty, I.A., Padian, N.S., Marlow, C., and Aral, S.O. (2005) Determinants and consequences of sexual networks as they affect the spread of sexually transmitted infections. J. Inf. Dis. 191 S42-S54.
137. Donnelly, C.A., Ferguson, M.N., Ghani, A.C., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Watt, C.J., and Anderson, R.M. (1997) The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. I. Epidemiological processes, demography of cattle and approaches to control by culling. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 352 781-802.
138. Donnelly, C.A., Ghani, A.C., Leung, G.M., Hedley, A.J., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Abu-Raddad, L.J., Ho, L.M., Thach, T.Q., Chau, P., Chan, K.P., Lam, T.H., Tse, L.Y., Tsang, T., Liu, S.H., Kong, J.H.B., Lau, E.M.C., Ferguson, N.M., and Anderson R.M. (2003) Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. Lancet 361 1761-1766.
139. d'Onofrio, A. (2002) Stability properties of pulse vaccination strategy in SEIR epidemic model. Math. Biosci. 179 57-72.
140. Downs, A.M., Heisterkamp, S.H., Brunet, J.B., and Hamers, F.F. (1977) Reconstruction and prediction of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among adults in the European Union and in the low prevalence countries of central and eastern Europe. AIDS 11 649-662.
141. Dubey, J.P. (1988) Toxoplasmosis of animals and man. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
142. Dugaw, C.J., Hastings, A., Preisser, E.L., and Strong, D.R. (2004) Seasonally limited host supply generates microparasite population cycles. Bull. Math. Biol. 66 583-594.
143. Dunyak, J., Martin, C., and Lampe, R. (1998) Analysis of the influence of social structure on a measles epidemic. Appl. Math. Comput. 92 282-296.
144. Dushoff, J., Plotkin, J.B., Levin, S.A., and Earn, D.J.D. (2004) Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101 16915-16916.
145. Eames, K.T.D., and Keeling, M.J. (2002) Modeling dynamic and network heterogeneities in the spread of sexually transmitted disease. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99 13330-13335.
146. Eames, K.T.D., and Keeling, M.J. (2003) Contact tracing and disease control. Proc. Royal. Soc. Lond. Series B 270 2565-2571.
147. Eames, K.T.D., and Keeling, M.J. (2004) Monogamous networks and the spread of sexually transmitted diseases Math. Biosci. 189 115-130.
148. Earn, D.J., Dushoff, J., and Levin, S.A. (2002) Ecology and evolution of the flu. Trends Ecol. & Evol. 17 334-240.
149. Earn, D.J.D., Rohani, P., and Grenfell, B.T. (1998) Persistence, chaos and synchrony in ecology and epidemiology. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 265 7-10.
150. Earn, D.J.D., Rohani, P., Bolker, B.M., and Grenfell, B.T. (2000) A Simple Model for Complex Dynamical Transitions in Epidemics. Science 287 667-670.
151. East, M.L., Hofer, H., Cox, J.H.,Wulle, U.,Wiik, H., and Pitra, C. (2001) Regular exposure to rabies virus and lack of symptomatic disease in Serengeti spotted hyenas. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 98 15026-15031.
152. Ebert, D., and Bull, J.J. (2003) Challenging the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence: is virulence management feasible? Trends Microbiol. 11 15-20.
153. Edmunds, W.J., O'Callaghan, C.J., and Nokes, D.J. (1997) Who mixes with whom? A method to determine the contact patterns of adults that may lead to the spread of airborne infections. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 1384 949-957.
154. Eichner, M., and Dietz, K. (2003) Transmission Potential of Smallpox: Estimates Based on Detailed Data from an Outbreak. Am. J. Epidemiol. 158 110-117.
155. Eidson, M., Komar, N., Sorhage, F., Nelson, R., Talbot, T., Mostashari, F., and McLean, R. (2001) Crow Deaths as a Sentinel Surveillance System forWest Nile Virus in the Northern United States, 1999. Emerg. Inf. Dis. 7 615-620.
156. Elbers, A.R.W., Stegeman, A., Moser, H., Ekker, H.M., Smak, J.A., Pluimers, F.H. (1999) The classical swine fever epidemic 1997-1998 in the Netherlands: descriptive epidemiology. Prev. Vet. Med. 42 157-184.
157. Ericson, L., Burdon, J.J., and Muller,W.J. (1999) Spatial and temporal dynamics of epidemics of the rust fungus Uromyces valerianae on populations of its host Valeriana salina. J. Ecol. 87 649-658.
158. Erlander, S., and Stewart, N.F. (1990) The gravity model in transportation analysis-theory and extensions. The Netherlands: International Science Publishers.
159. Escriu, F., Fraile, A., and Garc-a-Arenala, F. (2002) The Evolution of Virulence in a plant virus. Evolut. 57 75765.
160. Farr, W. (1840) Progress of Epidemic. Second Report of the Registrar General of England 91-98.
161. Farrington, C.P., and Grant, A.D. (1999) The distribution of time to extinction in subcritical branching processes: applications to outbreaks of infectious disease. J. Appl. Prob. 36 771-779.
162. Fenner, F., Henderson, D.A., Arita, I., Jezek, Z., and Ladnyi, I.D. (1988) Smallpox and Its Eradication. Geneva: World Health Organization.
163. Ferguson, N.M., Anderson, R.M., and Garnett, G.P. (1996a) Mass vaccination to control chickenpox: The influence of zoster. Proc. Natl. Adac. Sci. USA 93 7231-7235.
164. Ferguson, N.M., Anderson, R.M., and Gupta, S. (1999a) The effect of antibody-dependent enhancement on the transmission dynamics and persistence of multiple-strain pathogens. Proc. Natl. Adac. Sci. USA 96 790-794.
165. Ferguson, N.M., Anderson, R.M., and May, R.M. (1997a) Scale, persistence and synchronicity: measles as a paradigm of a spatially-structured ecosystem. Spatial Ecology: the Role of Space in Population Dynamics and Interspecific Interactions (eds. Tilman, D. and Kareiva, P.), Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
166. Ferguson, N.M., Cummings, D.A., Cauchemez, S., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Meeyai, A., Iamsirithaworn, S., and Burke, D.S. (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437 209-214.
167. Ferguson, N.M., Cummings, D.A., Fraser, C., Cajka, J.C., Cooley, P.C., and Burke, D.S. (2006) Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature (in press).
168. Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A., and Anderson, R.M. (2001a) The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science 292 1155-1160.
169. Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A., and Anderson, R.M. (2001b) Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Nature 413 542-548.
170. Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A.,Woolhouse, M.E.J., and Anderson, R.M. (1997b) The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. I. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 352 803-838.
171. Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A.,Woolhouse, M.E.J., and Anderson, R.M. (1999b) Estimation of the basic reproductive number of BSE: the intensity of transmission in British cattle. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 266 23-32.
172. Ferguson, N.M., Galvani, A.P., and Bush, R.M. (2003a) Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution) Nature. 422 428-433.
173. Ferguson, N.M., Keeling, M.J., Edmunds, W.J., Gant, R., Grenfell, B.T., Anderson, R.M., and Leach, S. (2003b) Planning for smallpox outbreaks) Nature. 425 681-685.
174. Ferguson, N.M., Nokes, D.J., and Anderson, R.M. (1996b) Dynamical complexity in age-structured models of the transmission of measles virus) Math. BioSci. 138 101-130.
175. Ferrari, M.J., Bjornstad, O.N., and Dobson, A. (2005) Estimation and inference of R0 of an infectious pathogen by a removal method. Math. Biosci. 198 14-26.
176. Fine, P.E. (1993) Herd immunity: history, theory, practice. Epidemiol. Rev. 15 265-302.
177. Fine, P.E.M., and Clarkson, J.A. (1982) Measles in England and Wales. I: An Analysis of Factors Underlying Seasonal Patterns Int. J. Epidemiol. 11 5-14.
178. Finkenstädt, B., and Grenfell, B. (2000) Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach. J. R. Statist. Soc. C., Applied Statist. 49 187-205.
179. Finkenstädt, B., and Grenfell, B. (1998) Empirical determinants of measles metapopulation dynamics in England and Wales. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 265 211-220.
180. Finkenstädt, B., Keeling, M.J., and Grenfell, B. (1998) Patterns of density dependence in measles dynamics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 265 753-762.
181. Fitch, W.M., Bush, R.M., Bender, C.A., and Cox, N.J. (1997) Long term trends in the evolution of H(3)HA1 human influenza type A. Proc. Natl. Adac. Sci. USA 94 7712-7718.
182. Foley, J.E., Foley, P., and Pedersen, N.C. (1999) The persistence of a SIS disease in a metapopulation. J. Appl. Ecol. 36 555-563.
183. Folstad, I., Nilssen, F.I., Halvorsen, A.C., and Andersen, O. (1991) Parasite avoidance: the cause of post-calving migrations in Rangifer? Canadian J. Zool. 69 2423-2429.
184. Frank, S.A., and Jeffrey, J.S. (2001) The probability of severe disease in zoonotic and commensal infections. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 268 53-60.
185. Fraser, C., Riley, S., Anderson, R.M., and Ferguson, N.M. (2004) Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc. Natl. Adac. Sci. USA 101 6146-6151.
186. Fulford, G.R., Roberts, M.G., and Heesterbeek, J.A.P. (2002) The metapopulation dynamics of an infectious disease: Tuberculosis in possums. Theor. Pop. Biol. 61 15-29.
187. Furniss, P.R., and Hahn, B.D. (1981) A Mathematical-model of an Anthrax epizootic in the Kruger National-Park. Appl. Math. Model. 5 130-136.
188. Gaillard, J.M., Festa-Bianchet, M., Yoccoz, N.G., Loison, A., and Toïgo, C. (2000) Temporal variation in fitness component and population dynamics of large herbivores. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 31 367-393.
189. Gamerman, D. (1997) Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simulation for Bayesian Inference. Chapman & Hall.
190. Gandon, S., Mackinnon, M.J., Nee, S., and Read, A.F. (2001) Imperfect vaccines and the evolution of pathogen virulence. Nature 414 751-756.
191. Gandon, S., Mackinnon, M.J., Nee, S., and Read, A.F. (2003) Imperfect vaccination: some epidemiological and evolutionary consequences. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 270 1129-1136.
192. Gani, R., and Leach, S. (2001) Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations. Nat. 414 748-751.
193. Garly, M.A., and Aaby, P. (2003) The challenge of improving the efficacy of measles vaccine. Acta Tropica 85 1-17.
194. Garner, M.G., and Lack, M.B. (1995) An Evaluation of Alternative Control Strategies for Foot-and-Mouth-Disease in Australia-A Regional Approach. Prev. Vet. Med. 23 9-32.
195. Garnett, G.P., and Anderson, R.M. (1993a) Contact Tracing and the Estimation of Sexual Mixing Patterns: The Epidemiology of Gonococcal Infections) Sex. Trans. Dis. 20 181-191.
196. Garnett, G.P., and Anderson, R.M. (1993b) Factors Controlling the Spread of HIV in Heterosexual Communities in Developing-Countries-Patterns of Mixing between Different Age and Sexual-Activity Classes) Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 342 137-159.
197. Garnett, G.P., and Anderson, R.M. (1996) Sexually transmitted diseases and sexual behavior: Insights from mathematical models. J. Infect. Dis. 174 S150-S161.
198. Garnett, G.P., and Bowden, F.J. (2000) Epidemiology and control of curable sexually transmitted diseases-Opportunities and problems. Sex. Trans. Dis. 27 588-599.
199. Garnett, G.P., Mertz, K.J., Finelli, L., Levine, W.C., and St Louis, M.E. (1999) The transmission dynamics of gonorrhoea: modelling the reported behaviour of infected patients from Newark, New Jersey. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 354 787-797.
200. Ghani, A.C., Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A., and Anderson, R.M. (2000) Predicted vCJD mortality in Great Britain-Modelling the latest data puts a ceiling on the likely number of vCJD cases. Nature 406 583-584.
201. Ghani, A.C., Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A., and Anderson, R.M. (2003a) Factors determining the pattern of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in the UK) Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 270 689-698.
202. Ghani, A.C., Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A., and Anderson, R.M. (2003b) Short-term projections for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease onsets) Stat. Meth. Med. Res. 12 191-201.
203. Gibbs, M.J., Armstrong, J.S., and Gibbs, A.J. (2001) Recombination in the hemagglutinin gene of the 1918 "Spanish flu." Science 293 1842-1845.
204. Gibson, G.J. (1997a) Investigating Mechanisms of Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spread Using Stochastic Models) Phytopathol. 87 139-146.
205. Gibson, G.J. (1997b) Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Fitting Spatiotemporal Stochastic Models in Plant Epidemiology) Appl. Statist. 46 215-233.
206. Gibson, G.J., and Austin, E.J. (1996) Fitting and testing spatio-temporal stochastic models with application in plant epidemiology. Plant Pathol. 45 172-184.
207. Gibson, G.J., Gilligan, C.A., and Kleczkowski, A. (1999) Predicting variability in biological control of a plant-pathogen system using stochastic models. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 266 1743-1753.
208. Gibson, M.A., and Bruck J. (2000) Efficient Exact Stochastic Simulation of Chemical Systems with Many Species and Many Channels. J. Phys. Chem. 104 1876-1889.
209. Gillespie, D.T. (1976) General method for numerically simulating stochastic evolution of coupled chemical-reactions. J. Comput. Phys. 22 403-434.
210. Gillespie, D.T. (1977) Exact stochastic simulation of coupled chemical reactions. J. Phys. Chem. 81 2340-2361.
211. Gillespie, D.T. (2001) Approximate accelerated stochastic simulation of chemically reacting systems. J. Chem. Phys. 115 1716-1733.
212. Gillespie, D.T. and Petzold L.R. (2003) Improved leap-size selection for accelerated stochastic simulation. J. Chem. Phys. 119 8229-8234.
213. Goddard, L.B., Roth, A.E., Reisen, W.K., and Scott, T.W. (2002) Vector Competence of California Mosquitoes for West Nile Virus. Emerg. Inf. Dis. 8 1385-1391.
214. Gog, J., Woodroffe, R., and Swinton, J. (2002) Disease in endangered metapopulations: the importance of alternative hosts. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 269 671-676.
215. Gog, J.R., and Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99 17209-17214.
216. Gog, J.R., and Swinton, J. (2002) A status based approach to multiple strain dynamics. J. Math. Biol. 44 169-184.
217. Gomes, M.G.M., Medley, G.F., and Nokes, D.J. (2002) On the determinants of population structure in antigenically diverse pathogens. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 269 227-233.
218. Goodchild, A.V., and Clifton-Hadley, R.S. (2001) Cattle-to-cattle transmission of Mycobacterium bovis. Tuberculosis 81 23-41.
219. Grais, R.F., Ellis, J.H., and Glass, G.E. (2003) Assessing the impact of airline travel on the geographic spread of pandemic influenza. Eur. J. Epidemiol. 18 1065-1072.
220. Grassly, N.C., Fraser, C., and Garnett, G.P. (2005) Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States. Nature 433 417-421.
221. Grassly, N.C., and Fraser, C. (2006) Seasonality in Infectious Diseases. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 273 2541-2550.
222. Green, D.G., and Sadedin, S. (2005) Interactions matter-complexity in landscapes and ecosystems. Ecol. Compl. 2 117-130.
223. Greenman, J., Kamo, M., and Boots, M. (2004) External forcing of ecological and epidemiological systems: a resonance approach. Physica D 190 136-151.
224. Gremillion-Smith, C., and Woolf, A. (1988) Epizootiology of skunk rabies in North America. J. Wildlife Dis. 24 620-626.
225. Grenfell, B.T. (1992) Chance and chaos in measles dynamics. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 54 383-398.
226. Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., and Kappey J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414 716-723.
227. Grenfell, B.T., and Anderson, R.M. (1985) The estimation of age related rates of infection from case notifications and serological data. J. Hyg. 95 419-36.
228. Grenfell, B.T., and Bolker, B.M. (1998) Cities and villages: infection hierarchies in a measles metapopulation. Ecol. Lett. 1 63-70.
229. Grenfell, B.T., Bolker, B.M., and Kleczkowski, A. (1995) Seasonality and extinction in chaotic metapopulations. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 259 97-103.
230. Grenfell, B.T., and Dobson, A.P. (1995) Ecology of Infectious Disease in Natural Populations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
231. Grenfell, B.T., Kleczkowski, A., Ellner, S., and Bolker, B.M. (1994) Measles as a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A 348 515-530.
232. Grossman, Z. (1980) Oscillatory phenomenon in a model of infectious diseases. Theo. Pop. Biol. 18 204-243.
233. Guan, Y., Zheng, B.J., He, Y.Q., Liu, X.L., Zhuang, Z.X., Cheung, C.L., Luo, S.W., Li, P.H., Zhang, L.J., Guan, Y.J., Butt, K.M., Wong, K.L., Chan, K.W., Lim, W., Shortridge, K.F., Yuen, K.Y., Peiris, J.S.M., and Poon, L.L.M. (2003) Isolation and characterization of viruses related to the SARS coronavirus from animals in Southern China. Science 302 276-278.
234. Gudelj, I., White, K.A.J., and Britton, N.F. (2004) The effects of spatial movement and group interactions on disease dynamics of social animals. Bull. Math. Biol. 66 91-108.
235. Gupta, S., and Maiden, M.C.J. (2001) Exploring the evolution of diversity in pathogen populations. Trends Microbiol. 9 181-185.
236. Gupta, S., Anderson, R.M., and May, R.M. (1989) Networks of sexual contacts: implications for the pattern of spread of HIV. AIDS 3 807-817.
237. Gupta, S., Ferguson, N., and Anderson, R. (1998) Chaos, Persistence and Evolution of Strain Structure in Antigenically Diverse Infectious Agents. Nature 280 912-915.
238. Gupta, S., Trenhome, K., Anderson, R.M., and Day, K.P. (1994) Antigentic diversity and the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum. Science 263 961-963.
239. Hagenaars, T.J., Donnelly, C.A., and Ferguson, N.M. (2004) Spatial heterogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases. Theor. Pop. Biol. 229 349-359.
240. Hagenaars, T.J., Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A., and Anderson, R.M. (2001) Persistence patterns of scrapie in a sheep flock. Epidemiol. Infect. 127 157-167.
241. Hahn, B.D., and Furniss, P.R. (1983) A Deterministic Model of an Anthrax Epizootic-Threshold Results. Ecol. Model. 20 233-241.
242. Hahn, B.H., Shaw, G.M., De Cock, K.M., and Sharp, P.M. (2000) AIDS as a zoonosis: scientific and public health implications. Science 287 607-614.
243. Halloran, M.E., Longini, I.M., Nizam, A., and Yang, Y. (2002) Containing bioterrorist smallpox. Science 298 1428-1432.
244. Hamer, W.H. (1897) Age-Incidence in Relation with Cycles of Disease-Prevalence. Trans. Epidemiol. Soc. London XVI 64-77.
245. Hamer, W.H. (1906) Epidemic diseases in England-the evidence of variability and of persistency of type. Lancet 1 733-739.
246. Hamilton, J. (1994) Time Series Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
247. Hanski, I. (1999) Habitat connectivity, habitat continuity, and metapopulations in dynamic landscapes. Oikos 87 209-219.
248. Hanski, I.A., and Gaggiotti, O.E. (eds.) (2004) Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution of Metapopulations. Elsevier Academic Press.
249. Hanski, I., and Gilpin, M. (1991) Metapopulation Dynamics-Brief-history and Conceptual Domain. Biol. J. Linnean Soc. 42 3-16.
250. Hanski, I.A., and Gilpin, M.E. (eds.) (1997) Metapopulation Biology. Ecology, Genetics and Evolution. Elsevier Academic Press.
251. Harris, T.E. (1974) Contact interactions on a lattice. Ann. Probab. 2 969-988.
252. Hassell, M. P. (1978) The dynamics of arthropod predator-prey systems. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
253. Hassell, M.P., Comins, H.N., and May, R.M. (1991) Spatial Structure and Chaos in Insect Population Dynamics. Nature 353 255-258.
254. Hay, J.W., and Ward, J.L. (2005) Economic considerations for pertussis booster vaccination in adolescents. J. Ped. Infect. Dis. 24 S127-33.
255. Hedrich, A. (1933) Epidemic Studies: The Monthly Variation of Measles Susceptibles in Baltimore, Maryland from 1901 to 1928. Thesis, Johns Hopkins University.
256. Heesterbeek, J.A.P. (2002) A brief history of R0 and a recipe for its calculation. Acta Biotheor. 50 189-204.
257. Herbert, J., and Isham, V. (2000) Stochastic host-parasite interaction models. J. Math. Biol. 40 343-371.
258. Hess, G. (1996) Disease in metapopulations: implications for conservation. Ecology 77 1617-1632.
259. Hethcote, H. (2000) The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases. SIAM Review 42 599-653.
260. Hethcote, H., and Tudor, D.W. (1980) Integral equation models for endemic infectious diseases. J. Math. Biol. 9 37-47.
261. Hilton, D.A., Ghani, A.C., Conyers, L., Edwards, P., McCardle, L., Ritchie, D., Penney, M., Hegazy, D., and Ironside, J.W. (2004) Prevalence of lymphoreticular prion protein accumulation in UK tissue samples. J. Path. 203 733-739.
262. Holt, R.D. (1977) Predation, Apparent Competition, and Structure of Prey Communities. Theo. Pop. Biol. 12 197-229.
263. Hosseini, P.R., Dhondt, A.A., and Dobson, A.P. (2004) Seasonality and wildlife disease: how seasonal birth, aggregation and variability in immunity affect the dynamics of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in house finches. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 271 2569-2577.
264. Huang, Y., and Rohani, P. (2005) The dynamical implications of disease interference: Correlations and coexistence. Theo. Pop. Biol. 68 205-215.
265. Huang, Y., and Rohani, P. (2006) Age-structured effects determine interference between childhood infections. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 273 1229-1237.
266. Hubalek Z., and Halouzka J. (1999) West Nile fever-a reemerging mosquito-borne viral disease in Europe. Emerging Infect. Dis. 5 643-650.
267. Hudson, P.J. (1992) Grouse in Space in Time. Game Conservancy, Hampshire, UK.
268. Hudson, P.J., Dobson, A.P., and Newborn, D. (1998) Prevention of population cycles by parasite removal. Science 282 2256-2258.
269. Hudson, P.J., Rizzoli, A., Grenfell, B.T., Heesterbeek, H., and Dobson, A.P. (2001) The Ecology of Wildlife Diseases. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
270. Ireland, J.M., Norman, R.A., and Greenman, J.V. (2004) The effect of seasonal host birth rates on population dynamics: the importance of resonance. J. Theo. Biol. 231 229-238.
271. Islam, M.N., O'Shaughnessy, C.D., and Smith, B. (1996) A random graph model for the final-size distribution of household infections. Stat. Med. 15 837-843.
272. Jacquez, J.A., and O'Neill, P. (1991) Reproduction Numbers and Thresholds in Stochastic Epidemic Models. 1. Homogeneous Populations. Math. BioSci. 107 161-186.
273. Jacquez, J.A., and Simon, C.P. (1993) The Stochastic SI model with Recruitment and Deaths. 1 Comparison with the closed SIS model. Math. BioSci. 117 77-125.
274. Jacquez, J.A., Simon, C.P., Koopman, J., Sattenspiel, L., and Perry, T. (1988) Modeling and Analyzing HIV Transmission-The Effect of Contact Patterns. Math. Biosci. 92 119-199.
275. Janaszek,W., Gay, N.J., and Gut, W. (2003) Measles vaccine efficacy during an epidemic in 1998 in the highly vaccinated population in Poland. Vaccine 21 473-478.
276. Jeong, H., Tombar, B., Albert, R., Oltvai, Z.N., and Barabási, A.L. (2000) The large-scale organization of metabolic networks. Nature 407 651-654.
277. Johnson, A.M., Wadsworth, J., Wellings K., and Field, J. (1994) Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Scientific Publications.
278. Jonzén, N., and Lundberg, P. (1999) Temporally structured density-dependence and population management. Annales Zoologici Fennici 36 39-44.
279. Kallen, A., Arcuri, P., and Murray, J.D. (1985) A Simple-model for the Spatial Spread and Control of Rabies. J. Theo. Biol. 116 377-393.
280. Kao, R.R. (2003) The impact of local heterogeneity on alternative control strategies for foot-andmouth disease. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 270 2557-2564.
281. Kaplan, E.H., Craft, D.L., and Wein, L.M. (2002) Emergency response to a smallpox attack: The case for mass vaccination. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99 10935-10940.
282. Katok, A., and Hasselblatt, B. (1996) Introduction to the Modern Theory of Dynamical Systems. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
283. Keeling, M.J. (1997) Modelling the persistence of measles. Trends MicroBiol. 5 513-518.
284. Keeling, M.J. (1999) The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 266 859-867.
285. Keeling, M.J. (2000a) Simple Stochastic Models and their Power-law Type Behaviour) Theo. Pop. Biol. 58 21-31.
286. Keeling, M.J. (2000b) Metapopulation moments: coupling, stochasticity and persistence) J. Animal Ecol. 69 725-736.
287. Keeling, M.J. (2005) The implications of network structure for epidemic dynamics. Theo. Pop. Biol. 67 1-8.
288. Keeling, M.J., and Eames, K.T.D. (2005) Networks and Epidemic Models. Interface 2 295-307.
289. Keeling, M.J., and Gilligan, C.A. (2000) Bubonic plague: a metapopulation model of a zoonosis. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 267 2219-2230.
290. Keeling, M.J., and Grenfell, B.T. (1997a) Disease Extinction and Community Size: Modeling the Persistence of Measles) Science. 275 65-67.
291. Keeling, M.J., and Grenfell, B.T. (1997b) Impact of Variability in Infection Period on the Persistence and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases) Math. BioSci. 147 206-227.
292. Keeling, M.J., and Grenfell, B.T. (1999) Stochastic Dynamics and a power law for measles variability. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 354 769-776.
293. Keeling, M.J., and Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Understanding the Persistence of Measles: Reconciling Theory, Simulation and Observation. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 269 335-343.
294. Keeling, M.J., and Rohani, P. (2002) Estimating Spatial Coupling in Epidemiological Systems: a Mechanistic Approach. Ecol. Letters 5 20-29.
295. Keeling, M.J., Bjørnstad, O.N., and Grenfell, B.T. (2004a) Metapopulation Dynamics of Infectious Diseases. (Ecology, Genetics and Evolution of Metapopulations, (eds. I. Hanski and O.E. Gaggiotti,) Elsevier Academic Press, 415-446.
296. Keeling, M.J., Brooks, S.P., and Gilligan, C.A. (2004b) Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a single snapshot) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 101 9155-9160.
297. Keeling, M.J., Mezic, I., Hendry, R.J., McGlade, J., and Rand, D.A. (1997a) Characteristic length scales of spatial models in ecology via fluctuation analysis) Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 352 1589-1601.
298. Keeling, M.J., Rand, D.A., and Morris, A.J. (1997b) Correlation models for childhood epidemics) Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 264 1149-1156.
299. Keeling, M.J., Rohani, P., and Grenfell, B.T. (2001a) Seasonally Forced Disease Dynamics Explained by Switching Between Attractors) Physica D. 148 317-335.
300. Keeling, M.J., Wilson, H.B., and Pacala, S.W. (2000) Re-interpreting Space, Time-lags and Functional Responses in Ecological Models. Science 290 1758-1761.
301. Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D.T., Cornell, S.J., Kappey, J., Wilesmith, J., and Grenfell, B.T. (2001b) Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape) Science. 294 813-817.
302. Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., May, R.M., Davies, G., and Grenfell, B.T. (2003) Modelling Vaccination Strategies against Foot-and-Mouth Disease. Nature 421 136-142.
303. Kelly, M., and Meentemeyer, R.K. (2002) Landscape dynamics of the spread of sudden oak death. Photogramm. Eng. Rem. S68 1001-1009.
304. Kendall, D.G. (1949) Stochastic processes and population growth. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B 11 230-264.
305. Kermack, W.O., and McKendrick, A.G. (1927) A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. A 115 700-721.
306. Kitala, P.M., McDermott, J.J., Coleman, P.G., and Dye, C. (2002) Comparison of vaccination strategies for the control of dog rabies in Machakos District, Kenya. Epidemiol. Infect. 129 215-222.
307. Kleczkowski, A., Gilligan, C.A., and Bailey, D.J. (1997) Scaling and spatial dynamics in plantpathogen systems: From individuals to populations. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 264 979-984.
308. Klovdahl, A.S. (1985) Social Networks and the Spread of Infectious Diseases: The AIDS Example. Soc. Sci. Med. 21 1203-1216.
309. Klovdahl, A.S. (2001) Networks and Pathogens. Sex. Transm. Dis. 28 25-28.
310. Koelle, K., and Pascual, M. (2004) Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: A nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera. Am. Nat. 163 901-913.
311. Koelle, K., Rodo, X., Pascual, M., Yunus, M., and Mostafa, G. (2005) Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature 436 696-700.
312. Kokko, H., and Lindstrm, J. (1998) Seasonal density dependence, timing of mortality, and sustainable harvesting. Ecol. Mod. 110 293-304.
313. Kolata, G. (1987) Mathematical-Model Predicts AIDS Spread. Science 235 1464-1465.
314. Komar, N., Panella, N.A., Burns, J.E., Dusza, S.W., Mascarenhas, T.M., and Talbot, T.O. (2001) Serologic Evidence for West Nile Virus Infection in Mosquitoes, Birds, Horses and Humans, Staten Island, New York, 2000. Emerg. Inf. Dis. 7 621-625.
315. Koopman, J. (2004) Modeling infection transmission. Annu. Rev. Public Health 25 303-326.
316. Koopman, J.S., Jacquez, J.A.,Welch, G.W., Simon, C.P., Foxman, B., Pollock, S.M., Barth-Jones, D., Adams, A.L., and Lange, K. (1997) The role of early HIV infection in the spread of HIV through populations. J. Acq. Immun. Defic. Synd. Hum. R. 14 249-258.
317. Kot, M. (2000) Elements of Mathematical Biology. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
318. Krebs, J.R. (1997) Bovine tuberculosis in cattle and badgers: report to the Rt. Hon. Dr. Jack Cunningham MP by the Independent Scientific Review Group. London: DEFRA.
319. Kretzschmar, M. (2002) Mathematical epidemiology of Chlamydia trachomatis infections. Neth. J. Med. 60 35-41.
320. Kretzschmar, M., van Duynhoven, Y.T.H.P., and Severijnen, A.J. (1996) Modeling prevention strategies for gonorrhea and Chlamydia using stochastic network simulations. Am. J. Epid. 144 306-317.
321. Kretzschmar, M., Welte, R., van den Hoek, A., and Postma, M.J. (2001) Comparative model-based analysis of screening programs for Chlamydia trachomatis infections. Am. J. Epid. 153 90-101.
322. Kuperman, M., and Abramson, G. (2001) Small world effect in an epidemiological model. Phys. Rev. Lett. 86 2909-2912.
323. Kuznetsov, Y.A. (1994) Elements of Applied Bifurcation Theory. New York: Springer-Verlag.
324. Kuznetsov, Y.A., and Piccardi, C. (1994) Bifurcation Analysis of Periodic SEIR and SIR Epidemic Models. J. Math. Biol. 32 109-121.
325. Lack, D. (1948) Natural Selection and family size in the starling. Evolution 2 95-110.
326. Laing, J.S., and Hay, M. (1902) Whooping-cough: its prevalence and mortality in Aberdeen. Public Health 14 584-598.
327. Langlois, J.P., Fahrig, L., Merriam, G., and Artsob, H. (2001) Landscape structure influences-continental distribution of hantavirus in deer mice. Landsc. Ecol. 16 255-266.
328. Levin, S.A., and Durrett, R. (1996) From individuals to epidemics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 351 1615-1621.
329. Levin, S.A., Grenfell, B., Hastings, A., and Perelson, A.S. (1997) Mathematical and Computational Challenges in Population Biology and Ecosystems Science. Science 275 334-343.
330. Levins, R. (1969) Some demographic and genetic consequences of environmental heterogeneity for biological control. Bull. Ent. Soc. Am. 15 237-240.
331. Lewis, M.A. (2000) Spread rate for a nonlinear stochastic invasion. J. Math. Biol. 41 430-454.
332. Liljeros, F., Edling, C.R., and Amaral, L.A.N. (2003) Sexual networks: implications for the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Microbes Infect. 5 189-196.
333. Liljeros, F., Edling, C.R., Amaral, L.A.N., Stanley, H.E., and Åberg, Y. (2001) The web of human sexual contacts. Nature 411 907-908.
334. Lipsitch, M., Bergstrom, C.T., and Levin B.R. (2000) The epidemiology of antibiotic resistance in hospitals: Paradoxes and prescriptions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 97 1938-1943.
335. Lloyd, A.L. (2001) Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic distributions of infectious periods. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 268 985-993.
336. Lloyd, H.G. (1983) Past and present distribution of red and grey squirrels. Mammal Rev. 13 69-80.
337. Lloyd-Smith, J.O., Galvani, A.P., and Getz, W.M. (2003) Curtailing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome within a community and its hospital Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 270 1979-1989.
338. Lloyd-Smith, J.O., Cross, P.C., Briggs, C.J., Daugherty, M., Getz, W.M., Latto, H., Sanchez, M.S., et al. (2005) Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease? Trends Ecol. & Evol. 20 511-519.
339. Lloyd-Smith, J.O., Schreiber, S.J., Kopp, P.E., and Getz, W.M. (2005) Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature 438 355-359.
340. Loehle, C. (1995) Social barriers to pathogen transmission in wild animal populations. Ecology 76 326-335.
341. London, W.P., and Yorke, J.A. (1973) Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps. I. Seasonal variations in contact rates. Am. J. Epidem. 98 453-468.
342. Longini, I.M., Clark,W.S., Byers, R.H.,Ward, J.W., Darrow, W.W., Lemp, G.F., and Hethcote, H.W. (1989) Statistical-Analysis of the Stages of HIV Infection Using a Markov Model. Stats. in Med. 8 831-843.
343. Longini, I.M., Nizam, A., Xu, S.F., Ungchusak, K., Hanshaoworakul, W., Cummings, D.A.T., and Halloran, M.E., (2005) Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309 1083-1087.
344. Lopez, L.F., Coutinho, F.A.B., Burattini, M.N., and Massad, E. (1999) Modelling the spread of infections when the contact rate among individuals is short ranged: Propagation of epidemic waves. Math. Comput. Model. 29 55-69.
345. Lupton, R. (1993) Statistics in theory and practise. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
346. Macdonald, D. (1984) The encyclopedia of mammals. London: Allen and Unwin.
347. MacKenzie, K., and Bishop, S.C. (2001) Developing stochastic epidemiological models to quantify the dynamics of infectious diseases in domestic livestock. J. An. Sci. 79 2047-2056.
348. Marcus, R. (1991) Deterministic and Stochastic Logistic-Models for Describing Increase of Plant Diseases. Crop Prot. 10 155-159.
349. MacKinnon, K. (1978) Competition between red and grey squirrels. Mammal Rev. 8 185-190.
350. Maddison, A.C., Holt, J., and Jeger, M.J. (1996) Spatial dynamics of a monocyclic disease in a perennial crop. Ecol. Model. 88 45-52.
351. Mahul, O., and Durand, B. (2000) Simulated economic consequences of foot-and-mouth disease epidemics and their public control in France. Prev. Vet. Med. 47 23-38.
352. Mangen, M.J.J., Nielen, M., and Burrell, A.M. (2002) Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for classical swine fever epidemics in The Netherlands. Prev. Vet. Med. 56 141-163.
353. Mann, N.H., Cook, A., Millard, A., Bailey, S., and Clokie, M. (2003) Marine ecosystems: Bacterial photosynthesis genes in a virus. Nature 424 741.
354. Marcus, R., Svetlana, F., Talpaz, H., Salomon, R., and Bar-Joseph, M. (1984) On the spatial distribution of citrus tristeza virus disease. Phytoparasitica 12 45-52.
355. May, R.M. (1973) Stability and Complexity in Model Ecoosystems. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
356. May, R.M., and Anderson, R.M. (1979) Population Biology of Infectious Diseases 2. Nature 280 455-461.
357. May, R.M., and Anderson, R.M. (1983) Epidemiology and genetics in the coevolution of parasites and hsots. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. Series B 219 281-313.
358. May, R.M., and Anderson, R.M. (1987) Transmission dynamics of HIV infection. Nature 326 137-142.
359. May, R.M., and Anderson, R.M. (1989) Transmission dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 321 565-607.
360. May, R.M., and Lloyd, A.L. (2001) Infection dynamics on scale-free networks. Phys. Rev. E 64, Art. No. 066112.
361. McCallum, H., and Dobson, A. (2002) Disease, habitat fragmentation and conservation. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 269 2041-2049.
362. McKane, A.J., and Newman T.J. (2005) Predator-prey cycles from resonant amplification of demographic stochasticity. Phys. Rev. Letters 94 Art No. 218102.
363. McKenzie, F.E., Killeen, G.F., Beier, J.C., and Bossert, W.H. (2001) Seasonality, parasite diversity, and local extinctions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Ecology 82 2673-2681.
364. McKusick, M.L., Horstman,W., and Coates, T.J. (1985) AIDS and sexual behaviour reported by gay men in San Francisco. Am. J. Public Health 75 493-496.
365. McLean, A.R., and Anderson, R.M. (1988a) Measles in Developing Countries Part I) Epidemiological Parameters and Patterns. Epidem. & Inf. 100 111-133.
366. McLean, A.R., and Anderson, R.M. (1988b) Measles in Developing Countries Part II. The Predicted Impact of Mass Vaccination. Epidem. & Inf. 100 419-442 (1988).
367. McLean, A.R. (1998) Vaccines and their impact on the control of disease. British Med. Bull. 54 545-556.
368. McLean A.R. (1995) After the honeymoon in measles control. Lancet 345 272.
369. McLean, A.R., and Blower, S.M. (1993) Imperfect vaccines and herd immunity to HIV. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 253 9-13.
370. McManus, T.J., and Envoy, M. (1987) Some aspects of male homosexual behaviour in the United Kingdom. Brit. J. Sex. Med. 14 110-120.
371. Mead, R. (1974) A test for spatial pattern at several scales using data from a grid of contiguous quadrats. Biometrics 30 295-307.
372. Medley, G.F., Lindop, N.A., Edmunds, W.J., and Nokes D.J. (2001) Explaining HBV endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control. Nature Medicine 7 619-624.
373. Meltzer, M.I., Damon, I., LeDuc, J.W., and Millar, J.D. (2001) Modeling potential responses to smallpox as a bioterrorist weapon. Emerg. Inf. Dis. 7 959-969.
374. Mertens, T.E., and LowBeer, D. (1996) HIV and AIDS: Where is the epidemic going? Bull. World Health Organ. 74 121-129.
375. Metz, J.A.J. (1978) The epidemic in a closed population with all susceptibles equally vunerable; some results for large susceptible populations and small initial infections. Acta Biotheoretica 27 75-123.
376. Michael, E., Grenfell, B.T., Isham, V.S., Denham, D.A., and Bundy, D.A.P. (1998) Modelling variability in lymphatic filariasis: macrofilarial dynamics in the Brugia pahangi cat model. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 265 155-165.
377. Michael, E., Malecela-Lazaro, M.N., Simonsen, P.E., Pedersen, E.M., Barker, G., Kumar, A., Kazura, J.W. (2004) Mathematical modelling and the control of lymphatic filariasis. Lancet Infect. Dis. 4 223-234.
378. Miller, E., Vurdien, J.E. and White, J.M. (1992) The Epidemiology of Pertussis in England and Wales. Communicable Disease Report 2 R152-R155.
379. Mills, J.N., Ksiazek, T.G., Peters, C.J., and Childs, J.E. (1999) Long-term studies of hantavirus reservoir populations in the southwestern United States: A synthesis. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 5 135-142.
380. Mollison, D. (1991) Dependence of epidemic and population velocities on basic parameters. Math. Biosci. 107 255-287.
381. Mollison, D., and Ud Din, S. (1993) Deterministic and stochastic models for the seasonal variability of measles transmission. Math. Biosci. 117 155-177.
382. Mollison, D., Isham, V., and Grenfell B. (1994) Epidemics-Models and Data. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. A 157 115-149.
383. Monath, T.P. (1999) Ecology of Marburg and Ebola viruses: speculations and directions for future research. J. Inf. Dis. 179 S127-S138.
384. Montgomery, S.S.J., and Montgomery, W.I. (1988) Cyclic and non-cyclic dynamics in populations of the helminth parasites of wood mice, Apodemus sylvaticus. J. Helminthol. 62 978-990.
385. Moore, C., and Newman, M.E.J. (2000) Epidemics and percolation in small-world networks. Phys. Rev. E 61 5678-5682.
386. Moore, D.A. (1999) Spatial diffusion of raccoon rabies in Pennsylvania, USA. Prev. Vet. Med. 40 19-32.
387. Morens, D.M., Folkers, G.K., and Fauci, A.S. (2004) The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Nature 430 242-249.
388. Morris, N. (2001) Concurrent partnerships and syphilis persistence-New thoughts on an old puzzle. Sex. Trans. Dis. 28 504-507.
389. Morris, R.S., Wilesmith, J.W., Stern, M.W., Sanson, R.L., and Stevenson, M.A. (2001) Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001. Vet. Rec. 149 137-145.
390. Murray, J.D. (1989) Mathematical Biology. New York: Springer-Verlag.
391. Murray, J.D. (1982) Parameter space for Turing instability in reaction diffusion mechanisms: a comparison of models. J. Theor. Biol. 98 143-163.
392. Murray, J.D. (2003) Mathematical Biology (3rd edition) II: Spatial Models and Biomedical Applications. New York: Springer Verlag.
393. Murray, J.D., Stanley, E.A., and Brown, D.L. (1986) On the spatial spread of rabies amoung foxes. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 229 111-150.
394. Narang, H.K. (2001) A critical review of atypical cerebellum-type Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: Its relationship to "new variant" CJD and bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Experimental Biol. and Med. 226 629-639.
395. Nasell, I. (1991) On the Quasi-Stationary Distribution of the Ross Malaria Model. Math. BioSci. 107 187-207.
396. Nasell, I. (1996) The quasi-stationary distribution of the closed endemic SIS model. Adv. Appl. Probab. 28 895-932.
397. Nasell, I. (1999) On the time to extinction in recurrent epidemics. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B 61 309-330.
398. Neal, P. (2003) SIR epidemics on a Bernoulli random graph. J. Appl. Probab. 40 779-782.
399. Neal, P.J., and Roberts, G.O. (2004) Statistical inference and model selection for the 1861 Hagelloch measles epidemic. Biostat. 5 249-261.
400. Nee, S. (1994) How populations persist. Nature 367 123-124.
401. Neubert, M.G., Kot, M., and Lewis, M.A. (1995) Dispersal and pattern formation in a discrete-time predator-prey model. Theor. Pop. Biol. 48 7-43.
402. Newman, M.E.J., and Watts, D.J. (1999) Scaling and percolation in the small-world network model. Phys. Rev. E 60 7332-7342.
403. Newman, M.E.J., Watts, D.J., and Strogatz, S.H. (2002) Random graph models of social networks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99 2566-2572.
404. Newton-Fisher, N.E., Reynolds, V., and Plumptre, A.J. (2000) Food Supply and Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) Party Size in the Budongo Forest Reserve, Uganda. Int. J. Primatol. 21 613-628.
405. Nielen, M., Jalvingh, A.W., Meuwissen, M.P.M., Horst, S.H., and Dijkhuizen, A.A. (1999) Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. II. Comparison of control strategies. Prev. Vet. Med. 42 297-317.
406. Nisbet, R.M. and Gurney, W.S.C (1982) Modelling Fluctuating Populations. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons.
407. Noble, J.V. (1974) Geographic and temporal development of plagues. Nature 250 726-728.
408. Nodelijk, G., de Jong, M.C.M., van Nes, A., Vernooy, J.C.M., van Leengoed, L.A.M.G., Pol, J.M.A, and Verheijden, J.H.M. (2000) Introduction, persistence and fade-out of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in a Dutch breeding herd: a mathematical analysis. Epidemiol. Infect. 124 173-182.
409. Nokes, D.J., and Swinton, J. (1997) Vaccination in pulses: A strategy for global eradication of measles and polio? Trends Microbiol. 5 14-19.
410. Noordegraaf, A.V., Jalvingh, A.W., de Jong, M.C.M., Franken, P., and Dijkhuizen, A.A. (2000) Evaluating control strategies for outbreaks in BHV1-free areas using stochastic and spatial simulation. Prev. Vet. Med. 44 21-42.
411. Nowak, M.A., and May, R.M. (2005) Virus Dynamics. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
412. Øksendal, B. (1998) Stochastic Differential Equations. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
413. O'Neill, P.D., Balding, D.J., Becker, N.G., Eerola, M., and Mollison, D. (2000) Analyses of infectious disease data from household outbreaks by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C 49 517-542.
414. Olsen, L.F., and Schaffer, W.M. (1990) Chaos versus noisy periodicity: alternative hypotheses for childhood epidemics. Science 249 499-504.
415. Onstad, D.W., and Kornkven, E.A. (1992) Persistence and Endemicity of Pathogens in Plant-Populations over Time and Space. Phytopathol. 82 561-566.
416. Orenstein W.A., Papania M.J. and Wharton M.E. (2004) Measles elimination in the United States. J. Infect. Dis. 189 S1-S3.
417. Oxman, G.L., Smolkowski, K., and Noell, J. (1996) Mathematical modeling of epidemic syphilis transmission-Implications for syphilis control programs. Sex. Trans. Dis. 23 30-39.
418. Park, A.W., Gubbins, S., and Gilligan, C.A. (2001) Invasion and persistence of plant parasites in a spatially structured host population. Oikos 94 162-174.
419. Park, A.W., Gubbins, S., and Gilligan, C.A. (2002) Extinction times for closed epidemics: the effects of host spatial structure. Ecol. Lett. 5 747-755.
420. Pascual, M., and Guichard, F. (2005) Criticality and disturbance in spatial ecological systems. Trends Ecol. & Evol. 20 88-95.
421. Pascual, M., Mazzega, P., and Levin, S.A. (2001) Oscillatory Dynamics and Spatial Scale: The Role of Noise and Unresolved Pattern. Ecology 82 2357-2369.
422. Pascual, M., Rodo, X., Ellner, S.P., Colwell, R., and Bouma, M.J. (2000) Cholera dynamics and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Science 289 1766-1769.
423. Paton, D.J., and Greiser-Wilke, I. (2003) Classical swine fever-an update. Res. Vet. Sci. 75 169-178.
424. Petersen, L.R., and Roehrig, J.T. (2001) West Nile virus: A reemerging global pathogen. Emerging Infect. Dis. 7 611-614.
425. Peterson, M.J., Grant,W.E., and Davis, D.S. (1991) Simulation of Host-Parasite Interactions within a Resource-Management Framework-Impact of Brucellosis on Bison Population-Dynamics. Ecol. Model. 54 299-320.
426. Phillips, S.S. (2000) Population trends and the koala conservation debate. Conserv. Biol. 14 650-659.
427. Potterat, J.J., Philips-Plummer, L., Muth, S.Q., Rothenberg, R.B., Woodhouse, D.E., Maldonado-Long, T.S., Zimmerman, H.P., and Muth, J.B. (2002) Risk network structure in the early epidemic phase of HIV transmission in Colorado Springs. Sex. Transm. Infect. 78 i159-i163.
428. Potterat, J.J., Rothenberg, R.B., and Muth, S.Q. (1999) Network structural dynamics and infectious disease propagation. Int. J. STD AIDS 10 182-185.
429. Pourbohloul, B., Rekart, M.L., and Brunham, R.C. (2003) Impact of mass treatment on syphilis transmission-A mathematical modeling approach. Sex. Trans. Dis. 30 297-305.
430. Press, W.H., Teukolsky, S.A., Vetterling, W.T., and Flannery, B.P. (1988) Numerical Recipes in C: The Art of Scientific Computing. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
431. Rand, D.A., and Wilson, H.B. (1991) Chaotic stochasticity-a ubiquitous source of unpredictability in epidemics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 246 179-184.
432. Ransome, A. (1880) On Epidemic Cycles. Proc. Manchester Lit. Phil. Soc. 19 75-96.
433. Ransome, A. (1881) On the Form of the Epidemic Wave and Some of Its Probable Causes. Trans. Epidem. Soc. Lond. 1 96.
434. Ranta, J., Mäkelä, P.H., Takala, A., and Arjas, E. (1999) Predicting the course of meningococcal disease outbreaks in closed subpopulations. Epidemiol. Infect. 123 359-371.
435. Read, J.M., and Keeling, M.J. (2003) Disease Evolution on Networks: the role of Contact Structure. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. 270 699-708.
436. Reluga, T. (2004) A two-phase epidemic driven by diffusion. J. Theor. Biol. 229 249-261.
437. Renshaw, E. (1991) Modelling Biological Populations in Space and Time. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
438. Renton, A.M., Whitaker, L., and Riddlesdell, M. (1998) Heterosexual HIV transmission and STD prevalence: predictions of a theoretical model. Sex. Trans. Inf. 74 339-344.
439. Reynolds, J.C. (1985) Details of the geographic replacement of the red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) by the grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in Eastern England. J. Anim. Ecol. 54 149-162.
440. Rhodes, C.J., and Anderson, R.M. (1996) Dynamics in a lattice epidemic model. Phys. Letts. A 210 183-188.
441. Rhodes, C.J., and Anderson, R.M. (1997) Epidemic thresholds and vaccination in a lattice model of disease spread. Theo. Pop. Biol. 52 101-118.
442. Rhodes, C.J., Atkinson, R.P.D., Anderson, R.M., and MacDonald, D.W. (1998) Rabies in Zimbabwe: reservoir dogs and the implications for disease control. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 353 999-1010.
443. Rhodes, C.J., Jensen, H.J., and Anderson, R.M. (1997) On the critical behaviour of simple epidemics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 264 1639-1649.
444. Riley, S., Fraser, C., Donnelly, C.A., Ghani, A.C., Abu-Raddad, L.J., Hedley, A.J., Leung, G.M., Ho, L.M., Lam, T.H., Thach, T.Q., Chau, P., Chan, K.P., Leung, P.Y., Tsang, T., Ho, W., Lee, K.H., Lau, E.M.C., Ferguson, N.M., and Anderson, R.M. (2003) Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions. Science 300 1961-1966.
445. Roberts, M.G. (1996) The Dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis in Possum Populations, and its Eradication or Control by Culling or Vaccination. J. An. Ecol. 65 451-464.
446. Roberts, M.G., and Saha, A.K. (1999) The asymptotic behaviour of a Logistic Epidemic Model with Stochastic Disease Transmission. Applied Math. Letters 12 37-41.
447. Rohani, P., Earn, D.J., Finkenstädt, B., and Grenfell, B.T. (1998) Population dynamic interference among childhood diseases. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 265 2033-2041.
448. Rohani, P., Earn, D.J.D., and Grenfell, B.T. (1999) Opposite Patterns of Synchrony in Sympatric Disease Metapopulations. Science 286 968-971.
449. Rohani, P., Earn, D.J.D., and Grenfell, B.T. (2000) The Impact of Immunisation on Pertussis Transmission in England & Wales. Lancet 355 285-286.
450. Rohani, P., Green, C.J., Mantilla-Beniers, N.B., and Grenfell, B.T. (2003) Ecological interference between fatal diseases. Nature 422 885-888.
451. Rohani, P., Keeling, M.J., and Grenfell, B.T. (2002) The interplay between determinism and stochasticity in childhood diseases. Am. Nat. 159 469-481.
452. Rohani, P., Wearing, H.J., Vasco, D.A., and Huang, Y. (2006) Understanding Host-Multi-Pathogen Systems: The Interaction Between Ecology and Immunology. Ecology of Infectious Diseases, (eds: Osfeld, Keesing, and Eviner) (in press).
453. Rothenberg, R. (2001) Commentary-How a net works-Implications of network structure for the persistence and control of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV. Sex. Trans. Dis. 28 63-68.
454. Rothenberg, R. (2003) STD transmission dynamics: Some current complexities-2002 Thomas Parran Award Lecture. Sex. Trans. Dis. 30 478-482.
455. Rothenberg, R.B. (1983) The geography of gonorrhea: empirical demonstration of core group transmission. Am. J. Epid. 117 688-694.
456. Rushton, S.P., Lurz, P.W.W., Fuller, R., and Garson, P.J. (1997) Modelling the distribution of the red and grey squirrel at the landscape scale: a combined GIS and population dynamics approach. J. Appl. Ecol. 34 1137-1154.
457. Rushton, S.P., Lurz, P.W.W., Gurnell, J., and Fuller, R. (2000) Modelling the spatial dynamics of parapoxvirus disease in red and grey squirrels: a possible cause of the decline in the red squirrel in the UK? J. Appl. Ecol. 37 997-1012.
458. Sabin, A.B. (1991) Measles, killer of millions in developing countries: strategy for rapid elimination and continuing control. European J. Epidemiol. 7 1-22.
459. Sander, L.M., Warren, C.P., Sokolov, I.M., Simon, C., and Koopman, J. (2002) Percolation on heterogeneous networks as a model for epidemics. Math. Biosci. 180 293-305.
460. Sartwell P.E. (1950) The distribution of incubation periods of infectious disease. Am. J. Hyg. 51 310-318.
461. Sauvage, F., Langlais, M., Yoccoz, N.G., and Pontier, D. (2003) Modelling hantavirus in fluctuating populations of bank voles: the role of indirect transmission on virus persistence. J. Anim. Ecol. 72 1-13.
462. Schenzle, D. (1984) An age-structured model of pre-and post-vaccination measles transmission. IMA J. Math. App. Med. Biol. 1 169-191.
463. Schwartz, I.B., and Smith, H.L. (1983) Infinite Subharmonic Bifurcation in an SEIR Epidemic model. J. Math. Biol. 18 233-253.
464. Seydel, R. (1994) Practical Bifurcation and Stability Analysis. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
465. Shampine, L.F., and Reichelt, M.W. (1997) "The MATLAB ODE Suite," SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing 18 1-22.
466. Shaw, M.W. (1995) Simulation of population expansion and spatial pattern when individual dispersal distributions do not decline exponentially with distance. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 259 243-248.
467. Shea K. (1998) Management of populations in conservation, harvesting and control. Trends Ecol. & Evol. 13 371-375.
468. Shirley, M.D.F., Rushtown, S.P., Smith, G.C., South, A.B., and Lurz, P.W.W. (2003) Investigating the spatial dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in badger populations: evaluating an individual-based simulation model. Ecol. Model. 167 139-157.
469. Shulgin, B., Stone, L., and Agur Z. (1998) Pulse vaccination strategy in the SIR epidemic model. B. Math. Biol. 60 1123-1148.
470. Simpson, R.E.H. (1952) Infectiousness of communicable disease in the household (measles, chickenpox, and mumps). Lancet 263 549-554.
471. Sleeman, C.K., and Mode, C.J. (1997) A methodological study on fitting a nonlinear stochastic model of the AIDS epidemic in Philadelphia. Math. Comput. Model. 26 33-51.
472. Smith, D.L., Lucey, B., Waller, L.A., Childs, J.E., and Real, L.A. (2002) Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99 3668-3672.
473. Smith, G.C. (2001) Models of Mycobacterium bovis in wildlife and cattle. Tuberculosis 81 51-64.
474. Smith, G.C., and Harris, S. (1991) Rabies in Urban Foxes (Vulpes-Vulpes) in Britain-The use of a spatial stochastic simulation-model to examine the pattern of spread and evaluate the efficacy of different control regimes. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 334 459-479.
475. Smith, G.C., and Wilkinson, D. (2003) Modeling control of rabies outbreaks in red fox populations to evaluate culling, vaccination, and vaccination combined with fertility control. J. Wildl. Dis. 39 278-286.
476. Smith, G.C., Cheeseman, C.L., Clifton-Hadley, R.S., and Wilkinson, D. (2001) A model of bovine tuberculosis in the badger Meles meles: an evaluation of control strategies. J. Appl. Ecol. 38 509-519.
477. Sole, R.V., Manrubia, S.C., Benton, M., Kauffman, S., and Bak, P. (1999) Criticality and scaling in evolutionary ecology. Trends Ecol.& Evol. 14 156-160.
478. Soper, H.E. (1929) The Interpretation of Periodicity in Disease Prevalence J. Roy. Stat. Soc. A 92 34-61.
479. Sørensen, S.J., Oregaard, G., De Lipthay, J., and Kroer, N. (2004) Plasmid transfer in aquatic environments. Microbial Ecol. Manual 2004.
480. Stacey A.J., Truscott, J.E., Asher, M.J.C., and Gilligan, C.A. (2004) A model for the invasion and spread of rhizomania in the United Kingdom: Implications for disease control strategies. Phyopathol. 94 209-215.
481. Stark, K.D.C., Pfeiffer, D.U., and Morris, R.S. (2000) Within-farm spread of classical swine fever virus-A blueprint for a stochastic simulation model. Vet. Q. 22 36-43.
482. Stigum, H., Magnus, P., and Bakketeig, L.S. (1997) Effect of changing partnership formation rates on the spread of sexually transmitted diseases and human immunodeficiency virus. Am. J. Epid. 145 644-652.
483. Stollenwerk, N., and Briggs, K.M. (2000) Master equation solution of a plant disease model. Phys. Lett. A 274 84-91.
484. Stollenwerk, N., and Jansen, V.A.A. (2003) Meningitis, pathogenicity near criticality: the epidemiology of meningococcal disease as a model for accidental pathogens. J. Theo. Biol. 222 347-359.
485. Strang, G. (1986) Introduction to Applied Mathematics. Wellesley, MA:Wellesley-Cambridge Press.
486. Strikas, R.A., Anderson, L.J., and Parker, R.A. (1986) Temporal and geographic patterns of isolates of nonpolio enterovirus in the United States, 1970-1983. J. Infect. Dis. 153 346-51.
487. Suppo, C., Naulin, J.M., Langlais, M., and Artois, M. (2000) A modelling approach to vaccination and contraception programmes for rabies control in fox populations. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 267 1575-1582.
488. Swinton, J., Harwood, J., Grenfell, B., and Gilligan, C. (1998) Persistence Thresholds for Phocine Distemper Virus Infection in Harbour Seal Phoca Vitulina Metapopulations. J. Anim. Ecol. 67 54-68.
489. Swinton, J., and Gilligan, C.A. (1996) Dutch elm disease and the future of the elm in the UK: A quantitative analysis. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 351 605-615.
490. Szendroi, B., and Csanyi, G. (2004) Polynomial epidemics and clustering in contact networks. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 271 S364-S366.
491. Tang, C., and Bak, P. (1988) Critical Exponents and Scaling Relations for Self-Organized Critical Phenomena. Phys. Rev. Let. 60 2347-2350.
492. Terpstra, C., Wensvoort, G., and Pol, J.M.A. (1991) Experimental reproduction of porcine epidemic abortion and respiratory sydrome (mystery swine disease) by infection with Lelystad virus: Koch's postulates fulfilled. Vet. Q. 13 131-136.
493. Thrall, P.H., Godfree, R., and Burdon, J.J. (2003) Influence of spatial structure on pathogen colonization and extinction: a test using an experimental metapopulation. Plant Pathol. 52 350-361.
494. Tildesley, M.J., Savill, N.J., Shaw, D.J., Deardon, R., Brooks, S.P.,Woolhouse, M.E.J., Grenfell, B.T., and Keeling, M.J. (2006) Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in Great Britain. Nature 440 83-86.
495. Tille, A., Lefevre, C., Pastoret, P.P., and Thiry, E. (1991) A Mathematical-Model of Rinderpest Infection in Cattle Populations. Epidemiol. Infect. 107 441-452.
496. Tischendorf, L., Thulke, H.H., Staubach, C., Muller, M.S., Jeltsch, F., Goretzki, J., Selhorst, T., Muller, T., Schluter, H., and Wissel, C. (1998) Chance and risk of controlling rabies in large-scale and long-term immunized fox populations. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 265 839-846.
497. Tompkins, D.M., White, A.R., and Boots, M. (2003) Ecological replacement of native red squirrels by invasive greys driven by disease. Ecol. Letters 6 189-196.
498. Tong, H. (1990) Non-linear time series. A dynamical system approach Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
499. Turing, A. (1952) The Chemical Basis of Morphogenesis. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 237 37-72.
500. UNAIDS/WHO (2002) AIDS epidemic update. http://www.who.int/hiv/en/.
501. van Baalen, M., and Rand, D.A. (1998) The unit of selection in viscous populations and the evolution of altruism. J. Theor. Biol. 193 631-648.
502. van Buskirk, J., and Ostfeld, R.S. (1998) Habitat heterogeneity, dispersal, and local risk of exposure to Lyme disease. Ecol. Appl. 8 365-378.
503. van den Bosch, F., Metz, J.A.J., and Diekmann, O. (1990) The Velocity of Spatial Population Expansion. J. Math. Biol. 28 529-565.
504. van Herwaarden, O.A. (1997) Stochastic epidemics: the probability of extinction of an infectious disease at the end of a major outbreak. J. Math. Biol. 35 793-813.
505. Vasco, D.A., Wearing, H.J., and Rohani, P. (2007) Tracking the Dynamics of Pathogen Interactions: Modeling Ecological and Immune-Mediated Processes in a Two-Pathogen Single-Host System. J. Theor. Biol. (in press).
506. Viboud, C., Bjornstad, O.N., Smith, D.L., Simonsen, L., Miller, M.A., and Grenfell, B.T. (2006) Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312 447-451.
507. Viet, A.F., and Medley, G.F. (2006). Stochastic dynamics of immunity in populations: a general framework. Math. Biosci. 200 28-43.
508. Wallace, R., and Wallace, D. (1993) Inner-City Disease and the Public-Health of the Suburbs-the Sociogeographic Dispersion of Point-Source Infection. Environ. Plan. A 25 1707-1723.
509. Waltmann, P. (1974) Deterministic Threshold Models in the Theory of Epidemics. New York: Springer-Verlag.
510. Watts, D.J. (1999) Small Worlds: The Dynamics of Networks Between Order and Randomness. Priceton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
511. Watts, D.J., and Strogatz, S.H. (1998) Collective dynamics of 'small-world' networks. Nature 393 440-442.
512. Wearing, H.J., and Rohani, P. (2006) Ecological and Immunological Determinants of Dengue Epidemics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103 11802-11807.
513. Wearing, H.J., Rohani, P., and Keeling, M.J. (2005) Appropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases. PLoS Medicine 2 e174.
514. Webb, G.F., and Blaser, M.J. (2002) Mailborne transmission of anthrax: Modeling and implications. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99 7027-7032.
515. Wein, L.M., Craft, D.L., and Kaplan, E.H. (2003) Emergency response to an anthrax attack. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 100 4346-4351.
516. Welte, R., Kretzschmar, M., Leidl, R., Van den Hoek, A., Jager, J.C., and Postma, M.J. (2000) Costeffectiveness of screening programs for Chlamydia trachomatis-A population-based dynamic approach. Sex. Trans. Dis. 27 518-529.
517. White, A., Begon, M., and Bowers, R.G. (1996) Host-pathogen cycles in self-regulated forest insect systems: Resolving conflicting predictions. Am. Nat. 148 220-225.
518. White, L.J., Cox, M.J., and Medley, G.F. (1998) Cross immunity and vaccination against multiple microparasite strains. IMA J. Math. Appl. Med. 15 211-233.
519. White, L.J.,Waris, M., Cane, P.A., Nokes, D.J., and Medley, G.F. (2005). The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England & Wales and Finland: seasonality and cross-protection. Epidemiol. & Infect. 133 279-289.
520. White, P.C.L., and Harris, S. (1995) Bovine tuberculosis in badger (Meles meles) populations in southwest England: the use of a spatial stochastic simulation model to understand the dynamics of the disease. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 349 391-413.
521. White, P.J., Norman, R.A., Trout, R.C., Gould, E.A., and Hudson, P.J. (2001) The emergence of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus: will a non-pathogenic strain protect the UK? Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 356 1087-1095.
522. Wilkinson, D., Smith, G.C., Delahay, R.J., and Cheeseman, C.L. (2001) A model of bovine tuberculosis in the badger Meles meles: an evaluation of different vaccination strategies. J. Appl. Ecol. 41 492-501.
523. Wills, R.W., Zimmerman, J.J., Yoon, K.J., McGinley, M.J., Hill, H.T., Platt, K.B., Christopher-Hennings, J., and Nelson, E.A. (1997) Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus: a persistent infection. Vet. Microbiol. 55 231-240.
524. Wilson, M.E. (2003) The traveller and emerging infections: sentinel, courier, transmitter. J. Appl. Microbiol 94 S1-S11.
525. Wonnacott, R., and Wonnacott, T. (1990) Introductory Statistics. John Wiley and Sons.
526. Woolhouse, M., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D., Friar, J., Matthews, L., Hughes, G., Shaw, D., Wilesmith, J., Donaldson, A., Cornell, S., Keeling, M., and Grenfell, B. (2001a) Epidemiology: Foot-and-mouth disease under control in the UK) Nature. 411 258-259.
527. Woolhouse, M.E.J., Taylor, L.H., and Haydon, D.T. (2001b) Population biology of multihost pathogens) Science. 292 1109-1112.
528. Woolhouse, M.E.J. (2002) Population biology of emerging and re-emerging pathogens. Trends in Microbiol. 10 S3-S7.
529. Woolhouse, M.E.J. (2003) Foot-and-mouth disease in the UK: What should we do next time? J. Appl. Microbiol. 94 126S-130S.
530. Woolhouse, M.E.J., Haydon, D.T., and Antia, R. (2005) Emerging pathogens: the epidemiology and evolution of species jumps. Trends Ecol. & Evol. 20 238 244.
531. Xia, Y.C., Bjørnstad, O.N., and Grenfell, B.T. (2004) Measles metapopulation dynamics: A gravity model for epidemiological coupling and dynamics. Am. Nat. 164 267-281.
532. Xu, C., Boyce, M.S., and Daley, D.J. (2005) Harvesting in seasonal environments. J. Math. Biol. 50 663-682.
533. Yorke, J.A., and London, W.P. (1973) Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps; II systematic difference in contact rates and stochastic effects. Am. J. Epidemiology 98 469-482.