The probabilities of conditionals revisited

Cognitive Science

Volumn 37, Issue 4, 2013, Pages 711-730

  Douven, Igor ^a   Verbrugge, Sara ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GRONINGEN   (Netherlands)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LEUVEN   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Conditionals; Probability; Semantics; Triviality arguments

Indexed keywords

EID: 84877321990     PISSN: 03640213     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/cogs.12025     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Adams, E. W. (1975). The logic of conditionals. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Reidel.
2. Adams, E. W. (1998). A primer of probability logic. Stanford, CA: CSLI Publications.
3. Barrouillet, P., & Lecas, J. F. (1999). Mental models in conditional reasoning and working memory. Thinking and Reasoning, 5(4), 289-302.
4. Bennett, J. (2003). A philosophical guide to conditionals. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press.
5. Blackburn, S. (1986). How can we tell whether a commitment has a truth condition? In C. Travis (Ed.), Meaning and interpretation (pp. 201-232). Oxford, UK: Blackwell.
6. Corner, A., Hahn, U., & Oaksford, M. (2011). The psychological mechanism of the slippery slope. Journal of Memory and Language, 64(2), 133-152.
7. de Finetti, B. (1937/1964). Foresight: Its logical laws, its subjective sources. In H. Kyburg & H. E. Smokler (Eds.), Studies in subjective probability (pp. 55-118). New York: Wiley.
8. Dietz, R., & Douven, I. (2010). Adams' thesis, Ramsey's test, and left-nested conditionals. Review of Symbolic Logic, 3(3), 467-484.
9. Douven, I. (1999). Inference to the best explanation made coherent. Philosophy of Science, 66(Proceedings), S424-S435.
10. Douven, I. (2008). Underdetermination. In S. Psillos & M. Curd (Eds.), The Routledge companion to the philosophy of science (pp. 292-301). London: Routledge.
11. Douven, I. (2011). Indicative conditionals. In L. Horsten & R. Pettigrew (Eds.), A companion to philosophical logic (pp. 383-405). London: Continuum Press.
12. Douven, I. (in press). The epistemology of conditionals. Oxford Studies in Epistemology.
13. Douven, I., & Dietz, R. (2011). A puzzle about Stalnaker's hypothesis. Topoi, 30(1), 31-37.
14. Douven, I., & Verbrugge, S. (2010). The Adams family. Cognition, 117(3), 302-318.
15. Edgington, D. (1995). On conditionals. Mind, 104(414), 235-329.
16. Edgington, D. (1997). Commentary. In M. Woods (Ed.), Conditionals, edited by D. Wiggins (pp. 95-137). Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press.
17. Égré, P., & Cozic, M. (2011). If-clauses and probability operators. Topoi, 30(1), 17-29.
18. Evans, J. St. B. T., Handley, S. J., Neilens, H., Bacon, A. M., & Over, D. E. (2010). The influence of cognitive ability and instructional set on causal conditional inference. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 63(5), 892-909.
19. Evans, J. St. B. T., Handley, S. J., Neilens, H., & Over, D. E. (2007). Thinking about conditionals: A study of individual differences. Memory and Cognition, 35(7), 1759-1771.
20. Evans, J. St. B. T., Handley, S. J., & Over, D. E. (2003). Conditionals and conditional probability. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 29(2), 321-355.
21. Evans, J. St. B. T., Neilens, H., Handley, S., & Over, D. E. (2008). When can we say 'if'? Cognition, 108(1), 100-116.
22. Evans, J. St. B. T., Newstead, S., & Byrne, R. M. J. (1993). Human reasoning: The psychology of deduction. Hove: Erlbaum.
23. Evans, J. St. B. T., & Over, D. E. (1996). Rationality and reasoning. Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
24. Evans, J. St. B. T., & Over, D. E. (2004). If. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
25. Gibbard, A. (1981). Two recent theories of conditionals. In W. L. Harper, R. Stalnaker, & G. Pearce (Eds.), Ifs (pp. 211-247). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Reidel.
26. Gilio, A., & Over, D. E. (2012). The psychology of inferring conditionals from disjunctions: A probabilistic study. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 56(2), 118-131.
27. Hadjichristidis, C., Stevenson, R. J., Over, D. E., Sloman, S. A., Evans, J. St. B. T., & Feeney, A. (2001). On the evaluation of 'if p then q' conditionals. In J. D. Moore & K. Stenning (Eds.), Proceedings of the 23rd annual meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 381-386).
28. Jeffrey, R. (2004). Subjective probability: the real thing. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
29. Kyburg, H. (1961). Probability and the logic of rational belief. Middletown, CT: Wesleyan University Press.
30. Lecas, J. F., & Barrouillet, P. (1999). Understanding conditional rules in childhood and adolescence: A mental models approach. Current Psychology of Cognition, 18, 363-396.
31. Lewis, D. K. (1976). Probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities. Philosophical Review 85 (3), 297-315. (Reprinted with postscript in F. Jackson (Ed.), Conditionals (pp. 76-101). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1991. The page reference is to the reprint.)
32. MacFarlane, J. (2012). Relativism. In D. Graff Fara & G. Russell (Eds.), The Routledge companion to the philosophy of language. New York: Routledge.
33. McGee, V. (1985). A counterexample to modus ponens. Journal of Philosophy, 82(9), 462-471.
34. McGee, V. (1989). Conditional probabilities and compounds of conditionals. Philosophical Review, 98(4), 485-541.
35. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2003). Conditional probability and the cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Mind and Language, 18(4), 359-379.
36. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2007). Bayesian rationality. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
37. Oaksford, M., Chater, N., & Larkin, J. (2000). Probabilities and polarity biases in conditional inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 26(4), 883-899.
38. Oberauer, K., Geiger, S. M., Fischer, K., & Weidenfeld, A. (2007). Two meanings of 'if'? Individual differences in the interpretation of conditionals. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 60(6), 790-819.
39. Oberauer, K., Weidenfeld, A., & Fischer, K. (2007). What makes us believe a conditional? The roles of covariation and causality. Thinking and Reasoning, 13(4), 340-369.
40. Oberauer, K., & Wilhelm, O. (2003). The meaning(s) of conditionals: Conditional probabilities, mental models and personal utilities. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 29(4), 680-693.
41. Oddie, G. (2007). Truthlikeness. The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy (Fall 2008 Edition). Available at: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/truthlikeness/.Accessed June 2, 2012.
42. Over, D. E., & Evans, J. St. B. T. (2003). The probability of conditionals: The psychological evidence. Mind and Language, 18(4), 340-358.
43. Over, D. E., Hadjichristidis, C., Evans, J. St. B. T., Handley, S. J., & Sloman, S. A. (2007). The probability of causal conditionals. Cognitive Psychology, 54(1), 62-97.
44. Pfeifer, N., & Kleiter, G. D. (2010). The conditional in mental probability logic. In M. Oaksford & N. Chater (Eds.), Cognition and conditionals (pp. 153-173). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
45. Politzer, G., Over, D. E., & Baratgin, J. (2010). Betting on conditionals. Thinking and Reasoning, 16(3), 172-197.
46. Ramsey, F. P. (1926/1990). Truth and probability. In D. H. Mellor (Ed.), Philosophical papers (pp. 52-94). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
47. Ramsey, F. P. (1929/1990). General propositions and causality. In D. H. Mellor (Ed.), Philosophical papers (pp. 145-163). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
48. Stalnaker, R. (1968). A theory of conditionals. In N. Rescher (Ed.), Studies in logical theory (pp. 98-112). Oxford, UK: Blackwell.
49. Stalnaker, R. (1970). Probability and conditionals. Philosophy of Science, 37(1), 64-80.
50. Stalnaker, R., & Jeffrey, R. (1994). Conditionals as random variables. In E. Eells & B. Skyrms (Eds.), Probability and conditionals (pp. 31-46). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
51. van Fraassen, B. C. (1976). Probabilities of conditionals. In W. L. Harper & C. A. Hooker (Eds.), Foundations of probability theory, statistical inference, and statistical theories of science (vol. 1, pp. 261-301). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Reidel.
52. von Fintel, K. (2011). Conditionals. In K. von Heusinger, C. Maienborn, & P. Portner (Eds.), Semantics: An international handbook of meaning (pp. 1515-1538). Berlin: de Gruyter.
53. Weidenfeld, A., Oberauer, K., & Horning, R. (2005). Causal and non-causal conditionals: An integrated model of interpretation and reasoning. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 58, 1479-1513.
54. Zhao, J., Shah, A., & Osherson, D. (2009). On the provenance of judgments of conditional probability. Cognition, 113(1), 26-36.