메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 286, Issue 5441, 1999, Pages 968-971

Opposite patterns of synchrony in sympatric disease metapopulations

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; MEASLES; MEASLES VACCINATION; PERTUSSIS; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PREVALENCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 0033615482     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.286.5441.968     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (265)

References (48)
  • 1
    • 0016394337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. M. May, Science 186, 645 (1974); T. Royama, Analytical Population Dynamics (Chapman and Hall, London, 1992); C. Zimmer, Science 284, 83 (1999).
    • (1974) Science , vol.186 , pp. 645
    • May, R.M.1
  • 2
    • 0016394337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chapman and Hall, London
    • R. M. May, Science 186, 645 (1974); T. Royama, Analytical Population Dynamics (Chapman and Hall, London, 1992); C. Zimmer, Science 284, 83 (1999).
    • (1992) Analytical Population Dynamics
    • Royama, T.1
  • 3
    • 0016394337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. M. May, Science 186, 645 (1974); T. Royama, Analytical Population Dynamics (Chapman and Hall, London, 1992); C. Zimmer, Science 284, 83 (1999).
    • (1999) Science , vol.284 , pp. 83
    • Zimmer, C.1
  • 4
    • 0000065728 scopus 로고
    • R. Levins, Bull. Entomol. Soc. Am. 15, 237 (1969); J. H. Brown and A. Kodric-Brown, Ecology 58, 445 (1977).
    • (1969) Bull. Entomol. Soc. Am. , vol.15 , pp. 237
    • Levins, R.1
  • 5
    • 0001011081 scopus 로고
    • R. Levins, Bull. Entomol. Soc. Am. 15, 237 (1969); J. H. Brown and A. Kodric-Brown, Ecology 58, 445 (1977).
    • (1977) Ecology , vol.58 , pp. 445
    • Brown, J.H.1    Kodric-Brown, A.2
  • 7
    • 0031015249 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. F. Costantino, R. A. Desharnais, J. M. Cushing, B. Dennis, Science 275, 389 (1997); M. J. Keeling and B. T. Grenfell, Science 275, 65 (1997).
    • (1997) Science , vol.275 , pp. 65
    • Keeling, M.J.1    Grenfell, B.T.2
  • 8
    • 0032514553 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • B. T. Grenfell et al., Nature 394, 674 (1998); K. Higgins, A. Hastings, J. N. Sarvela, L. W. Botsford, Science 276, 1431 (1997).
    • (1998) Nature , vol.394 , pp. 674
    • Grenfell, B.T.1
  • 10
    • 0026268962 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • M. P. Hassell, H. N. Comins, R. M. May, Nature 353, 255 (1991); S. A. Levin, B. T. Grenfell, A. Hastings, A. S. Perelson, Science 275, 334 (1997); D. Grünbaum, Am. Nat. 151, 97 (1998); I. Hanski, Nature 396, 41 (1998); J. Swinton, J. Harwood, B. T. Grenfell, C. A. Gilligan, J. Anim. Evol. 67, 56 (1998).
    • (1991) Nature , vol.353 , pp. 255
    • Hassell, M.P.1    Comins, H.N.2    May, R.M.3
  • 11
    • 0030620646 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • M. P. Hassell, H. N. Comins, R. M. May, Nature 353, 255 (1991); S. A. Levin, B. T. Grenfell, A. Hastings, A. S. Perelson, Science 275, 334 (1997); D. Grünbaum, Am. Nat. 151, 97 (1998); I. Hanski, Nature 396, 41 (1998); J. Swinton, J. Harwood, B. T. Grenfell, C. A. Gilligan, J. Anim. Evol. 67, 56 (1998).
    • (1997) Science , vol.275 , pp. 334
    • Levin, S.A.1    Grenfell, B.T.2    Hastings, A.3    Perelson, A.S.4
  • 12
    • 0031913729 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • M. P. Hassell, H. N. Comins, R. M. May, Nature 353, 255 (1991); S. A. Levin, B. T. Grenfell, A. Hastings, A. S. Perelson, Science 275, 334 (1997); D. Grünbaum, Am. Nat. 151, 97 (1998); I. Hanski, Nature 396, 41 (1998); J. Swinton, J. Harwood, B. T. Grenfell, C. A. Gilligan, J. Anim. Evol. 67, 56 (1998).
    • (1998) Am. Nat. , vol.151 , pp. 97
    • Grünbaum, D.1
  • 13
    • 0032487859 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • M. P. Hassell, H. N. Comins, R. M. May, Nature 353, 255 (1991); S. A. Levin, B. T. Grenfell, A. Hastings, A. S. Perelson, Science 275, 334 (1997); D. Grünbaum, Am. Nat. 151, 97 (1998); I. Hanski, Nature 396, 41 (1998); J. Swinton, J. Harwood, B. T. Grenfell, C. A. Gilligan, J. Anim. Evol. 67, 56 (1998).
    • (1998) Nature , vol.396 , pp. 41
    • Hanski, I.1
  • 14
    • 0026268962 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • M. P. Hassell, H. N. Comins, R. M. May, Nature 353, 255 (1991); S. A. Levin, B. T. Grenfell, A. Hastings, A. S. Perelson, Science 275, 334 (1997); D. Grünbaum, Am. Nat. 151, 97 (1998); I. Hanski, Nature 396, 41 (1998); J. Swinton, J. Harwood, B. T. Grenfell, C. A. Gilligan, J. Anim. Evol. 67, 56 (1998).
    • (1998) J. Anim. Evol. , vol.67 , pp. 56
    • Swinton, J.1    Harwood, J.2    Grenfell, B.T.3    Gilligan, C.A.4
  • 17
    • 0000990735 scopus 로고
    • M. P. Hassell, J. H. Lawton, R. M. May, J. Anim. Ecol. 46, 249 (1976); G. Sugihara and R. M. May, Nature 344, 734 (1990); S. P. Ellner and P. Turchin, Am. Nat. 145, 343 (1995).
    • (1976) J. Anim. Ecol. , vol.46 , pp. 249
    • Hassell, M.P.1    Lawton, J.H.2    May, R.M.3
  • 18
    • 0025199496 scopus 로고
    • M. P. Hassell, J. H. Lawton, R. M. May, J. Anim. Ecol. 46, 249 (1976); G. Sugihara and R. M. May, Nature 344, 734 (1990); S. P. Ellner and P. Turchin, Am. Nat. 145, 343 (1995).
    • (1990) Nature , vol.344 , pp. 734
    • Sugihara, G.1    May, R.M.2
  • 19
    • 0028973866 scopus 로고
    • M. P. Hassell, J. H. Lawton, R. M. May, J. Anim. Ecol. 46, 249 (1976); G. Sugihara and R. M. May, Nature 344, 734 (1990); S. P. Ellner and P. Turchin, Am. Nat. 145, 343 (1995).
    • (1995) Am. Nat. , vol.145 , pp. 343
    • Ellner, S.P.1    Turchin, P.2
  • 21
    • 0003022391 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • B. T. Grenfell and B. M. Bolker, Ecol. Lett. 1, 63 (1998); D. Schenzle, IMA (Inst. Math. Appl.) J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 1, 169 (1984). The weekly case reports of measles and whooping cough are published in the Registrar General's Weekly Returns. These data have been estimated to represent about 50 to 60% of the actual cases for measles and 5 to 25% for whooping cough [J. A. Clarkson and P. E. M. Fine, Int. J. Epidemiol. 14, 153 (1985)]. Although notification efficiency may affect the magnitudes of case reports, it will not create or alter the large-scale spatiotemporal trends observed in these data. Further, previous work has demonstrated very strong correlation between notified case reports, serological isolations of, for example, B. pertussis by the Public Health Laboratory Service, and independent notifications provided by the Royal College of General Practitioners General Practice Research Unit [(25); E. Miller, J. E. Vurdien, J. M. White, Communicable Dis. Rep. 2, R152 (1992)].
    • (1998) Ecol. Lett. , vol.1 , pp. 63
    • Grenfell, B.T.1    Bolker, B.M.2
  • 22
    • 77957185501 scopus 로고
    • B. T. Grenfell and B. M. Bolker, Ecol. Lett. 1, 63 (1998); D. Schenzle, IMA (Inst. Math. Appl.) J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 1, 169 (1984). The weekly case reports of measles and whooping cough are published in the Registrar General's Weekly Returns. These data have been estimated to represent about 50 to 60% of the actual cases for measles and 5 to 25% for whooping cough [J. A. Clarkson and P. E. M. Fine, Int. J. Epidemiol. 14, 153 (1985)]. Although notification efficiency may affect the magnitudes of case reports, it will not create or alter the large-scale spatiotemporal trends observed in these data. Further, previous work has demonstrated very strong correlation between notified case reports, serological isolations of, for example, B. pertussis by the Public Health Laboratory Service, and independent notifications provided by the Royal College of General Practitioners General Practice Research Unit [(25); E. Miller, J. E. Vurdien, J. M. White, Communicable Dis. Rep. 2, R152 (1992)].
    • (1984) IMA (Inst. Math. Appl.) J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. , vol.1 , pp. 169
    • Schenzle, D.1
  • 23
    • 0021958163 scopus 로고
    • B. T. Grenfell and B. M. Bolker, Ecol. Lett. 1, 63 (1998); D. Schenzle, IMA (Inst. Math. Appl.) J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 1, 169 (1984). The weekly case reports of measles and whooping cough are published in the Registrar General's Weekly Returns. These data have been estimated to represent about 50 to 60% of the actual cases for measles and 5 to 25% for whooping cough [J. A. Clarkson and P. E. M. Fine, Int. J. Epidemiol. 14, 153 (1985)]. Although notification efficiency may affect the magnitudes of case reports, it will not create or alter the large-scale spatiotemporal trends observed in these data. Further, previous work has demonstrated very strong correlation between notified case reports, serological isolations of, for example, B. pertussis by the Public Health Laboratory Service, and independent notifications provided by the Royal College of General Practitioners General Practice Research Unit [(25); E. Miller, J. E. Vurdien, J. M. White, Communicable Dis. Rep. 2, R152 (1992)].
    • (1985) Int. J. Epidemiol. , vol.14 , pp. 153
    • Clarkson, J.A.1    Fine, P.E.M.2
  • 24
    • 0041113561 scopus 로고
    • B. T. Grenfell and B. M. Bolker, Ecol. Lett. 1, 63 (1998); D. Schenzle, IMA (Inst. Math. Appl.) J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 1, 169 (1984). The weekly case reports of measles and whooping cough are published in the Registrar General's Weekly Returns. These data have been estimated to represent about 50 to 60% of the actual cases for measles and 5 to 25% for whooping cough [J. A. Clarkson and P. E. M. Fine, Int. J. Epidemiol. 14, 153 (1985)]. Although notification efficiency may affect the magnitudes of case reports, it will not create or alter the large-scale spatiotemporal trends observed in these data. Further, previous work has demonstrated very strong correlation between notified case reports, serological isolations of, for example, B. pertussis by the Public Health Laboratory Service, and independent notifications provided by the Royal College of General Practitioners General Practice Research Unit [(25); E. Miller, J. E. Vurdien, J. M. White, Communicable Dis. Rep. 2, R152 (1992)].
    • (1992) Communicable Dis. Rep. , vol.2
    • Miller, E.1    Vurdien, J.E.2    White, J.M.3
  • 29
    • 0344816239 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • The infectious period for whooping cough consists of two characteristically very distinct phases: a catarrhal phase (symptoms include a mild fever and a cough), which lasts about 2 weeks, and the paroxysmal phase (intense bouts of coughing punctuated by the "whoop"). A case would be successfully diagnosed as pertussis at the start of the whooping phase, and, hence, for epidemiological purposes, the infectious period effectively lasts 14 days (assuming susceptibles in the family would have been infected by this time). Our results are not qualitatively affected by this assumption.
  • 30
    • 0030867201 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • H. W. Hethcote, Math. Biosci. 145, 89 (1997); Can. Appl. Math. Q. 6, 61 (1998).
    • (1997) Math. Biosci. , vol.145 , pp. 89
    • Hethcote, H.W.1
  • 31
    • 0030867201 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • H. W. Hethcote, Math. Biosci. 145, 89 (1997); Can. Appl. Math. Q. 6, 61 (1998).
    • (1998) Can. Appl. Math. Q , vol.6 , pp. 61
  • 33
    • 0031984398 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • P. T. Scott, J. B. Clark, W. F. Miser, Am. Fam. Phys. 56, 1121 (1997); J. D. Cherry, Ann. Intern. Med. 128, 64 (1998).
    • (1998) Ann. Intern. Med. , vol.128 , pp. 64
    • Cherry, J.D.1
  • 40
    • 0345247302 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Environmental and demographic noise have little impact on the prevaccination biennial pattern of measles outbreaks, whereas they affect pertussis dynamics markedly (P. Rohani, M. J. Keeling, B. T. Grenfell, in preparation). This is caused by the differences in the local stability properties over the deterministic attractor for the two infections.
  • 41
    • 0345678986 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • For the unforced SEIR system, the natural (damping) period of oscillations is T ≈ 2π √AD, where A is the mean age at infection and D is the sum of infectious and incubation periods (9). For whooping cough before vaccination, the mean age at infection is 2 to 5 years and D = 0.055 years, giving a natural period of between 2.08 and 3.2 years. After vaccination, A would have risen to 5 to 7 years, giving a natural period of between 3.3 and 4.1 years. In (unforced) models with demographic or environmental stochasticity, resonance ensures that these oscillations are sustained, giving outbreaks with period T (assuming the population size is sufficiently large to avoid extinction of the pathogen) (9).
  • 44
    • 0027136227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Z. Agur, L. Cojocaru, G. Mazor, R. M. Anderson, Y. L. Danon, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 90, 11698 (1993); D. J. Nokes and J. Swinton, IMA (Inst. Appl. Math.) J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 12, 29 (1997); B. Shulgin, L Stone, Z. Agur, Bull. Math. Biol. 60, 1123 (1998).
    • (1997) IMA (Inst. Appl. Math.) J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. , vol.12 , pp. 29
    • Nokes, D.J.1    Swinton, J.2
  • 45
    • 0032213158 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Z. Agur, L. Cojocaru, G. Mazor, R. M. Anderson, Y. L. Danon, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 90, 11698 (1993); D. J. Nokes and J. Swinton, IMA (Inst. Appl. Math.) J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 12, 29 (1997); B. Shulgin, L Stone, Z. Agur, Bull. Math. Biol. 60, 1123 (1998).
    • (1998) Bull. Math. Biol. , vol.60 , pp. 1123
    • Shulgin, B.1    Stone, L.2    Agur, Z.3
  • 48
    • 0345678985 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • We thank O. Bjørnstad, B. Bolker, B. Finkenstädt, R. Hamilton, M. Keeling, J. Swinton, and two anonymous reviewers for comments on this paper. P.R. was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council Postdoctoral Research Fellowship. D.J.D.E. was supported by a Wellcome Trust Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Mathematical Biology. B.T.G. is supported by the Wellcome Trust.


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.