The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations

Geoscientific Model Development

Volumn 10, Issue 11, 2017, Pages 4005-4033

  Jungclaus, Johann H ^a   Bard, Edouard ^b   Baroni, Mélanie ^b   Braconnot, Pascale ^c   Cao, Jian ^d   Chini, Louise P ^e   Egorova, Tania ^f,g   Evans, Michael ^e   Fidel Gonzalez Rouco J ^h   Goosse, Hugues ⁱ   Hurtt, George C ^e   Joos, Fortunat ^j   Kaplan, Jed O ^k   Khodri, Myriam ^l   Klein Goldewijk, Kees ^m,n   Krivova, Natalie ^o   Legrande, Allegra N ^p   Lorenz, Stephan J ^a   Luterbacher, Jürg ^q   Man, Wenmin ^r   Maycock, Amanda C ^s   Meinshausen, Malte ^t,u   Moberg, Anders ^v   Muscheler, Raimund ^w   Nehrbass Ahles, Christoph ^j   Otto Bliesner, Bette I ^x   Phipps, Steven J ^y   Pongratz, Julia ^a   Rozanov, Eugene ^f,g   Schmidt, Gavin A ^p   Schmidt, Hauke ^a   Schmutz, Werner ^f   Schurer, Andrew ^z   Shapiro, Alexander I ^o   Sigl, Michael ^j,aa   Smerdon, Jason E ^ab   Solanki, Sami K ^o   Timmreck, Claudia ^a   Toohey, Matthew ^ac   Usoskin, Ilya G ^ad   Wagner, Sebastian ^ae   Wu, Chi Ju ^o   Leng Yeo, Kok ^o   Zanchettin, Davide ^af   Zhang, Qiong ^v   Zorita, Eduardo ^ae   more..

^a MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^b AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITY   (France)

^c LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^d NANJING UNIVERSITY OF INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (China)

^e UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^f WORLD RADIATION CENTER   (Switzerland)

^g ETH Zurich   (Switzerland)

^h UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID   (Spain)

ⁱ UNIVERSITÉ CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN   (Belgium)

^j UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

^k UNIVERSITY OF LAUSANNE   (Switzerland)

^l UNIVERSITÉ PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE   (France)

^m UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

ⁿ PBL NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY   (Netherlands)

^o MAX PLANCK INSTITUT FÜR SONNENSYSTEMFORSCHUNG   (Germany)

^p NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES   (United States)

^q JUSTUS LIEBIG UNIVERSITY   (Germany)

^r INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^s UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^t UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^u POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^v STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^w LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^x NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^y UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

^z UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH   (United Kingdom)

^aa PAUL SCHERRER INSTITUTE   (Switzerland)

^ab International Research Institute for Climate and Society   (United States)

^ac GEOMAR HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH KIEL   (Germany)

^ad UNIVERSITY OF OULU   (Finland)

^ae INSTITUTE OF MATERIALS RESEARCH   (Germany)

^af CA' FOSCARI UNIVERSITY OF VENICE   (Italy)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; CMIP; CONCENTRATION (COMPOSITION); DATA SET; EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN; EXPERIMENTAL STUDY; GREENHOUSE GAS; PALEOCLIMATE; SIMULATION; TIMESCALE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 85033382934     PISSN: 1991959X     EISSN: 19919603     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017     Document Type: Article

References (184)

1. Ammann, C. M., Joos, F., Schimel, D. S., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Tomas, R. A.: Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 3713-3718, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605064103, 2007.
2. Anchukaitis, K. J., Buckley, B. N., Cook, E. R., Cook, B. I., D'Arrigo, R. D., and Ammann, C. M.: The influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044843, 2010.
3. Anchukaitis, K., Breitenmoser, P., Briffa K., Buchwal, A., Büntgen, U., Cook E., D'Arrigo, R., Esper, J., EVans, M., Frank, D., Grudd, H., Gunnarson, B., Hughes, M., Kirdyanov, A., Körner, C., Krusic, P., Luckman, B., Melvin, T., Salzer, M., Shashkin, A., Timmreck, C., Vaganov, E., and Wilson, R.: Tree-rings and volcanic cooling, Nat. Geosci., 5, 836-837, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1645, 2012.
4. Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E. V., Raible, C. C., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, Clim. Past, 10, 921-938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014.
5. Atwood, A. R., Wu, E., Frierson, D. M. W., Battisti, D. S., and Sachs, J. P.: Quantifying climate forcings and feedbacks over the last millennium in the CMIP5/PMIP3 models, J. Climate, 29, 1161-1178, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0063.1, 2016.
6. Baliunas, S. L., Donahue, R. A., Soon, W. H., Horne, J. H., Frazer, J.,Woodart-Eklund, L., Bradford, M., Rao, L. M.,Wilson, O. C., Zhang, Q., Bennety,W., Briggs, J., Carroll, S. M., Duncan, D. K., Figueroa, D., Lanning, H. H., Misch, T., Mueller, J., Noyes, R. W., Poppe, D., Porter, A. C., Robinson, C. R., Russel, J., Shelton, J. C., Soyumer, T., Vaughan, A. H., and Whitney, J. H.: Chromospheric variations in main-sequence stars, Astrophys. J., 438, 269-287, https://doi.org/10.1086/175072, 1995.
7. Barboza, L., Li, B., Tingely, M., and Viens, F.: Reconstructing past climate from natural proxies and estimated climate forcings using short-and long-memory models, Ann. Appl. Stat., 8, 1966-2001, 2014.
8. Bard, E., Raisbeck, G., Yiou, F., and Jouzel, J.: Solar irradiance during the last 1200 yr based on cosmogenic nuclides, Tellus B, 52, 985-992, 2000.
9. Baroni, M., Bard, E., and ASTER Team: A new 10Be record recovered from an Antarctic ice core: validity and limitations to record the solar activity, Geophysical Research Abstracts, 17, EGU2015-6357, 2015.
10. Beer, J., McCracken, K. G., and von Steiger, R.: Cosmogenic Radionuclides: Theory and Applications in the Terrestrial and Space Environments, Springer, Berlin, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14651-0, 2012.
11. Berger, A.: Long-term variations of daily insolation and quaternary climatic changes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2362-2367, 1978.
12. Bindoff, N. L., Stott, P. A., AchutaRao, K. M., Allen, M. R., Gillett, N., Gutzler, D., Hansingo, K., Hegerl, G., Hu, Y., Jain, S., Mokhov, I. I., Overland, J., Perlwitz, J., Sebbari, R., and Zhang, X.: Detection and attribution: from Global to Regional. In: Climatic Change 2013: The physical basis. Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
13. Bolt, J. And Van Zanden, J. L.: The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts, Econ. Hist. Rev., 67, 627-651, 2014.
14. Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., and Zanchettin, D.: Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble, Clim. Past, 9, 2471-2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, 2013.
15. Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate models using paleoclimatic data, Nature Climate Change, 2, 417-424, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012.
16. Brasseur, G. And Carlson, D.: Future directions for the World Climate Research Programme, EOS, 96, https://doi.org/10.1029/2015EO033577, 2015.
17. Bradley, R. S., Wanner, H., and Diaz, H. F.: The Medieval Quiet Period, Holocene, 26, 990-993, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683615622552, 2016.
18. Brohan, P., Allan, R., Freeman, E., Wheeler, D., Wilkinson, C., and Williamson, F.: Constraining the temperature history of the past millennium using early instrumental observations, Clim. Past, 8, 1551-1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1551-2012, 2012.
19. Brovkin, V., Lorenz, S. J., Jungclaus, J., Raddatz, T., Timmreck, C., Reick, C. R., Segschneider, J., and Six, K.: Sensitivity of a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium, Tellus B, 62, 674-681, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00471.x, 2010.
20. Brovkin, V., Boysen, L., Arora, V., Boisier, J., Cadule, P., Chini, L., Claussen, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gayler, V., Van den Hurk, B., Hurtt, G., Jones, C., Kato, E., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Pacifico, F., Pongratz, J., and Weiss, M.: Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century, J. Climate, 26, 6859-6881, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00623.1, 2013.
21. Büntgen, U., Tegel, W., Nicolussi, K., McCormick, M., Frank, D., Trouet, V., Kaplan, J. O., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U., Wanner, H., Luterbacher, J., and Esper, J.: 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility, Science, 331, 578-582, 2011.
22. Büntgen, U., Myglan, V. S., Charpentier Ljungqvist, F., Mc-Cormick, M., Di Cosmo, N., Sigl, M., Jungclaus, J., Wagner, S., Krusic, P. J., Esper, J., Kaplan, J. O., de Vaan, M. A. C., Luterbacher, J., Wacker, L., Tegel, W., and Kirdyanov, A. V.: Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD, Nature Geosci., 9, 231-236, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2652, 2016.
23. Camenisch, C., Keller, K. M., Salvisberg, M., Amann, B., Bauch, M., Blumer, S., Brázdil, R., Brönnimann, S., Büntgen, U., Campbell, B. M. S., Fernández-Donado, L., Fleitmann, D., Glaser, R., González-Rouco, F., Grosjean, M., Hoffmann, R. C., Huhtamaa, H., Joos, F., Kiss, A., Kotyza, O., Lehner, F., Luterbacher, J., Maughan, N., Neukom, R., Novy, T., Pribyl, K., Raible, C. C., Riemann, D., Schuh, M., Slavin, P.,Werner, J. P., and Wetter, O.: The 1430s: A cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe, Clim. Past, 12, 2107-2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016.
24. Charlton-Perez, A. J., Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Black, R. X., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., Davis, N. A., Gerber, E. P., Gillett, N., Hardiman, S., Kim, J., Krüger, K., Lee, Y.-Y., Manzini, E., Mc-Daniel, B. A., PolVani, L., Reichler, T., Shaw, T. A., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W., Toohey, M., Wilcox, L., Yoden, S., Christiansen, B., Lott, F., Shindell, D., Yukimoto, S., and Watanabe, S.: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2494-2505, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50125, 2013.
25. Chikamoto, M. O., Timmermann, A., Yoshimori, M., Lehner, F., Laurian, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Mouchet, A., Joos, F., Raible, C. C., and Cobb, K. M.: Intensification of tropical Pacific biological productivity due to volcanic eruptions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1-9, 2016.
26. Clette, F., Svalgaard, L., Vaquero, J. M., and Cliver, E. W.: Revisiting the Sunspot Number. A 400-year perspective on the solar cycle, Space Sci. Rev., 186, 35-103, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-014-0074-2, 2014.
27. Coats, S., Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., and Seager, R.: North American pan-continental droughts in model simulations of the last millennium, J. Climate, 28, 2025-2043, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00634.1, 2015.
28. Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., and Seager, R.: Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced, J. Climate, 28, 124-142, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1, 2015.
29. Coddington, O., Lean, J., Lindholm, D., Pilewskie, P., Snow, M., and NOAA CDR Program: NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI), Version 2. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, https://doi.org/10.7289/V51J97P6, 2015.
30. Cook, B. I., Anchukaitis, K. J., Kaplan, J. O., Puma, M. J., Kelley, M., and Gueyffier, D.: Pre-Columbian deforestation as an amplifier of drought in Mesoamerica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052565, 2012.
31. Cook, B. I., Ault, T. R., and Smerdon, J. E.: Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains, Sci. Adv., 1, e1400082, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400082, 2015.
32. Crowley, T. J.: Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years, Science, 289, 270-277, 2000.
33. Crowley, T. J. And Unterman, M. B.: Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 187-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-187-2013, 2013.
34. Dermody, B. J., de Boer, H. J., Bierkens, M. F. P., Weber, S. L., Wassen, M. J., and Dekker, S. C.: A seesaw in Mediterranean precipitation during the Roman Period linked to millennialscale changes in the North Atlantic, Clim. Past, 8, 637-651, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-637-2012, 2012.
35. Deser, C., Phillips, A. S., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H.: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability, Climate Dyn., 38, 527-546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x, 2012.
36. Ding, Y., Carton, J. A., Chepurin, G. A., Stenchikov, G., Robock, A., Sentman, L. T., and Krasting, J. P.: Ocean response to volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project5 (CMIP5) simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 5622-5637, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009780, 2014.
37. Eddy, J. A.: The Maunder Minimum, Science, 192, 1189-1202, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.192.4245.1189, 1976.
38. Egorova, T., Schmutz, W., Rozanov, E., Shapiro, A. O., Usoskin, I., Beer, J., Tagirov, R. V., and Peter, T.: Revised historical solar irradiance forcing, Astron. Astrophys., in review, 2017.
39. Ermolli, I., Matthes, K., Dudok deWit, T., Krivova, N. A., Tourpali, K.,Weber, M., Unruh, Y. C., Gray, L., Langematz, U., Pilewskie, P., Rozanov, E., Schmutz, W., Shapiro, A., Solanki, S. K., and Woods, T. N.: Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945-3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, 2013.
40. EVans, M. N., Tolwinski-Ward, S. E., Thompson, D. M., and Anchukaitis, K. J.: Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 76, 16-28, 2013.
41. Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937-1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
42. Fernández-Donado, L.: Forced and internal variability in temperature simulations and reconstructions of the Common Era, PhD Thesis, Departamento de Fisica de la Terra, Astronomia y Astrofisica II, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 169 pp., 2015.
43. Fernández-Donado, L., González-Rouco, J. F., Raible, C. C., Ammann, C. M., Barriopedro, D., García-Bustamante, E., Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Phipps, S. J., Servonnat, J., Swingedouw, D., Tett, S. F. B., Wagner, S., Yiou, P., and Zorita, E.: Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium, Clim. Past, 9, 393-421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-393-2013, 2013.
44. Feulner, G.: Are the most recent estimates for Maunder Minimum solar irradiance in agreement with temperature reconstructions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048529, 2011.
45. Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of climate models, in: Climatic Change 2013: The physical basis. Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
46. Fontenla, J., White, O. R., Fox, P. A., Avrett, E. H., and Kurucz, R. L.: Calculation of Solar Irradiances. I. Synthesis of the Solar Spectrum, Astrophys. J., 518, 480-499, 1999.
47. Gagen, M., Zorita, E., McCarrol, D., Zahn, M., Young, G. H. F., and Robertson, I.: North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium, Nat. Geosci., 9, 630-635, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2752, 2016.
48. Gao, C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the last 1500 years: An improved ice-core based index for climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D2311, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239, 2008.
49. Gillett, N. P., Shiogama, H., Funke, B., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Matthes, K., Santer, B. D., Stone, D., and Tebaldi, C.: The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685-3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, 2016.
50. González-Rouco, J. F., von Storch, H., and Zorita, E.: Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018264, 2003.
51. Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., and Bradley, R. S.: Internal and forced climate variability during the last millennium: A model-data comparison using ensemble simulations, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 24, 1345-1360, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.12.009, 2005.
52. Goosse, H., Arzel, O., Luterbacher, J., Mann, M. E., Renssen, H., Riedwyl, N., Timmermann, A., Xoplaki, E., and Wanner, H.: The origin of the European ";Medieval Warm Period";, Clim. Past, 2, 99-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2-99-2006, 2006.
53. Goosse, H., Guiot, J., Mann, M. E., Dubinkina, S., and Sallaz-Damaz, Y.: The medieval climate anomaly in Europe: comparison of the summer and annual mean signals in two reconstructions and in simulations with data assimilation, Global Planet. Change, 84-85, 35-47, 2012.
54. Gray, L. J., Beer, J., Geller, M., Haigh, J. D., Lockwood, M., Matthes, K., Cubasch, U., Fleitmann, D., Harrison, G., Hood, L., Luterbacher, J., Meehl, G. A., Shindell, D., Van Geel, B., and White, W.: Solar influences on climate, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000282, 2010.
55. Gregory, J. M.: Long-term effect of volcanic forcing on ocean heat content, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045507, 2010.
56. Gregory, J. M., Bouttes, N., Griffies, S. M., Haak, H., Hurlin, W. J., Jungclaus, J., Kelley, M., Lee, W. G., Marshall, J., Romanou, A., Saenko, O. A., Stammer, D., and Winton, M.: The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3993-4017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016, 2016.
57. Griffies, S. M., Danabasoglu, G., Durack, P. J., Adcroft, A. J., Balaji, V., Böning, C.W., Chassignet, E. P., Curchitser, E., Deshayes, J., Drange, H., Fox-Kemper, B., Gleckler, P. J., Gregory, J. M., Haak, H., Hallberg, R. W., Heimbach, P., Hewitt, H. T., Holland, D. M., Ilyina, T., Jungclaus, J. H., Komuro, Y., Krasting, J. P., Large, W. G., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., McDougall, T. J., Nurser, A. J. G., Orr, J. C., Pirani, A., Qiao, F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., Treguier, A. M., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valdivieso, M.,Wang, Q.,Winton, M., and Yeager, S. G.: OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231-3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016.
58. Haigh, J. D.: The Role of Stratospheric Ozone in Modulating the Solar Radiative Forcing of Climate, Nature, 370, 544-546, https://doi.org/10.1038/3705440, 1994.
59. Hall, J. C. And Lockwood, G. W.: The chromospheric activity and variability of cycling and flat activity solar-analog stars, Astrophys. J., 614, 942-946, 2004.
60. Haywood, A. M., Dowsett, H. J., Dolan, A. M., Rowley, D., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., Chandler, M. A., Hunter, S. J., Lunt, D. J., Pound, M., and Salzmann, U.: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design, Clim. Past, 12, 663-675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, 2016.
61. Hegerl, G. C., Crowley, T. J., Hyde, W. T., and Frame, D. J.: Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries, Nature, 440, 1029-1032, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04679, 2006.
62. Hegerl, G., Luterbacher, J., González-Rouco, F. J., Tett, S., Crowley, T., and Xoplaki, E.: Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures, Nat. Geosci., 4, 99-103, 2011.
63. Heikkilä, U., Beer, J., and Feichter, J.: Meridional transport and deposition of atmospheric 10Be, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 515-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-515-2009, 2009.
64. Hind, A. And Moberg, A.: Past millennium solar forcing magnitude. A statistical hemispheric-scale climate model versus proxy data comparison, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2527-2537, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1526-6, 2013.
65. Hind, A., Moberg, A., and Sundberg, R.: Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium-Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing, Clim. Past, 8, 1355-1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012.
66. Hurtt, G., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Popp, A., Stehfest, E., Van Vuuren, D., and Zhang, X.: Harmonization of global land-use change and management for the period 850-2100, to be submitted to Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 2017.
67. Jones, C. D., Arora, V., Friedlingstein, P., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Dunne, J., Graven, H., Hoffman, F., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Jung, M., Kawamiya, M., Koven, C., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Randerson, J. T., and Zaehle, S.: C4MIP-The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853-2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016.
68. Judge, P. G., Lockwood, G. W., Radick, R. R., Henry, G. W., Shapiro, A. I., Schmutz, W., and Lindsey, C.: Confronting a solar irradiance reconstruction with solar and stellar data, Astron. Astrophys., 544, A88, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201218903, 2012.
69. Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Timmreck, C., Reick, C. H., Brovkin, V., Six, K., Segschneider, J., Giorgetta, M. A., Crowley, T. J., Pongratz, J., Krivova, N. A., Vieira, L. E., Solanki, S. K., Klocke, D., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Raddatz, T. J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Widmann, H., Claussen, M., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 723-737, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-723-2010, 2010.
70. Jungclaus, J. H., Lohmann, K., and Zanchettin, D.: Enhanced 20thcentury heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 10, 2201-2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014, 2014.
71. Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Haywood, A. M., Jungclaus, J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Brierley, C., Crucifix, M., Dolan, A., Fernandez-Donado, L., Fischer, H., Hopcroft, P. O., IVanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Peltier, W. R., Phipps, S. J., Roche, D. M., Schmidt, G. A., Tarasov, L., Valdes, P. J., Zhang, Q., and Zhou, T.: PMIP4-CMIP6: The contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-106, in review, 2016.
72. Kageyama, M., Albani, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Hopcroft, P. O., IVanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Marti, O., Peltier, W. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Roche, D. M., Tarasov, L., Zhang, X., Brady, E. C., Haywood, A. M., LeGrande, A. N., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Renssen, H., Tomas, R. A., Zhang, Q., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bartlein, P. J., Cao, J., Li, Q., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Shi, X., Volodin, E., Yoshida, K., Zhang, X., and Zheng, W.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035-4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017.
73. Kaplan, J. O., Krumhardt, K. M., Ellis, E. C., Ruddiman, W. F., Lemmen, C., and Klein Goldewijk, K.: Holocene carbon emission as a result of anthropogenic land-cover change, Holocene, 21, 775-791, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610386983, 2011.
74. Kaplan, J. O.: Holocene Carbon Cycle: Climate or humans, Nat. Geosci., 8, 335-336, 2015.
75. Kavvada, A., Ruiz-Barradas, A., and Nigam, S.: AMO's structute and climate footprint in observations and IPCC AR5 climate simulations, Clim. Dyn., 41, 1345-1364, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1712-1, 2013.
76. Keller, K. M., Joos, F., Lehner, F., and Raible, C. C.: Detecting changes in marine responses to ENSO from 850 to 2100 C.E.: Insights from the ocean carbon cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 518-525, 2015.
77. Klein Goldewijk, K.: A historical land use data set for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2, DANS, https://doi.org/10.17026/dansznk-cfy3, 2016.
78. Kopp, G.: An assessment of the solar irradiance record for climate studie, J. Space Wea. Space Clim., 4, A14, https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2014012, 2014.
79. Kovaltsov, G. A. And Usoskin, I. G.: A new 3D numerical model of cosmogenic nuclide 10Be production in the atmosphere, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 291, 182-188, 2010.
80. Kovaltsov, G. A., Mishev, A., and Usoskin, I. G.: A new model of cosmogenic production of radiocarbon 14C in the atmosphere, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 337, 114-120, 2012.
81. Kremser, S., Thomason, L. W., von Hobe, M., Hermann, M., Deshler, T., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Stenke, A., Schwarz, J. P., Weigel, R., Fueglistaler, S., Prata, F. J., Vernier, J.-P., Schlager, H., Barnes, J. E., Antuna-Marrero, J.-C., Fairlie, D., Palm, M., Mahieu, E., Notholt, J., Rex, M., Bingen, C., Vanhellemont, F., Bourassa, A., Plane, J. M. C., Klocke, D., Carn, S. A., Clarisse, L., Trickl, T., Neely, R., James, A. D., Rieger, L., Wilson, J. C., and Meland, B.: Stratospheric aerosol-Observations, processes, and impact on climate, Rev. Geophys., 54, 1-58, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000511, 2016.
82. Krivova, N. A., Balmaceda, L., and Solanki, S. K.: Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux, Astron. Astrophys., 467, 335-346, 2007.
83. Krivova, N. A., Vieira, L. E. A., and Solanki, S. K.: Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 115, A12112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA015431, 2010.
84. Landrum, L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Wahl, E. R., Conley, A., Lawrence, P. J., Rosenbloom, N., and Teng, H.: Last Millennium climate and its variability in CCSM4, J. Climate, 26, 1085-1111, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00416.1, 2013.
85. Lawrence, D. M., Hurtt, G. C., Arneth, A., Brovkin, V., Calvin, K. V., Jones, A. D., Jones, C. D., Lawrence, P. J., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Pongratz, J., Seneviratne, S. I., and Shevliakova, E.: The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973-2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016.
86. LeGrande, A. N., Tsigaridis, K., and Bauer, S. E.: Role of atmospheric chemistry in the climate impacts of stratospheric volcanic injections, Nat. Geosci., 9, 652-655, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2771, 2016.
87. Lehner, F., Raible, C. C., and Stocker, T. F.: Testing the robustness of a precipitation proxy-based North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 45, 85-94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.04.025, 2012.
88. Lehner, F., Born, A., Raible, C. C., and Stocker, T. F.: Amplified inception of European Little Ice Age by sea ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, J. Climate, 26, 7586-7602, 2013.
89. Lehner, F., Joos, F., Raible, C. C., Mignot, J., Born, A., Keller, K. M., and Stocker, T. F.: Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411-434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015.
90. Lehner, F., Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Deser, C., and Frölicher, T. L.: The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2851-2858, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067935, 2016.
91. Lockwood, M., Owens, M., Barnard, L., and Usoskin, I. G.: Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 3. Effects of Regression Procedures on the Calibration of Historic Sunspot Data, Solar Phys., 291, 2829-2841, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-015-0829-2, 2016.
92. Ljungqvist, F. C., Krusic, P. J., Sundqvist, H. S., Zorita, E., Brattstroem, G., and Frank, D.: Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate variability over the past twelve centuries, Nature, 532, 94-98, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17418, 2016.
93. Luterbacher, J., Rickli, R., Xoplaki, E., Tinguely, C., Beck, C., Pfister, C., and Wanner, J.: The Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715)-A Key Period forStudying Decadal Scale Climatic Change in Europe, Climatic Change, 49, 441-462, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010667524422, 2001.
94. Luterbacher, J., Werner, J., Smerdon, J., Barriopedro, D., Fernández-Donado, L., González-Rouco, J., Ljungqvist, F., Büntgen, U., Esper, J., Zorita, E., Wagner, S., Frank, D., Barriendos, M., Bertolin, C., Bothe, O., Brázdil, R., Dario, C., Dobrovolný, P., Gagen, M., García-Bustamante, E., Ge, Q., Gómez-Navarro, J., Guiot, J., Hao, Z., Hegerl, G., Holmgren, K., Jungclaus, J. H., Klimenko, V., Martín-Chivelet, J., McCarroll, D., Pfister, C., Roberts, N., Schindler, A., Schurer, A., Solomina, O., Toreti, A., von Gunten, L., Wahl, E., Wanner, H., Wetter, O., Xoplaki, E., Yuan, N., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, H., and Zerefos, C.: European summer temperatures since Roman times, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 024001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001, 2016.
95. Maddison, A.: The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2003.
96. Man, W., Zhou, T., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Simulation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon during the Last Millennium with the MPI Earth System Model, J. Climate, 25, 7852-7866, 2012.
97. Man, W. And Zhou, T.: Regional-scale Surface Air Temperature and East Asian Summer Monsoon Changes during the Last Millennium Simulated by the FGOALS-gl Climate System Modell, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 31, 765-778, 2014.
98. Marcott, S. A., Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., and Mix, A. C.: A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, Science, 339, 1198-1201, 2013.
99. Masson-Delmotte, V., Schulz, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Beer, J., Ganopolski, A., González Rouco, J. F., Jansen, E., Lambeck, K., Luterbacher, J., Naish, T., Osborn, T., Otto-Bliesner, B., Quinn, T., Ramesh, R., Rojas, M., Shao X., and Timmermann, A.: Information from Paleoclimatic archives, in: Climate Change 2013: The physical basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
100. Matthes, K., Funke, B., and ersson, M. E., Barnard, L., Beer, J., Charbonneau, P., Clilverd, M. A., Dudok de Wit, T., Haberreiter, M., Hendry, A., Jackman, C. H., Kretzschmar, M., Kruschke, T., Kunze, M., Langematz, U., Marsh, D. R., Maycock, A. C., Misios, S., Rodger, C. J., Scaife, A. A., Seppälä, A., Shangguan, M., Sinnhuber, M., Tourpali, K., Usoskin, I., Van de Kamp, M., Verronen, P. T., and Versick, S.: Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247-2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017.
101. Maycock, A. C., Matthes, K., Tegtmeier, S., Thiéblemont, R., and Hood, L.: The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone-Part 1: A comparison of recently updated satellite observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10021-10043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, 2016.
102. Maycock, A. C., Matthes, K., Tegtmeier, S., Schmidt, H., Thiéblemont, R., Hood, L., Bekki, S., Deushi, M., Jöckel, P., Kirner, O., Kunze, M., Marchand, M., Marsh, D. R., Michou, M., Revell, L. E., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Yamashita, Y., and Yoshida, K.: The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone. Part II: Analysis of global models, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-477, in review, 2017.
103. Miller, G. H., Geirsdottir, A., Zhong, Y., Larsen, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Holland, M. M., Bailey, D. A., Refsnider, K. A., Lehman, S. J., Southon, J. R., and erson, C., Bjornsson, H., and Thordarson, T.: Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050168, 2012.
104. McGrath, M. J., Luyssaert, S., Meyfroidt, P., Kaplan, J. O., Bürgi, M., Chen, Y., Erb, K., Gimmi, U., McInerney, D., Naudts, K., Otto, J., Pasztor, F., Ryder, J., Schelhaas, M.-J., and Valade, A.: Reconstructing European forest management from 1600 to 2010, Biogeosciences, 12, 4291-4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4291-2015, 2015.
105. McGregor, H. V., EVans, M. N., Goosse, H., Leduc, G., Martrat, B., Addison, J. A., Mortyn, P. G., Oppo, D. W., Seidenkrantz, M.-S., Sicre, M.-A., Phipps, S. J., Selvaraj, K., Thirumalai, K., Filipsson, H. L., and Ersek, V.: Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industial Common Era, Nat. Geosci., 8, 671-677, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2510, 2015.
106. McHargue, L. R. And Damon, P. E.: The global beryllium 10 cycle, Rev. Geophys., 29, 141-158, 1991.
107. Meinshausen, M., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N., Etheridge, D. M., Fraser, P. J., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Trudinger, C. M., Krummel, P. B., Beyerle, U., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., Enting, I. G., Law, R. M., Lunder, C. R., O'Doherty, S., Prinn, R. G., Reimann, S., Rubino, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., Wang, R. H. J., and Weiss, R.: Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057-2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017.
108. Milinski, S., Bader, J., Haak, H., Siongco, A. C., and Jungclaus, J. H.: High atmospheric horizontal resolution eliminates the wind-driven coastal warm bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10455-10462, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070530, 2016.
109. Miller, G. H., Geirsdóttir, Á., Zhong, Y., Larsen, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Holland, M. M., Bailey, D. A., Refsnider, K. A., Lehman, S. J., Southon, J. R., and erson, C., Björnsson, H., and Thordarson, T.: Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39 , L02708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050168, 2012.
110. Miyake, F., Nagaya, K., Masuda, K., Nakamura, T.: A signature of cosmic-ray increase in AD 774-775 from tree rings in Japan, Nature, 486, 240-242, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11123, 2012.
111. Moberg, A., Sundberg, R., Grudd, H., and Hind, A.: Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium-Part 3: Practical considerations, relaxed assumptions, and using tree-ring data to address the amplitude of solar forcing, Clim. Past, 11, 425-448, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-425-2015, 2015.
112. Monfreda, C., Ramankutty, N., and Foley, J. A.: Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB1022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB002947, 2008.
113. Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Herbst, K., and Nilsson, A.: The revised sunspot record in comparison to cosmogenic radionuclidebased solar activity reconstruction, Solar Phys., 29, 3025-3043, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-016-0969-z, 2016.
114. Nevle, R. J., Bird, D. K., Ruddiman,W. F., and Dull, R. A.: Neotropical human-landscape interactions, fire, and atmospheric CO2 during European conquest, Holocene, 21, 853-864, 2011.
115. Notz, D., Jahn, A., Holland, M., Hunke, E., Massonnet, F., Stroeve, J., Tremblay, B., and Vancoppenolle, M.: The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3427-3446, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3427-2016, 2016.
116. Ortega, P., Lehner, F., Swingedouw, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Raible, C. C., Casado, M., and Yiou, P.: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium, Nature, 523, 71-74, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14518, 2015.
117. Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L., Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.: Climate Variability and Change since 850 C.E.: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 735-754, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1, 2016.
118. Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Capron, E., Carlson, A. E., Dutton, A., Fischer, H., Goelzer, H., Govin, A., Haywood, A., Joos, F., Legrande, A. N., Lipscomb,W. H., Lohmann, G., Mahowald, N., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Pausata, F. S. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Phipps, S. J., Renssen, H., and Zhang, Q.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979-4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017.
119. PAGES2k Consortium: Ahmed, M., Anchukaitis, K. J., Asrat, A., Borgaonkar, H. P., Braida, M., Buckley, B. M., Büntgen, U., Chase, B. M., Christie, D. A., Cook, E. R., Curran, M. A. J., Diaz, H. F., Esper, J., Fan, Z.-X., Gaire, N. P., Ge, Q., Gergis, J., González-Rouco, J. F., Goosse, H., Grab, S. W., Graham, N., Graham, R., Grosjean, M., Hanhijärvi, S. T., Kaufman, D. S., Kiefer, T., Kimura, K., Korhola, A. A., Krusic, P. J., Lara, A., Lézine, A.-M., Ljungqvist, F. C., Lorrey, A. M., Luterbacher, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., McCarroll, D., McConnell, J. R., McKay, N. P., Morales, M. S., Moy, A. D. MulVaney, R., Mundo, I. A., Nakatsuka, T., Nash, D. J., Neukom, R., Nicholson, S. E., Oerter, H., Palmer, J. G., Phipps, S. J., Prieto, M. R., Rivera, A., Sano, M., Severi, M., Shanahan, T. M., Shao, X., Shi, F., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solomina, O. N., Steig, E. J., Stenni, B., Thamban, M., Trouet, V., Turney, C. S. M., Umer, M., Van Ommen, T., Verschuren, D., Viau, A. E., Villalba, R., Vinther, B. M., von Gunten, L., Wagner, S., Wahl, E. R., Wanner, H., Werner, J. P., White, J.W. C., Yasue, K., and Zorita, E.: Continental-scale temperature variability during the last two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 6, 339-346, 2013.
120. PAGES2k-PMIP3 group: Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium, Clim. Past, 11, 1673-1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015, 2015.
121. Pfister, C. And Brázdil, R.: Social vulnerability to climate in the ";Little Ice Age";: An example from Central Europe in the early 1770s, Clim. Past, 2, 115-129, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2-115-2006, 2006.
122. Poluianov, S. V., Kovaltsov, G. A., Mishev, A. L., and Usoskin, I. G.: Production of cosmogenic isotopes 7e, 10Be, 14C, 22Na, and 36Cl in the atmosphere: Altitudinal profiles of yield functions, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025034, 2016.
123. Pongratz, J., Reick, C., Raddatz, T., and Claussen, M.: A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB3018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003153, 2008.
124. Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Reick, C. H., Esch, M., and Claussen, M.: Radiative forcing from anthropogenic land cover change since A.D. 800, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L02709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003153, 2009.
125. Raible, C. C., Lehner, F., González-Rouco, J. F., and Fernández-Donado, L.: Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD, Clim. Past, 10, 537-550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, 2014.
126. Raible, C. C., Brönnimann, S., Auchmann, R., Brohan, P., Frölicher, T., Graf, H. F., Jones, P., Luterbacher, J., Muthers, S., Robock, A., Self, S., Sudrajat, A., Timmreck, C., and Wegmann, M.: Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects, Wires Clim. Change, 7, 569-589, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.407, 2016.
127. Reimer, P. J., Baillie M. G. L., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J. W., Blackwell, P. G., Bronk Ramsey, C., Buck, C. E., Burr, G. S., Edwards, R. L., Friedrich, M., Grootes, P. M., Guilderson, T. P., Hajdas, I., Heaton, T. J., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kaiser, K. F., Kromer, B., McCormac, F. G., Manning, S. W., Reimer, R. W., Richards, D. A., Southon, J. R., Talamo, S., Turney, C. S. M., Van der Plicht, J., and Weyhenmeyer, C. E.: INTCAL09 and Marine09 radiocarbon age calibration curves, 0-50000 years cal BP, Radiocarbon, 51, 1111-1150, 2009.
128. Roeckner, R., Giorgetta, M. A., Crueger, T., Esch, M., and Pongratz, J.: Historical and future anthropogenic emission pathways derived from coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations, Clim. Change, 105, 91-108, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9886-6, 2010.
129. Roth, R. And Joos, F.: A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene 14C and CO2 records: implications of data and model uncertainties, Clim. Past, 9, 1879-1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013, 2013.
130. Rozanov, E.: Physical Meteorological Observatory Davos World Radiation Center, PMIP4 PMOD-14C solar forcing data, Mendeley Data, v1, https://doi.org/10.17632/99tkc93yr.1, 2017.
131. Ruddiman, W. F., Fuller, D. Q., Kutzbach, J. E., Tzedakis, P. C., Kaplan, J. O., Ellis, E. C., Vavrus, S. J., Roberts, C. N., Fyfe, R., He, F., Lemmen, C., and Woodbridge, J.: Late Holocene climate: Natural or anthropogenic Rev. Geophys., 54, 93-118, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000503, 2016.
132. Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 33-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011.
133. Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-185-2012, 2012.
134. Schmidt, G. A., Annan, J. D., Bartlein, P. J., Cook, B. I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A. N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L.-B., and Yiou, P.: Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Clim. Past, 10, 221-250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014.
135. Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Mann, M. E., Tett, S. F. B., and Fuentes, J. D.: Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past millennium, J. Climate, 26, 6954-6973, 2013.
136. Schurer, A. P., Tett, S. F. B., and Hegerl, G. C.: Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium, Nat. Geosci., 7, 104-108, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2040, 2014.
137. Shapiro, A. I., Schmutz, W., Rozanov, E., Schoell, M., Haberreiter, M., Shapiro, and Nyeki, S.: A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing, Astron. Astrophys., 529, A67, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201016173, 2011.
138. Sheng, J. And Zwiers, F.: An improved scheme for time-dependent boundary conditions in atmospheric general circulation models, Clim. Dynam., 14, 609-613, 1998.
139. Shindell, D. T, Schmidt, G. A., Mann, M. E., Rind, D., and Waple, A.: Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum, Science, 294, 2149-2152, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1064363, 2001.
140. Sicre, M.-A., Khodri, M., Mignot, J., Eiriksson, J., Knudsen, K. L., Ezat, U., Closset, I., Nogues, P., and Massé, G.: Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the subpolar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5526-5530, 2013.
141. Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., Layman, L., Maselli, O., McGwire, K., Pasteris, D., Dahl-Jensen, D., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B., Edwards, R., MulVaney, R., and Kipfstuhl, S.: A new bipolar ice core record of volcanism from WAIS Divide and NEEM and implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1151-1169, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018603, 2013.
142. Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow, F., Büntgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F., MulVaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M., Schüpbach, S., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.: Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years, Nature, 523, 543-549, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565, 2015.
143. Smerdon, J. E.: Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments, WIREs Climate Change, 3, 63-77, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.149, 2012.
144. Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., Cook, E. R., and Seager, R.: Bridging Past and Future Climate across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study, J. Climate, 28, 3212-3231, 2015.
145. Smil, V.: Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects, Praeger, Santa Barbara, CA, 178 pp., 2010.
146. Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Haigh, J. D.: Solar Irradiance Variability and Climate, Ann. Rev. Astron. Astrophys., 51, 311-351, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-astro-082812-141007, 2013.
147. Steinhilber, F., Abreu, J. A., Beer, J., Brunner, I., Christl, M., Fischer, H., Heikkilä, U., Kubik, P. W., Mann, M., McCracken, K. G., Miller, H., Miyahara, H., Oerter, H., and Wilhelms, F.: 9400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 5967-5971, 2012.
148. Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Fasullo, J., and Brady, E.: ";El Niño Like"; Hydroclimate Responses to Last Millennium Volcanic Eruptions, J. Climate, 29, 2907-2921, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0239.1, 2016.
149. Stocker, B. D., Feissli, F., Strassmann, K. M., Spahni, R., and Joos, F.: Past and future carbon fluxes from land use change, shifting cultivation and wood harvest, Tellus B, 66, 23188, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23188, 2014.
150. Stoffel, M., Khodri, M., Corona, C., Guillet, S., Poulain, V., Bekki, S., Guiot, J. Luckman, B. H., Oppenheimer, C., Lebas, N., Beniston, M., and Masson-Delmotte, V.: Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1500 years, Nat. Geosci., 8, 784-788, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2526, 2015.
151. Stommel, H. And Stommel, E.: VolcanoWeather: The story of 1816, the year without a summer, Seven Seas Press, Newport, RI, 177 pp., 1983.
152. Strandberg, G., Kjellström, E., Poska, A., Wagner, S., Gaillard, M.-J., Trondman, A.-K., Mauri, A., Davis, B. A. S., Kaplan, J. O., Birks, H. J. B., Bjune, A. E., Fyfe, R., Giesecke, T., Kalnina, L., Kangur, M., Van der Knaap, W. O., Kokfelt, U., Kunes, P., Lataowa, M., Marquer, L., Mazier, F., Nielsen, A. B., Smith, B., Seppä, H., and Sugita, S.: Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation, Clim. Past, 10, 661-680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014.
153. Sundberg, R., Moberg, A., and Hind, A.: Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium-Part 1: Theory, Clim. Past, 8, 1339-1353, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012.
154. Swingedouw, D., Terray, L. Cassou, C., Voldoire, A., Salas-Mélia, D., and Servonnat, J.: Natural forcing of climate during the last millennium: fingerprint of solar variability, Clim. Dynam., 36, 1349-1364, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0803-5, 2011.
155. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
156. Thébault, E., Finlay, C. C., and Toh, H.: International Geomagnetic Reference Field: The 12th generation, Earth Planet. Space, 67, 158, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-015-0313-0, 2015.
157. Thomason, L. W., Ernest, N., Millán, L., Rieger, L., Bourassa, A., Vernier, J.-P., Manney, G., Luo, B., Arfeuille, F., and Peter, T.: A global, space-based stratospheric aerosol climatology: 1979 to 2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-91, in review, 2017.
158. Timmreck, C.: Modeling the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions, WIREs Clim. Change, 3, 545-564, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.192, 2012.
159. Timmreck, C., Lorenz, S. J., Crowley, T. J., Kinne, S., Raddatz, T. J., Thomas, M. A., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Limited temperature response to the very large AD 1258 volcanic eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040083, 2009.
160. Tingley, M., Craigmile, P. F., Haran, M., Li, B., Mannshardt, E., and Rajaratnam, B.: On Discriminating between GCM Forcing Configurations Using Bayesian Reconstructions of Late-Holocene Temperatures, J. Climate, 28, 8264-8281, 2015.
161. Thuillier, G., Hersé, M., Labs, D., Foujols, T., Peetermans, W., Gillotay, D., Simon, P. C., and Mandel, H.: The Solar Spectral Irradiance from 200 to 2400 nm as Measured by the SOLSPEC Spectrometer from the Atlas and Eureca Missions, Sol. Phys., 214, 1-22, 2003.
162. Toohey, M. And Sigl, M.: Volcanic stratospheric sulphur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-31, in review, 2017 (data available at: https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/eVolv2kv2).
163. Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Sigl, M., Stordal, F., and Svensen, H.: Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages, Clim. Change, 136, 401-412, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7, 2015.
164. Toohey, M., Stevens, B., Schmidt, H., and Timmreck, C.: Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0): An idealized forcing generator for climate simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4049-4070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016, 2016.
165. Usoskin, I. G., Alanko-Huotari, K., Kovaltsov, G. A., and Mursula, K.: Heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays: Monthly reconstruction for 1951-2004, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A12108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011250, 2005.
166. Usoskin, I. G., Horiuchi, K., Solanki, S., Kovaltsov, G. A., and Bard, E.: On the common solar signal in different cosmogenic isotope data sets, J. Geophys. Res., 114, A03112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JA013888, 2009.
167. Usoskin, I. G., Hulot, G., Gallet, Y., Roth, R., Licht, A., Joos, F., Kovaltsov, G. A., Thebault, E., and Khokhlov, A.: Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity, Astron. Astrophys., 562, L10, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201423391, 2014.
168. Usoskin, I. G., Kovaltsov, G. A., Lockwood, M., Mursula, K., Owens, M., and Solanki, S. K.: A new calibrated sunspot group series since 1749: statistics of active day fractions, Solar Phys., 291, 2685-2708, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-015-0838-1, 2015.
169. Usoskin, I. G., Gallet, Y., Lopes, F., Kovaltsov, G. A., and Hulot, G.: Solar activity during the Holocene: The Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for grand minima and maxima, Astron. Astrophys., 587, A150, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201527295, 2016.
170. Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I. G.: Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astron. Astrophys., 531, A6, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011.
171. Vonmoos, M., Beer, J., and Muscheler, R.: Large variations in Holocene solar activity: constraints from 10B in the Greenland Ice Core Project ice core, J. Geophys. Res., 111, A10105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011500, 2006.
172. Wang, J., Emile-Geay, J., Guillot, D., Smerdon, J. E., and Rajaratnam, B.: Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions, Clim. Past, 10, 1-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1-2014, 2014.
173. Wilson, R., Anchukaitis, K., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E., D'Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., Zhang, P., and Zorita, E.: Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 134, 1-18, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005, 2016.
174. Woods, T., Chamberlin, P. C., Harder, J.W., Hock, R. A., Snow, M., Eparvier, F. G., Fontenla, J., McClintock, W. E., and Richard, E. C.: Solar Irradiance Reference Spectra (SIRS) for the 2008 Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI), Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036373, 2009.
175. Wright, J. T.: Do we know of any Maunder minimum stars, Astron. J., 128, 1273-1278, 2004.
176. Wu, C.-J.: Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, SATIRE-M reconstruction of spectral solar irradiance over the Holocene, https://doi.org/10.17617/3.11, 2017.
177. Xoplaki, E., Fleitmann, D., Izdebski, A., Luterbacher, J., Wagner, S., Zorita, E., Telelis, I., and Toreti, A.: The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium; a review of evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 136, 229-252, 2016.
178. Yeo, K. L., Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., and Glassmeier, K. H.: Reconstruction of total and spectral solar irradiance from 1974 to 2013 based on KPVT, SoHOMDI, and SDOHMI observations, Astron. Astrophys., 570, A85, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201423628, 2014.
179. Yeo, K. L., Ball, W. T., Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., Unruh, Y. C., and Morrill, J.: UV solar irradiance in observations and the NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 120, 6055-6070, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021277, 2015.
180. Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Rubino, A., Lorenz, S., Lohmann, K., Krüger, K., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions, Clim. Dynam., 39, 419-444, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1167-1, 2012.
181. Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C., Bothe, O., Lorenz, S. J., Hegerl, G., Graf, H.-F., Luterbacher, J., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 4090-4106, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50229, 2013.
182. Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Lehner, F., Ortega, P., Raible, C. C., and Swingedouw, D.: Reconciling reconstructed and simulated features of the winter Pacific/North American pattern in the early 19th century, Clim. Past, 11, 939-958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, 2015.
183. Zanchettin, D., Khodri, M., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Schmidt, A., Gerber, E. P., Hegerl, G., Robock, A., Pausata, F. S. R., Ball, W. T., Bauer, S. E., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S. S., LeGrande, A. N., Mann, G. W., Marshall, L., Mills, M., Marchand, M., Niemeier, U., Poulain, V., Rozanov, E., Rubino, A., Stenke, A., Tsigaridis, K., and Tummon, F.: The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701-2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016.
184. Zon, R. And Sparhawk, W. N.: Forest Resources of the World, McGraw-Hill, New York, 986 pp., 1923.