메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 26, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 726-739

The Indian ocean: The region of highest skill worldwide in decadal climate prediction

Author keywords

Aerosols; Climate models; Climate prediction; Ensembles; Hindcasts

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE STATE; ENSEMBLES; FORCED VARIABILITY; HINDCASTS; HISTORICAL SIMULATION; INDIAN OCEAN; INITIAL CONDITIONS; INTERNAL VARIABILITY; LEAST SQUARE; RADIATIVE FORCINGS; ROOT-MEAN-SQUARE ERRORS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); SOLAR ACTIVITY; STRATOSPHERIC AEROSOLS; VOLCANIC AEROSOLS;

EID: 84871210187     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00049.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (54)

References (47)
  • 1
    • 0035671505 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO
    • Ashok, K., Z. Guan, and T. Yamagata, 2001: Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4499-4502.
    • (2001) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.28 , pp. 4499-4502
    • Ashok, K.1    Guan, Z.2    Yamagata, T.3
  • 2
    • 0242337482 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Australian winter rainfall
    • doi:10.1029/2003GL017926
    • Ashok, K., Z. Guan, and T. Yamagata, 2003: Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Australian winter rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1821, doi:10.1029/2003GL017926.
    • (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.30 , pp. 1821
    • Ashok, K.1    Guan, Z.2    Yamagata, T.3
  • 3
    • 31544440425 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • North Atlantic oscillation response to anomalous Indian Ocean SST in a coupled GCM
    • Bader, J., and M. Latif, 2005: North Atlantic oscillation response to anomalous Indian Ocean SST in a coupled GCM. J. Climate, 18, 5382-5389.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 5382-5389
    • Bader, J.1    Latif, M.2
  • 4
    • 84861436461 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NEMOVAR-COMBINE ocean re-analysis
    • Available online at
    • Balmaseda, M. A., K. Mogensen, F. Moteni, and A. Weaver, 2010: The NEMOVAR-COMBINE ocean re-analysis. COMBINE Tech. Rep. 1, 11 pp. [Available online at http://www.combineproject. eu/Technical-Reports.1668.0.html.]
    • (2010) COMBINE Tech. Rep. , vol.1 , pp. 11
    • Balmaseda, M.A.1    Mogensen, K.2    Moteni, F.3    Weaver, A.4
  • 5
    • 0033560472 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Indian Ocean climate event floods to East Africa's lakes and the Sudd Marsh
    • Birkett, C., R. Murtugudde, and T. Allan, 1999: Indian Ocean climate event floods to East Africa's lakes and the Sudd Marsh. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1031-1034.
    • (1999) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.26 , pp. 1031-1034
    • Birkett, C.1    Murtugudde, R.2    Allan, T.3
  • 6
    • 79952251219 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal potential predictability of twenty-first century climate
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0747-9
    • Boer, G. J., 2011: Decadal potential predictability of twenty-first century climate. Climate Dyn., 36, 1119-1133, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0747-9.
    • (2011) Climate Dyn. , vol.36 , pp. 1119-1133
    • Boer, G.J.1
  • 7
    • 33847153042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0193-x
    • Boer, G. J., M. Stowasser, and K. Hamilton, 2007: Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events. Climate Dyn., 28, 481-502, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0193-x.
    • (2007) Climate Dyn. , vol.28 , pp. 481-502
    • Boer, G.J.1    Stowasser, M.2    Hamilton, K.3
  • 8
    • 79955446270 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
    • Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597.
    • (2011) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.137 , pp. 553-597
    • Dee, D.P.1
  • 9
    • 77953053780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited
    • doi:10.1029/2010GL043321
    • Deser, C., A. Phillips, and M. A. Alexander, 2010a: Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043321.
    • (2010) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.37
    • Deser, C.1    Phillips, A.2    Alexander, M.A.3
  • 10
    • 84856237422 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x
    • Deser, C., A. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng, 2010b: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Climate Dyn., 38, 527-546, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
    • (2010) Climate Dyn. , vol.38 , pp. 527-546
    • Deser, C.1    Phillips, A.2    Bourdette, V.3    Teng, H.4
  • 12
    • 80054809984 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations
    • doi:10.1029/2010JD015394
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., M. A. Balmaseda, A. Weisheimer, and T. N. Palmer, 2011: Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D19111, doi:10.1029/2010JD015394.
    • (2011) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.116
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Balmaseda, M.A.2    Weisheimer, A.3    Palmer, T.N.4
  • 13
    • 84867066318 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations
    • Du, H., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, J. Garcia-Serrano, V. Guemas, Y. Soufflet, and B. Wouters, 2012: Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations. Climate Dyn., 39, 2013-2023.
    • (2012) Climate Dyn. , vol.39 , pp. 2013-2023
    • Du, H.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Garcia-Serrano, J.3    Guemas, V.4    Soufflet, Y.5    Wouters, B.6
  • 14
    • 0030698049 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics
    • Fichefet, T., and M. A. M. Maqueda, 1997: Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics. J. Geophys. Res., 102 (C6), 12 609-12 646.
    • (1997) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.102 , Issue.C6 , pp. 12609-12646
    • Fichefet, T.1    Maqueda, M.A.M.2
  • 15
    • 84867101035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast
    • Garcia-Serrano, J., and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2012: On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast. Climate Dyn., 39, 2025-2040.
    • (2012) Climate Dyn. , vol.39 , pp. 2025-2040
    • Garcia-Serrano, J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
  • 16
    • 0033569014 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Importance of ice-ocean interactions for the global ocean circulation: A model study
    • Goosse, H., and T. Fichefet, 1999: Importance of ice-ocean interactions for the global ocean circulation: A model study. J. Geophys. Res., 104 (C10), 23 337-23 355.
    • (1999) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.104 , Issue.C10 , pp. 23337-23355
    • Goosse, H.1    Fichefet, T.2
  • 17
    • 0034025893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Center coupled model without flux adjustments
    • Gordon, C., C. Cooper, C. Senior, H. Banks, J. Gregory, T. Johns, J. Mithell, and R. Wood, 2000: The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Center coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dyn., 16, 147-168.
    • (2000) Climate Dyn. , vol.16 , pp. 147-168
    • Gordon, C.1    Cooper, C.2    Senior, C.3    Banks, H.4    Gregory, J.5    Johns, T.6    Mithell, J.7    Wood, R.8
  • 19
    • 68749096042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: Forecast skill and optimal perturbations using linear inverse modeling
    • Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2009a: Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: Forecast skill and optimal perturbations using linear inverse modeling. J. Climate, 22, 3960-3978.
    • (2009) J. Climate , vol.22 , pp. 3960-3978
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 20
    • 70450173156 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions
    • Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2009b: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull.Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1095-1107.
    • (2009) Bull.Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.90 , pp. 1095-1107
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 21
    • 78649255798 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EC-Earth: A seamless Earthsystem prediction approach in action
    • Hazeleger, W., and Coauthors, 2010: EC-Earth: A seamless Earthsystem prediction approach in action. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1357-1363.
    • (2010) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.91 , pp. 1357-1363
    • Hazeleger, W.1
  • 22
    • 0035815468 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change
    • doi:10.1126/science.1058582
    • Hoerling, M. P., J. W. Hurrell, and T. Xu, 2001: Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change. Science, 292, 90-92, doi:10.1126/science.1058582.
    • (2001) Science , vol.292 , pp. 90-92
    • Hoerling, M.P.1    Hurrell, J.W.2    Xu, T.3
  • 23
    • 43049138035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector
    • doi:10.1038/nature06921
    • Keenlyside, N. S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature, 453, 84-88, doi:10.1038/nature06921.
    • (2008) Nature , vol.453 , pp. 84-88
    • Keenlyside, N.S.1    Latif, M.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Kornblueh, L.4    Roeckner, E.5
  • 25
    • 84874802622 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the dependence of ENSO simulation on the coupled model mean state
    • Magnusson, L., M. A. Balmaseda, and F. Molteni, 2011: On the dependence of ENSO simulation on the coupled model mean state. ECMWF Tech. Memo. 658, 27 pp.
    • (2011) ECMWF Tech. Memo. , vol.658 , pp. 27
    • Magnusson, L.1    Balmaseda, M.A.2    Molteni, F.3
  • 26
    • 68749111016 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal prediction
    • Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2009: Decadal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1467-1485.
    • (2009) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.90 , pp. 1467-1485
    • Meehl, G.A.1
  • 27
    • 76649101457 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction
    • doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107
    • Mochizuki, T., and Coauthors, 2010: Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 1833-1837, doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107.
    • (2010) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , vol.107 , pp. 1833-1837
    • Mochizuki, T.1
  • 28
    • 84868683385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (system 4)
    • Molteni, F., and Coauthors, 2011: The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (system 4). ECMWF Tech. Memo. 656, 49 pp.
    • (2011) ECMWF Tech. Memo. , vol.656 , pp. 49
    • Molteni, F.1
  • 29
    • 4043124611 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
    • Murphy, J., D. Sexton, D. Barnett, G. Jones, M. Webb, M. Collins, and D. Stainforth, 2004: Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature, 430, 768-772.
    • (2004) Nature , vol.430 , pp. 768-772
    • Murphy, J.1    Sexton, D.2    Barnett, D.3    Jones, G.4    Webb, M.5    Collins, M.6    Stainforth, D.7
  • 31
    • 68749116591 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic
    • Pohlmann, H., J. H. Jungclaus, A. Kohl, D. Stammer, and J. Marotzke, 2009: Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 3926-3938.
    • (2009) J. Climate , vol.22 , pp. 3926-3938
    • Pohlmann, H.1    Jungclaus, J.H.2    Kohl, A.3    Stammer, D.4    Marotzke, J.5
  • 32
    • 0034108544 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model-HadAM3
    • doi:10.1007/s003820050009
    • Pope, V. D., M. L. Gallani, P. R. Rowntree, and R. A. Stratton, 2000: The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model-HadAM3. Climate Dyn., 16, 123-146, doi:10.1007/s003820050009.
    • (2000) Climate Dyn. , vol.16 , pp. 123-146
    • Pope, V.D.1    Gallani, M.L.2    Rowntree, P.R.3    Stratton, R.A.4
  • 34
    • 81455152792 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Understanding the performance of a decadal prediction system
    • University of Reading
    • Robson, J., 2010: Understanding the performance of a decadal prediction system. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Reading, 133 pp.
    • (2010) Ph.D. dissertation , pp. 133
    • Robson, J.1
  • 36
    • 53749085487 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • North Atlantic weather regimes response to Indian-western Pacific Ocean warming: A multi-model study
    • doi:10.1029/2008GL034345
    • Sanchez-Gomez, E., C. Cassou, D. L. R. Hodson, N. Keenlyside, Y. Okumura, and T. Zhou, 2008: North Atlantic weather regimes response to Indian-western Pacific Ocean warming: A multi-model study. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L15706, doi:10.1029/2008GL034345.
    • (2008) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.35
    • Sanchez-Gomez, E.1    Cassou, C.2    Hodson, D.L.R.3    Keenlyside, N.4    Okumura, Y.5    Zhou, T.6
  • 38
    • 34547903564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model
    • doi:10.1126/science.1139540
    • Smith, D. M., A. Cusack, A. Colman, C. Folland, G. Harris, and J. M. Murphy, 2007: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796-799, doi:10.1126/science.1139540.
    • (2007) Science , vol.317 , pp. 796-799
    • Smith, D.M.1    Cusack, A.2    Colman, A.3    Folland, C.4    Harris, G.5    Murphy, J.M.6
  • 40
    • 0034492059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Southwest Western Australian winter rainfall and its association with Indian Ocean climate variability
    • Smith, I. N., P. McIntosh, T. Ansell, C. J. C. Reason, and K. McInnes, 2000: Southwest Western Australian winter rainfall and its association with Indian Ocean climate variability. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1913-1930.
    • (2000) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.20 , pp. 1913-1930
    • Smith, I.N.1    McIntosh, P.2    Ansell, T.3    Reason, C.J.C.4    McInnes, K.5
  • 41
    • 45349109008 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)
    • Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283-2296.
    • (2008) J. Climate , vol.21 , pp. 2283-2296
    • Smith, T.M.1    Reynolds, R.W.2    Peterson, T.C.3    Lawrimore, J.4
  • 43
    • 18544379278 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ERA-40: ECMWF 45-year reanalysis of the global atmosphere and surface conditions 1957-2000
    • ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
    • Uppala, S., and Coauthors, 2004: ERA-40: ECMWF 45-year reanalysis of the global atmosphere and surface conditions 1957-2000. ECMWF Newsletter, No. 101, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 2-21.
    • (2004) ECMWF Newsletter , Issue.101 , pp. 2-21
    • Uppala, S.1
  • 44
    • 84859008719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1313-4
    • Van Oldenborgh, G. J., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, B. Wouters, and W. Hazeleger, 2012: Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble. Climate Dyn., 38, 1263-1280, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1313-4.
    • (2012) Climate Dyn. , vol.38 , pp. 1263-1280
    • Van Oldenborgh, G.J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Wouters, B.3    Hazeleger, W.4
  • 46
    • 0035707105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The New Meteorological Research Institute coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2) model climate and variability
    • Yukimoto, S., and Coauthors, 2001: The New Meteorological Research Institute coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2) model climate and variability. Pap. Meteor. Geophys., 51, 47-88.
    • (2001) Pap. Meteor. Geophys. , vol.51 , pp. 47-88
    • Yukimoto, S.1
  • 47
    • 77950405851 scopus 로고
    • Effective number of observations and unbiased estimators of variance for autocorrelated data-An overview
    • Zieba, A., 1995: Effective number of observations and unbiased estimators of variance for autocorrelated data-An overview. Metrol. Meas. Syst., 17, 3-16.
    • (1995) Metrol. Meas. Syst. , vol.17 , pp. 3-16
    • Zieba, A.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.