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Volumn 317, Issue 5839, 2007, Pages 796-799

Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; GLOBAL CLIMATE; GLOBAL WARMING; HUMAN ACTIVITY; SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

EID: 34547903564     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: 10959203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1139540     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (617)

References (40)
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    • Materials and methods are available as supporting material on Science Online.
    • Materials and methods are available as supporting material on Science Online.
  • 19
  • 20
    • 34547925782 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Solar irradiance is projected by repeating the previous 11-year solar cycle. Volcanic aerosol is projected as an exponential decay with an e-folding time scale of 1 year. Our hindcasts therefore do not use solar or volcanic information that would not have been available at the time.
    • Solar irradiance is projected by repeating the previous 11-year solar cycle. Volcanic aerosol is projected as an exponential decay with an e-folding time scale of 1 year. Our hindcasts therefore do not use solar or volcanic information that would not have been available at the time.
  • 21
    • 34547902645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • We use the term hindcast to refer to a forecast made retrospectively using only data that would have been available at the time
    • We use the term "hindcast" to refer to a forecast made retrospectively using only data that would have been available at the time.
  • 22
    • 34547913586 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Our hindcast period ends in 2001 because our hindcasts are initialized using the 40-year ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmosphere reanalysis 18, the last complete year of which is 2001
    • Our hindcast period ends in 2001 because our hindcasts are initialized using the 40-year ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmosphere reanalysis (18), the last complete year of which is 2001.
  • 23
    • 34547920115 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ensemble size for both DePreSys and NoAssim was further increased by combining with hindcasts from previous seasons. For hindcasts of the coming year, we combine two seasons, giving eight ensemble members. For longer lead times, we combine four seasons, giving 16 ensemble members
    • The ensemble size for both DePreSys and NoAssim was further increased by combining with hindcasts from previous seasons. For hindcasts of the coming year, we combine two seasons, giving eight ensemble members. For longer lead times, we combine four seasons, giving 16 ensemble members.
  • 24
    • 34547923869 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • i is the error of the ensemble mean for each hindcast i averaged over the required spatial region.
    • i is the error of the ensemble mean for each hindcast i averaged over the required spatial region.
  • 25
    • 34547899705 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • DePreSys is designed to avoid trends during forecasts caused by systematic model errors. This is achieved by assimilating observed anomalies added to the model climatology and removing the model climatology to produce forecast anomalies. The climatological period is 1979-2001 for the atmosphere and 1941-1996 for the ocean. Further details are given in (18).
    • DePreSys is designed to avoid trends during forecasts caused by systematic model errors. This is achieved by assimilating observed anomalies added to the model climatology and removing the model climatology to produce forecast anomalies. The climatological period is 1979-2001 for the atmosphere and 1941-1996 for the ocean. Further details are given in (18).
  • 27
    • 34547915382 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The confidence interval shown by the red shading in Figs. 2 and 4 should not be confused with the significance limits shown by the blue shading in Fig. 1. The confidence interval is a measure of the uncertainty in a forecast at a single time. The significance limits measure the uncertainty in differences between the skill of NoAssim and DePreSys averaged over all hindcasts.
    • The confidence interval shown by the red shading in Figs. 2 and 4 should not be confused with the significance limits shown by the blue shading in Fig. 1. The confidence interval is a measure of the uncertainty in a forecast at a single time. The significance limits measure the uncertainty in differences between the skill of NoAssim and DePreSys averaged over all hindcasts.
  • 29
  • 30
    • 34547911566 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • s during the first 5 years of each hindcast. The RMSE values are 0.030 and 0.038°C per year for DePreSys and NoAssim respectively, with the difference being significant at the 5% level.
    • s during the first 5 years of each hindcast. The RMSE values are 0.030 and 0.038°C per year for DePreSys and NoAssim respectively, with the difference being significant at the 5% level.
  • 32
  • 33
    • 34547895638 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model errors, such as those arising from uncertainties in climate change feedbacks (35), are liable to cause biases in predicted changes. We found a modest time-dependent bias in DePreSys hindcasts, unaffected by major volcanic eruptions, rising to 0.07° ± 0.02°C for year 9 (fig. S6) and removed this from both DePreSys and NoAssim forecasts (Fig. 4).
    • Model errors, such as those arising from uncertainties in climate change feedbacks (35), are liable to cause biases in predicted changes. We found a modest time-dependent bias in DePreSys hindcasts, unaffected by major volcanic eruptions, rising to 0.07° ± 0.02°C for year 9 (fig. S6) and removed this from both DePreSys and NoAssim forecasts (Fig. 4).
  • 34
    • 34547901194 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • We issue the caveat that any major volcanic eruptions occurring during the forecast period would cool global Ts as compared to our forecast
    • s as compared to our forecast.
  • 40
    • 34547874056 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • We thank many colleagues in the Met Office for developing the climate models and for help and advice during the course of this work. This work was supported by the UK Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, and by the UK Government Meteorological Research Programme
    • We thank many colleagues in the Met Office for developing the climate models and for help and advice during the course of this work. This work was supported by the UK Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, and by the UK Government Meteorological Research Programme.


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