Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases

PLoS Medicine

Volumn 2, Issue 7, 2005, Pages 0621-0627

  Wearing, Helen J ^a   Rohani, Pejman ^a   Keeling, Matt J ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANALYTIC METHOD; ARTICLE; DISEASE DURATION; DISEASE PREDISPOSITION; EPIDEMIC; HEALTH CARE; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; INFECTION; INFECTION CONTROL; INFLUENZA; MODEL; PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; EPIDEMIOLOGY; PUBLIC HEALTH; THEORETICAL MODEL;

COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS; EPIDEMIOLOGY; HUMANS; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PUBLIC HEALTH;

EID: 33747589306     PISSN: 15491277     EISSN: 15491676     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020174     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Frankish H (2003) Death toll continues to climb in Congo Ebola outbreak. Lancet 361: 1020.
2. Daszak P, Cunningham AA, Hyatt AD (2000) Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife - Threats to biodiversity and human health. Science 287: 443-449.
3. Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Fraser C, et al. (2003) Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. Lancet 361: 1761-1766.
4. Gani R, Leach S (2001) Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations. Nature 414: 748-751.
5. Halloran ME, Longini I, Nizam A, Yang Y (2002) Containing bioterrorist smallpox. Science 298: 1428-1432.
6. Keeling MJ, Gilligan CA (2000) Bubonic plague: A metapopulation model of a zoonosis. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 267: 2219-2230.
7. Anderson RM, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Woolhouse MEJ, Watt CJ, et al. (1996) Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle. Nature 382: 779-788.
8. Woolhouse M, Chase-Topping M, Haydon D, Friar J, Matthews L, et al. (2001) Foot-and-mouth disease under control in the UK. Nature 411: 258-259.
9. Cyranoski D (2001) Outbreak of chicken flu rattles Hong Kong. Nature 412: 261.
10. Miller MW, Wild MA (2004) Epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in captive white-tailed and mule deer. J Wildl Dis 40: 320-327.
11. 0 and a recipe for its calculation. Acta Biotheor 50: 189-204.
12. Keeling MJ, Woolhouse MEJ, Shaw DJ, Matthews L, Chase-Topping M, et al. (2001) Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science 294: 813-817.
13. Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, Robins JM, Ma S, et al. (2003) Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science 300: 1966-1970.
14. Ferguson NM, Keeling MJ, Edmunds WJ, Gant R, Grenfell BT, et al. (2003) Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature 425: 681-685.
15. Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM (2004) Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101: 6146-6151.
16. Kermack WO, McKendrick AG (1927) A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proc R Soc Lond A 115: 700-721.
17. Anderson RM, May RM (1991) Infectious diseases of humans: Dynamics and control. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 757 p.
18. Sartwell PE (1950) The distribution of incubation periods of infectious disease. Am J Hyg 51: 310-318.
19. Simpson REH (1952) Infectiousness of communicable diseases in the household (measles, chickenpox, and mumps). Lancet 263: 549-554.
20. Bailey NTJ (1975) The mathematical theory of infectious diseases, 2nd ed. London: Charles Griffin and Company. 413 p.
21. Hethcote H, Tudor DW (1980) Integral equation models for endemic infectious diseases. J Math Biol 9: 37-47.
22. Grossman Z (1980) Oscillatory phenomena in a model of infectious diseases. Theor Popul Biol 18: 204-243.
23. Blythe SP, Nisbet RM, Gurney WSC (1984) The dynamics of population models with distributed maturation periods. Theor Popul Biol 25: 289-311.
24. Blythe SP, Anderson RM (1988) Distributed incubation and infectious periods in models of the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). IMA J Math Appl Med Biol 5: 1-19.
25. Keeling MJ, Grenfell BT (1997) Disease extinction and community size: Modeling the persistence of measles. Science 275: 65-67.
26. Lloyd AL (2001) Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic distributions of infectious periods. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 268: 985-993.
27. Wearing HJ, Rohani P, Cameron TC, Sait SM (2004) The dynamical consequences of developmental variability and demographic stochasticity for host-parasitoid interactions. Am Nat 164: 543-558.
28. London WP, Yorke JA (1973) Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps. I. Seasonal variations in contact rates. Am J Epidemiol 98: 453-468.
29. Schenzle D (1984) An age-structured model of pre- and post-vaccination measles transmission. IMA J Math Appl Med Biol 1: 169-191.
30. Lloyd AL (2001) Realistic distributions of infectious periods in epidemic models: Changing patterns of persistence and dynamics. Theor Popul Biol 60: 59-71.
31. Grossman Z, Feinberg M, Kuznetsov V, Dimitrov D, Paul W (1998) HIV infection: How effective is drug combination treatment? Immunol Today 19: 528-532.
32. Mittler JE, Sulzer B, Neumann AU, Perelson AS (1998) Influence of delayed viral production on viral dynamics in HIV-1 infected patients. Math Biosci 152: 143-163.
33. Lloyd AL (2001) The dependence of viral parameter estimates on the assumed viral life cycle: Limitations of studies of viral load data. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 268: 847-854.
34. Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Abu-Raddad LJ, et al. (2003) Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions. Science 300: 1961-1966.
35. Chowell G, Hengartner NW, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Hyman JM (2004) The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: The cases of Congo and Uganda. J Theor Biol 229: 119-126.
36. Anderson D, Watson R (1980) On the spread of a disease with gamma distributed latent and infectious periods. Biometrika 67: 191-198.
37. Anon (1978) Influenza in a boarding school. BMJ 1: 587.
38. Steinhoff MC (2001) Epidemiology and prevention of influenza. In: Nelson KE, Williams CM, Graham NMH, editors. Infectious disease epidemiology: Theory and practice. Gaithersburg (Maryland): Aspen Publishers. pp. 477-494.
39. Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM (2001) The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science 292: 1155-1160.
40. Kaplan EH, Craft DL, Wein LM (2002) Emergency response to a smallpox attack: The case for mass vaccination. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 99: 10935-10940.
41. Rohani P, Earn DJD, Grenfell BT (1999) Opposite patterns of synchrony in sympatric disease metapopulations. Science 286: 968-971.
42. Anderson RM, Medley GF, Blythe SP, Johnson AM (1987) Is it possible to predict the minimum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United Kingdom? Lancet 1: 1073-1075.
43. Lele S, Taper ML (2002) A composite likelihood approach to (co)variance components estimation. J Stat Plan Infer 103: 117-135.
44. Clark JS, Bjørnstad ON (2004) Population time series: Process variability, observation errors, missing values, lags, and hidden states. Ecology 85: 3140-3150.
45. Keeling MJ, Brooks SP, Gilligan CA (2004) Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a single snapshot. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101: 9155-9160.
46. Kendall BE, Ellner SP, McCauley E, Wood SN, Briggs CJ, et al. (2005) Population cycles in the pine looper moth: Dynamical tests of mechanistic hypotheses. Ecol Monogr. In press.
47. Lloyd-Smith JO, Galvani AP, Getz WM (2003) Curtailing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome within a community and its hospital. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 270: 1979-1989.
48. Koplan JP, Azizullah M, Foster SO (1978) Urban hospital and rural village smallpox in Bangladesh. Trop Geogr Med 30: 355-358.