Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

Geoscientific Model Development

Volumn 10, Issue 6, 2017, Pages 2247-2302

  Matthes, Katja ^a,b   Funke, Bernd ^c   Andersson, Monika E ^r   Barnard, Luke ^d   Beer, Jürg ^e   Charbonneau, Paul ^f   Clilverd, Mark A ^g   Dudok De Wit, Thierry ^h   Haberreiter, Margit ⁱ   Hendry, Aaron ⁿ   Jackman, Charles H ^j   Kretzschmar, Matthieu ^h   Kruschke, Tim ^a   Kunze, Markus ^k   Langematz, Ulrike ^k   Marsh, Daniel R ^s   Maycock, Amanda C ^l   Misios, Stergios ^m   Rodger, Craig J ⁿ   Scaife, Adam A ^o   Seppälä, Annika ^r   Shangguan, Ming ^a   Sinnhuber, Miriam ^p   Tourpali, Kleareti ^m   Usoskin, Ilya ^q   Van De Kamp, Max ^r   Verronen, Pekka T ^r   Versick, Stefan ^p   more..

^a GEOMAR HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH KIEL   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KIEL   (Germany)

^c INSTITUTO DE ASTROFÍSICA DE ANDALUCÍA CSIC   (Spain)

^d UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^e SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF AQUATIC SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Switzerland)

^f UNIVERSITÉ DE MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

^g BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY   (United Kingdom)

^h UNIVERSITÉ D'ORLÉANS   (France)

ⁱ WORLD RADIATION CENTER   (Switzerland)

^j NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER   (United States)

^k FREIE UNIVERSITÄT BERLIN   (Germany)

^l UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^m ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY OF THESSALONIKI   (Greece)

ⁿ UNIVERSITY OF OTAGO   (New Zealand)

^o MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^p KARLSRUHE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (Germany)

^q UNIVERSITY OF OULU   (Finland)

^r FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Finland)

^s NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; CMIP; DATA SET; GEOMAGNETISM; INDEX METHOD; IONIZATION; IRRADIANCE; OZONE; PARTICLE MOTION; PHOTOCHEMISTRY; RADIATIVE FORCING; RADIATIVE TRANSFER; SHORTWAVE RADIATION; SOLAR ACTIVITY; SOLAR CYCLE; STRATOSPHERE; TIME SERIES; WAVELENGTH;

EID: 85021217595     PISSN: 1991959X     EISSN: 19919603     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017     Document Type: Article

References (263)

1. Abreu, J. A., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Tobias, S. M., and Weiss, N. O.: For how long will the current grand maximum of solar activity persist?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 20109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035442, 2008.
2. Alley, R. B., Berntsen, T., and Bindoff, N. L.: Climate Change 2007-The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
3. Amblard, P., Moussaoui, S., Dudok de Wit, T., Aboudarham, J., Kretzschmar, M., Lilensten, J., and Auchère, F.: The EUV Sun as the superposition of elementary Suns, Astron. Astrophys., 487, L13-L16, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:200809588, 2008.
4. Andersson, M. E., Verronen, P. T., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Seppälä, A.: Missing driver in the Sun-Earth connection from energetic electron precipitation impacts mesospheric ozone, Nature Commun., 5, 5197, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6197, 2014a.
5. Andersson, M. E., Verronen, P. T., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Wang, S.: Longitudinal hotspots in the mesospheric OH variations due to energetic electron precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1095-1105, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1095-2014, 2014b.
6. Anet, J. G., Rozanov, E. V., Muthers, S., Peter, T., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Beer, J., Shapiro, A. I., Raible, C. C., Steinhilber, F., and Schmutz, W. K.: Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4420-4425, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50806, 2013.
7. Aubert, J.: Geomagnetic forecasts driven by thermal wind dynamics in the Earth's core, Geophys. J. Int., 203, 1738-1751, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv394, 2015.
8. Austin, J., Tourpali, K., Rozanov, E., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Bodeker, G., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Deushi, M., Fomichev, V. I., Giorgetta, M. A., Gray, L., Kodera, K., Lott, F., Manzini, E., Marsh, D., Matthes, K., Nagashima, T., Shibata, K., Stolarski, R. S., Struthers, H., and Tian, W.: Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of the solar cycle in ozone and temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D11306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009391, 2008.
9. Ball, W. T., Unruh, Y. C., Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S., Wenzler, T., Mortlock, D. J., and Jaffe, A. H.: Reconstruction of total solar irradiance 1974-2009, Astron. Astrophys., 541, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201118702, 2012.
10. Ball, W. T., Haigh, J. D., Rozanov, E. V., Kuchar, A., Sukhodolov, T., Tummon, F., Shapiro, A. V., and Schmutz, W.: High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations, Nat. Geosci., 9, 206-209, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2640, 2016.
11. Barnard, L., Lockwood, M., Hapgood, M. A., Owens, M. J., Davis, C. J., and Steinhilber, F.: Predicting space climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048489, 2011.
12. Bartels, J.: The standardized index, Ks, and the planetary index, Kp, IATME Bulletin, 12b, 97 pp., 1949.
13. x produced by low energy electrons, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2729-2740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-2729-2009, 2009.
14. x enhancements and polar surface air temperature variability in a chemistry climate model: modulation of the NAM index, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4521-4531, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4521-2011, 2011.
15. Beer, J., McCracken, K., and von Steiger, R.: Cosmogenic Radionuclides, Springer Verlag, Berlin, 2012.
16. Bolduc, C., Charbonneau, P., Barnabé, R., and Bourqui, M. S.: A Reconstruction of Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance During the Maunder Minimum, Sol. Phys., 289, 2891-2906, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0503-0, 2014.
17. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., and Ljung, G. M.: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Wiley, 5th Edn., 2015.
18. Brockwell, P. J. and Davis, R. A.: Introduction to time series and forecasting, Springer Texts in Statistics, Springer, Berlin, 2nd Edn., 2010.
19. Bushby, P. J.: Zonal flows and grand minima in a solar dynamo model, Monthly Not. Royal Astron. Soc., 371, 772-780, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2006.10706.x, 2006.
20. Caballero-Lopez, R. A. and Moraal, H.: Limitations of the force field equation to describe cosmic ray modulation, J. Geophys. Res., 109, a01101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JA010098,2004.
21. Calisto, M., Usoskin, I., Rozanov, E., and Peter, T.: Influence of Galactic Cosmic Rays on atmospheric composition and dynamics, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4547-4556, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4547-2011, 2011.
22. Callis, L. B., Boughner, R. E., Baker, D. N., Mewaldt, R. A., Bernard Blake, J., Selesnick, R. S., Cummings, J. R., Natarajan, M., Mason, G. M., and Mazur, J. E.: Precipitating electrons: Evidence for effects on mesospheric odd nitrogen, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1901-1904, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL01787, 1996.
23. Cameron, R. H., Dasi-Espuig, M., Jiang, J., Işik, E., Schmitt, D., and Schüssler, M.: Limits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equatorial flux plumes, Astron. Astrophys., 557, A141, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201321981, 2013.
24. Charbonneau, P.: Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle, Living Reviews in Sol. Phys., 7, 3 pp., https://doi.org/10.12942/lrsp-2010-3, 2010.
25. Charbonneau, P.: Solar Dynamo Theory, Annu. Rev. Astron. Astr., 52, 251-290, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-astro-081913-040012, 2014.
26. Chiodo, G., Calvo, N., Marsh, D. R., and Garcia-Herrera, R.: The 11 year solar cycle signal in transient simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D06109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016393, 2012.
27. Chiodo, G., Garcia-Herrera, R., Calvo, N., Vaquero, J. M., Añel, J. A., Barriopedro, D., and Matthes, K.: The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 034015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015, 2016.
28. Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Lamarque, J. F., Randel, W. J., Stevenson, D. S., Wu, F., Bodeker, G. E., Shepherd, T. G., Shindell, D. T., andWaugh, D.W.: Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11267-11292, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-11267-2011, 2011.
29. Clette, F., Svalgaard, L., Vaquero, J. M., and Cliver, E. W.: Revisiting the Sunspot Number, Space Sci. Rev., 186, 35-103, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-014-0074-2, 2014.
30. Cliver, E. W., Boriakoff, V., and Bounar, K. H.: Geomagnetic activity and the solar wind during the Maunder Minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 897-900, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL00500, 1998.
31. Coddington, O., Lean, J. L., Pilewskie, P., Snow, M., and Lindholm, D.: A Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 1265, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00265.1, 2016.
32. Codrescu, M. V., Fuller-Rowell, T. J., Roble, R. G., and Evans, D. S.: Medium energy particle precipitation influences on the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 19977-19987, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JA01728, 1997.
33. Collins, W. D.: A global signature of enhanced shortwave absorption by clouds, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 31669-31679, 1998.
34. Cooke, D. J., Humble, J. E., Shea, M. A., Smart, D. F., Lund, N., Rasmussen, I. L., Byrnak, B., Goret, P., and Petrou, N.: On cosmic-ray cut-off terminology, Il Nuovo Cimento C, 14, 213-234, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02509357, 1991.
35. Damiani, A., Storini, M., Laurenza, M., and Rafanelli, C.: Solar particle effects on minor components of the Polar atmosphere, Ann. Geophys., 26, 361-370, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-26-361-2008, 2008.
36. Damiani, A., Funke, B., Marsh, D. R., López-Puertas, M., Santee, M. L., Froidevaux, L., Wang, S., Jackman, C. H., von Clarmann, T., Gardini, A., Cordero, R. R., and Storini, M.: Impact of January 2005 solar proton events on chlorine species, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 4159-4179, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-4159-2012, 2012.
37. Damiani, A., Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Santee, M. L., Cordero, R. R., Laurenza, M., and Watanabe, S.: Energetic particle precipitation: a major driver of the ozone budget in the Antarctic upper stratosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3554-3562, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068279, 2016.
38. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hølm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
39. Desorgher, L., Flückiger, E. O., Gurtner, M., Moser, M. R., and Bütikofer, R.: Atmocosmics: a Geant 4 Code for Computing the Interaction of Cosmic Rays with the Earth's Atmosphere, Int. J. Modern Phys. A, 20, 6802-6804, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217751X05030132, 2005.
40. Dietmüller, S., Jöckel, P., Tost, H., Kunze, M., Gellhorn, C., Brinkop, S., Frömming, C., Ponater, M., Steil, B., Lauer, A., and Hendricks, J.: A new radiation infrastructure for the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy, based on version 2.51), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2209-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, 2016.
41. Dudok de Wit, T.: A method for filling gaps in solar irradiance and solar proxy data, Astron. Astrophys., 533, A29, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201117024, 2011.
42. Dudok de Wit, T., Kopp, G., Fröhlich, C., and Schöll, M.: Methodology to create a new Total Solar Irradiance record: Making a composite out of multiple data records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 1196-1203, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071866, 2017.
43. Dunne, E. M., Gordon, H., Kürten, A., Almeida, J., Duplissy, J., Williamson, C., Ortega, I. K., Pringle, K. J., Adamov, A., Baltensperger, U., Barmet, P., Benduhn, F., Bianchi, F., Breitenlechner, M., Clarke, A., Curtius, J., Dommen, J., Donahue, N. M., Ehrhart, S., Flagan, R. C., Franchin, A., Guida, R., Hakala, J., Hansel, A., Heinritzi, M., Jokinen, T., Kangasluoma, J., Kirkby, J., Kulmala, M., Kupc, A., Lawler, M. J., Lehtipalo, K., Makhmutov, V., Mann, G., Mathot, S., Merikanto, J., Miettinen, P., Nenes, A., Onnela, A., Rap, A., Reddington, C. L. S., Riccobono, F., Richards, N. A. D., Rissanen, M. P., Rondo, L., Sarnela, N., Schobesberger, S., Sengupta, K., Simon, M., Sipilä, M., Smith, J. N., Stozkhov, Y., Tomé, A., Tröstl, J., Wagner, P. E., Wimmer, D., Winkler, P. M., Worsnop, D. R., and Carslaw, K. S.: Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements, Science, 354, 1119-1124, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf2649, 2016.
44. Ermolli, I., Matthes, K., Dudok deWit, T., Krivova, N. A., Tourpali, K.,Weber, M., Unruh, Y. C., Gray, L., Langematz, U., Pilewskie, P., Rozanov, E., Schmutz, W., Shapiro, A., Solanki, S. K., and Woods, T. N.: Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945-3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, 2013.
45. Evans, D. and Greer, M.: Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite Space Environment Monitor-2: Instrument Descriptions and Archive Data Documentation, NOAA Technical Memorandum OAR version 1.4 SEC-93, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Laboratories, Space Environment Center, Boulder, Colorado, 2000.
46. Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937-1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
47. Fang, X., Randall, C., Lummerzheim, D., Solomon, S., Mills, M., Marsh, D., Jackman, C., Wang, W., and Lu, G.: Electron impact ionization: A new parameterization for 100 eV to 1 MeV electrons, J. Geophys. Res., 113, A09311, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JA013384, 2008.
48. Fang, X., Randall, C. E., Lummerzheim, D., Wang, W., Lu, G., Solomon, S. C., and Frahm, R. A.: Parameterization of monoenergetic electron impact ionization, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045406, 2010.
49. Feulner, G. and Rahmstorf, S.: On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042710, 2010.
50. Fligge, M., Solanki, S. K., and Unruh, Y. C.: Modelling irradiance variations from the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field, Astron. Astrophys., 353, 380-388, 2000.
51. Forster, P. M., Fomichev, V. I., Rozanov, E., Cagnazzo, C., Jonsson, A. I., Langematz, U., Fomin, B., Iacono, M. J., Mayer, B., Mlawer, E., Myhre, G., Portmann, R. W., Akiyoshi, H., Falaleeva, V., Gillett, N., Karpechko, A., Li, J., Lemennais, P., Morgenstern, O., Oberländer, S., Sigmond, M., and Shibata, K.: Evaluation of radiation scheme performance within chemistry climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 116, 2156-2202, 2011.
52. Fouquart, Y. and Bonnel, B.: Computations of solar heating of the Earth's atmosphere: A new parameterization, Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 53, 35-62, 1980.
53. Frahm, R. A.,Winningham, J. D., Sharber, J. R., Link, R., Crowley, G., Gaines, E. E., Chenette, D. L., Anderson, B. J., and Potemra, T. A.: The diffuse aurora: A significant source of ionization in the middle atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 28203-28214, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD02430, 1997.
54. Frederick, J. E.: Solar corpuscular emission and neutral chemistry in the Earth's middle atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 81, 3179-3186, https://doi.org/10.1029/JA081i019p03179, 1976.
55. x in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere in the polar spring/summer after the solar proton event in October-November 2003, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2531-2539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2531-2013, 2013.
56. x into the polar stratosphere and lower mesosphere during the Antarctic 2003 and Arctic 2002/2003 winters, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D24308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006463, 2005.
57. Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Garcia-Comas, M., Stiller, G. P., von Clarmann, T., and Glatthor, N.: Mesospheric N2O enhancements as observed by MIPAS on Envisat during the polar winters in 2002-2004, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5787-5800, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-5787-2008, 2008.
58. Funke, B., Baumgaertner, A., Calisto, M., Egorova, T., Jackman, C. H., Kieser, J., Krivolutsky, A., López-Puertas, M., Marsh, D. R., Reddmann, T., Rozanov, E., Salmi, S.-M., Sinnhuber, M., Stiller, G. P., Verronen, P. T., Versick, S., von Clarmann, T., Vyushkova, T. Y., Wieters, N., and Wissing, J. M.: Composition changes after the "Halloween" solar proton event: the High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MIPAS data intercomparison study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 9089-9139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-9089-2011, 2011.
59. Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Stiller, G. P., and von Clarmann, T.: Mesospheric and stratospheric NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation during 2002-2012, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 4429-4446, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021404, 2014a.
60. Funke, B., Puertas, M. L., Holt, L., Randall, C. E., Stiller, G. P., and von Clarmann, T.: Hemispheric distributions and interannual variability of NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation in 2002-2012, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 13565-13582, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022423, 2014b.
61. Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Stiller, G. P., Versick, S., and von Clarmann, T.: A semi-empirical model for mesospheric and stratospheric NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8667-8693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8667-2016, 2016.
62. Fytterer, T., Mlynczak, M. G., Nieder, H., Pérot, K., Sinnhuber, M., Stiller, G., and Urban, J.: Energetic particle induced intraseasonal variability of ozone inside the Antarctic polar vortex observed in satellite data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3327-3338, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3327-2015, 2015a.
63. Fytterer, T., Santee, M. L., Sinnhuber, M., andWang, S.: The 27day solar rotational effect on mesospheric nighttime OH and O3 observations induced by geomagnetic activity, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 7926-7936, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021183, 2015b.
64. Giorgetta, M. A. and Bengtsson, L.: Potential role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange as found in water vapor in general circulation model experiments, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 6003-6019, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200112, 1999.
65. Gray, L., Scaife, A., Mitchell, D., Osprey, S., Ineson, S., Hardiman, S., Butchart, N., Knight, J., Sutton, R., and Kodera, K.: A Lagged Response to the 11-year Solar Cycle in Observed Winter Atlantic/European Weather Patterns, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 1-16, 2013.
66. Gray, L. J., Rumbold, S., and Shine, K. P.: Stratospheric temperatures and radiative forcing response to 11-year solar cycle changes in irradiance and ozone, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2402-2417, 2009.
67. Gray, L. J., Beer, J., Geller, M., Haigh, J. D., Lockwood, M., Matthes, K., Cubasch, U., Fleitmann, D., Harrison, G., Hood, L., Luterbacher, J., Meehl, G. A., Shindell, D., van Geel, B., and White,W.: Solar influences on climate, Rev. Geophys., 48, 1-53, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000282, 2010.
68. Haberreiter, M., Schöll, M., Dudok de Wit, T., Kretzschmar, M., Misios, S., Tourpali, K., and Schmutz,W.:, A new observational solar irradiance composite, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 122, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023492, 2017.
69. Haigh, J.: The impact of solar variability on climate, Science, 272, 981-984, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.272.5264.981, 1996.
70. Haigh, J. D.: The Role of Stratospheric Ozone in Modulating the Solar Radiative Forcing of Climate, Nature, 370, 544-546, https://doi.org/10.1038/370544a0, 1994.
71. Harder, J. W., Lawrence, G., Fontenla, J., Rottman, G., and Woods, T.: The Spectral Irradiance Monitor: Scientific Requirements, Instrument Design, and Operation Modes, Sol. Phys., 230, 141-167, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-5007-5, 2005.
72. Harder, J. W., Fontenla, J. M., Pilewskie, P., Richard, E. C., and Woods, T. N.: Trends in solar spectral irradiance variability in the visible and infrared, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036797, 2009.
73. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., and Friedman, J.: The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Springer, New York, 2nd Edn., 2009.
74. Heath, D. F., Krueger, A. J., and Crutzen, P. J.: Solar proton event: influence on stratospheric ozone, Science, 197, 886-889, 1977.
75. Hegglin, M. I., Kinnison, D., Plummer, D., et al.: Historical and future ozone database (1850-2100) in support of CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., in preparation, 2017.
76. Hendrickx, K., Megner, L., Gumbel, J., Siskind, D. E., Orsolini, Y. J., Tyssøy, H. N., and Hervig, M.: Observation of 27 day solar cycles in the production and mesospheric descent of EPP-produced NO, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 8978-8988, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021441, 2015.
77. Holt, L. A., Randall, C. E., Peck, E. D., Marsh, D. R., Smith, A. K., and Lynn Harvey, V.: The influence of major sudden stratospheric warming and elevated stratopause events on the effects of energetic particle precipitation inWACCM, J. Geophys. Res., 11636-11646, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020294, 2013.
78. Hood, L. L., Misios, S., Mitchell, D. M., Rozanov, E., Gray, L. J., Tourpali, K., Matthes, K., Schmidt, H., Chiodo, G., Thiéblemont, R., Shindell, D., and Krivolutsky, A.: Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: The ozone response, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 2670-2689, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2553, 2015.
79. Horne, R., Lam, M., and Green, J.: Energetic electron precipitation from the outer radiation belt during ge omagnetic storms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040236, 2009.
80. Hoyt, D. V. and Schatten, K. H.: Group Sunspot Numbers: A New Solar Activity Reconstruction, Sol. Phys., 181, 491-491, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005056326158, 1998.
81. Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J. F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Long, M. C., Mahowald, N., Marsh, D. R., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P., Vavrus, S., Vertenstein, M., Bader, D., Collins, W. D., Hack, J. J., Kiehl, J., and Marshall, S.: The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1339-1360, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00121.1, 2013.
82. Inceoglu, F., Simoniello, R., Knudsen, M. F., Karoff, C., Olsen, J., and Turck-Chièze, S.: On the Current Solar Magnetic Activity in the Light of Its Behaviour During the Holocene, Sol. Phys., 291, 303-315, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-015-0805-x, 2016.
83. Ineson, S., Scaife, A. A., Knight, J. R., Manners, J. C., Dunstone, N. J., Gray, L. J., and Haigh, J. D.: Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nat. Geosci., 4, 753-757, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1282, 2011.
84. Ineson, S., Maycock, A. C., Gray, L. J., Scaife, A. A., Dunstone, N. J., Harder, J. W., Knight, J. R., Lockwood, M., Manners, J. C., and Wood, R. A.: Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum, Nature Communications, 6, 7535, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8535, 2015.
85. Jackman, C. H. and McPeters, R. D.: The Effect of solar proton events on ozone and other constituents, Solar Variability and its Effects on Climate, Geophys. Monogr., 141, 305-319, 2004.
86. Jackman, C. H., Frederick, J. E., and Stolarski, R. S.: Production of odd nitrogen in the stratosphere and mesosphere: An intercomparison of source strengths, J. Geophys. Res., 85, 7495-7505, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC085iC12p07495, 1980.
87. Jackman, C. H., Douglass, A. R., Rood, R. B., McPeters, R. D., and Meade, P. E.: Effect of solar proton events on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles as computed using a two-dimensional model, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 7417-7428, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD06p07417, 1990.
88. Jackman, C. H., Cerniglia, M. C., Nielsen, J. E., Allen, D. J., Zawodny, J. M., McPeters, R. D., Douglass, A. R., Rosenfield, J. E., and Rood, R. B.: Two-dimensional and three-dimensional model simulations, measurements, and interpretation of the influence of the October 1989 solar proton events on the middle atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 100, 11641-11660, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD00369, 1995.
89. Jackman, C. H., McPeters, R. D., Labow, G. J., Fleming, E. L., Praderas, C. J., and Russell, J. M.: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric effects due to the July 2000 solar proton event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2883-2886, 2001.
90. Jackman, C. H., DeLand, M. T., Labow, G. J., Fleming, E. L., Weisenstein, D. K., Ko, M. K. W., Sinnhuber, M., Anderson, J., and Russell, J. M.: The Influence of the Several Very Large Solar Proton Events in Years 2000-2003 on the Neutral Middle Atmosphere, Adv. Space Res., 35, 445-450, 2005a.
91. Jackman, C. H., DeLand, M. T., Labow, G. J., Fleming, E. L., Weisenstein, D. K., Ko, M. K. W., Sinnhuber, M., and Russell, J. M.: Neutral atmospheric influences of the solar proton events in October-November 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S27, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JA010888, 2005b.
92. Jackman, C. H., Marsh, D. R., Vitt, F. M., Garcia, R. R., Fleming, E. L., Labow, G. J., Randall, C. E., López-Puertas, M., Funke, B., von Clarmann, T., and Stiller, G. P.: Short-and medium-term atmospheric constituent effects of very large solar proton events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 765-785, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-765-2008, 2008.
93. Jackman, C. H., Marsh, D. R., Vitt, F. M., Roble, R. G., Randall, C. E., Bernath, P. F., Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Versick, S., Stiller, G. P., Tylka, A. J., and Fleming, E. L.: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric influence of the solar proton events and ground level enhancement in January 2005, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 6153-6166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-6153-2011, 2011.
94. Jackman, C. H., Randall, C. E., Harvey, V. L., Wang, S., Fleming, E. L., López-Puertas, M., Funke, B., and Bernath, P. F.: Middle atmospheric changes caused by the January and March 2012 solar proton events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1025-1038, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1025-2014, 2014.
95. Jackman, C. H., Marsh, D. R., Kinnison, D. E., Mertens, C. J., and Fleming, E. L.: Atmospheric changes caused by galactic cosmic rays over the period 1960-2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5853-5866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016, 2016.
96. Jackson, A., Jonkers, A. R. T., and Walker, M. R.: Four centuries of geomagnetic secular variation from historical records, Philos. T. R. Soc. Lond. A, 358, 957-990, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2000.0569, 2000.
97. Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010.
98. Jöckel, P., Tost, H., Pozzer, A., Kunze, M., Kirner, O., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., Brinkop, S., Cai, D. S., Dyroff, C., Eckstein, J., Frank, F., Garny, H., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Graf, P., Grewe, V., Kerkweg, A., Kern, B., Matthes, S., Mertens, M., Meul, S., Neumaier, M., Nützel, M., Oberländer-Hayn, S., Ruhnke, R., Runde, T., Sander, R., Scharffe, D., and Zahn, A.: Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1153-1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1153-2016, 2016.
99. Jones, A., Qin, G., Strong, K., Walker, K. A., McLinden, C. A., Toohey, M., Kerzenmacher, T., Bernath, P. F., and Boone, C. D.: A global inventory of stratospheric NOy from ACE-FTS, J. Geophys. Res., 116, d17304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015465,2011.
100. Jungclaus, J. H., Bard, E., Baroni, M., Braconnot, P., Cao, J., Chini, L. P., Egorova, T., Evans, M., González-Rouco, J. F., Goosse, H., Hurtt, G. C., Joos, F., Kaplan, J. O., Khodri, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Krivova, N., LeGrande, A. N., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Man, W., Meinshausen, M., Moberg, A., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Otto-Bliesner, B. I., Phipps, S. J., Pongratz, J., Rozanov, E., Schmidt, G. A., Schmidt, H., Schmutz, W., Schurer, A., Shapiro, A. I., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solanki, S. K., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Usoskin, I. G., Wagner, S., Wu, C.-Y., Yeo, K. L., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, Q., and Zorita, E.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 3: the Last Millennium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-278, in review, 2016.
101. Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Haywood, A. M., Jungclaus, J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Brierley, C., Crucifix, M., Dolan, A., Fernandez-Donado, L., Fischer, H., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Peltier, W. R., Phipps, S. J., Roche, D. M., Schmidt, G. A., Tarasov, L., Valdes, P. J., Zhang, Q., and Zhou, T.: PMIP4-CMIP6: the contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-106, in review, 2016.
102. Kinnison, D. E., Brasseur, G. P., Walters, S., Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Sassi, F., Harvey, V. L., Randall, C. E., Emmons, L., Lamarque, J. F., Hess, P., Orlando, J. J., Tie, X. X., Randel, W., Pan, L. L., Gettelman, A., Granier, C., Diehl, T., Niemeier, U., and Simmons, A. J.: Sensitivity of chemical tracers to meteorological parameters in the MOZART-3 chemical transport model, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D20302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007879, 2007.
103. Kodera, K.: Solar cycle modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation: Implication in the spatial structure of the NAO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 59-1-59-4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014557, 2002.
104. Kopp, G. and Lean, J. L.: A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L01706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045777, 2011.
105. Kopp, G., Lawrence, G., and Rottman, G.: The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Science Results, Sol. Phys., 230, 129-139, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-7433-9, 2005.
106. Kopp, G., Krivova, N., Lean, J., and Wu, C. J.: The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions, Sol. Phys., 291, 2951-2965, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-016-0853-x, 2016.
107. Kremliovsky, M.: Limits of Predictability of Solar Activity, Solar Phys., 159, 371-380, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00686538, 1995.
108. Krivolutsky, A., Bazilevskaya, G., Vyushkova, T., and Knyazeva, G.: Influence of cosmic rays on chemical composition of the atmosphere: data analysis and photochemical modelling, Phys. Chem. Earth, Parts A/B/C, 27, 471-476, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-7065(02)00028-1, 2002.
109. Krivolutsky, A. A., Kuminov, A. A., Kukoleva, A. A., Repnev, A. I., Pereyaslova, N. K., and Nazarova, M. N.: Solar proton activity during cycle 23 and changes in the ozonosphere: Numerical simulation and analysis of observational data, Geomagn. Aeronomy, 48, 432-445, https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793208040038, 2008.
110. Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., Fligge, M., and Unruh, Y. C.: Reconstruction of solar irradiance variations in cycle 23: Is solar surface magnetism the cause?, Astron. Astrophys., 399, L1-L4, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20030029, 2003.
111. Krivova, N. A., Vieira, L. E. A., and Solanki, S. K.: Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 115, A12112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA015431, 2010.
112. Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., and Unruh, Y. C.: Towards a long-term record of solar total and spectral irradiance, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phy., 73, 223-234, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2009.11.013, 2011.
113. Kunze, M., Godolt, M., Langematz, U., Grenfell, J., Hamann-Reinus, A., and Rauer, H.: Investigating the early Earth faint young Sun problem with a general circulation model, Planet. Space Sci., 98, 77-92, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pss.2013.09.011, 2014.
114. Laken, B. A. and Čalogović, J.: Composite analysis with Monte Carlo methods: an example with cosmic rays and clouds, J. Space Weather Space Climate, 3, A29, https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2013051, 2013.
115. Lam, M. M., Horne, R. B., Meredith, N. P., Glauert, S. A., Moffat-Griffin, T., and Green, J. C.: Origin of energetic electron precipitation >30 keV into the atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 115, A00F08, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JA014619, 2010.
116. Langematz, U., Kubin, A., Brühl, C., Baumgaertner, A., Cubasch, U., and Spangehl, T.: Solar effects on chemistry and climate including ocean interactions in Climate And Weather of the Sun-Earth System (CAWSES): Highlights from a Priority Program, Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands,541-571, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4348-9, 2013.
117. Lean, J. L.: The Sun's Variable Radiation and Its Relevance For Earth, Annu. Rev. Astron. Astrophys., 35, 33-67, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.astro.35.1.33, 1997.
118. Lean, J. L.: Evolution of the Sun's spectral irradiance since the Maunder Minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2425-2428, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL000043, 2000.
119. Lean, J. L. and DeLand, M. T.: How Does the Sun's Spectrum Vary?, J. Climate, 25, 2555-2560, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLID-11-00571.1, 2012.
120. Lean, J. L. and Rind, D. H.: How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034864, 2008.
121. Lean, J. L. and Rind, D. H.: How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 15708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038932, 2009.
122. Lean, J. L., Cook, J., Marquette,W., and Johannesson, A.: Magnetic Sources of the Solar Irradiance Cycle, Astron. J., 492, 390-401, https://doi.org/10.1086/305015, 1998.
123. Lean, J. L., Woods, T. N., Eparvier, F. G., Meier, R. R., Strickland, D. J., Correira, J. T., and Evans, J. S.: Solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance: Present, past, and future, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 116, A01102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA015901, 2011.
124. Lilensten, J., Dudok de Wit, T., and Matthes, K. (Eds.): Earth's climate response to a changing Sun, EDP Sciences, Paris, 2015.
125. Ljung, L.: System Identification: Theory for the User, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 2nd Edn., 1997.
126. Lockwood, M., Harrison, R. G., Woollings, T., and Solanki, S.: Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 024001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001, 2010.
127. Lockwood, M., Barnard, L., Nevanlinna, H., Owens, M. J., Harrison, R. G., Rouillard, A. P., and Davis, C. J.: Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr-Part 1: A new geomagnetic data composite, Ann. Geophys., 31, 1957-1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1957-2013, 2013.
128. Lockwood, M., Nevanlinna, H., Barnard, L., Owens, M. J., Harrison, R. G., Rouillard, A. P., and Scott, C. J.: Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary con ditions over the past 167 yr-Part 4: Near-Earth solar wind speed, IMF, and open solar flux, Ann. Geophys., 32, 383-399, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-383-2014, 2014.
129. x Enhancement and Ozone Depletion in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres after the October-November 2003 Solar Proton Events, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S43, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011050, 2005a.
130. 2 Enhancements after the October-November 2003 Solar Proton Events, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S44, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011051, 2005b.
131. Maliniemi, V., Asikainen, T., and Mursula, K.: Spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures during different phases of the solar cycle, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 9752-9764, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021343, 2014.
132. Marsh, D. R., Solomon, S. C., and Reynolds, A. E.: Empirical model of nitric oxide in the lower thermosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 109, A07301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JA010199, 2004.
133. Marsh, D. R., Garcia, R. R., Kinnison, D. E., Boville, B. A., Sassi, F., Solomon, S. C., and Matthes, K.: Modeling the whole atmosphere response to solar cycle changes in radiative and geomagnetic forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D23306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008306, 2007.
134. Marsh, D. R., Mills, M. J., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J.-F., Calvo, N., and Polvani, L. M.: Climate Change from 1850 to 2005 Simulated in CESM1(WACCM), J. Climate, 26, 7372-7391, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00558.1, 2013.
135. Matthes, K., Kodera, K., Haigh, J., Shindell, D., Shibata, K., Langematz, U., Rozanov, E., and Kuroda, Y.: GRIPS solar experiments intercomparison project: Initial results, Pap. Meteoro. Geophys., 54, 71-90, 2003.
136. Matthes, K., Kuroda, Y., Kodera, K., and Langematz, U.: Transfer of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the troposphere: Northern winter, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006283, 2006.
137. Matthes, K., Marsh, D. R., Garcia, R. R., Kinnison, D. E., Sassi, F., and Walters, S.: Role of the QBO in modulating the influence of the 11 year solar cycle on the atmosphere using constant forcings, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013020, 2010.
138. Mayaud, P.: The aa indices: A 100-year series characterizing the magnetic activity, J. Geophys. Res., 77, 6870-6874, https://doi.org/10.1029/JA077i034p06870, 1972.
139. Mayaud, P.-N.: Derivation, Meaning, and Use of Geomagnetic Indices, Geophysical Monograph AGU,Washington DC, 22, 1980.
140. Maycock, A. C., Ineson, S., Gray, L. J., Scaife, A. A., Anstey, J. A., Lockwood, M., Butchart, N., Hardiman, S. C., Mitchell, D. M., and Osprey, S. M.: Possible impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 9043-9058, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022022, 2015.
141. Maycock, A. C., Matthes, K., Tegtmeier, S., Thiéblemont, R., and Hood, L.: The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone-Part 1: A comparison of recently updated satellite observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10021-10043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, 2016.
142. Maycock, A. C., Matthes, K., Tegtmeier, S., Schmidt, H., Thiéblemont, R., Hood, L., Bekki, S., Deushi, M., Jöckel, P., Kirner, O., Kunze, M., Marchand, M., Marsh, D. R., Michou, M., Revell, L. E., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Yamashita, Y., and Yoshida, K.: The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone. Part II: Analysis of global models, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-477, in review, 2017.
143. Mayer, B. and Kylling, A.: Technical note: The libRadtran software package for radiative transfer calculations-description and examples of use, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1855-1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-1855-2005, 2005.
144. McClintock, W. E., Rottman, G. J., and Woods, T. N.: Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment II (Solstice II): Instrument Concept and Design, Sol. Phys., 230, 225-258, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-7432-x, 2005.
145. McCracken, K. G., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., and Abreu, J.: A Phenomenological Study of the Cosmic Ray Variations over the Past 9400 Years, and Their Implications Regarding Solar Activity and the Solar Dynamo, Sol. Phys., 286, 609-627, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-013-0265-0, 2013.
146. McIlwain, C. E.: Coordinates for Mapping the Distribution of Magnetically Trapped Particles, J. Geophys. Res., 66, 3681-3691, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ066i011p03681, 1961.
147. McPeters, R. D.: A nitric oxide increase observed following the July 1982 solar proton event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 13, 667-670, https://doi.org/10.1029/GL013i007p00667, 1986.
148. McPeters, R. D. and Jackman, C. H.: The response of ozone to solar proton events during solar cycle 21: The observations, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 7945-7954, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD090iD05p07945, 1985.
149. McPeters, R. D., Jackman, C. H., and Stassinopoulos, E. G.: Observations of ozone depletion associated with solar proton events, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 12071-12081, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC086iC12p12071, 1981.
150. Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., and Marsh, D. R.: Could a future "Grand Solar Minimum" like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1789-1793, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50361, 2013.
151. Mewaldt, R. A., Cohen, C. M. S., Labrador, A. W., Leske, R. A., Mason, G. M., Desai, M. I., Looper, M. D., Mazur, J. E., Selesnick, R. S., and Haggerty, D. K.: Proton, helium and electron spectra during the large solar particle events of October-November 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011038, 2005.
152. Mironova, I. A., Aplin, K. L., Arnold, F., Bazilevskaya, G. A., Harrison, R. G., Krivolutsky, A. A., Nicoll, K. A., Rozanov, E. V., Turunen, E., and Usoskin, I. G.: Energetic Particle Influence on the Earth's Atmosphere, Space Sci. Rev., 194, 1-96, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-015-0185-4, 2015.
153. Misios, S., Mitchell, D. M., Gray, L. J., Tourpali, K., Matthes, K., Hood, L. L., Schmidt, H., Chiodo, G., Thiéblemont, R., Rozanov, E., and Krivolutsky, A.: Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 928-941, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2695, 2016.
154. Mitchell, D. M., Gray, L. J., Fujiwara, M., Hibino, T., Anstey, J., Harada, Y., Long, C., Misios, S., Stott, P. A., and Tan, D.: Signatures of naturally induced variability in the atmosphere using multiple reanalysis datasets., Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 2011-2031, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2492, 2015a.
155. Mitchell, D. M., Misios, S., Gray, L. J., Tourpali, K., Matthes, K., Hood, L. L., Schmidt, H., Chiodo, G., Thiéblemont, R., Rozanov, E., Shindell, D., and Krivolutsky, A.: Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the stratospheric pathway, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 2390-2403, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2530, 2015b.
156. Morley, S. K., Friedel, R. H. W., Cayton, T. E., and Noveroske, E.: A rapid, global and prolonged electron radiation belt dropout observed with the Global Positioning System constellation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042772, 2010.
157. Muñoz-Jaramillo, A., Dasi-Espuig, M., Balmaceda, L. A., and DeLuca, E. E.: Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies, Astrophys. J., 767, L25, https://doi.org/10.1088/2041-8205/767/2/L25, 2013.
158. Neal, J. J., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., Thomson, N. R., Raita, T., and Ulich, T.: Long-term determination of energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere from AARDDVARK subionospheric VLF observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 120, 2194-2211, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020689, 2015.
159. Neale, R. B., Richter, J., Park, S., Lauritzen, P. H., Vavrus, S. J., Rasch, P. J., and Zhang, M.: The Mean Climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in Forced SST and Fully Coupled Experiments, J. Climate, 26, 5150-5168, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00236.1, 2013.
160. Nevanlinna, H.: Results of the Helsinki magnetic observatory 1844-1912, Ann. Geophys., 22, 1691-1704, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-1691-2004, 2004.
161. x production due to energetic particle precipitation in the MLT region: Results from ion chemistry model studies, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 2137-2148, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019044, 2014.
162. Nissen, K. M., Matthes, K., Langematz, U., and Mayer, B.: Towards a better representation of the solar cycle in general circulation models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5391-5400, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5391-2007, 2007.
163. Passos, D., Charbonneau, P., and Beaudoin, P.: An Exploration of Non-kinematic Effects in Flux Transport Dynamos, Sol. Phys., 279, 1-22, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-012-9971-2, 2012.
164. Pesnell, W. D.: Solar Cycle Predictions, Sol. Phys., 281, 507-532, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-012-9997-5, 2012.
165. Petrovay, K.: Solar Cycle Prediction, Living Rev. Solar Phys., 7, https://doi.org/10.12942/lrsp-2010-6, 2010.
166. Picone, J. M., Hedin, A. E., Drob, D. P., and Aikin, A. C.: NRLMSISE-00 empirical model of the atmosphere: Statistical comparisons and scientific issues, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 107, 1468, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JA009430, 2002.
167. Porter, H. S., Jackman, C. H., and Green, A. E. S.: Efficiencies for production of atomic nitrogen and oxygen by relativistic proton impact in air, J. Chem. Phys., 65, 154-167, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.432812, 1976.
168. Prša, A., Harmanec, P., Torres, G., Mamajek, E., Asplund, M., Capitaine, N., Christensen-Dalsgaard, J., Depagne, É., Haberreiter, M., Hekker, S., Hilton, J., Kopp, G., Kostov, V., Kurtz, D. W., Laskar, J., Mason, B. D., Milone, E. F., Montgomery, M., Richards, M., Schmutz, W., Schou, J., and Stewart, S. G.: Nominal Values for Selected Solar and Planetary Quantities: IAU 2015 Resolution B3, Astron. J., 152, 41, https://doi.org/10.3847/0004-6256/152/2/41, 2016.
169. 2, 1993-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 28361-28371, 1998.
170. x enhancements in the southern hemisphere vortex in winter/spring of 2000, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2385-2388, 2001.
171. Randall, C. E., Harvey, V. L., Singleton, C. S., Bailey, S. M., Bernath, P. F., Codrescu, M., Nakajima, H., and Russell III, J. M.: Energetic particle precipitation effects on the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere in 1992-2005, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D08308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007696, 2007.
172. x descent in the Arctic middle atmosphere in early 2009, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18811, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039706, 2009.
173. Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
174. Reames, D.: Particle Acceleration at the Sun and in the Heliosphere, Space Sci. Rev., 90, 413-491, 1999.
175. x enhancements observed with MIPAS/ENVISAT, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00I11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012569, 2010.
176. Rees, M. H.: Physics and chemistry of the upper atmosphere, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511573118, 1989.
177. Reeves, G. D., McAdams, K. L., Friedel, R. H. W., and O'Brien, T. P.: Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during geomagnetic storms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1529, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016513, 2003.
178. Richardson, I. and Cane, H.: Near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 23 (1996-2009): Catalog and Summary of Properties, Sol. Phys., 264, 189-237, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-010-9568-6, 2010.
179. Rienecker, M. M., Suarez, M. J., Gelaro, R., Todling, R., Bacmeister, J., Liu, E., Bosilovich, M. G., Schubert, S. D., Takacs, L., Kim, G.-K., Bloom, S., Chen, J., Collins, D., Conaty, A., da Silva, A., Gu, W., Joiner, J., Koster, R. D., Lucchesi, R., Molod, A., Owens, T., Pawson, S., Pegion, P., Redder, C. R., Reichle, R., Robertson, F. R., Ruddick, A. G., Sienkiewicz, M., and Woollen, J.: MERRA: NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, J. Climate, 24, 3624-3648, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00015.1, 2011.
180. Rind, D., Lean, J., Lerner, J., Lonergan, P., and Leboissitier, A.: Exploring the stratospheric/tropospheric response to solar forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D24103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010114, 2008.
181. Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., Green, J. C., and Lam, M. M.: Use of POES SEM-2 observations to examine radiation belt dynamics and energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 115, A04202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JA014023, 2010.
182. Rodger, C. J., Kavanagh, A. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Marple, S. R.: Comparison between POES energetic electron precipitation observations and riometer absorptions: Implications for determining true precipitation fluxes, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 118, 7810-7821, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019439, 2013.
183. Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5, Part I, Tech. Rep. No. 349, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, 2003.
184. Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: Sensitivity of Simulated Climate to Horizontal and Vertical Resolution in the ECHAM5 Atmosphere Model, J. Climate, 19, 3771-3791, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3824.1, 2006.
185. Rohen, G. J., von Savigny, C., Sinnhuber, M., Llewellyn, E. J., Kaiser, J. W., Jackman, C. H., Kallenrode, M.-B., Schroter, J., Eichmann, K.-U., Bovensmann, H., and Burrows, J. P.: Ozone depletion during the solar proton events of October/November 2003 as seen by SCIAMACHY, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S39, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JA010984, 2005.
186. Rottman, G.: The SORCE Mission, Sol. Phys., 230, 7-25, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-8112-6, 2005.
187. Rozanov, E., Calisto, M., Egorova, T., Peter, T., and Schmutz, W.: Influence of the Precipitating Energetic Particles on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate, Surv. Geophys., 33, 483-501, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9192-0, 2012.
188. Rusch, D. W., Gérard, J.-C., Solomon, S., Crutzen, P. J., and Reid, G. C.: The effect of particle precipitation events on the neutral and ion chemistry of the middle atmosphere. I-Odd nitrogen, Planet. Space Sci., 29, 767-774, 1981.
189. Salmi, S.-M., Verronen, P. T., Thölix, L., Kyrölä, E., Backman, L., Karpechko, A. Yu., and Seppälä, A.: Mesosphere-to-stratosphere descent of odd nitrogen in February-March 2009 after sudden stratospheric warming, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4645-4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4645-2011, 2011.
190. Sander, R., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., Harder, H., Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Kubistin, D., Regelin, E., Riede, H., Sandu, A., Taraborrelli, D., Tost, H., and Xie, Z.-Q.: The atmospheric chemistry box model CAABA/MECCA-3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 373-380, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-373-2011, 2011.
191. Sander, R., Jöckel, P., Kirner, O., Kunert, A. T., Landgraf, J., and Pozzer, A.: The photolysis module JVAL-14, compatible with the MESSy standard, and the JVal PreProcessor (JVPP), Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2653-2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2653-2014, 2014.
192. Sander, S. P., Abbatt, J., Barker, J. R., Burkholder, J. B., Friedl, R. R., Golden, D. M., Huie, R. E., Kolb, C. E., Kurylo, M. J., Moortgat, G. K., Orkin, V. L., and Wine, P. H.: Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies, Tech. Rep. Evaluation No. 17, JPL Publication 10-6, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, available at: http://jpldataeval. jpl.nasa.gov, 2011.
193. Scaife, A. A., Ineson, S., Knight, J. R., Gray, L., Kodera, K., and Smith, D. M.: A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 434-439, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50099, 2013.
194. 2 doubling, J. Climate, 19, 3903-3931, 2006.
195. Schmutz, W., Fehlmann, A., Finsterle, W., Kopp, G., and Thuillier, G.: Total solar irradiance measurements with PREMOS/PICARD, in: AIP conference proceedings, vol. 1531 of American Institute of Physics Conference Series, p. 624, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4804847, 2013.
196. Schöll, M., de Wit, T. D., Kretzschmar, M., and Haberreiter, M.: Making of a solar spectral irradiance dataset I: observations, uncertainties, and methods, Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 6, A14, https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2016007, 2016.
197. Semeniuk, K., Fomichev, V. I., McConnell, J. C., Fu, C., Melo, S. M. L., and Usoskin, I. G.: Middle atmosphere response to the solar cycle in irradiance and ionizing particle precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 5045-5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-5045-2011, 2011.
198. Seppälä, A. and Clilverd, M. A.: Energetic Particle Forcing of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere: Comparison to solar irradiance forcing, Frontiers in Physics, 2, 25, https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2014.00025, 2014.
199. Seppälä, A., Verronen, P. T., Sofieva, V. F., Tamminen, J., Kyrölä, E., Rodger, C. J., and Clilverd, M. A.: Destruction of the tertiary ozone maximum during a solar proton event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025571, 2006.
200. Seppälä, A., Randall, C. E., Clilverd, M. A., Rozanov, E., and Rodger, C. J.: Geomagnetic activity and polar surface air temperature variability, J. Geophys. Res., 114, A10312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JA014029, 2009.
201. Seppälä, A., Matthes, K., Randall, C. E., and Mironova, I. A.: What is the solar influence on climate? Overview of activities during CAWSES-II, Prog. Earth Planet. Sc., 1, 24, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-014-0024-3, 2014.
202. Shibata, K. and Kodera, K.: Simulation of radiative and dynamical responses of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 67, 125-143, 2005.
203. Shindell, D. T., Schmidt, G. A., Mann, M. E., Rind, D., and Waple, A.: Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum, Science, 294, 2149-2152, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1064363, 2001.
204. x from the lower thermosphere to the upper stratosphere in the years 1991-2005, J. Geophys. Res., 116, A02312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA015825, 2011.
205. Sinnhuber, M., Nieder, H., and Wieters, N.: Energetic particle precipitation and the chemistry of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere, Surv. Geophys., 33, 1281-1334, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9201-3, 2012.
206. Sinnhuber, M., Friederich, F., Bender, S., and Burrows, J.: The response of mesospheric NO to geomagnetic forcing in 2002-2012 as seen by SCIAMACHY, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 121, 1281-1334, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA022284, 2016.
207. Siskind, D. E.: Atmospheric science across the Stratopause, vol. 123 of Geophysical Monograph, chapt. On the coupling between middle and upper atmospheric odd nitrogen, 101-116, American Geophysical Union, 2000.
208. Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Guemas, V., Hawkins, E., Hazeleger, W., Hermanson, L., Ho, C. K., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Lean, J., Matei, D., Merryfield, W. J., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, A., Wouters, B., and Wyser, K.: Real-time multimodel decadal climate predictions, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2875-2888, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0, 2013.
209. Solanki, S., Usoskin, I., Kromer, B., Schüssler, M., and Beer, J.: Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years, Nature, 431, 1084-1087, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02995, 2004.
210. Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Haigh, J. D.: Solar Irradiance Variability and Climate, Annu. Rev. Astron. Astr., 51, 311-351, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-astro-082812-141007, 2013.
211. Solomon, S., Rusch, D.W., Gérard, J.-C., Reid, G. C., and Crutzen, P. J.: The effect of particle precipitation events on the neutral and ion chemistry of the middle atmosphere. II-Odd hydrogen, Planet. Space Sci., 29, 885-892, 1981.
212. Solomon, S., Crutzen, P. J., and Roble, R. G.: Photochemical coupling of the thermosphere and the lower atmosphere 1. Odd nitrogen from 50 to 120 km, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 7206-7220, 1982.
213. Solomon, S. C. and Qian, L.: Solar extreme-ultraviolet irradiance for general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A10306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011160, 2005.
214. Steinhilber, F. and Beer, J.: Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 118, 1861-1867, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgra.50210, 2013.
215. St-Jean, C. and Charbonneau, P.: Solar cycle modelling using spatiotemporal decomposition schemes, J. Computat. Phys., 223, 50-66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2006.08.010, 2007.
216. Steinhilber, F., Abreu, J. A., Beer, J., Brunner, I., Christl, M., Fischer, H., Heikkilä, U., Kubik, P. W., Mann, M., McCracken, K. G., Miller, H., Miyahara, H., Oerter, H., and Wilhelms, F.: 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 5967-5971, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1118965109, 2012.
217. Stott, P., Jones, G. S., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?, J. Climate, 16, 4070-4093, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4079:DMUTSC>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
218. Summers, D., Ni, B., and Meredith, N. P.: Timescales for radiation belt electron acceleration and loss due to resonant wave-particle interactions: 1. Theory, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 112, A04206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JA011801, 2007.
219. Swider,W. and Keneshea, T.: Decrease of ozone and atomic oxygen in the lower mesosphere during a PCA event, Planet. Space Sci., 21, 1969-1973, https://doi.org/10.1016/0032-0633(73)90126-8, 1973.
220. Tapping, K. F.: The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7), SpaceWeather, 11, 394-406, https://doi.org/10.1002/swe.20064, 2013.
221. Thébault, E.: International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the 12th generation, Earth Planet. Space, 67, 1-19, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-015-0228-9, 2015.
222. Thieblemont, R., Matthes, K., Omrani, N.-E., Kodera, K., and Hansen, F.: Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability, Nature Commun., 6, 8268, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9268, 2015.
223. Thomas, R. J., Barth, C. A., Rottman, G. J., Rusch, D. W., Mount, G. H., Lawrence, G. M., Sanders, R. W., Thomas, G. E., and Clemens, L. E.: Mesospheric ozone depletion during the Solar Proton Event of July 13, 1982 Part I Measurement, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10, 253-255, https://doi.org/10.1029/GL010i004p00253, 1983.
224. Tobias, S. M.: The solar cycle: parity interactions and amplitude modulation., Astron. Astrophys., 322, 1007-1017, 1997.
225. x generation during geomagnetic storms, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 71, 1176-1189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2008.07.005, 2009.
226. Unruh, Y. C., Solanki, S. K., and Fligge, M.: The spectral dependence of facular contrast and solar irradiance variations, Astron. Astrophys., 345, 635-642, 1999.
227. Usoskin, I. G.: A History of Solar Activity over Millennia, Living Rev. Solar Phys., 10, 3603-3620, https://doi.org/10.12942/lrsp-2013-1, 2013.
228. Usoskin, I. G. and Kovaltsov, G. A.: Cosmic ray induced ionization in the atmosphere: Full modeling and practical applications, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D21206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007150, 2006.
229. Usoskin, I. G., Alanko-Huotari, K., Kovaltsov, G. A., and Mursula, K.: Heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays: Monthly reconstruction for 1951-2004, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A12108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011250, 2005.
230. Usoskin, I. G., Desorgher, L., Velinov, P., Storini, M., Flückiger, E. O., Bütikofer, R., and Kovaltsov, G. A.: Ionization of the earth's atmosphere by solar and galactic cosmic rays, Acta Geophys., 57, 88-101, https://doi.org/10.2478/s11600-008-0019-9, 2009.
231. Usoskin, I. G., Kovaltsov, G. A., and Mironova, I. A.: Cosmic ray induced ionization model CRAC:CRII: An extension to the upper atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D10302, 2010.
232. Usoskin, I. G., Bazilevskaya, G. A., and Kovaltsov, G. A.: Solar modulation parameter for cosmic rays since 1936 reconstructed from ground-based neutron monitors and ionization chambers, J. Geophys. Res., 116, A02104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA016105, 2011.
233. Usoskin, I. G., Hulot, G., Gallet, Y., Roth, R., Licht, A., Joos, F., Kovaltsov, G. A., Thébault, E., and Khokhlov, A.: Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity, Astron. Astrophys., 562, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201423391, 2014.
234. Van Allen, J. A. and Frank, L. A.: Radiation Around the Earth to a Radial Distance of 107,400 km, Nature, 183, 430-434, https://doi.org/10.1038/183430a0, 1959.
235. van de Kamp, M., Seppälä, A., Clilverd, M. A., Rodger, C. J., Verronen, P. T., and Whittaker, I. C.: A model providing longterm datasets of energetic electron precipitation during geomagnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 12520-12540, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024212, 2016.
236. Verronen, P. T. and Lehmann, R.: Analysis and parameterisation of ionic reactions affecting middle atmospheric HOx and NOy during solar proton events, Ann. Geophys., 31, 909-956, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-909-2013, 2013.
237. Verronen, P. T., Seppälä, A., Kyrölä, E., Tamminen, J., Pickett, H. M., and Turunen, E.: Production of odd hydrogen in the mesosphere during the January 2005 solar proton event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24811, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028115, 2006.
238. 3 in the Stratopause Region During the Halloween 2003 Solar Proton Event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035312, 2008.
239. Verronen, P. T., Santee, M. L., Manney, G. L., Lehmann, R., Salmi, S.-M., and Seppälä, A.: Nitric acid enhancements in the mesosphere during the January 2005 and December 2006 solar proton events, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D17301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016075, 2011a.
240. Verronen, P. T., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Wang, S.: First evidence of mesospheric hydroxyl response to electron precipitation from the radiation belts, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D07307, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014965, 2011b.
241. Vieira, L. E. A. and Solanki, S. K.: Evolution of the solar magnetic flux on time scales of years to millenia, Astron. Astrophys., 509, A100, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/200913276, 2010.
242. Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I.: Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astron. Astrophys., 531, L10, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011.
243. Viereck, R., Puga, L., McMullin, D., Judge, D., Weber, M., and Tobiska, W. K.: The Mg II index: A proxy for solar EUV, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1343-1346, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012551, 2001.
244. Vitt, F. M. and Jackman, C. H.: A comparison of sources of odd nitrogen production from 1974 through 1993 in the Earth's middle atmosphere as calculated using a two-dimensional model, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 6729-6739, 1996.
245. von Clarmann, T., Glatthor, N., Höpfner, M., Kellmann, S., Ruhnke, R., Stiller, G. P., Fischer, H., Funke, B., Gil-López, S., and López-Puertas, M.: Experimental Evidence of Perturbed Odd Hydrogen and Chlorine Chemistry After the October 2003 Solar Proton Events, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S45, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011053, 2005.
246. von Clarmann, T., Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Kellmann, S., Linden, A., Stiller, G. P., Jackman, C. H., and Harvey, V. L.: The Solar Proton Events in 2012 as Observed by MIPAS, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1-5, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50119, 2013.
247. Wang, Y.-M., Lean, J. L., and Sheeley, Jr., N. R.: Modeling the Sun's Magnetic Field and Irradiance since 1713, Astrophys. J., 625, 522-538, https://doi.org/10.1086/429689, 2005.
248. Watkins, N. W., Credgington, D., Hnat, B., Chapman, S. C., Freeman, M. P., and Greenhough, J.: Towards Synthesis of Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Scaling Exponents: A Fractional Lévy Motion Model, Space Sci. Rev., 121, 271-284, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-006-4578-2, 2005.
249. Weeks, L. H., Cuikay, R. S., and Corbin, J. R.: Ozone Measurements in the Mesosphere During The Solar Proton Event of 2 November 1969, J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1138-1142, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029<1138:OMITMD>2.0.CO;2, 1972.
250. Wenzler, T., Solanki, S. K., and Krivova, N. A.: Can surface magnetic fields reproduce solar irradiance variations in cycles 22 and 23?, Astron. Astrophys., 432, 1057-1061, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20041956, 2005.
251. Whittaker, I. C., Gamble, R. J., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Sauvaud, J.-A.: Determining the spectra of radiation belt electron losses: Fitting DEMETER electron flux observations for typical and storm times, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 118, 7611-7623, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019228, 2013.
252. Whittaker, I. C., Clilverd, M. A., and Rodger, C. J.: Characteristics of precipitating energetic electron fluxes relative to the plasmapause during geomagnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 119, 8784-8800, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020446, 2014a.
253. Whittaker, I. C., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Sauvaud, J.-A.: The effects and correction of the geometric factor for the POES/MEPED electron flux instrument using a multisatellite comparison, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 119, 6386-6404, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020021, 2014b.
254. Winkler, H., Kazeminejad, S., Sinnhuber, M., Kallenrode, M.-B., and Notholt, J.: Conversion of mesospheric HCl into active chlorine during the solar proton event in July 2000 in the northern polar region, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00I03, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011587, 2009.
255. Woods, T. N., Tobiska, W. K., Rottman, G. J., and Worden, J. R.: Improved solar Lyman α irradiance modeling from 1947 through 1999 based on UARS observations, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 27195-27216, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JA000051, 2000.
256. Woods, T. N., Eparvier, F. G., Bailey, S. M., Chamberlin, P. C., Lean, J., Rottman, G. J., Solomon, S. C., Tobiska, W. K., and Woodraska, D. L.: Solar EUV Experiment (SEE): Mission overview and first results, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 110, A01312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JA010765, 2005.
257. Woollings, T., Lockwood, M., Masato, G., Bell, C., and Gray, L.: Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, A6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044601, 2010.
258. Yando, K., Millan, R. M., Green, J. C., and Evans, D. S.: A Monte Carlo simulation of the NOAA POES Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector instrument, J. Geophys. Res., 116, A10231, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JA016671, 2011.
259. Yeates, A. R., Nandy, D., and Mackay, D. H.: Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection-versus Diffusiondominated Solar Convection Zones, Astrophys. J., 673, 544-556, https://doi.org/10.1086/524352, 2008.
260. Yeo, K. L., Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., and Glassmeier, K. H.: Reconstruction of total and spectral solar irradiance from 1974 to 2013 based on KPVT, SoHO/MDI and SDO/HMI observations, Astron. Astrophys., 570, A85, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201423628, 2014.
261. Yeo, K. L., Ball, W. T., Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., Unruh, Y. C., and Morrill, J.: UV solar irradiance in observations and the NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 6055-6070, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021277, 2015.
262. Zadorozhny, A., Tuchkov, G., Kikhtenko, V., Laštovičcka, J., Boška, J., and Novák, A.: Nitric oxide and lower ionosphere quantities during solar particle events of October 1989 after rocket and ground-based measurements, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 54, 183-192, https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9169(92)90127-7, 1992.
263. Zadorozhny, A. M., Kikhtenko, V. N., Kokin, G. A., Tuchkov, G. A., Tyutin, A. A., Chizhov, A. F., and Shtirkov, O. V.: Middle atmosphere response to the solar proton events of October 1989 using the results of rocket measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 21059-21069, https://doi.org/10.1029/93JD03194, 1994.