Ecological interference between fatal diseases

Nature

Volumn 422, Issue 6934, 2003, Pages 885-888

  Rohani, P ^a   Green, C J ^b   Mantilla Beniers, N B ^b   Grenfell, B T ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASES; VIRUSES;

ECOLOGICAL INTERFERENCE;

ECOLOGY;

MEDICINE; PATHOGEN; POPULATION DYNAMICS;

ARTICLE; BACTERIAL INFECTION; BIRTH RATE; CHICKENPOX; CHILD; CHILDHOOD DISEASE; EPIDEMIC; HUMAN; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MEASLES; MUMPS; PERTUSSIS; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RUBELLA; VIRUS INFECTION;

ACUTE DISEASE; BIRTH RATE; BORDETELLA PERTUSSIS; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; COMPETITIVE BEHAVIOR; CROSS REACTIONS; ECOLOGY; HUMANS; MEASLES; MEASLES VIRUS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; QUARANTINE; TIME FACTORS; WHOOPING COUGH;

BACTERIA (MICROORGANISMS); RUBELLA VIRUS;

EID: 0037464561     PISSN: 00280836     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nature01542     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Gog, J. R. & Swinton, J. A. A status-based approach to multiple strain dynamics. J. Math. Biol. 44, 169-184 (2002).
2. Gupta, S., Ferguson, N. M. & Anderson, R. M. Chaos, persistence and evolution of strain structure in antigenically diverse infectious agents. Science 280, 912-915 (1998).
3. Gomes, M. G. M., Medley, G. F. & Nokes, D. J. On the determinants of population structure in antigenically diverse pathogens. Proc. R. Soc. Land. B 269, 227-233 (2002).
4. Dietz, K. Epidemiologic interference of virus populations. J. Math. Biol. 8, 291-300 (1979).
5. Creighton, C. A History of Epidemics in Britain (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1894).
6. Rohani, P., Earn, D. J. D., Finkenstadt, B. F. & Grenfell, B. T. Population dynamic interference among childhood diseases. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 265, 2033-2041 (1998).
7. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 1991).
8. Earn, D. J. D., Rohani, P., Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics. Science 287, 667-670 (2000).
9. Rand, D. A. & Wilson, H. B. Chaotic stochasticity: a ubiquitous source of unpredictability in epidemics. Proc. R. Soc Lond. B 246, 179-184 (1991).
10. McLean, A. & Anderson, R. Measles in developing countries part I. Epidemiological parameters and patterns. Epidemiol. Infect. 100, 111-133 (1988).
11. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. Directly transmitted infectious diseases: control by vaccination. Science 215, 1053-1060 (1982).
12. Schenzle, D. An age-structured model of pro- and post-vaccination measles transmission. IMA J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 1, 169-191 (1984).
13. Rohani, P., Earn, D. J. D. & Grenfell, B. T. Opposite patterns of synchrony in sympatric disease metapopulations. Science 286, 968-971 (1999).
14. Butler, W. Measles. Proc. R. Soc. Med. 6, 120-153 (1913).
15. Kamo, M. & Sasaki, A. The effects of cross-immunity and seasonal forcing in a multi-strain epidemic model. Physica D 165, 228-241 (2002).
16. Wenjie, W. Control of dengue/dengue haemorrhagic fever in china. Dengue Bull. 21 (http://w3.whosea.org/DengueBulletin21/ch3f.htm) (1997).
17. Focks, D. A., Brenner, R. J., Hayes, J. & Daniels, E. Transmission thresholds for dengue in terms of Aedes aegypti pupae per person with discussion of their utility in source. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 62, 11-18 (2000).
18. Hales, S., de Wet, N., Maindonald, J. & Woodward, A. Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model. Lancet 360, 830-834 (2002).
19. Kurane, I., Mady, B. J. & Ennis, F. A. Antibody-dependent enhancement of dengue virus infection. Rev. Med. Virol. 1, 211-222 (1991).
20. Behrman, R. E. & Kliegman, R. M. Nelson Essentials of Pediatrics (Saunders, Philadelphia, 1998).
21. Cherry, J. D. Pertussis in adults. Ann. Intern. Med. 128, 64-66 (1998).
22. Miller, E. & Gay, N. Epidemiological determinants of pertussis. Dev. Biol. Stand. 89, 15-23 (1997).
23. Keeling, M. J., Rohani, P. & Grenfell, B. T. Seasonally forced disease dynamics explored as switching between attractors. Physica D 148, 317-335 (2001).
24. Butler, W. Whooping cough and measles. Proc. R. Soc. Med. 40, 384-398 (1947).
25. Bartlett, M. S. Measles periodicity and community size. J. R. Stat. Soc. 1, 48-59 (1957).
26. Soper, H. E. The interpretation of periodicity in disease prevalence. J. R. Stat. Soc. 92, 34-73 (1929).
27. Linnert, L. A statistical report on measles notifications in Manchester, 1917-1951. (Department of Mathematical Statistics, Manchester, UK, 1954).
28. Grenfell, B. T., Bjornstad, O. N. & Kappey, J. Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414, 716-723 (2001).
29. Torrence, C. & Compo, G. P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 79, 61-78 (1998).
30. Buonaccorsi, J. P., Elkington, J. S., Evans, S. R. & Liebhold, A. M. Measuring and testing for spatial synchrony. Ecology 82, 1668-1679 (2001).