메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 39, Issue 6, 2015, Pages 1216-1258

Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events

Author keywords

Bayesianism; Frequentism; Mental models; Subjective probabilities

Indexed keywords

BAYES THEOREM; DECISION MAKING; HUMAN; PHYSIOLOGY; PROBABILITY; THEORETICAL MODEL; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84937696376     PISSN: 03640213     EISSN: 15516709     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/cogs.12193     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (46)

References (103)
  • 4
    • 36148974334 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes
    • Barbey, A. K., & Sloman, S. A. (2007). Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30, 241-297.
    • (2007) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.30 , pp. 241-297
    • Barbey, A.K.1    Sloman, S.A.2
  • 6
    • 21344488391 scopus 로고
    • How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments
    • Bar-Hillel, M., & Neter, E. (1993). How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 1119-1131.
    • (1993) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.65 , pp. 1119-1131
    • Bar-Hillel, M.1    Neter, E.2
  • 8
    • 0004201621 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 4th ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press
    • Baron, J. (2008). Thinking and deciding (4th ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2008) Thinking and deciding
    • Baron, J.1
  • 13
    • 0038458649 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the directionality of probability words from their membership functions
    • Budescu, D. V., Karelitz, T. M., & Wallsten, T. S. (2003). Predicting the directionality of probability words from their membership functions. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 16, 159-180.
    • (2003) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.16 , pp. 159-180
    • Budescu, D.V.1    Karelitz, T.M.2    Wallsten, T.S.3
  • 15
    • 84921544606 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New York: Oxford University Press
    • Carey, S. (2009). The origin of concepts. New York: Oxford University Press.
    • (2009) The origin of concepts
    • Carey, S.1
  • 16
    • 33746263998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic models of cognition: Conceptual foundations
    • Chater, N., Tenenbaum, J. B., & Yuille, A. (2006). Probabilistic models of cognition: Conceptual foundations. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10, 287-291.
    • (2006) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.10 , pp. 287-291
    • Chater, N.1    Tenenbaum, J.B.2    Yuille, A.3
  • 17
    • 0039630447 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From covariation to causation: A causal power theory
    • Cheng, P. W. (1997). From covariation to causation: A causal power theory. Psychological Review, 104, 367-405.
    • (1997) Psychological Review , vol.104 , pp. 367-405
    • Cheng, P.W.1
  • 18
    • 0042123195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all?" Rethinking some conclusions of the literature on judgment under uncertainty
    • Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all?" Rethinking some conclusions of the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition, 58, 1-73.
    • (1996) Cognition , vol.58 , pp. 1-73
    • Cosmides, L.1    Tooby, J.2
  • 19
    • 0004148080 scopus 로고
    • Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
    • Craik, K. (1943). The nature of explanation. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1943) The nature of explanation
    • Craik, K.1
  • 20
    • 0027560587 scopus 로고
    • Approximating probabilistic inference in Bayesian belief networks is NP-hard
    • Dagum, P., & Luby, M. (1993). Approximating probabilistic inference in Bayesian belief networks is NP-hard. Artificial Intelligence, 60, 141-153.
    • (1993) Artificial Intelligence , vol.60 , pp. 141-153
    • Dagum, P.1    Luby, M.2
  • 21
    • 0004069989 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press
    • Dehaene, S. (1997). The number sense. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
    • (1997) The number sense
    • Dehaene, S.1
  • 23
    • 84877321990 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The probabilities of conditionals revisited
    • Douven, I., & Verbrugge, S. (2013). The probabilities of conditionals revisited. Cognitive Science, 37, 711-730.
    • (2013) Cognitive Science , vol.37 , pp. 711-730
    • Douven, I.1    Verbrugge, S.2
  • 25
    • 41549146748 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dual-processing accounts of reasoning, judgment and social cognition
    • Evans, J. St. B. T. (2008). Dual-processing accounts of reasoning, judgment and social cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 59, 255-278.
    • (2008) Annual Review of Psychology , vol.59 , pp. 255-278
    • Evans, J.S.B.T.1
  • 26
    • 84858612960 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Questions and challenges for the new psychology of reasoning
    • Evans, J. St. B. T. (2012). Questions and challenges for the new psychology of reasoning. Thinking & Reasoning, 18, 5-31.
    • (2012) Thinking & Reasoning , vol.18 , pp. 5-31
    • Evans, J.S.B.T.1
  • 27
    • 84877123378 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dual-process theories of higher cognition: Advancing the debate
    • Evans, J. St. B. T., &Stanovich, K. (2013). Dual-process theories of higher cognition: Advancing the debate. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8, 223-241.
    • (2013) Perspectives on Psychological Science , vol.8 , pp. 223-241
    • Evans, J.S.B.T.1    Stanovich, K.2
  • 28
    • 0032339104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Judgment and decision making: Behavioral approaches
    • Fantino, E. (1998). Judgment and decision making: Behavioral approaches. The Behavior Analyst, 21, 203-218.
    • (1998) The Behavior Analyst , vol.21 , pp. 203-218
    • Fantino, E.1
  • 30
    • 34249758397 scopus 로고
    • The logic of probability [trans. Angell, R.B. of 1936 original]. The logic of probability
    • de Finetti, B. (1995). The logic of probability [trans. Angell, R.B. of 1936 original]. The logic of probability. Philosophical Studies, 77, 181-190.
    • (1995) Philosophical Studies , vol.77 , pp. 181-190
    • de Finetti, B.1
  • 32
    • 0001939454 scopus 로고
    • Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is relevant for psychology and vice versa
    • In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.),New York: Wiley
    • Gigerenzer, G. (1994). Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is relevant for psychology and vice versa. In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective probability (pp. 129-162). New York: Wiley.
    • (1994) Subjective probability , pp. 129-162
    • Gigerenzer, G.1
  • 33
    • 39049143373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fast and frugal heuristics are plausible models of cognition: Reply to Dougherty, Franco-Watkins, and Thomas (2008)
    • Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Goldstein, D. G. (2008). Fast and frugal heuristics are plausible models of cognition: Reply to Dougherty, Franco-Watkins, and Thomas (2008). Psychological Review, 115, 1230-1239.
    • (2008) Psychological Review , vol.115 , pp. 1230-1239
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hoffrage, U.2    Goldstein, D.G.3
  • 34
    • 84858757391 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The psychology of inferring conditionals from disjunctions: A probabilistic study
    • Gilio, A., & Over, D. (2012). The psychology of inferring conditionals from disjunctions: A probabilistic study. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 56, 118-131.
    • (2012) Journal of Mathematical Psychology , vol.56 , pp. 118-131
    • Gilio, A.1    Over, D.2
  • 36
    • 5644233702 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Numerical cognition without words: Evidence from Amazonia
    • Gordon, P. (2004). Numerical cognition without words: Evidence from Amazonia. Science, 306, 496-499.
    • (2004) Science , vol.306 , pp. 496-499
    • Gordon, P.1
  • 37
    • 33845705676 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interpretations of probability
    • In E. N. Zaltna (Ed.), Available at. Accessed October 1, 2013
    • Hájek, A. (2003). Interpretations of probability. In E. N. Zaltna (Ed.), The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. Available at http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/sum2003/entries/probability-interpret/. Accessed October 1, 2013.
    • (2003) The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy
    • Hájek, A.1
  • 39
    • 85015547733 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertain reasoning
    • Hosni, H. (2013). Uncertain reasoning. The Reasoner, 7, 60-61.
    • (2013) The Reasoner , vol.7 , pp. 60-61
    • Hosni, H.1
  • 40
    • 0004155291 scopus 로고
    • 2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press
    • Jeffrey, R. (1983). The logic of decision (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    • (1983) The logic of decision
    • Jeffrey, R.1
  • 42
    • 0004196618 scopus 로고
    • Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
    • Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1983). Mental models. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1983) Mental models
    • Johnson-Laird, P.N.1
  • 43
  • 49
    • 84877101748 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A tale of two systems: A scientific advance or a theoretical stone soup? Commentary on Evans & Stanovich (2013)
    • Keren, G. (2013). A tale of two systems: A scientific advance or a theoretical stone soup? Commentary on Evans & Stanovich (2013). Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8, 257-262.
    • (2013) Perspectives on Psychological Science , vol.8 , pp. 257-262
    • Keren, G.1
  • 51
  • 52
    • 84866978284 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The probabilities of unique events
    • Online version
    • Khemlani, S., Lotstein, M., & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (2012). The probabilities of unique events. PLoS ONE, 7, 1-9. Online version.
    • (2012) PLoS ONE , vol.7 , pp. 1-9
    • Khemlani, S.1    Lotstein, M.2    Johnson-Laird, P.N.3
  • 55
    • 84877155197 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Only one? The default interventionist perspective as a unimodel - Commentary on Evans & Stanovich (2013)
    • Kruglanski, A. W. (2013). Only one? The default interventionist perspective as a unimodel - Commentary on Evans & Stanovich (2013). Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8, 242-247.
    • (2013) Perspectives on Psychological Science , vol.8 , pp. 242-247
    • Kruglanski, A.W.1
  • 57
    • 84890369284 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How robust are probabilistic models of higher-level cognition?
    • Marcus, G. F., & Davis, E. (2013). How robust are probabilistic models of higher-level cognition? Psychological Science, 24, 2351-2360.
    • (2013) Psychological Science , vol.24 , pp. 2351-2360
    • Marcus, G.F.1    Davis, E.2
  • 60
    • 84877964933 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantum probability, intuition, and human rationality
    • Oaksford, M. (2013). Quantum probability, intuition, and human rationality. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36, 303.
    • (2013) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.36 , pp. 303
    • Oaksford, M.1
  • 65
    • 0042225509 scopus 로고
    • London: Penguin. (Originally published 1669.)
    • Pascal, B. (1966). Pensées. London: Penguin. (Originally published 1669.)
    • (1966) Pensées
    • Pascal, B.1
  • 67
    • 84887991178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The new psychology of reasoning: A mental probability logical perspective
    • Pfeifer, N. (2013). The new psychology of reasoning: A mental probability logical perspective. Thinking & Reasoning, 19, 329-345.
    • (2013) Thinking & Reasoning , vol.19 , pp. 329-345
    • Pfeifer, N.1
  • 68
    • 21344473890 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards a mental probability logic
    • Pfeifer, N., & Kleiter, G. D. (2005). Towards a mental probability logic. Psychologica Belgica, 45, 71-99.
    • (2005) Psychologica Belgica , vol.45 , pp. 71-99
    • Pfeifer, N.1    Kleiter, G.D.2
  • 69
    • 84877994025 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling?
    • Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2013). Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36, 255-327.
    • (2013) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.36 , pp. 255-327
    • Pothos, E.M.1    Busemeyer, J.R.2
  • 71
    • 0041889226 scopus 로고
    • Truth and probability
    • In D. H. Mellor (Ed.),Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. (Essay originally published in 1926.)
    • Ramsey, F. P. (1990). Truth and probability. In D. H. Mellor (Ed.), F.P. Ramsey: Philosophical Papers (pp. 52-94). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. (Essay originally published in 1926.)
    • (1990) F.P. Ramsey: Philosophical Papers , pp. 52-94
    • Ramsey, F.P.1
  • 72
    • 0024689479 scopus 로고
    • Quantitative meanings of verbal probability expressions
    • Reagan, R. T., Mosteller, F., & Youtz, C. (1989). Quantitative meanings of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Applied Psychology, 74, 433-442. doi:10.1037/0021-9010.74.3.433.
    • (1989) Journal of Applied Psychology , vol.74 , pp. 433-442
    • Reagan, R.T.1    Mosteller, F.2    Youtz, C.3
  • 74
    • 39049147144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Numeracy, ratio bias, and denominator neglect in judgments of risk and probability
    • Reyna, V. F., & Brainerd, C. J. (2008). Numeracy, ratio bias, and denominator neglect in judgments of risk and probability. Learning and Individual Differences, 18, 89-107. doi:10.1016/j.lindif.2007.03.011.
    • (2008) Learning and Individual Differences , vol.18 , pp. 89-107
    • Reyna, V.F.1    Brainerd, C.J.2
  • 77
    • 49949096946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The tractable cognition thesis
    • van Rooij, I. (2008). The tractable cognition thesis. Cognitive Science, 32, 939-984. doi:10.1080/03640210801897856.
    • (2008) Cognitive Science , vol.32 , pp. 939-984
    • van Rooij, I.1
  • 78
    • 0031112849 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: Advances in support theory
    • Rottenstreich, Y., & Tversky, A. (1997). Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: Advances in support theory. Psychological Review, 104, 406-415.
    • (1997) Psychological Review , vol.104 , pp. 406-415
    • Rottenstreich, Y.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 79
    • 77956953017 scopus 로고
    • Assigning probabilities to logical formulas
    • In H. Hintikka & P. Suppes (Eds.),Amsterdam: North-Holland
    • Scott, D., & Krauss, P. (1966). Assigning probabilities to logical formulas. In H. Hintikka & P. Suppes (Eds.), Aspects of inductive logic (pp. 219-264). Amsterdam: North-Holland.
    • (1966) Aspects of inductive logic , pp. 219-264
    • Scott, D.1    Krauss, P.2
  • 80
    • 0024688853 scopus 로고
    • Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the "Problem of three prisoners."
    • Shimojo, S., & Ichikawa, S. (1989). Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the "Problem of three prisoners." Cognition, 32, 1-24.
    • (1989) Cognition , vol.32 , pp. 1-24
    • Shimojo, S.1    Ichikawa, S.2
  • 81
    • 77954557633 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The empirical case for two systems of reasoning
    • Sloman, S. A. (1996). The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, 119, 3-22.
    • (1996) Psychological Bulletin , vol.119 , pp. 3-22
    • Sloman, S.A.1
  • 82
    • 37249066670 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Numeric comparison in a visually-guided manual reaching task
    • Song, J.-H., & Nakayama, K. (2008). Numeric comparison in a visually-guided manual reaching task. Cognition, 106, 994-1003.
    • (2008) Cognition , vol.106 , pp. 994-1003
    • Song, J.-H.1    Nakayama, K.2
  • 84
    • 23044521035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ambiguous probabilities: When does p = 0.3 reflect a possibility, and when does it express a doubt?
    • Teigen, K. H., & Brun, W. (2000). Ambiguous probabilities: When does p = 0.3 reflect a possibility, and when does it express a doubt? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 345-362.
    • (2000) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.13 , pp. 345-362
    • Teigen, K.H.1    Brun, W.2
  • 85
  • 87
    • 43249084062 scopus 로고
    • Extension versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extension versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 292-315.
    • (1983) Psychological Review , vol.90 , pp. 292-315
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 88
    • 12044256982 scopus 로고
    • Support theory: A nonextentional representation of subjective probability
    • Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (1994). Support theory: A nonextentional representation of subjective probability. Psychological Review, 101, 547-567.
    • (1994) Psychological Review , vol.101 , pp. 547-567
    • Tversky, A.1    Koehler, D.J.2
  • 89
    • 84965432094 scopus 로고
    • The disjunction effect in choice under uncertainty
    • Tversky, A., & Shafir, E. (1992). The disjunction effect in choice under uncertainty. Psychological Science, 3, 305-309.
    • (1992) Psychological Science , vol.3 , pp. 305-309
    • Tversky, A.1    Shafir, E.2
  • 91
    • 23844546320 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A dual-process specification of causal conditional reasoning
    • Verschueren, N., Schaeken, W., & d'Ydewalle, G. (2005). A dual-process specification of causal conditional reasoning. Thinking & Reasoning, 11, 278-293.
    • (2005) Thinking & Reasoning , vol.11 , pp. 278-293
    • Verschueren, N.1    Schaeken, W.2    d'Ydewalle, G.3
  • 92
    • 84906350746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability propagation in generalized inference forms
    • Wallmann, C., & Kleiter, G. D. (2013). Probability propagation in generalized inference forms. Studia Logica, 102, 913-929.
    • (2013) Studia Logica , vol.102 , pp. 913-929
    • Wallmann, C.1    Kleiter, G.D.2
  • 93
    • 84972263221 scopus 로고
    • A review of human linguistic probability processing: General principles and empirical evidence
    • Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1995). A review of human linguistic probability processing: General principles and empirical evidence. The Knowledge Engineering Review, 10, 43-62.
    • (1995) The Knowledge Engineering Review , vol.10 , pp. 43-62
    • Wallsten, T.S.1    Budescu, D.V.2
  • 96
    • 0002352339 scopus 로고
    • Dual processes in reasoning?
    • Wason, P. C., & Evans, J. St. B. T. (1975). Dual processes in reasoning? Cognition, 3, 141-154.
    • (1975) Cognition , vol.3 , pp. 141-154
    • Wason, P.C.1    Evans, J.S.B.T.2
  • 97
    • 0040684272 scopus 로고
    • A conflict between selecting and evaluating information in an inferential task
    • Wason, P. C., & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1970). A conflict between selecting and evaluating information in an inferential task. British Journal of Psychology, 61, 509-515.
    • (1970) British Journal of Psychology , vol.61 , pp. 509-515
    • Wason, P.C.1    Johnson-Laird, P.N.2
  • 100
    • 77950156143 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Semantic coherence and fallacies in estimating joint probabilities
    • Wolfe, C. R., & Reyna, V. F. (2010). Semantic coherence and fallacies in estimating joint probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 23, 203-223.
    • (2010) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.23 , pp. 203-223
    • Wolfe, C.R.1    Reyna, V.F.2
  • 101
  • 102
    • 34249713254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential moral stigma and reactions to sexually transmitted diseases: Evidence for a disjunction fallacy
    • Young, S. A., Nussbaum, A. D., & Monin, B. (2007). Potential moral stigma and reactions to sexually transmitted diseases: Evidence for a disjunction fallacy. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 33, 789-799.
    • (2007) Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin , vol.33 , pp. 789-799
    • Young, S.A.1    Nussbaum, A.D.2    Monin, B.3
  • 103
    • 70349974973 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the provenance of judgments of conditional probability
    • Zhao, J., Shah, A., & Osherson, D. (2009). On the provenance of judgments of conditional probability. Cognition, 113, 26-36.
    • (2009) Cognition , vol.113 , pp. 26-36
    • Zhao, J.1    Shah, A.2    Osherson, D.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.