The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

Geoscientific Model Development

Volumn 9, Issue 9, 2016, Pages 3427-3446

  Notz, Dirk ^a   Jahn, Alexandra ^b   Holland, Marika ^c   Hunke, Elizabeth ^d   Massonnet, François ^e,f   Stroeve, Julienne ^g,h   Tremblay, Bruno ⁱ   Vancoppenolle, Martin ^j  

^a MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^c NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^d LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^e BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER   (Spain)

^f UNIVERSITÉ CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN   (Belgium)

^g National Snow and Ice Data Center   (United States)

^h UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

ⁱ MCGILL UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^j CNRS   (France)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; MOMENTUM; PROJECT DESIGN; RESEARCH WORK; SEA ICE; SIMULATION; STANDARD (REFERENCE);

EID: 84977175441     PISSN: 1991959X     EISSN: 19919603     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-3427-2016     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (36)

1. Armour, K. C. and Bitz, C. M.: Observed and projected trends in Antarctic sea ice, vol. 13 of US Clivar Variations, 12-19, 2015.
2. Balaji, V., Taylor, K., Cinquini, L., DeLuca, C., Denvil, S., Elkington, M., Guglielmo, F., Guilyardi, E., Juckes, M., Kharin, S., Lautenschlager, M., Lawrence, B., andWilliams, D.: Global Data Infrastructure Requirements for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., in preparaion, 2016.
3. Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937-1958, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
4. Gagné, M.-E., Gillett, N. P., and Fyfe, J. C.: Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice extent over the past 50 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2014GL062231, doi:10.1002/2014GL062231, 2015.
5. Goessling, H. F., Jung, T., Klebe, S., Baeseman, J., Bauer, P., Chen, P., Chevallier, M., Dole, R., Gordon, N., Ruti, P., Bradley, A., Bromwich, D. H., Casati, B., Chechin, D., Day, J. J., Massonnet, F., Mills, B., Renfrew, I., Smith, G., and Tatusko, R.: Paving the way for the Year of Polar Prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00270.1, 2015.
6. Gough, W. A.: Model tuning and its impact on modelled climate change response: Hudson Bay sea ice, a case study, Can. Geogr., 45, 300-305, doi:10.1111/j.1541-0064.2001.tb01490.x, 2001.
7. Griffies, S. M., Danabasoglu, G., Durack, P. J., Adcroft, A. J., Balaji, V., Böning, C.W., Chassignet, E. P., Curchitser, E., Deshayes, J., Drange, H., Fox-Kemper, B., Gleckler, P. J., Gregory, J. M., Haak, H., Hallberg, R. W., Hewitt, H. T., Holland, D. M., Ilyina, T., Jungclaus, J. H., Komuro, Y., Krasting, J. P., Large, W. G., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., McDougall, T. J., Nurser, A. J. G., Orr, J. C., Pirani, A., Qiao, F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., Treguier, A. M., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valdivieso, M., Winton, M., and Yeager, S. G.: Experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-77, in review, 2016.
8. Haumann, F. A., Notz, D., and Schmidt, H.: Anthropogenic influence on recent circulation-driven Antarctic sea ice changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8429-8437, doi:10.1002/2014GL061659, 2014.
9. Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1095-1107, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1, 2009.
10. Ivanova, N., Pedersen, L. T., Tonboe, R. T., Kern, S., Heygster, G., Lavergne, T., Sørensen, A., Saldo, R., Dybkjær, G., Brucker, L., and Shokr, M.: Inter-comparison and evaluation of sea ice algorithms: towards further identification of challenges and optimal approach using passive microwave observations, The Cryosphere, 9, 1797-1817, doi:10.5194/tc-9-1797-2015, 2015.
11. Koenigk, T., Devasthale, A., and Karlsson, K.-G.: Summer Arctic sea ice albedo in CMIP5 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1987-1998, doi:10.5194/acp-14-1987-2014, 2014.
12. Kovacs, K. M., Lydersen, C., Overland, J. E., and Moore, S. E.: Impacts of changing sea-ice conditions on Arctic marine mammals, Marine Biodiversity, 41, 181-194, doi:10.1007/s12526-010-0061-0, 2010.
13. Laidler, G. J., Ford, J. D., Gough, W. A., Ikummaq, T., Gagnon, A. S., Kowal, S., Qrunnut, K., and Irngaut, C.: Travelling and hunting in a changing Arctic: assessing Inuit vulnerability to sea ice change in Igloolik, Nunavut, Climatic Change, 94, 363-397, doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9512-z, 2008.
14. Lemke, P., Hibler III, W. D., Flato, G., Harder, M., and Kreyscher, M.: On the improvement of sea-ice models for climate simulations: the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project, Ann. Glaciol., 25, 183-187, 1997.
15. Liu, M. and Kronbak, J.: The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe, J. Transp. Geogr., 18, 434-444, 2010.
16. Mahlstein, I., Gent, P. R., and Solomon, S.: Historical Antarctic mean sea ice area, sea ice trends, and winds in CMIP5 simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 5105-5110, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50443, 2013.
17. Massonnet, F., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Bitz, C. M., Philippon-Berthier, G., Holland, M. M., and Barriat, P.-Y.: Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice, The Cryosphere, 6, 1383-1394, doi:10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012, 2012.
18. Mauritsen, T., Stevens, B., Roeckner, E., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J., Klocke, D., Matei, D., Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D., Pincus, R., Schmidt, H., and Tomassini, L.: Tuning the climate of a global model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 4, M00A01, doi:10.1029/2012MS000154, 2012.
19. Meier, W. and Notz, D.: A note on the accuracy and reliability of satellite-derived passive microwave estimates of sea-ice extent, Clic arctic sea ice working group consensus document, World Climate Research Program, 2010.
20. Notz, D.: Sea-ice extent and its trend provide limited metrics of model performance, The Cryosphere, 8, 229-243, doi:10.5194/tc-8-229-2014, 2014.
21. Notz, D.: How well must climate models agree with observations?, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 373, 20140164, doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0164, 2015.
22. Notz, D., Haumann, A., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J., and Marotzke, J.: Arctic sea ice evolution as modeled by MPI-ESM, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 173-194, doi:10.1002/jame.20016, 2013.
23. O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, J., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-84, in review, 2016.
24. Purich, A., Cai, W., England, M. H., and Cowan, T.: Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes, Nat. Commun., 7, 10409, doi:10.1038/ncomms10409, 2016.
25. Santer, B. D., Thorne, P. W., Haimberger, L., Taylor, K. E., Wigley, T. M. L., Lanzante, J. R., Solomon, S., Free, M., Gleckler, P. J., Jones, P. D., Karl, T. R., Klein, S. A., Mears, C., Nychka, D., Schmidt, G. A., Sherwood, S. C., andWentz, F. J.: Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1703-1722, doi:10.1002/joc.1756, 2008.
26. Shu, Q., Song, Z., and Qiao, F.: Assessment of sea ice simulations in the CMIP5 models, The Cryosphere, 9, 399-409, doi:10.5194/tc-9-399-2015, 2015.
27. Smith, L. C. and Stephenson, S. R.: New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 4871-4872, doi:10.1073/pnas.1214212110, 2013.
28. Stephenson, S. R., Brigham, L.W., and Smith, L. C.: Marine accessibility along Russia's Northern Sea Route, Polar Geography, 37, 111-133, doi:10.1080/1088937X.2013.845859, 2014.
29. Stewart, E. J., Tivy, A., Howell, S. E. L., Dawson, J., and Draper, D.: Cruise Tourism and Sea Ice in Canada's Hudson Bay Region, Arctic, 63, 57-66, 2010.
30. Stroeve, J. and Notz, D.: Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models, Global Planet. Change, 135, 119-132, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.011, 2015.
31. Stroeve, J., Barrett, A., Serreze, M., and Schweiger, A.: Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness, The Cryosphere, 8, 1839-1854, doi:10.5194/tc-8-1839-2014, 2014.
32. Stroeve, J. C., Kattsov, V., Barrett, A., Serreze, M., Pavlova, T., Holland, M., and Meier, W. N.: Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16502, doi:10.1029/2012GL052676, 2012.
33. Swart, N. C., Fyfe, J. C., Hawkins, E., Kay, J. E., and Jahn, A.: Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends, Nature Clim. Change, 5, 86-89, doi:10.1038/nclimate2483, 2015.
34. Turner, J., Bracegirdle, T. J., Phillips, T., Marshall, G. J., and Hosking, J. S.: An Initial Assessment of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 1473-1484, doi:10.1175/JCLID-12-00068.1, 2013.
35. Tynan, E.: Arctic ecosystems: Effects of sea-ice loss, Nature Clim. Change, 5, 621-621, doi:10.1038/nclimate2708, 2015.
36. Vancoppenolle, M., Meiners, K. M., Michel, C., Bopp, L., Brabant, F., Carnat, G., Delille, B., Lannuzel, D., Madec, G., Moreau, S., Tison, J.-L., and van der Merwe, P.: Role of sea ice in global biogeochemical cycles: emerging views and challenges, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 79, 207-230, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.04.011, 2013.