Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty

Cognition

Volumn 58, Issue 1, 1996, Pages 1-73

  Cosmides, Leda ^a   Tooby, John ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0042123195     PISSN: 00100277     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8     Document Type: Article

References (86)

1. Alba, J.W., Chromiak, W., Hasher, L., & Attig, M.S. (1980). Automatic encoding of category size information. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 370-378.
2. Astington, J.W. Harris, P.L., & Olson, D.R. (eds.) (1988). Developing theories of mind. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
3. Atran, S. (1990). The cognitive foundations of natural history. New York: Cambridge University Press.
4. Attig, M., & Hasher, L. (1980). The processing of frequency of occurrence information by adults. Journal of Gerontology, 35, 66-69.
5. Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychologica, 44, 211-233.
6. Baron-Cohen, S. (1994). Mindblindness on autism and theory of mind: An essay. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
7. Birnbaum, M.H. (1983). Base rates in Bayesian inference: signal detection analysis of the cab problem. American Journal of Psychology, 96, 8594.
8. Bizzi, E., Mussa-Ivaldi, F., & Giszter, S. (1991). Computations underlying the execution of movement: a biological perspective. Science, 253, 287-291.
9. Brown, R. (1986) Social psychology (2nd ed.) New York: Free Press.
10. Carey, S. (1985). Conceptual change in childhood. Cambridge. MA: MIT Press.
11. Carey, S., & Gelman, R. (Eds.) (1991). The epigenesis of mind: Essays on biology and cognition. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
12. Casscells, W., Schoenberger, A., & Graboys, T.B. (1978). Interpretation by physicians of clinical laboratory results. New England Journal of Medicine, 299, 999-1001.
13. Cohen, L.J. (1979). On the psychology of prediction: whose is the fallacy? Cognition, 7, 385-407.
14. Cohen, L.J. (1988). The role of evidential weight in criminal proof. In P. Tillers & E.D. Green (Eds.). Probability and inference in the law of evidence. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
15. Cohen, L.J. (1989). An introduction to the philosophy of induction and probabiility. Oxford: Oxford University Press
16. Cook, E.W., III, Hodes, R.L., & Lang, P.J. (1986). Preparedness and phobia: effects of stimulus content on human visceral learning. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 95, 195-207.
17. Cook, M., Mineka, S., Wolkenstein, B., & Laitsch, K. (1985). Observational conditioning of snake fear in unrelated rhesus monkeys. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 94, 591-610.
18. Cosmides, L. (1989) The logic of social exchange: has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Studies with the Wason selection task. Cognition, 31, 187-276.
19. Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1987). From evolution to behavior: evolutionary psychology as the missing link. In J. Dupre (Ed.), The latest on the best: Essays on evolution and optimality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
20. Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1989). Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture, Part II. Case study: A computational theory of social exchange. Ethology and Sociobiology, 10, 51-97.
21. Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1994). Origins of domain specificity: the evolution of functional organization. In L. Hirschfeld & S. Gelman (Eds.), Mapping the mind: Domain-specificity in cognition and culture. New York: Cambridge University Press.
22. Daston, L. (1980). Probabilistic expectation and rationality in classical probability theory. Historia Mathematica, 7, 234-260.
23. Daston, L. (1988). Classical probability in the enlightenment. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
24. Eddy, D.M. (1982). Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: problems and opportunities. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
25. Fieder, K. (1988). The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors. Psychological Research, 50, 123-129.
26. Fisher, R.A. (1951). The design of experiments (6th ed.). New York: Hafner.
27. Freyd, J.J. (1987). Dynamic mental representations. Psychological Review, 94, 427-438.
28. Gallistel, C.R. (1990). The organization of learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
29. Garcia, J., & Koelling, R.A. (1966). Relations of cue to consequence in avoidance learning. Psychonomic Science, 4, 123-124.
30. Gelman, R. (1990). Structural constraints on cognitive development: introduction to a special issue of Cognitive Science. Cognitive Science, 14, 3-9.
31. Gelman, R. (1990b). First principles organize attention to and learning about relevant data: number and the animate-inaminate distinction as examples. Cognitive Science, 14, 79-106.
32. Gelman, S., & Markman, E. (1986). Categories and induction in young children. Cognition, 23, 183-208.
33. Gigerenzer, G. (1990). Strong AI and the problem of "second order" algorithms. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 13, 663-664.
34. Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: beyond heuristics and biases. European Review of Social Psychology, 2, 83-115.
35. Gigerenzer, G., Hell, W., & Blank, H. (1988). Presentation and content: the use of base rates as a continuous variable. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 14, 513-525.
36. Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbolting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikean theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506-528.
37. Gigerenzer, G., & Hug, K. (1992). Domain-specific reasoning: social contracts, cheating and erspective change. Cognition, 43, 127-171
38. Gigerenzer, G., & Murray, D. (1987). Cognition as intuitive statistics. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
39. Gigerenzer, G., Swijtink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J., & Kruger, L. (1989). The empire of chance: How probability changed science and everyday life. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
40. Hasher, L., & Chromiak, W. (1977). The processing of frequency information: an automatic mechanism? Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 16, 173-184.
41. Hasher, L., & Zacks, R.T. (1979). Automatic and effortful processes in memory. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 108, 356-388.
42. Hintzman, D.L., & Stern, L.D. (1978). Contextual variability and memory for frequency. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 539-549.
43. Hirschfeld, L., & Gelman, S. (Eds.) (1994). Mapping the mind: Domain specificity in cognition and culture. New York: Cambridge University Press.
44. Johnson-Laird, P.N. (1983). Mental models: Towards a cognitive science of language, inference and consciousness. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
45. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.) (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
46. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: a judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430-454.
47. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237-251.
48. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). On the study of statistical intuitions. Cognition, 11, 123-141.
49. Keil, F.C. (1989). Concepts, kinds, and cognitive development. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
50. Kolmogorov, A. (1950). Foundations of probability theory (N. Morrison, Trans.). New York: Chelsea.
51. Laplace, P.S. (1814/1951). A philosophical essay on probabilities. New York: Dover.
52. Leslie, A.M. (1987). Pretense and representation: the origins of "theory of mind". Psychological Review, 94, 412-426.
53. Leslie, A.M. (1988). The necessity of illusion: perception and thought in infancy. In L. Weiskrantz (Ed.), Thought without language (pp. 185-210). Oxford: Clarendon Press.
54. Marks, I.M. (1987). Fears, phobias, and rituals. New York: Oxford University Press.
55. Marr, D. (1982). Vision: A computational investigation into the human representation and processing of visual information. San Francisco: Freeman.
56. Maurer, A. (1965). What children fear. Journal of Genetic Psychology, 106, 265-277.
57. Maynard Smith, J. (1478). Optimization theory in evolution. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 9, 31-56.
58. McCauley, C., & Stitt, C.L. (1978). An individual and quantitative measure of stereotypes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 929-940.
59. Meehl, P., & Rosen, A. (1955). Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns, or cutting scores. Psychological Bulletin, 52, 194-216.
60. Nisbett, R.E., & Ross, L. (1980). Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
61. Pinker, S. (1984). Language learnability and language development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
62. Pinker, S., & Bloom, P. (1990). Natural language and natural selection. Behavioral and Brain Science, 13, 707-784.
63. Profet, M. (1988). The evolution of pregnancy sickness as protection to the embryo against Pleistocene teratogens. Evolutionary Theory, 8, 177-190.
64. Profet, M. (1992). Pregnancy sickness as adaptation: A deterrent to maternal ingestion of teratogens. In J. Barkow, L. Cosmides, & J. Tooby (Eds.). The adapted mind: Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture. New York: Oxford University Press.
65. Ramachadran, V.S. (1990). Visual perception in people and machines. In A. Blake & T. Troscianko (Eds.), AI and the eye. New York: Wiley.
66. Real, L.A. (1991). Animal choice behavior and the evolution of cognitive architecture. Science, 253, 980-986.
67. Real, L., & Caraco, T. (1986). Risk and foraging in stochastic environments: theory and evidence. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 17, 371-390.
68. Shepard, R.N. (1984). Ecological constraints on internal representation: resonant kinematics of perceiving, imagining, thinking, and dreaming. Psychological Review, 91, 417-447.
69. Shepard, R.N. (1987). Evolution of a mesh between principles of the mind and regularities of the world. In J. Dupre (Ed.), The latest on the best: Essays on evolution and optimality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
70. Shepard, R.N. (1992). The three-dimensionality of color: an evolutionary accommodation to an enduring property of the world? In J. Barkow, L. Cosmides, & J. Tooby (Eds.), The adapted mind: Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture. New York: Oxford University Press.
71. Shiffrar, M. & Freyd, J.J. (1990). Apparent motion of the human body. Psychological Science. 1, 257-264.
72. Simon, H.A. (1956). Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review, 63 129-138.
73. Spelke, E.S. (1988). The origins of physical knowledge. In L. Weiskrantz (Ed.), Thought without language (pp. 168-184). Oxford: Clarendon Press.
74. Spelke, E.S. (1990). Principles of object perception. Cognitive Science, 14, 29-56.
75. Sperber, D. (1985). Anthropology and psychology: towards an epidemiology of representations. Man (N.S.), 20, 73-89.
76. Staddon, J.E.R. (1988). Learning as inference In R.C. Bolles & M.D. Beecher (Eds.), Evolution and learning. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
77. Symons, D. (1987). If we're all Darwinians, what's the fuss about? In C.B. Crawford, M.F. Smith, & D.L. Krebs (Eds.), Sociobiology and psychology (pp. 121-146). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
78. Tooby, J., & Cosmides, L. (1990). The past explains the present: emotional adaptations and the structure of ancestral environments. Ethology and Sociobiology, 11, 375-424.
79. Tooby, J., & Cosmides, L. (1992a). The psychological foundations of culture. In J. Barkow, L. Cosmides, & J. Tooby (Eds.), The adapted mind: Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture. New York: Oxford University Press.
80. Tooby, J., & Cosmides, L. (1992b). Ecological rationality and the multimodular mind (Tech. Rep. No. 92-1). Santa Barbara: University of California, Center for Evolutionary Psychology.
81. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). The belief in the "law of small numbers". Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105-110.
82. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131.
83. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982). Evidential impact of base rates. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
84. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 293-315.
85. von Mises, R. (1957/1981). Probability, statistics and truth (2nd rev. English ed.). New York: Dover.
86. Zacks, R.T., Hasher, L., & Sanft, H. (1982). Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 8, 106-116.