North Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability - Mechanisms and Predictability

World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate

Volumn 6, Issue , 2016, Pages 141-157

  Keenlyside, Noel S ^a   Ba, Jin ^b   Mecking, Jennifer ^b   Omrani, Nour Eddine ^b   Latif, Mojib ^b   Zhang, Rong ^c   Msadek, Rym ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BERGEN   (Norway)

^b GEOMAR HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH KIEL   (Germany)

^c NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85035141316     PISSN: 20102763     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: None     Document Type: Chapter

References (98)

1. Ba, J., 2013: North Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability Simulated in Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel, Germany, 81 pp.
2. N. S. Keenlyside, W. Park, M. Latif, E. Hawkins, and H. Ding, 2013a: A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Clim. Dyn., 41, 2133-2144.
3. et al., 2014: A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability. Clim. Dyn., 43, 2333-2348.
4. Bjerknes, J., 1964: Atlantic air-sea interaction. Adv. Geophys., 10, 1-82.
5. Boer, G. J., and S. J. Lambert, 2008: Multimodel decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L05706.
6. Böning, C. W., M. Scheinert, J. Dengg, A. Biastoch, and A. Funk, 2006: Decadal variability of subpolar gyre transport and its reverberation in the North Atlantic overturning. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21S01.
7. Booth, B. B. B., N. J. Dunstone, P. R. Halloran, T. Andrews, and N. Bellouin, 2012: Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature, 484, 228-232.
8. Branstator, G., and H. Y. Teng, 2010: Two limits of initial-value decadal predictability in a CGCM. J. Climate, 23, 6292-6311.
9. Cayan, D. R., 1992: Latent and sensible heat flux anomalies over the Northern Oceans: Driving the sea surface temperature. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 22, 859-881.
10. Charlton-Perez, A. J., et al., 2013: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2494-2505.
11. Cheng, W., J. C. H. Chiang, and D. Zhang, 2013: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and historical simulations. J. Climate, 26, 7187-7197.
12. Cunningham, S. A., et al., 2007: Temporal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26. 5 N. Science, 317, 935-938.
13. Curry, R. G., M. S. McCartney, and T. M. Joyce, 1998: Oceanic transport of subpolar climate signals to mid-depth subtropical waters. Nature, 391, 575-577.
14. Delworth, T., S. Manabe, and R. J. Stouffer, 1993: Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 1993-2011.
15. Delworth, T. L., and R. J. Greatbatch, 2000: Multidecadal thermohaline circulation variability driven by atmospheric surface flux forcing. J. Climate, 13, 1481-1495.
16. Deser, C., and M. L. Blackmon, 1993: Surface Climate Variations over the North-Atlantic Ocean duringWinter-1900-1989. J. Climate, 6, 1743-1753.
17. Deshayes, J., R. Curry, and R. Msadek, 2014: CMIP5 model inter-comparison of freshwater budget and circulation in the North Atlantic. J. Clim., 27, 3298-3317. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI-D-12-00700. 1.
18. Dickson, R., J. Lazier, J. Meincke, P. Rhines, and J. Swift, 1996: Long-term coordinated changes in the convective activity of the North Atlantic. Prog. Oceanogr., 38, 241-295.
19. Dijkstra, H., L. Raa, M. Schmeits, and J. Gerrits, 2006: On the physics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Ocean Dyn., 56, 36-50.
20. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., and Coauthors, 2013: Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction. Nat. Commun., 4, 1715.
21. Eden, C., and T. Jung, 2001: North Atlantic interdecadal variability: Oceanic response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (1865-1997). J. Climate, 14, 676-691.
22. and J. Willebrand, 2001: Mechanism of interannual to decadal variability of the North Atlantic circulation. J. Climate, 14, 2266-2280.
23. Edwards, M., G. Beaugrand, P. Helaoüet, J. Alheit, and S. Coombs, 2013: Marine Ecosystem Response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. PLOS ONE, 8, e57212.
24. Frankcombe, L. M., H. A. Dijkstra, and A. von der Heydt, 2009: Noise-induced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: excitation of Normal Modes. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 39, 220-233.
25. A. von der Heydt, and H. A. Dijkstra, 2010: North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability: An Investigation of Dominant Time Scales and Processes. J. Climate, 23, 3626-3638.
26. Frankignoul, C., and K. Hasselmann, 1977: Stochastic climate models, Part II. Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability. Tellus, 29, 289-305.
27. Gastineau, G., and C. Frankignoul, 2012: Coldseason atmospheric response to the natural variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Clim. Dyn., 39, 37-57.
28. Ghil, M., et al., 2002: Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev. Geophys., 40, 3-1-3-41.
29. Gray, S. T., L. J. Graumlich, J. L. Betancourt, and G. T. Pederson, 2004: A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 AD. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L12205.
30. Guemas, V., S. Corti, J. García-Serrano, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda, and L. Magnusson, 2012: The Indian Ocean: The region of highest skill worldwide in decadal climate prediction. J. Climate, 26, 726-739.
31. Gulev, S. K., M. Latif, N. Keenlyside, W. Park, and K. P. Koltermann, 2013: North Atlantic Ocean control on surface heat flux on multidecadal timescales. Nature, 499, 464-467.
32. Häkkinen, S., and P. B. Rhines, 2004: Decline of subpolar North Atlantic circulation during the 1990s. Science, 304, 555-559.
33. Hand, R., N. Keenlyside, N.-E. Omrani, and M. Latif, 2014: Simulated response to interannual SST variations in the Gulf Stream region. Clim. Dyn., 42, 715-731.
34. Hasselmann, K., 1976: Stochastic climate models Part 1. Theory. Tellus, 28, 473-485.
35. Hatun, H., A. B. Sando, H. Drange, B. Hansen, and H. Valdimarsson, 2005: Influence of the Atlantic subpolar gyre on the thermohaline circulation. Science, 309, 1841-1844.
36. Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2009: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1095-1107.
37. Hodson, D. L. R., R. T. Sutton, C. Cassou, N. Keenlyside, Y. Okumura, and T. J. Zhou, 2010: Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A multimodel comparison. Clim. Dyn., 34, 1041-1058.
38. Hurrell, J. W., Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck, 2003: An Overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate Significance and Environmental Impact, J. W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck, Eds., American Geophysical Union, 1-35.
39. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.
40. Jungclaus, J. H., H. Haak, M. Latif, and U. Mikolajewicz, 2005: Arctic North Atlantic Interactions and Multidecadal Variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation. J. Climate, 18, 4013-4031.
41. Kalnay, E., et al., 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
42. Kavvada, A., A. Ruiz-Barradas, and S. Nigam, 2013: AMO's structure and climate footprint in observations and IPCC AR5 climate simulations. Clim. Dyn., 41, 1345-1364.
43. Keenlyside, N. S., and J. Ba, 2010: Prospects for decadal climate prediction. WIREs: Climate Change, 1, 627-635.
44. M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature, 453, 84-88.
45. Kim, H. M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2012: Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10701.
46. Klöwer, M., M. Latif, H. Ding, R. J. Greatbatch, and W. Park, 2014: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and prediction of North Atlantic sea surface temperature. doi: 10. 1016/j. lpsl. 2014. 09. 001.
47. Knight, J. R., R. J. Allan, C. K. Folland, M. Vellinga, and M. E. Mann, 2005: A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20708.
48. Kuhlbrodt, T., A. Griesel, M. Montoya, A. Levermann, M. Hofmann, and S. Rahmstorf, 2007: On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2001.
49. Kushnir, Y., 1994: Interdecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions. J. Climate, 7, 141-157.
50. W. A. Robinson, I. Blade, N. M. J. Hall, S. Peng, and R. Sutton, 2002: Atmospheric GCM response to extratropical SST anomalies: Synthesis and evaluation. J. Climate, 15, 2233-2256.
51. Langehaug, H. R., I. Medhaug, T. Eldevik, and O. H. Ottera, 2012: Arctic/Atlantic Exchanges via the Subpolar Gyre. J. Climate, 25, 2421-2439.
52. Latif, M., and N. S. Keenlyside, 2011: A perspective on decadal climate variability and predictability. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 58, 1880-1894.
53. et al., 2004: Reconstructing, monitoring, and predicting multidecadal-scale changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation with sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 17, 1605-1614.
54. Lohmann, K., H. Drange, and M. Bentsen, 2009: A possible mechanism for the strong weakening of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the mid-1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15602.
55. Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006: Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. Eos Trans. AGU, 87, 233-241.
56. Manzini, E., C. Cagnazzo, P. G. Fogli, A. Bellucci, and W. A. Müller, 2012: Stratospheretroposphere coupling at inter-decadal time scales: Implications for the North Atlantic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L05801.
57. Marini, C., and C. Frankignoul, 2013: An attempt to deconstruct the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Clim. Dyn.
58. Marshall, J., and F. Schott, 1999: Open-ocean convection: Observations, theory, and models. Rev. Geophys., 37, 98RG0273.
59. Matei, D., H. Pohlmann, J. Jungclaus, W. Müller, H. Haak, and J. Marotzke, 2012: Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. J. Climate, 25, 8502-8523.
60. Mecking, J. V., N. S. Keenlyside, and R. J. Greatbatch, 2014: Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: A model study. Clim. Dyn., 43, 271-288.
61. Medhaug, I., H. R. Langehaug, T. Eldevik, T. Furevik, and M. Bentsen, 2012: Mechanisms for decadal scale variability in a simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Clim. Dyn., 39, 77-93.
62. Meehl, G. A., et al., 2013: Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.
63. Mikolajewicz U., Maier-Reimer E. 1990: Internal secular variability in an ocean general circulation model, Clim. Dyn. 4 145-156
64. Minobe, S., A. Kuwano-Yoshida, N. Komori, S.-P. Xie, and R. J. Small, 2008: Influence of the Gulf Stream on the troposphere. Nature, 452, 206-209.
65. Msadek, R., and C. Frankignoul, 2009: Atlantic multidecadal oceanic variability and its influence on the atmosphere in a climate model. Clim. Dyn., 33, 45-62.
66. et al., 2014: Predicting a decadal shift in North Atlantic climate variability using the GFDL forecast system. J. Climate, 27, 6472-6496.
67. Omrani, N. E., N. S. Keenlyside, J. Bader, and E. Manzini, 2014: Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions. Clim. Dyn., 42, 649-663.
68. Ottera, O. H., M. Bentsen, H. Drange, and L. L. Suo, 2010: External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability. Nat. Geosci., 3, 688-694.
69. Polyakov, I., U. Bhatt, H. Simmons, D. Walsh, J. Walsh, and X. Zhang, 2005: Multidecadal variability of North Atlantic temperature and salinity during the twentieth century. J. Climate, 18, 4562-4581.
70. Rayner, N. A., et al., 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407.
71. Reverdin, G., 2010: North Atlantic subpolar gyre surface variability (1895-2009). J. Climate, 23, 4571-4584.
72. Robson, J., R. Sutton, K. Lohmann, D. Smith, and M. D. Palmer, 2012: Causes of the Rapid Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in theMid-1990s. J. Climate, 25, 4116-4134.
73. Ruiz-Barradas, A., S. Nigam, and A. Kavvada, 2013: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in twentieth century climate simulations: Uneven progress from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim. Dyn., 41, 3301-3315.
74. Saravanan, R., and J. C. McWilliams, 1997: Stochasticity and spatial resonance in interdecadal climate fluctuations. J. Climate, 10, 2299-2320.
75. Scaife, A. A., J. R. Knight, G. K. Vallis, and C. K. Folland, 2005: A stratospheric influence on the winter NAO and North Atlantic surface climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18715.
76. et al., 2011: Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23703.
77. Schimanke, S., J. Korper, T. Spangehl, and U. Cubasch, 2011: Multi-decadal variability of sudden stratospheric warmings in an AOGCM. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L01801.
78. Schlesinger, M. E., and N. Ramankutty, 1994: An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years. Nature, 367, 723-726.
79. Schneider, N., A. J. Miller, and D. W. Pierce, 2002: Anatomy of North Pacific decadal variability. J. Climate, 15, 586-605.
80. Smith, D. M., S. Cusack, A. W. Colman, C. K. Folland, G. R. Harris, and J. M. Murphy, 2007: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796-799.
81. et al., 2013: Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Clim. Dyn., 41, 2875-2888.
82. Sutton, R. T., and D. L. R. Hodson, 2005: Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309, 115-118.
83. Svendsen, L., S. Hetzinger, N. S. Keenlyside, and Y. Gao, 2014: Marine-based multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic multi-decadal variability Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1295-1300, 2013GL059076.
84. Timmermann, A., M. Latif, R. Voss, and A. Grotzner, 1998: Northern Hemispheric interdecadal variability: A coupled air-sea mode. J. Climate, 11, 1906-1931.
85. Ting, M. F., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and C. H. Li, 2009: Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 1469-1481.
86. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/ GRID-Arendal, 2002: Africa Environment Outlook - Past, Present and Future Perspectives. United Nations Publications, 448 pp.
87. Vellinga, M., and P. Wu, 2004: Low-latitude freshwater influence on centennial variability of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. J. Climate, 17, 4498-4511.
88. Visbeck, M., E. Chassignet, R. Curry, T. Delworth, B. Dickson, and G. Krahmann, 2003: The Ocean's Response to North Atlantic Oscillation Variability, in "The North Atlantic Oscillation". The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate Significance and Environmental Impact, J. W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck, Eds., American Geophysical Union, 113-146.
89. H. Cullen, G. Krahmann, and N. Naik, 1998: An ocean model's response to North Atlantic Oscillation-like wind forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 4521-4524.
90. Wang, C., and L. Zhang, 2013: Multidecadal ocean temperature and salinity variability in the tropical North Atlantic: Linking with the AMO, AMOC, and subtropical cell. J. Climate, 26, 6137-6162.
91. Weisse, R., U. Mikolajewicz, and E. Maier-Reimer, 1994: Decadal variability of the North Atlantic in an ocean general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 99, 12411-12421.
92. Wunsch, C., 1999: The interpretation of short climate records, with comments on the North Atlantic and Southern Oscillations. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 245-255.
93. Yeager, S., A. Karspeck, G. Danabasoglu, J. Tribbia, and H. Y. Teng, 2012: A decadal prediction case study: Late twentieth-century North Atlantic Ocean heat content. J. Climate, 25, 5173-5189.
94. Zhang, L., and C. Wang, 2013: Multidecadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability in CMIP5 historical simulations. J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 5772-5791.
95. Zhang, R., 2010: Latitudinal dependence of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16703.
96. T. L. Delworth, and I. M. Held, 2007: Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02709.
97. and G. K. Vallis, 2006: Impact of great salinity anomalies on the low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic climate. J. Climate, 19, 470-482.
98. et al., 2013: Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1135-1144.