Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

Nature Geoscience

Volumn 6, Issue 5, 2013, Pages 339-346

  Ahmed, Moinuddin ^a   Anchukaitis, Kevin J ^b,c   Asrat, Asfawossen ^d   Borgaonkar, Hemant P ^e   Braida, Martina ^f   Buckley, Brendan M ^b   Büntgen, Ulf ^g   Chase, Brian M ^h,i   Christie, Duncan A ^j,k   Cook, Edward R ^b   Curran, Mark A J ^l,m   Diaz, Henry F ⁿ   Esper, Jan ^o   Fan, Ze Xin ^p   Gaire, Narayan P ^q   Ge, Quansheng ^r   Gergis, Joëlle ^s   González Rouco, J Fidel ^t   Goosse, Hugues ^u   Grab, Stefan W ^v   Graham, Nicholas ^w   Graham, Rochelle ^w   Grosjean, Martin ^x   Hanhijärvi, Sami T ^y   Kaufman, Darrell S ^z   Kiefer, Thorsten ^aa   Kimura, Katsuhiko ^ab   Korhola, Atte A ^y   Krusic, Paul J ^ac   Lara, Antonio ^j,k   Lézine, Anne Marie ^ad   Ljungqvist, Fredrik C ^ac   Lorrey, Andrew M ^ae   Luterbacher, Jürg ^af   Masson Delmotte, Valérie ^ag   McCarroll, Danny ^ah   McConnell, Joseph R ^ai   McKay, Nicholas P ^z   Morales, Mariano S ^aj   Moy, Andrew D ^l,m   Mulvaney, Robert ^ak   Mundo, Ignacio A ^aj   Nakatsuka, Takeshi ^al   Nash, David J ^v,am   Neukom, Raphael ^g   Nicholson, Sharon E ^an   Oerter, Hans ^ao   Palmer, Jonathan G ^ap,aq   Phipps, Steven J ^aq   Prieto, Maria R ^ah   Rivera, Andres ^ar   Sano, Masaki ^al   Severi, Mirko ^as   Shanahan, Timothy M ^at   Shao, Xuemei ^r   Shi, Feng ^au   Sigl, Michael ^ai   Smerdon, Jason E ^b   Solomina, Olga N ^av   Steig, Eric J ^aw   Stenni, Barbara ^f   Thamban, Meloth ^ax   Trouet, Valerie ^ay   Turney, Chris S M ^aq   Umer, Mohammed ^d   van Ommen, Tas ^l,m   Verschuren, Dirk ^az   Viau, Andre E ^ba   Villalba, Ricardo ^aj   Vinther, Bo M ^bb   Von Gunten, Lucien ^aa   Wagner, Sebastian ^bc   Wahl, Eugene R ^bd   Wanner, Heinz ^x   Werner, Johannes P ^af   White, James W C ^be   Yasue, Koh ^bf   Zorita, Eduardo ^bc   more..

^a FEDERAL URDU UNIVERSITY OF ARTS   (Pakistan)

^b Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

^c WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION   (United States)

^d ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY   (Ethiopia)

^e INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY   (India)

^f UNIVERSITY OF TRIESTE   (Italy)

^g SWISS FEDERAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE WSL   (Switzerland)

^h UNIV MONTPELLIER   (France)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF BERGEN   (Norway)

^j UNIVERSIDAD AUSTRAL DE CHILE   (Chile)

^k UNIVERSITY OF CHILE   (Chile)

^l AUSTRALIAN ANTARCTIC DIVISION   (Australia)

^m UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

ⁿ NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^o JOHANNES GUTENBERG UNIVERSITY   (Germany)

^p KEY LABORATORY OF TROPICAL FOREST ECOLOGY   (China)

^q NEPAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Nepal)

^r INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHIC SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH   (China)

^s UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^t UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID   (Spain)

^u UNIVERSITÉ CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN   (Belgium)

^v UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND   (South Africa)

^w HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER   (United States)

^x UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

^y UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

^z NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^aa PAGES International Project Office   (Switzerland)

^ab FUKUSHIMA UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^ac STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^ad UNIVERSITÉ PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE   (France)

^ae NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF WATER AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (New Zealand)

^af JUSTUS LIEBIG UNIVERSITY   (Germany)

^ag LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^ah SWANSEA UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^ai DESERT RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (United States)

^aj INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE NIVOLOGÍA   (Argentina)

^ak BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY   (United Kingdom)

^al NAGOYA UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^am UNIVERSITY OF BRIGHTON   (United Kingdom)

^an FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^ao ALFRED WEGENER INSTITUTE FOR POLAR AND MARINE RESEARCH   (Germany)

^ap UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^aq UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^ar CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS CIENTÍFICOS CECS   (Chile)

^as UNIVERSITY OF FLORENCE   (Italy)

^at UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN   (United States)

^au INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^av INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY   (Russian Federation)

^aw UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^ax NATIONAL CENTRE FOR ANTARCTIC AND OCEAN RESEARCH   (India)

^ay UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA   (United States)

^az GHENT UNIVERSITY   (Belgium)

^ba UNIVERSITY OF OTTAWA   (Canada)

^bb UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

^bc INSTITUTE OF MATERIALS RESEARCH   (Germany)

^bd NOAA NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER   (United States)

^be UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^bf SHINSHU UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; COOLING; DECADAL VARIATION; EIGHTEENTH CENTURY; GLOBAL CHANGE; LITTLE ICE AGE; MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD; NINETEENTH CENTURY; RECONSTRUCTION; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

ARCTIC; ASIA; EUROPE; NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 84877307653     PISSN: 17520894     EISSN: 17520908     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1797     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Rockström, J. et al. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461, 472-475 (2009).
2. Snyder, C. W. The value of paleoclimate research in our changing climate. Clim. Change 100, 407-418 (2010).
3. Braconnot, P. et al. Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data. Nature Clim. Change 2, 417-424 (2012).
4. Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V. & Teng, H. Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Clim. Dyn. 38, 527 (2012).
5. Mann, M. E. et al. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 13252-13257 (2008).
6. Mann, M. E. et al. Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 326, 1256-1260 (2009).
7. Frank, D., Esper, J., Zorita, E. & Wilson, R. A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: A perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology. WIREs Clim. Change 1, 507-516 (2010).
8. Nicholson, S. E. et al. Temperature variability over Africa during the last 2000 years. The Holocene http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683613483618 (2013).
9. PAGES/Ocean2k Working Group. Synthesis of marine sediment-derived SST records for the past 2 millennia: First-order results from the PAGES/Ocean2k project. AGU Fall Meeting, abstr. PP11F-07 (American Geophysical Union, 2012).
10. Christiansen, B., Schmith, T. & Thejll, P. A surrogate ensemble study of climate reconstruction methods: Stochasticity and robustness. J. Clim. 22, 951-976 (2009).
11. Esper, J. & Frank, D. C. Divergence pitfalls in tree-ring research. Clim. Change 94, 261-266 (2009).
12. Jones, P. D. & Mann, M. E. Climate over past millennia. Rev. Geophys. 42, RG2002 (2004).
13. Crowley T. J. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289, 270-277 (2000). (Pubitemid 30469900)
14. Bauer, E., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V. & Huenerbein, A. Assessing climate forcings of the Earth system for the past millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1276 (2003).
15. Hegerl, G. C. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
16. Goosse, H., Crowley, T. J., Zorita, E., Ammann, C. E., Renssen, H. & Driesschaert, E. Modelling the climate of the last millennium: What causes the differences between simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L06710 (2005).
17. Steinhilber F. et al. 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 109, 5967-5971 (2012).
18. Kaufman, D. S. et al. Recent warming reverses long-term Arctic cooling. Science 325, 1236-1239 (2009).
19. Esper J. et al. Orbital forcing of tree-ring data. Nature Clim. Change 2, 862-866 (2012).
20. Renssen, H. Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., Masson-Delmotte, V. & Koç, N. The Holocene climate evolution in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere simulated by a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model. The Holocene 15, 951-964 (2005). (Pubitemid 41551769)
21. Fernández-Donado, L. et al. Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium. Clim. Past. 9, 393-421 (2013).
22. Goosse, H. et al. The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'. Clim. Dyn. 39, 2847-2866 (2012).
23. Lamb, H. H. The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclim. 1, 13-37 (1965).
24. Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K. & Diaz, H. F. Climate in Medieval time. Science 302, 404-405 (2003). (Pubitemid 37296256)
25. Matthews, J. A. & Briffa, K. R. The 'Little Ice Age': Re-evaluation of an evolving concept. Geogr. Ann. 87A, 17-36 (2005). (Pubitemid 40865023)
26. Ljungqvist, F. C., Krusic, P. J., Brattström, G. & Sundqvist, H. S. Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries. Clim. Past 8, 227-249 (2012).
27. Diaz, H. F. et al. Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate in Medieval times revisited. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92, 1487-1500 (2011).
28. Stouffer R. J., Manabe, S. & Bryan, K. Interhemispheric asymmetry in climate response to a gradual increase of atmospheric CO2. Nature 342, 660-662 (1989). (Pubitemid 20403266)
29. Jones, P. D., Lister, D. H., Osborn, T. J., Harpham, C., Salmon, M. & Morice, C. P. Hemispheric and large-scale land surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2010. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D05127 (2012).
30. Santer, B. D. et al. Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series. J. Geophy. Res. 105, 7337-7356 (2000).
31. Schmidt, G. A. et al. Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulation of the last millennium (v1.1). Geosci. Model Dev. 5, 185-191 (2012).
32. Hanhijärvi, S., Tingley, M. P. & Korhola, A. Pairwise comparisons to reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic region over the last 2000 years. Clim. Dyn. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1701-4 (2013).
33. Büntgen, U. et al. 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility. Science 331, 578-582 (2011).
34. Dobrovolný, P. et al. Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since ad 1500. Clim. Change 101, 69-107 (2010).
35. Cook, E. et al. Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C. E. Clim. Dyn. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382- 012-1611-x (2013).
36. Wahl, E. R. & Smerdon, J. E. Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06703 (2012).
37. Trouet, V. et al. A 1500-year reconstruction of annual mean temperature for temperate North America on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales. Environ. Res. Lett. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024008 (2013).
38. Neukom, R. et al. Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries. Clim. Dyn. 37, 35-51 (2011).
39. Neukom, R. & Gergis, J. Southern Hemisphere high-resolution palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years. The Holocene 22, 501-524 (2011).
40. Schneider, D. et al. Antarctic temperatures over the past two centuries from ice cores. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L16707 (2006).
41. Steig, E. et al. Recent climate and glacier changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years. Nature Geosci. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ ngeo1778 (2013).
42. Ebisuzaki, W. A method to estimate the statistical significance of a correlation when the data are serially correlated. J. Clim. 10, 2147-2153 (1997).
43. Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D. M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N. M. & Karlén, W. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low-and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433, 613-617 (2005). (Pubitemid 40282990)
44. Ljungqvist, F. C. A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia. Geogr. Ann. 92A, 339-351 (2010).
45. Hegerl, G. C., Crowley, T. J., Hyde, W. T. & Frame, D. J. Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature 440, 1029-1032 (2006).
46. Gao, C., Robock, A. & Ammann, C. Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 113, D23111 (2008).
47. Crowley, T. & Unterman, M. Technical details concerning development of a 1200-year proxy index for global volcanism. Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. 5, 1-28 (2012).
48. Shapiro, A. et al. A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing. Astron. Astrophys. 529, A67 (2011).
49. Vieira, L. E., Solanki, S. K., Krivov, A. V. & Usoskin, I. G. Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene. Astron. Astrophys. 531, A6 (2011).
50. Berger, A. L. Long-term variation of daily insolation and Quaternary climatic change. Quat. Res. 9, 139-167 (1978).