Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 39, Issue 10, 2012, Pages

  Kim, Hye Mi ^a   Webster, Peter J ^a   Curry, Judith A ^a  

^a GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATOLOGY; FORECASTING; OCEANOGRAPHY; SURFACE PROPERTIES;

ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATIONS; CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; FORCED COMPONENT; GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE; HINDCASTS; LOW FREQUENCY; MULTI-MODEL; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; NORTH ATLANTIC; NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN; OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; SINGLE-MODEL SYSTEMS; SURFACE TEMPERATURES; WESTERN PACIFIC; SHORT-TERM CLIMATE CHANGES;

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; CLIMATE MODELING; DECADAL VARIATION; FORECASTING METHOD; GLOBAL WARMING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PREDICTION; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE PREDICTION; HINDCASTING; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; SIMULATION;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH); INDIAN OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (WEST);

EID: 84861372930     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL051644     Document Type: Article

References (18)

1. Berrisford, P., D. Dee, K. Fielding, M. Fuentes, P. Kallberg, S. Kobayashi, and S. Uppala (2009), The ERA-Interim archive, ERA Rep. Ser. 1, Eur. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
2. Chikamoto, T., et al. (2012), Predictability of a stepwise event of Pacific climate change during the late 1990s in hindcast experiments by MIROC, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 90A, 1-21.
3. Collins, M., and M. R. Allen (2002), Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability, J. Clim., 15, 3104-3109, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002) 0152.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 35474250)
4. Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas Nunez, and P. J. Trimble (2001), The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077-2080, doi:10.1029/ 2000GL012745. (Pubitemid 34039420)
5. Fyfe, J. C., W. J. Merryfield, V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W.-S. Lee, and K. von Salzen (2011), Skillful predictions of decadal trends in global mean surface temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L22801, doi:10.1029/2011GL049508.
6. Keenlyside, N. S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner (2008), Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector, Nature, 453, 84-88, doi:10.1038/nature06921. (Pubitemid 351630335)
7. Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis (1997), A Pacific decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 1069-1079, doi:10.1175/1520-0477 (1997)0782.0.CO;2.
8. Meehl, G. A., et al. (2009), Decadal prediction, can it be skillful?, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1467-1485, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1.
9. Meehl, G. A., A. Hu, and C. Tebaldi (2010), Decadal prediction in the Pacific region, J. Clim., 23, 2959-2973, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3296.1.
10. Mochizuki, T., et al. (2010), Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 107, 1833-1837, doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107.
11. Mochizuki, T., T. Chikamoto, M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, H. Tatebe, Y. Komuro, T. Sakamoto, M. Watanabe, and M. Mori (2012), Decadal prediction using a recent series of MIROC global climate models, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 90A, 373-383.
12. Pohlmann, H., J. H. Jungclaus, A. Köhl, D. Stammer, and J. Marotzke (2009), Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effect on the North Atlantic, J. Clim., 22, 3926-3938, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2535.1.
13. Schlesinger, M. E., and N. Ramankutty (1994), An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years, Nature, 367, 723-726, doi:10.1038/367723a0.
14. Smith, D. M., S. Cusack, A. W. Colman, C. K. Folland, G. R. Harris, and J. M. Murphy (2007), Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model, Science, 317, 796-799, doi:10.1126/science. 1139540. (Pubitemid 47257915)
15. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore (2008), Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006), J. Clim., 21, 2283-2296, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1. (Pubitemid 351844078)
16. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl (2012), An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
17. Uppala, S. M., et al. (2005), The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961-3012, doi:10.1256/qj.04.176. (Pubitemid 43186171)
18. van Oldenborgh, G. J., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, B. Wouters and W. Hazeleger (2012), Skill in the trend and internal variability in a multi-model decadal prediction ensemble, Clim. Dyn., in press.