Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 273, Issue 1600, 2006, Pages 2541-2550

  Grassly, Nicholas C ^a   Fraser, Christophe ^a  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Communicable diseases; Disease outbreaks; Epidemiology; Seasons; Vaccination

Indexed keywords

DISEASE SPREAD; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIOLOGY; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; PERSISTENCE; SEASONALITY; VACCINATION;

COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INFECTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; TEMPERATURE; TROPIC CLIMATE; VACCINATION;

EID: 33748982385     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3604     Document Type: Review

References (73)

1. Agur, Z., Cojocaru, L., Mazor, G., Anderson, R. M. & Danon, Y. L. 1993 Pulse mass measles vaccination across age cohorts. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 90, 11 698-11 702.
2. Allen, J. C., Schaffer, W. M. & Rosko, D. 1993 Chaos reduces species extinction by amplifying local population noise. Nature 364, 229-232. (doi:10.1038/364229a0)
3. Altizer, S., Dobson, A., Hosseini, P., Hudson, P., Pascual, M. & Rohani, P. 2006 Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases. J. Anim. Ecol. 9, 467-484.
4. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1991 Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
5. Aron, J. L. & Schwartz, I. B. 1984 Seasonality and period doubling bifurcations in an epidemic model. J. Theor. Biol. 110, 665-679.
6. Bailey, N. T. J. 1975 The mathematical theory of infectious diseases and its applications, pp. 105-107, 2nd edn. London, UK: Griffin.
7. Bartlett, M. S. 1957 Measles periodicity and community size. J. R. Stat. Soc. A 120, 48-70.
8. Bauch, C. T. & Earn, D. J. D. 2003 Transients and attractors in epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. B 270, 1573-1578. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2003.2410)
9. Birmingham, M. E., Aylward, R. B., Cochi, S. L. & Hull, H. F. 1997 National immunization days: state of the art. J. Infect. Dis. 175(Suppl. 1), S183-S188.
10. Blakebrough, I. S. 1979 Epidemiological and laboratory studies of meningococcal infections in Nigeria. Ph.D. thesis, University of Liverpool, UK.
11. Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. 1996 Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 93, 12 648-12 653. (doi:10.1073/pnas.93.22.12648)
12. Chavasse, D. C., Shler, R. P., Murphy, O. A., Huttly, S. R. A., Cousens, S. N. & Akhtar, T. 1999 Impact of fly control on childhood diarrhoea in Pakistan: community-randomised trial. Lancet 353, 22-25. (doi:10.1016/S0140- 6736(98)03366-2)
13. Chew, F. T., Doraisingham, S., Ling, A. E., Kumarasinghe, G. & Lee, B. W. 1998 Seasonal trends of viral respiratory tract infections in the tropics. Epidemiol. Infect. 121, 121-128. (doi:10.1017/S0950268898008905)
14. Cook, S. M., Glass, R. I., Lebaron, C. W. & Ho, M. S. 1990 Global seasonality of rotavirus infections. Bull. World Health Organ. 68, 171-177.
15. Davis, S., Begon, M., De Bruyn, L., Ageyev, V. S., Klassovskiy, N. L., Pole, S. B., Viljugrein, H., Stenseth, N. C. & Leirs, H. 2004 Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan. Science 304, 736-738. (doi:10.1126/science. 1095854)
16. Deguen, S., Thomas, G. & Chau, N. P. 2000 Estimation of the contact rate in a seasonal SEIR model: application to chickenpox incidence in France. Stat. Med. 19, 1207-1216. (doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(20000515)19:9〈1207:: AID-SIM423〉3.0.CO;2-L)
17. de Jong, J. G. & Winkler, K. C. 1964 Survival of measles virus in air. Nature 201, 1054-1055.
18. 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. J. Math. Biol. 28, 365-382. (doi:10.1007/BF00178324)
19. Dietz, K. 1976 The incidence of infectious diseases under the influence of seasonal fluctuations. In Lecture notes in biomathematics, vol. 11 (ed. J. Berger et al.), pp. 1-15. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
20. Dowell, S. F. 2001 Seasonal variation in host susceptibility and cycles of certain infectious diseases. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 7, 369-374.
21. Dushoff, J., Plotkin, J. B., Levin, S. A. & Earn, D. J. D. 2004 Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 16 915-16 916. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0407293101)
22. Earn, D. J. D., Rohani, P. & Grenfell, B. T. 1998 Persistence, chaos and synchrony in ecology and epidemiology. Proc. R. Soc. B 265, 7-10. (doi:10.1098/rspb.1998.0256)
23. Earn, D. J. D., Rohani, P., Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. 2000 A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics. Science 287, 667-670. (doi:10.1126/science.287.5453.667)
24. Emerson, P. M., Bailey, R. L., Mahdi, O. S., Walraven, G. E. L. & Lindsay, S. W. 2000 Transmission ecology of the fly Musca sorbens, a putative vector of trachoma. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 94, 28-32. (doi:10.1016/S0035-9203(00)90427-9)
25. Farrington, C. P., Kanaan, M. N. & Gay, N. J. 2003 Branching process models for surveillance of infectious diseases controlled by mass vaccination. Biostatistics 4, 279-295. (doi:10.1093/biostatistics/4.2.279)
26. Ferguson, N., Anderson, R. & Gupta, S. 1999 The effect of antibody-dependent enhancement on the transmission dynamics and persistence of multiple-strain pathogens. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 96, 790-794. (doi:10.1073/pnas.96.2.790)
27. Ferguson, N. M., Fraser, C., Donnelly, C. A., Ghani, A. C. & Anderson, R. M. 2004 Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemic. Science 304, 968-969. (doi:10.1126/science.1096898)
28. Fine, P. & Clarkson, J. 1982 Measles in England and Wales - I: an analysis of factors underlying seasonal patterns. Int. J. Epidemiol. 11, 5-14.
29. Finkenstadt, B. F. & Grenfell, B. T. 2000 Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach. Appl. Stat. 49, 182-205.
30. Gay, N. J., De Serres, G., Farrington, C. P., Redd, S. B. & Papania, M. J. 2004 Assessment of the status of measles elimination from reported outbreaks: United States, 1997-1999. J. Infect. Dis. 189(Suppl. 1), S36-S42. (doi:10.1086/377695)
31. Gomes, M. C., Gomes, J. J. & Paulo, A. C. 1999 Diphtheria, pertussis, and measles in Portugal before and after mass vaccination: a time series analysis. Eur. J. Epidemiol. 15, 791-798. (doi:10.1023/A:1007615513441)
32. Grassly, N. C., Fraser, C. & Garnett, G. P. 2005 Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States. Nature 433, 417-421. (doi:10.1038/nature03072)
33. Greenwood, B. 1999 Meningococcal meningitis in Africa. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 93, 341-353. (doi:10.1016/S0035-9203(99)90106-2)
34. Grenfell, B. T., Bolker, B. M. & Kleczkowski, A. 1995 Seasonally and extinction in chaotic metapopulations. Proc. R. Soc. B 259, 97-103.
35. Grenfell, B. T., Bjornstad, O. N. & Kappey, J. 2001 Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414, 716-723. (doi:10.1038/414716a)
36. Hamer, W. H. 1906 Epidemic disease in England: the evidence of variability and the persistence of type. Lancet 167, 733-739. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(01)80340-8)
37. Hay, S. I., Were, E. C., Renshaw, M., Noor, A. M., Ochola, S. A., Olusanmi, I., Alipui, N. & Snow, R. W. 2003 Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study. Lancet 361, 1705-1706. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13366-1)
38. Heesterbeek, H. 2005 The law of mass-action in epidemiology: a historical perspective. In Ecological paradigms lost: routes of theory change (ed. K. Cuddington & B. Beisner), pp. 81-105. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier.
39. Heesterbeek, J. A. P. & Roberts, M. G. 1995 Threshold quantities for helminth infections. J. Math. Biol. 33, 415-434. (doi:10.1007/BF00176380)
40. Hemmes, J. H., Winkler, K. C. & Kool, S. M. 1960 Virus survival as a seasonal factor in influenza and poliomyelitis. Nature 188, 430-431.
41. Hethcote, H. W. & Yorke, J. A. 1984 Gonorrhea transmission dynamics and control. Lecture notes in biomathematics, vol. 56, p. 105. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
42. Heymann, D. L. & Aylward, R. B. 2004 Eradicating polio. N. Engl. J. Med. 351, 1275-1277. (doi:10.1056/NEJMp048204)
43. Jagers, P. & Nerman, O. 1985 Branching processes in periodically varying environments. Ann. Prob. 13, 254-268.
44. Jansen, V. A. A., Stollenwerk, N., Jensen, H. J., Ramsay, M. E., Edmunds, W. J. & Rhodes, C. J. 2003 Measles outbreaks in a population with declining vaccine uptake. Science 301, 804. (doi:10.1126/science.1086726)
45. John, T. J., Pandian, R., Gadomski, A., Steinhoff, M., John, M. & Ray, M. 1983 Control of poliomyelitis by pulse immunisation in Vellore, India. Br. Med. J. (Clin. Res. Ed.) 286, 31-32.
46. Keeling, M. J., Rohani, P. & Grenfell, B. T. 2001 Seasonally forced disease dynamics explored as switching between attractors. Physica D 148, 317-335.
47. Lee, D. C., Chidambaram, J. D., Porco, T. C. & Lietman, T. M. 2005 Seasonal effects in the elimination of trachoma. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 72, 468-470.
48. Lello, J., Boag, B., Fenton, A., Stevenson, I. R. & Hudson, P. J. 2004 Competition and mutualism among the gut helminths of a mammalian host. Nature 428, 840-844. (doi:10.1038/nature02490)
49. London, W. P. & Yorke, J. A. 1973 Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps. I. Seasonal variation in contact rates. Am. J. Epidemiol. 98, 453-468.
50. Loosli, C. G., Lemon, H. M., Robertson, O. H. & Appel, E. 1943 Experimental airborne influenza infection. I. Influence of humidity on survival of virus in air. Proc. Soc. Exp. Biol. Med. 53, 205-206.
51. Lord, C. C., Woolhouse, M. E. J., Heesterbeek, J. A. P. & Mellor, P. S. 1996 Vector-borne diseases and the basic reproduction number: a case study of African horse sickness. Med. Vet. Entomol. 10, 19-28.
52. Ma, J. L. & Ma, Z. 2006 Epidemic threshold conditions for seasonally forced SEIR models. Math. Biosci. Eng. 3, 161-172.
53. Mabaso, M. L. H., Craig, M., Vounatsou, P. & Smith, T. 2005 Towards empirical description of malaria seasonality in southern Africa: the example of Zimbabwe. Trop. Med. Int. Health 10, 909-918. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2005. 01462.x)
54. Mounts, A. W., Ando, T., Koopmans, M., Bresee, J. S., Noel, J. & Glass, R. I. 2000 Cold weather seasonality of gastroenteritis associated with Norwalk-like viruses. J. Infect. Dis. 181(Suppl. 2), S284-S287. (doi:10.1086/315586)
55. Nåsell, I. 2002 Stochastic models of some endemic infections. Math. Biosci. 179, 1-19. (doi:10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00098-6)
56. Nelson, R. J. & Demas, G. E. 1996 Seasonal changes in immune function. Q. Rev. Biol. 71, 511-548. (doi:10.1086/419555)
57. Nokes, D. J. & Swinton, J. 1995 The control of childhood viral infections by pulse vaccination. IMA J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 12, 29-53.
58. Nokes, D. J. & Swinton, J. 1997 Vaccination in pulses: a strategy for global eradication of measles and polio? Trends Microbiol. 5, 14-19. (doi:10.1016/S0966-842X(97)81769-6)
59. Pascual, M., Rodo, X., Ellner, S. P., Colwell, R. & Bouma, M. J. 2000 Cholera dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Science 289, 1766-1769.
60. Pascual, M., Bouma, M. J. & Dobson, A. P. 2002 Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence. Microbes Infect. 4, 237-245. (doi:10.1016/S1286-4579(01)01533-7)
61. Ramsay, M. E., Jin, L., White, J., Litton, P., Cohen, B. & Brown, D. 2003 The elimination of indigenous measles transmission in England and Wales. J. Infect. Dis. 187(Suppl. 1), S198-S207. (doi:10.1086/368024)
62. Randolph, S. E. 2004 Tick ecology: processes and patterns behind the epidemiological risk posed by ixodid ticks as vectors. Parasitology 129, S37-S65. (doi:10.1017/S0031182004004925)
63. Ransome, A. 1880 On epidemic cycles. Proc. Manchester Lit. Phil. Soc. 19, 75-96.
64. Rohani, P., Keeling, M. J. & Grenfell, B. T. 2002 The interplay between determinism and stochasticity in childhood diseases. Am. Nat. 159, 469-481. (doi:10.1086/339467)
65. Rohani, P., Green, C. J., Mantilla-Beniers, N. B. & Grenfell, B. T. 2003 Ecological interference between fatal diseases. Nature 422, 885-888. (doi:10.1038/nature01542)
66. Schwartz, I. B. 1985 Multiple stable recurrent outbreaks and predictability in seasonally forced nonlinear epidemic models. J. Math. Biol. 21, 347-361. (doi:10.1007/BF00276232)
67. Schwartz, I. B. 1992 Small amplitude, long period outbreaks in seasonally driven epidemics. J. Math. Biol. 30, 473-491. (doi:10.1007/BF00160532)
68. Soper, H. E. 1929 The interpretation of periodicity in disease prevalence. J. R. Stat. Soc. 92, 34-73.
69. Sturrock, R. F., Diaw, O. T., Talla, I., Niang, M., Piau, J. P. & Capron, A. 2001 Seasonality in the transmission of schistosomiasis and in populations of its snail intermediate hosts in and around a sugar irrigation scheme at Richard Toll, Senegal. Parasitology 123, S77-S89. (doi:10.1017/ S0031182001008125)
70. Sultan, B., Labadi, K., Guégan, J.-F. & Janicot, S. 2005 Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in West Africa. PLoS Med. 2, e6. (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020006)
71. Trapman, P., Meester, R. & Heesterbeek, H. 2004 A branching model for the spread of infectious animal diseases in varying environments. J. Math. Biol. 49, 553-576. (doi:10.1007/s00285-004-0267-5)
72. Williams, B. G. & Dye, C. 1997 Infectious disease persistence when transmission varies seasonally. Math. Biosci. 145, 77-88. (doi:10.1016/S0025- 5564(97)00039-4)
73. Yorke, J. A., Nathanson, N., Pianigiani, G. & Martin, J. 1979 Seasonality and the requirements for perpetuation and eradication of viruses in populations. Am. J. Epidemiol. 109, 103-123.