Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States

Nature

Volumn 433, Issue 7024, 2005, Pages 417-421

  Grassly, Nicholas C ^a   Fraser, Christophe ^a   Garnett, Geoffrey P ^a  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECOLOGY; EPIDEMIOLOGY; IMMUNIZATION; POPULATION STATISTICS;

IMMUNE RESPONSE; POPULATION NUMBERS; SYNCHRONIZED EPIDEMICS; SYPHILIS INFECTION;

DISEASES;

SYPHILIS;

ARTICLE; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; EPIDEMIC; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; GONORRHEA; IMMUNE RESPONSE; INCIDENCE; INFECTION SENSITIVITY; OSCILLATION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SECONDARY SYPHILIS; SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASE; SYPHILIS; UNITED STATES;

CITIES; GONORRHEA; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DENSITY; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; SYPHILIS; TIME FACTORS; UNITED STATES; URBAN HEALTH;

EID: 13444278646     PISSN: 00280836     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nature03072     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Bjornstad, O. N. & Grenfell, B. T. Noisy clockwork: Time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science 293, 638-643 (2001).
2. Pascual, M., Rodo, X., Ellner, S. P., Colwell, R. & Bouma, M. J. Cholera dynamics and el Nino-Southern Oscillation. Science 289, 1766-1769 (2000).
3. Nakashima, A. K., Rolfs, R. T., Flock, M. L., Kilmarx, P. & Greenspan, J. R. Epidemiology of syphilis in the United States, 1941-1993. Sex. Transm. Dis. 23, 16-23 (1996).
4. Morgan, C. A., Lukehart, S. A. & Van Voorhis, W. C. Protection against syphilis correlates with specificity of antibodies to the variable regions of Treponema pallidum repeat protein K. Infect. Immun. 71, 5605-5612 (2003).
5. Fox, K. K. et al. Longitudinal evaluation of serovar-specific immunity to Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Am. J. Epidemiol. 149, 353-358 (1999).
6. Schmidt, K. A. et al. Experimental gonococcal urethritis and reinfection with homologous gonococci in male volunteers. Sex. Transm. Dis. 28, 555-564 (2001).
7. Chatfield, C. The Analysis of Time Series: an Introduction 6th edn (Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, 2003).
8. Grenfell, B. T., Bjornstad, O. N. & Kappey, J. Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414, 716-723 (2001).
9. Hethcote, H. W. & Yorke, J. A. Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics and Control in Lecture Notes Biomath no. 56 (Springer, Berlin, 1984).
10. Garnett, G. P., Aral, S. O., Hoyle, D. V., Cates, W. & Anderson, R. M. The natural history of syphilis: Implications for the transmission dynamics and control of infection. Sex. Transm. Dis. 24, 185-200 (1997).
11. Garnett, G. P., Mertz, K. J., Finelli, L., Levine, W. C. & St Louis, M. E. The transmission dynamics of gonorrhoea: modelling the reported behaviour of infected patients from Newark, New Jersey. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 354, 787-797 (1999).
12. Hook, E. W. et al. Delayed presentation to clinics for sexually transmitted diseases by symptomatic patients - A potential contributor to continuing STD morbidity. Sex. Transm. Dis. 24, 443-448 (1997).
13. Greenberg, I. B. et al. Learning from clients: An opportunity for sexually transmitted disease programs. J. Public Health Manage Pract. 8, 59-68 (2002).
14. Wasserheit, J. N. & Aral, S. O. The dynamic topology of sexually transmitted disease epidemics: implications for prevention strategies. J. Infect. Dis. 174 (suppl. 2), S201-S213 (1996).
15. Hamers, F. F. et al. Syphilis and Gonorrhea in Miami-Similar clustering, different trends. Am. J. Public Health 85, 1104-1108 (1995).
16. Bailey, N. T. J. The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its Applications 2nd edn (Griffin, London, 1975).
17. Lloyd, A. L. & May, R. M. Spatial heterogeneity in epidemic models. J. Theor. Biol. 179, 1-11 (1996).
18. U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National Transportation Statistics 2003 (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 2003).
19. Cliff, A. D., Haggett, P. & Smallman-Raynor, M. in Deciphering Global Epidemics: Analytical Approaches to the Disease Records of World Cities, 1888-1912 (eds Baker, A. R. H., Dennis, R. St Holdsworth, D.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1998).
20. Wallace, R., Huang, Y. S., Gould, P. & Wallace, D. The hierarchical diffusion of AIDS and violent crime among US metropolitan regions: Inner-city decay, stochastic resonance and reversal of the mortality transition. Soc. Sci. Med. 44, 935-947 (1997).
21. Keeling, M. J. & Rohani, P. Estimating spatial coupling in epidemiological systems: a mechanistic approach. Ecol. Lett. 5, 20-29 (2002).
22. Lloyd, A. L. & Jansen, V. A. A. Spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics: synchrony in metapopulation models. Math. Biosci. 188, 1-16 (2004).
23. Aral, S. O. The social context of syphilis persistence in the southeastern United States. Sex. Transm. Dis. 23, 9-15 (1996).
24. Kuperman, M. & Abramson, G. Small world effect in an epidemiological model. Phys. Rev. Lett. 86, 2909-2912 (2001).
25. Chesson, H. W., Dee, T. S. & Aral, S. O. AIDS mortality may have contributed to the decline in syphilis rates in the United States in the 1990s. Sex. Transm. Dis. 30, 419-424 (2003).
26. Kahn, R. H., Heffelfinger, J. D. & Berman, S. M. Syphilis outbreaks among men who have sex with men - A public health trend of concern. Sex. Transm. Dis. 29, 285-287 (2002).
27. Wolitski, R. J., Valdiserri, R. O., Denning, P. H. & Levine, W. C. Are we headed for a resurgence of the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men? Am. J. Public Health 91, 883-888 (2001).
28. Bjørnstad, O. N., Ims, R. A. & Lambin, X. Spatial population dynamics: analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony. Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 427-432 (1999).
29. Nåsell, I. Stochastic models of some endemic infections. Math. Biosci. 179, 1-19 (2002).
30. Gibson, C. Population of the 100 Largest Cities and Other Urban Places in the United States: 1790-1990 (Working Paper No. 27, Population Division, US Census Bureau, Washington DC, 1998).