Multidecadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability in CMIP5 historical simulations

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

Volumn 118, Issue 10, 2013, Pages 5772-5791

  Zhang, Liping ^a,b   Wang, Chunzai ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI   (United States)

^b ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC AND METEOROLOGICAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

AMO; AMOC

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS;

AMO; AMOC; ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATIONS; ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATIONS; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; DENSITY GRADIENTS; HISTORICAL SIMULATION; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES;

OCEANOGRAPHY;

HEAT TRANSFER; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TIMESCALE; UPPER OCEAN;

ATLANTIC OCEAN;

EID: 84890280113     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21699291     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/jgrc.20390     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. Booth, B. B. B., N. J. Dunstone, P. R. Halloran, and, T. N. Andrews Bellouin, (2012), Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability, Nature, 484, 228-232.
2. Bretherton, C. S., M. Widmann, V. P. Dymnikov, J. M. Wallace, and, I. Blade, (1999), The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field, J. Clim., 12, 1990-2009. (Pubitemid 29532514)
3. Bryden, H. L., H. R. Longworth, and, S. A. Cunningham, (2005), Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25oN, Nature, 438, 655-657. (Pubitemid 41740573)
4. Cheng, W., and, J. C. H. Chiang, (2013), Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 models: RCP and historical simulations, J. Clim., 26, 7187-7197.
5. Cunningham, S. A., et al. (2007), Temporal variability for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5oN, Science, 317, 935-937.
6. Czaja, A., and, C. Frankignoul, (2002) Observed impact of North Atlantic SST anomalies on the North Atlantic oscillation, J. Clim., 15, 606-623. (Pubitemid 34287414)
7. Delworth, T. L., and, M. E. Mann, (2000), Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern hemisphere, Clim. Dyn., 16, 661-676.
8. Delworth, T. L., S., Manabe, and, R. J. Stouffer, (1993), Interdecadal variation in the thermohaline circulation in a coupled oceanatmosphere model, J. Clim., 6, 1993-2011.
9. Deshayes, J., and, C. Frankignoul, (2008), Simulated variability of the circulation of the North Atlantic from 1953 to 2003, J. Clim., 21, 4919-4933.
10. Dickson, R., J. Lazier, J. Meincke, P. Rhines, and, J. Swift, (1996), Long term coordinated changes in the convective activity of the North Atlantic, Prog. Oceanogr., 38, 241-295.
11. Eden, C., and, J. Willebrand, (2001), Mechanisms of interannual to decadal variability of the North Atlantic circulation, J. Clim., 14, 2266-2280. (Pubitemid 33038321)
12. Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and, P. J. Trimble, (2001), The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental US, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077-2080. (Pubitemid 34039420)
13. Folland, C. K., D. E. Parker, and, F. E. Kates, (1984), Worldwide marine temperature fluctuations 1856-1981, Nature, 310, 670-673. (Pubitemid 16262462)
14. Folland, C. K., D. E. Parker, and, T. N. Palmer, (1986), Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901-85, Nature, 320, 602-607. (Pubitemid 17269950)
15. Folland, C. K., A. W. Colman, D. P. Rowell, and, M. K. Davey, (2001), Predictability of northeast Brazil rainfall and real-time forecast skill, 1987-98, J. Clim., 14, 1937-1958. (Pubitemid 33050336)
16. Folland, C. K., J. Knight, H. W. Linderholm, D. Fereday, S. Ineson, and, J. W. Hurrell, (2009), The summer North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future, J. Clim., 22, 1082-1103.
17. Frankcombe, L. M., H. A. Dijkstra, and, A. von der Heydt, (2009), Noise-induced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: Excitation of normal modes, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 39, 220-233.
18. Ganachaud, A., (2003), Large-scale mass transports, water mass formation, and diffusivities estimated from World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) hydrographic data, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 3213, doi: 10.1029/2002JC001565.
19. Ganachaud, A., and, C. Wunsch, (2000), Improved estimates of global ocean circulation, heat transport and mixing from hydrographic data, Nature, 408, 453-457.
20. Gastineau, G., and, C. Frankignoul, (2012), Cold-season atmospheric response to the natural variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Clim. Dyn., 39, 37-57.
21. Gastineau, G., F. D. Andrea, and, C. Frankignoul, (2013), Atmospheric response to the North Atlantic Ocean variability on seasonal to decadal time scales, Clim. Dyn., 40, 9-10.
22. Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and, W. M. Gray, (2001), The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications, Science, 293, 474-479. (Pubitemid 32679071)
23. Gray, W. M., J. D. Sheaffer, and, C. W. Landsea, (1997), Climate trends associated with multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity, in Hurricanes: Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts, edited by, H. F. Diaz, and, R. S. Pulwarty, pp. 15-53, Springer, New York.
24. Häkkinen, S., (1999), Variability of the simulated meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic for the period 1951-1993, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 10,991-11,007.
25. Hansen, J., et al. (2005), Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications, Science, 308, 1431-1435, doi: 10.1126/science.1110252. (Pubitemid 40791291)
26. Jackson, L., and, M. Vellinga, (2012), Multidecadal to centennial variability of the AMOC: HadCM3 and a perturbed physics ensemble, J. Clim., 26, 2390-2407.
27. Johnson, G. C., (2008), Quantifying Antarctic bottom water and North Atlantic deep water volumes, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C05027, doi: 10.1029/2007JC004477.
28. Knight, J. R., (2009), The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation inferred from the forced climate response in coupled general circulation models, J. Clim., 22, 1610-1625.
29. Knight, J. R., R. J. Allan, C. K. Folland, M. Vellinga, and, M. E. Mann, (2005), A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20708, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024233.
30. Knight, J. R., C. K. Folland, and, A. A. Scaife, (2006), Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17706, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026242.
31. Kravtsov, S., and, C. Spannagle, (2008), Multidecadal climate variability in observed and modeled surface temperatures, J. Clim., 21, 1104-1121. (Pubitemid 351736230)
32. Lee, S. K., and, C. Wang, (2010), Delayed advective oscillation of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, J. Clim., 23, 1254-1261.
33. Lumpkin, R., and, K. Speer, (2003), Large-scale vertical and horizontal circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 1902-1920. (Pubitemid 37240745)
34. Mann, M. E., and, J. M. Lees, (1996), Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series, Clim. Change, 33, 409-445.
35. McCabe, G. J., M. A. Palecki, and, J. L. Betancourt, (2004), Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 101, 4136-4141. (Pubitemid 38405895)
36. Medhaug, I., and, T. Furevik, (2011), North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: Sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation, Ocean Sci., 7, 389-404.
37. Medhaug, I., H. R. Langehaug, T. Eldevik, T. Furevik, and, M. Bentsen, (2012), Mechanisms for decadal scale variability in a simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Clim. Dyn., 39, 77-93.
38. Mestas-Nuñez, A. M., and, D. B. Enfield, (1999), Rotated global modes of non-ENSO sea surface temperature variability, J. Clim., 12, 2734-2746. (Pubitemid 30039774)
39. Msadek, R., and, C. Frankignoul, (2009), Atlantic multidecadal oceanic variability and its influence on the atmosphere in a climate model, Clim. Dyn., 33, 45-62.
40. Otterå, O. H., H. Drange, M. Bentsen, N. G. Kvamstø, and, D. Jiang, (2003), The sensitivity of the present-day Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to freshwater forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1898, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017578.
41. Otterå, O. H., M. Bentsen, H. Drange, and, L. Suo, (2010), External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability, Nat. Geosci., 3, 688-694.
42. Parker, D., C. Folland, A. Scaife, J. Knight, A. Colman, P. Baines, and, B. Dong, (2007), Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D18115, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008411.
43. Rodwell, M. J., and, C. K. Folland, (2003), Atlantic air-sea interaction and model validation, Ann. Geophys., 46, 47-56. (Pubitemid 38532178)
44. Rowell, D. P., (2003), The impact of Mediterranean SSTs on the Sahelian rainfall season, J. Clim., 16, 849-862. (Pubitemid 37164406)
45. Rowell, D. P., C. K. Folland, K. Maskell, and, M. N. Ward, (1995), Variability of summer rainfall over tropical North-Africa (1906-92) observations and modelling, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 669-704.
46. Schott, F. A., J. P. McCreary, and, G. C. Johnson, (2004), Shallow overturning circulation of the tropical-subtropical oceans, in Earth Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, edited by, C. Wang, S. Xie, and, J. A. Carton, AGU Geophys. Monogr. Series, 147, 261-304.
47. Smethie, W. M., and, R. A. Fine, (2001), Rates of North Atlantic deep water formation calculated from chlorofluorocarbon inventories, Deep Sea Res., Part I, 48, 189-215.
48. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and, J. Lawrimore, (2008) Improvements to 598 NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006), J. Clim., 21, 2283-2296. (Pubitemid 351844078)
49. Sutton, R. T., and, B. Dong, (2012), Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s, Nat. Geosci., 5, 788-792.
50. Sutton, R. T., and, D. L. R. Hodson, (2005), Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate, Science, 309, 115-118. (Pubitemid 40934986)
51. Talley, L. D., J. L. Reid, and, P. E. Robbins, (2003), Data-based meridional overturning streamfunctions for the global ocean, J. Clim., 16, 3213-3226. (Pubitemid 37436401)
52. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and, G. A. Meehl, (2012), An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498.
53. Thorpe, R. B., J. M. Gregory, T. C. Johns, R. A. Wood, and, J. F. B. Mitchell, (2001), Mechanisms determining the Atlantic thermohaline circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in a non flux-adjusted coupled climate model, J. Clim., 14, 3102-3116. (Pubitemid 33045282)
54. Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and, C. Li, (2009), Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic, J. Clim., 22, 1469-1481.
55. Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and, C. Li, (2011), Robust features of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and its climate impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L17705, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048712.
56. Trenberth, K. E., and, D. J. Shea, (2006), Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12704, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026894.
57. Vellinga, M., and, P. Wu, (2004), Low-latitude freshwater influence on centennial variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, J. Clim., 17, 4498-4511. (Pubitemid 40098859)
58. Wang, C., and, S. K. Lee, (2009), Co-variability of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and the Eastern North Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L24702, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041469.
59. Wang, C., and, L. Zhang, (2013), Multidecadal ocean temperature and salinity variability in the tropical North Atlantic: Linking with the AMO, AMOC and subtropical cell, J. Clim., 26, 6137-6162.
60. Wang, C., S. Dong, and, E. Munoz, (2010), Seawater density variations in the North Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Clim. Dyn., 34, 953-968.
61. Wang, C., S. Dong, A. T. Evan, G. R. Foltz, and, S. K. Lee, (2012), Multidecadal covariability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature, African dust, Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes, J. Clim., 25, 5404-5415.
62. Wang, C., L. Zhang, and, S.-K. Lee, (2013), Response of freshwater flux and sea surface salinity to variability of the Atlantic warm pool, J. Clim., 26, 1249-1267, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00284.1.
63. Wunsch, C., and, P. Heimbach, (2006), Estimated decadal changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and heat flux 1993-2004, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 36, 2012-2024. (Pubitemid 44970828)
64. Zhang, R., (2008), Coherent surface-subsurface fingerprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20705, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035463.
65. Zhang, R., (2010), Latitudinal dependence of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16703, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044474.
66. Zhang, L., and, C. Wang, (2012), Remote influences on freshwater flux variability in the Atlantic warm pool region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19714, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053530.
67. Zhang, L., C. Wang, and, L. Wu, (2012), Low-frequency modulation of the Atlantic warm pool by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, Clim. Dyn., 39, 1661-1671.
68. Zhang, L., L. Wu, X. Lin, and, D. Wu, (2010), Modes and mechanisms of sea surface temperature low-frequency variations over the coastal China seas, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C08031, doi: 10.1029/2009JC006025.
69. Zhang, R., et al. (2013), Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability?, J. Atmos. Sci., 70 (4), 1135-1144, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1.