Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction

Nature Communications

Volumn 4, Issue , 2013, Pages

  Doblas Reyes, F J ^a,b   Andreu Burillo, I ^b   Chikamoto, Y ^c   Garcia Serrano J ^b,d   Guemas, V ^b,e   Kimoto, M ^d   Mochizuki, T ^f   Rodrigues, L R L ^b   Van Oldenborgh, G J ^g  

^a INSTITUCIÓ CATALANA DE RECERCA I ESTUDIS AVANÇATS ICREA   (Spain)

^b Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit Institut Català de Ciències del Clima IC3   (Spain)

^c UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

^e CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES   (France)

^f JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Japan)

^g ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CHEMICAL COMPOSITION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; COMMUNITY STRUCTURE; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ADAPTATION; ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; PREDICTION; RELIABILITY;

EID: 84877744693     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20411723     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms2704     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Meehl, G. A. et al. Decadal prediction: can it be skillful? Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 90, 1467-1485 (2009).
2. Smith, D. M., Cusack, S., Colman, A. W., Folland, C. K., Harris, G. R. & Murphy, J. M. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317, 796-799 (2007). (Pubitemid 47257915)
3. Smith, D. M. et al. Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency. Nat. Geosci. 3, 846-849 (2010).
4. van Oldenborgh, G. J., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Wouters, B. & Hazeleger, W. Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble. Climate Dyn. 38, 1263-1280 (2012).
5. Boer, G. J. Decadal potential predictability of twenty-first century climate. Climate Dyn. 36, 1119-1133 (2011).
6. Lean, J. L. & Rind, D. H. How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L15708 (2009).
7. Krueger, O. & von Storch, J.-S. A simple empirical model for decadal climate prediction. J. Climate 24, 1276-1283 (2011).
8. Hawkins, E., Robson, J., Sutton, R., Smith, D. & Keenlyside, N. Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Climate Dyn. 37, 2495-2509 (2011).
9. Meehl, G. A. et al. The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1383-1394 (2007). (Pubitemid 47616759)
10. Ruokolainen, L. & Räisäinen, J. Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change: sensitivity to adjustment of simulated variability and choice of baseline period. Tellus 59A, 309-320 (2007). (Pubitemid 46605427)
11. Laepple, T., Jewson, S. & Coughlin, K. Interannual temperature predictions using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L10701 (2008).
12. Lee, T. C. K., Zwiers, F., Zhang, X. & Tsao, M. Evidence of decadal climate prediction skill resulting from changes in anthropogenic forcing. J. Climate 19, 5305-5318 (2006). (Pubitemid 44712444)
13. Keenlyside, N. S., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueh, L. & Roeckner, E. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453, 84-88 (2008). (Pubitemid 351630335)
14. Pohlmann, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Köhl, A., Stammer, D. & Marotzke, J. Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic. J. Climate 22, 3926-3938 (2009).
15. Mochizuki, T. et al. Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction. PNAS 107, 1833-1837 (2010).
16. Mochizuki, T. et al. Decadal prediction using a recent series of MIROC global climate models. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 90A, 373-383 (2012).
17. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Balmaseda, M. A., Weisheimer, A. & Palmer, T. N. Decadal climate prediction with the ECMWF coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D19111 (2011).
18. Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Climate Dyn. 37, 407-418 (2011).
19. Slingo, J. & Palmer, T. N. Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A 369, 4751-4767 (2011).
20. Palmer, T. N. Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate. Rep. Prog. Phys. 63, 71-116 (2000).
21. Pennell, C. & Reichler, T. On the effective number of climate models. J. Climate 24, 2358-2367 (2011).
22. Masson, D. & Knutti, R. Climate model genealogy. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L08703 (2011).
23. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experimental design. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485-498 (2012).
24. Kim, H.-M., Webster, P. J. & Curry, J. A. Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L10701 (2012).
25. García-Serrano, J. & Doblas-Reyes, F. J. On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast. Climate Dyn. 39, 2025-2040 (2012).
26. Trenberth, K. E. & Shea, D. J. Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L12704 (2006).
27. Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A. & Mehta, V. Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Climate Dyn. 15, 319-324 (1999). (Pubitemid 29414087)
28. Murphy, J. et al. Towards prediction of decadal climate variability and change. Procedia Environ. Sci. 1, 287-304 (2010).
29. García-Serrano, J., Doblas-Reyes, F. J. & Coelho, C. A. S. Understanding Atlantic multi-decadal variability prediction skill. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L18708 (2012).
30. Booth, B. B. B., Dunstone, N. J., Halloran, P. R., Andrews, T. & Bellouin, N. Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature 453, 84-88 (2012).
31. Goddard, L. et al. A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dyn. 40, 245-272 (2012).
32. Kharin, V. V., Boer, G. J., Merryfield, W. J., Scinocca, J. F. & Lee, W.-S. Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L19705 (2012).
33. Easterling, D. R. & Wehner, M. F. Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, doi:10.1029/2009GL037810 (2009).
34. Smith, D. M. et al. Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Climate Dyn. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-012-1600-0 (2012).
35. Meehl, G. A. & Teng, H. Case studies for initialized decadal hindcasts and predictions for the Pacific region. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L22705 (2012).
36. Guemas, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Lienert, F., Du, H. & Soufflet, Y. Identifying the causes for the low decadal climate forecast skill over the North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D20111 (2012).
37. Palmer, T. N., Buizza, R., Hagedorn, R., Lawrence, A., Leutbecher, M. & Smith, L. Ensemble prediction: a pedagogical perspective. ECMWF Newsletter 106, 10-17 (2006).
38. Hagedorn, R., Doblas-Reyes, F. J. & Palmer, T. N. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part I: Basic concept. Tellus A 57, 219-233 (2005). (Pubitemid 40659620)
39. Du, H., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., García-Serrano, J., Guemas, V., Soufflet, Y. & Wouters, B. Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations. Climate Dyn. 39, 2013-2023 (2012).
40. Hewitt, C., Mason, S. & Walland, D. The global framework for climate services. Nat. Clim. Chan. 2, 831-832 (2012).
41. Ewert, F. Adaptation: opportunities in climate change? Nat. Clim. Chan. 2, 153-154 (2012).
42. Sugiura, N. et al. The potential for decadal predictability in the North Pacific region. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L20701 (2009).
43. Chikamoto, Y. et al. Predictability of a stepwise shift in Pacific climate during the late 1990s in hindcast experiments using MIROC. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 90A, 1-21 (2012).
44. Gangstø, R., Weigel, A. P., Liniger, M. A. & Appenzeller, C. Methodological aspects of the validation of decadal predictions. Clim. Res. 55, 181-200 (2013).
45. Corti, S., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Doblas-Reyes, F. J. & Magnusson, L. Reliability of decadal predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L21712 (2012).
46. McSharry, P. E. & Smith, L. A. Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. Physica D 192, 1-22 (2004).
47. Fan, Y. & van den Dool, H. A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948-present. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D01103 (2008).
48. Smith, T., Reynolds, R., Peterson, T. & Lawrimore, J. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J. Clim. 21, 2283-2296 (2008). (Pubitemid 351844078)
49. Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M. & Lo, K. Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004 (2010).
50. Rudolf, B., Becker, A., Schneider, U., Meyer-Christoffer, A. & Ziese, M. The new "GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 5" providing high-quality gridded monthly precipitation data for the global land-surface is public available since December 2010. GPCC Tech. Rep. available from gpcc.dwd.de (2010).
51. Jolliffe, I. T. & Stephenson, D. B. Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 292. (Wiley, 2012).
52. von Storch, H. & Zwiers, F. W. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, 484. (Cambridge University Press, 2001).
53. Gordon, C. et al. The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dyn. 16, 147-168 (2000). (Pubitemid 30192427)
54. Pope, V. D., Gallani, M. L., Rowntree, P. R. & Stratton, R. A. The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model-HadAM3. Climate Dyn. 16, 123-146 (2000). (Pubitemid 30192426)
55. Watanabe, M. et al. Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J. Clim. 23, 6312-6335 (2010).
56. Fyfe, J. C. et al. Skillful predictions of decadal trends in global mean surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L22801 (2011).
57. Delworth, T. L. et al. GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models-Part 1: formulation and simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 19, 643-674 (2006).
58. Matei, D. et al. Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. J. Clim. 25, 8502-8523 (2012).