Skeletons, noise and population growth: The end of an old debate?

Trends in Ecology and Evolution

Volumn 19, Issue 7, 2004, Pages 359-364

  Coulson, Tim ^a   Rohani, Pejman ^b   Pascual, Mercedes ^c  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION MODELING;

EID: 3042553395     PISSN: 01695347     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2004.05.008     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Lotka A.J. Elements of Physical Biology. 1925;Williams and Wilkins
2. Volterra V. Fluctuations in the abundance of a species considered mathematically. Nature. 118:1926;558-560
3. Elton C.S. Periodic fluctuations in the number of animals: their cause and effects. Br. J. Exp. Biol. 2:1924;119-163
4. Nicholson A.J. The self-adjustment of populations to change. Cold Spring Harb. Symp. Quant. Biol. 22:1957;153-172
5. May R.M. Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics. Nature. 261:1976;459-467
6. Leirs H., et al. Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent. Nature. 389:1997;176-180
7. Bjornstad O.N., Grenfell B.T. Noisy clockwork: time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science. 293:2001;638-643
8. Chesson P. Stochastic population models. Kolasa J., Pickett S.T.A. Ecological Heterogeneityy. 1991;123-143 Springer Verlag
9. Chesson P. Making sense of spatial models in ecology. Bascompte J., Solé R.V. Modelling Spatiotemporal Dynamics in Ecology. 1997;151-166 Springer-Verlag
10. Grenfell B.T., et al. Noise and determinism in synchronised sheep dynamics. Nature. 394:1998;674-677
11. Dennis B., et al. Estimating chaos and complex dynamics in an insect population. Ecol. Monogr. 71:2001;277-303
12. Cushing, J.M. (1998) An Introduction To Structured Population Dynamics, SIAM Society for Industrial & Applied Mathematics.
13. Royama T. Analytic Population Dynamics. 1992;Chapman & Hall
14. Bjornstad O.N., et al. Geographic gradient in small rodent density-fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B. 262:1995;127-133
15. Tuljapurkar S., Caswell H. Structured-Population Models in Marine, Terrestrial, and Freshwater Systems. 1997;Chapman & Hall
16. Turchin P. Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis. 2003;Princeton University Press
17. Stenseth N.C., et al. Seasonal forcing on the dynamics of Clethrionomys rufocanus: modelling geographic gradients in population dynamics. Res. Popul. Ecol. 40:1998;85-95
18. Mysterud A., et al. The role of males in the dynamics of ungulate populations. J. Anim. Ecol. 71:2002;907-915
19. Burnham K.P., Anderson D.R. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. 2002;Springer-Verlag
20. Ginsberg L.R., Jensen C.X.J. Rules of thumb for judging ecological theories. Trends Ecol. Evol. 19:2004;121-126
21. Rand D.A., Wilson H.B. Chaotic stochasticity: a ubiquitous source of unpredictability in epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B. 246:1991;179-184
22. Cushing J.M., et al. Moving toward an unstable equilibrium: saddle nodes in population systems. J. Anim. Ecol. 67:1998;298-306
23. Sidorowich J.J. Repellors attract attention. Nature. 355:1992;584-585
24. Aparicio J.P., Solari H.G. Sustained oscillations in stochastic systems. Math. Biosci. 169:2001;15-25
25. Higgins K., et al. Stochastic dynamics and deterministic skeletons, population dynamics of Dungeness crab. Science. 276:1997;1431-1435
26. Greenman J.V., Benton T.G. The amplification of environmental noise in population models: causes and consequences. Am. Nat. 161:2003;225-239
27. Berryman A. Population Cycles: The Case for Trophic Interactions. 2002;Oxford University Press
28. Iwasa, Y. (2000) Lattice models and pair approximation in ecology. In Lattice Models and Pair Approximation in Ecology (Dieckmann, U. et al., eds), pp. 227-52, Cambridge University Press.
29. Eames K.T.D., Keeling M.J. Modelling dynamic and network heterogeneities in the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 99:2003;13330-13335
30. Pascual M., et al. Oscillatory dynamics and spatial scale: the role of noise and unresolved pattern. Ecology. 82:2001;2357-2369
31. Nisbet R.M., Gurney W.S.C. Modelling Fluctuating Populations. 1982;John Wiley & Sons
32. Henson S.M., et al. Lattice effects observed in chaotic dynamics of experimental populations. Science. 294:2001;602-605
33. Durrett R., Levin S.A. The importance of being discrete and spatial. Theor. Popul. Biol. 46:1994;363-394
34. Stenseth N.C., et al. Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science. 297:2002;1292-1296
35. Millonas M. Fluctuations and Order. The New Synthesis. 1995;Springer Verlag
36. Earn D.J.D., et al. A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics. Science. 287:2000;667-670
37. Okubo A., Levin S.A. Diffusion and Ecological Problems: Modern Perspectives. 2nd edn Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics. Vol. 14:2001;Springer-Verlag
38. Coulson T., et al. Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science. 292:2001;1528-1531
39. Rohani P., et al. Opposite patterns of synchrony in sympatric disease metapopulations. Science. 286:1999;968-971
40. Rohani P., et al. The interplay between noise and determinism in childhood diseases. Am. Nat. 159:2002;469-481
41. Koelle, K. and Pascual, M. Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera. Am. Nat. (in press).
42. Ellner S.P., Turchin P. Chaos in a 'noisy' world: new methods and evidence from time series analysis. Am. Nat. 145:1995;343-375
43. Pascual M., Mazzega P. Quasicycles revisited: apparent sensitivity to initial conditions. Theor. Pop. Biol. 64:2003;385-395
44. Kendall B.E., et al. Why do populations cycle? A synthesis of statistical and mechanistic modelling approaches. Ecology. 80:1999;1789-1805
45. May R.M. Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems. 2001;Princeton University Press