Drivers of North Atlantic Polar Front jet stream variability

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 35, Issue 8, 2015, Pages 1697-1720

  Hall, Richard ^a   Erdélyi, Róbert ^a   Hanna, Edward ^a   Jones, Julie M ^a   Scaife, Adam A ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD   (United Kingdom)

^b MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Drivers; Jet stream variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; Storm tracks

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; OCEANOGRAPHY; SEA ICE; SNOW; STORMS; SURFACE WATERS; TRUCK DRIVERS; VOLCANOES;

JET STREAMS; NONLINEAR INTERACTIONS; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES; SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; STORM TRACK; STRATOSPHERIC CIRCULATIONS;

FIGHTER AIRCRAFT;

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EXTRATROPICAL ENVIRONMENT; JET STREAM; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; POLAR FRONT; RAINFALL; STORM TRACK;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH); EUROPE; NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 85028208099     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.4121     Document Type: Review

References (230)

1. Alexander MA, Bhatt US, Walsh JE, Timlin MS, Miller JS, Scott JD. 2004. The atmospheric response to realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM during winter. J. Climatol. 17: 890-905.
2. Allen RJ, Zender CS. 2010. Effects of continental-scale snow albedo anomalies on the wintertime Arctic oscillation. J. Geophys. Res. 115: D23105, doi: 10.1029/2010JD014490.
3. Álvarez-García FJ, OrtizBevia MJ, CabosNarvaez WD. 2011. On the structure and teleconnections of North Atlantic decadal variability. J. Clim. 24: 2209-2223, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3478.1.
4. Ambaum MHP, Hoskins BJ, Stephenson DB. 2001. Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation? J. Clim. 14: 3495-3507.
5. Archer CL, Caldeira K. 2008. Historical trends in the jet streams. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35: L08803, doi: 10.1029/2008GL033614.
6. Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. 1989. Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle /QBO/weather relationship. Geophys. Res. Lett. 16(8): 863-866.
7. Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. 2001. Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science 294: 581-584.
8. Baldwin MP, Gray LJ, Dunkerton TJ, Hamilton K, Haynes PH, Randel WJ, Holton JR, Alexander MJ, Hirota I, Horinouchi T, Jones DBA, Kinnersley JS, Marquardt C, Sato K, Takahashi M. 2001. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Rev. Geophys. 39: 179-229.
9. Balmaseda MA, Ferranti L, Molteni F, Palmer TN. 2010. Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: implications for long-range predictions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136: 1655-1664.
10. Barnes EA. 2013. Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40: 4734-4739, doi: 10.1002/grl.50880.
11. Barnes EA, Polvani LM. 2013. Response of the midlatitude jets and of their variability to increased greenhouse gases in the CMIP5 models. J. Clim. 26: 7117-7135, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1.
12. Barnes EA, Dunn-Sigouin E, Masato G, Woollings T. 2014. Exploring trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41: 638-644, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058745.
13. Barnston AG, Livezey RE. 1987. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Weather Rev. 115: 1083-1126.
14. Barriopedro D, García-Herrera R, Huth R. 2008. Solar modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking. J. Geophys. Res. 113: D14118, doi: 10.1029/2008JD009789.
15. Bell CJ, Gray LJ, Charlton-Perez AJ, Joshi MM. 2009. Stratospheric communication of El-Niño teleconnections to European winter. J. Clim. 22: 4083-4096.
16. Benedict JJ, Lee S, Feldstein S. 2004. Synoptic view of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci. 61: 121-144.
17. Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Roeckner E. 2006. Storm tracks and climate change. J. Clim. 19: 3518-3543.
18. Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Keenlyside N. 2009. Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J. Clim. 22: 2276-2301.
19. Berckmans J, Woollings T, Demory M-E, Vidale P-L, Roberts M. 2013. Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 4: 34-40, doi: 10.1002/asl2.412.
20. Blackburn M, Methven J, Roberts N. 2008. Large-scale context for the UK floods in summer 2007. Weather 63(9): 280-288.
21. Blackmon ML. 1976. A climatological spectral study of the 500mb geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci. 33: 1607-1623.
22. Blüthgen J, Gerdes R, Werner M. 2012. Atmospheric response to the extreme Arctic sea ice conditions in 2007. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39: L02707, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050486.
23. Boer G, Hamilton K. 2008. QBO influence on extratropical predictive skill. Clim. Dyn. 31: 987-1000.
24. Booth BBB, Dunstone NJ, Halloran PR, Andrews T, Bellouin N. 2012. Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature 484: 228-232, doi: 10.1038/nature10946.
25. Brayshaw DJ, Hoskins B, Blackburn M. 2009. The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. Part I: Land-sea contrast and orography. J. Atmos. Sci. 66: 2539-2558.
26. Bretherton CS, Battisti DS. 2000. An interpretation of the results from atmospheric general circulation models forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27(6): 767-770.
27. Brönnimann S. 2007. Impact of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation on European climate. Rev. Geophys. 45: RG3003, doi: 10.1029/2006RG000199.
28. Brown RD, Derksen C. 2013. Is Eurasian October snow cover extent increasing? Environ. Res. Lett. 8: 024006, doi: 10.1088/1448-9326/8/2/024006.
29. Brown R, Derksen C, Wang L. 2010. A multi-data set analysis of variability and change in Arctic spring snow cover extent, 1967-2008. J. Geophys. Res. 115: D16111, doi: 10.1029/2010JD013975.
30. Budikova D. 2009. Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: a review. Global Planet. Change 68: 149-63.
31. Butler AH, Polvani LM. 2011. El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric sudden warmings: a reevaluation in the light of the observational record. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38: L13807, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048084.
32. Butler AH, Thompson DWJ, Heikes R. 2010. The steady-state atmospheric circulation response to climate change-like thermal forcings in a simple general circulation model. J. Clim. 23: 3474-3496.
33. Cagnazzo C, Manzini E. 2009. Impact of the stratosphere on the winter tropospheric teleconnections between ENSO and the North Atlantic and European region. J. Clim. 22: 1223-1238, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2549.1.
34. Callaghan TV, Johansson M, Brown RD, Groisman PY, Labba N, Radionov V, Barry RG, Bulygina ON, Essery RLH, Frolov DM, Golubev VN, Grenfell TC, Petrushina MN, Razuvaev VN, Robinson DA, Romanov P, Shindell D, Shmakin AB, Sokratov SA, Warren S, Yang D. 2011. The changing face of Arctic snow cover: a synthesis of observed and projected changes. Ambio 40: 17-31, doi: 10.1007/s13280-011-0212-y.
35. Camp CD, Tung K-K. 2007. The influence of the solar cycle and QBO on the late-winter stratospheric polar vortex. J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 1267-1283.
36. Cattiaux J, Vautard R, Cassou C, Yiou P, Masson-Delmotte V, Codron F. 2010. Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37: L20704, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044613.
37. Cattiaux J, Douville H, Peings Y. 2013. European temperatures in CMIP5: origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties. Clim. Dyn. 41: 2889-2907, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1731-y.
38. Cayan DR. 1992. Latent and sensible heat flux anomalies over the northern oceans: driving the sea surface temperature. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 22: 859-881.
39. Chang EKM, Lee S, Swanson KL. 2002. Storm track dynamics. J. Clim. 15: 2163-2183.
40. Chang EKM, Guo Y, Xia X. 2012. CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming. J. Geophys. Res. 117: D23118, doi: 10.1029/2012JD018578.
41. Charney JG. 1947. The dynamics of long waves in a baroclinic westerly current. J. Meteorol. 4(5): 135-162.
42. Cohen J, Entekhabi D. 1999. Eurasian snow cover variability and Northern Hemisphere climate predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26(3): 345-348.
43. Cohen J, Barlow M, Kushner PJ, Saito K. 2007. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and links with Eurasian land surface variability. J. Clim. 20: 5335-5343.
44. Cohen J, Foster J, Barlow M, Saito K, Jones J. 2010. Winter 2009-10: a case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37: L17707, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044256.
45. Cohen JL, Furtado JC, Barlow MA, Alexeev VA, Cherry JE. 2012. Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environ. Res. Lett. 7: 014007, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007.
46. Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD, Matsui N, Allan RJ, Yin X, Gleason BE Jr, Vose RS, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P, Brönnimann S, Brunet M, Crouthamel RI, Grant AN, Groisman PY, Jones PD, Kruk MC, KrugerAC MGJ, Maugeri M, Mok HY, Nordli Ø, Ross TF, Trigo RM, Wang XL, Woodruff SD, Worley SJ. 2011. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 1-28.
47. Czaja A, Frankignoul C. 2002. Observed impact of Atlantic SST anomalies on the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Clim. 15: 606-623.
48. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J-N, Vitart F. 2011. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 553-597.
49. Deser C, Magnusdottir G, Saravanan R, Phillips A. 2004. The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part II: Indirect components of the response. J. Clim. 17: 877-889.
50. Deser C, Tomas R, Alexander M, Lawrence D. 2010. The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. J. Clim. 23: 333-351.
51. Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H. 2012. Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim. Dyn. 38: 527-546, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
52. Douville H. 2009. Stratospheric polar vortex influence on Northern Hemisphere winter climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36: L18703, doi: 10.1029/2009GL039334.
53. Drévillon M, Cassou C, Terray L. 2003. Model study of the North Atlantic region atmospheric response to autumn tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 2591-2611, doi: 10.1256/qj.02.17.
54. Driscoll S, Bozzo A, Gray LJ, Robock A, Stenchikov G. 2012. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions. J. Geophys. Res. 117: D17105, doi: 10.1029/2012JD017607.
55. Dunn-Sigouin E, Son S-K. 2013. Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118: 1179-1188, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50143.
56. Eady ET. 1949. Long waves and cyclone waves. Tellus 1: 33-52.
57. Ebdon RA. 1975. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and its association with tropospheric circulation patterns. Meteorol. Mag. 104: 282-297.
58. Eichler TP, Gaggini N, Pan Z. 2013. Impacts of global warming on Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in the CMIP5 model suite. J. Geophys. Res. 118: 3919-3932, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50286.
59. Enfield DB, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Trimble PJ. 2001. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28(10): 2077-2080.
60. Evan AT, Vimont DJ, Heidinger AK, Kossin JP, Beenartz R. 2009. The role of aerosols in the evolution of tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies. Science 324: 778-781.
61. Fereday DR, Maidens A, Arribas A, Scaife AA, Knight JR. 2012. Seasonal forecasts of Northern Hemisphere winter 2009/10. Environ. Res. Lett. 7: 034031, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034031.
62. Fletcher CG, Hardiman SC, Kushner PJ, Cohen J. 2009. The dynamical response to snow cover perturbations in a large ensemble of atmospheric GCM integrations. J. Clim. 22: 1208-1222.
63. Folland CK, Parker DE, Colman AW, Washington R. 1999. Large scale modes of ocean surface temperature since the late nineteenth century. In Beyond El Niño: Decadal and Interdecadal Climate Variability, Navarra A (ed). Springer: New York, NY, 73-102.
64. Folland CK, Knight J, Linderholm HW, Fereday D, Ineson S, Hurrell JW. 2009. The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: past, present and future. J. Clim. 22: 1082-1103.
65. Francis JA, Vavrus SJ. 2012. Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39: L06801, doi: 10.1029/2012GL051000.
66. Francis JA, Chan W, Leathers DJ, Miller JR, Veron DE. 2009. Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36: L07503, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037274.
67. Frankignoul C, Hasselmann K. 1977. Stochastic climate models. Part 2. Applications to sea-surface temperature variability and thermocline variability. Tellus 29: 284-305.
68. Franzke C, Lee S, Feldstein SB. 2004. Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a breaking wave? J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 145-160.
69. Frierson DMW, Lu J, Chen G. 2007. Width of the Hadley Cell in simple and comprehensive general circulation models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34: L18804, doi: 10.1029/2007GL031115.
70. Fu Q, Johanson CM, Wallace JM, Reichler T. 2006. Enhanced mid-latitude tropospheric warming in satellite measurements. Science 312: 1179.
71. Garfinkel CI, Shaw TA, Hartmann DL, Waugh DW. 2012a. Does the Holton-Tan mechanism explain how the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation modulates the Arctic Polar Vortex? J. Atmos. Sci. 69: 1713-1733, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0209.1.
72. Garfinkel CI, Butler AH, Waugh DW, Hurwitz MM, Polvani LM. 2012b. Why might stratospheric sudden warmings occur with similar frequency in El Niño and La Niña winters? J. Geophys. Res. 117: D19106, doi: 10.1029/2012JD017777.
73. Geng Q, Sugi M. 2003. Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols - study with a high-resolution AGCM. J. Clim. 16: 2262-2274.
74. Gerber EP, Polvani LM. 2009. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in a relatively simple AGCM: the importance of stratospheric variability. J. Clim. 22: 1920-1933.
75. Gerber EP, Vallis GK. 2009. On the zonal structure of the North Atlantic Oscillation and annular modes. J. Atmos. Sci. 66: 332-352.
76. Gerber EP, Orbe C, Polvani LM. 2009. Stratospheric influence on the tropospheric circulation revealed by idealized ensemble forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36: L24801, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040913.
77. Gerber EP, Butler A, Calvo N, Charlton-Perez A, Giorgetta M, Manzini E, Perlwitz J, Polvani LM, Sassi F, Scaife AA, Shaw TA, Son S-W, Watanabe S. 2012. Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93(6): 845-859.
78. Gillett NP, Fyfe JC. 2013. Annular mode changes in the CMIP5 simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40: 1189-1193, doi: 10.1002/grl.50249.
79. Gillett NP, Zwiers FW, Weaver AJ, Stott PA. 2003. Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure. Nature 422: 292-294.
80. Graversen RG, Mauritsen T, Tjernström M, Källén E, Svensson G. 2008. Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming. Nature 541(3): 53-56.
81. Gray LJ, Beer J, Geller M, Haigh JD, Lockwood M, Matthes K, Cubasch U, Fleitmann D, Harrison G, Hood L, Luterbacher J, Meehl GA, Shindell D, van Geel B, White W. 2010. Solar influences on climate. Rev. Geophys. 48: RG4001, doi: 10.1029/2009RG000282.
82. Gray LJ, Scaife AA, Mitchell DM, Osprey S, Ineson S, Hardiman S, Buthcart N, Knight J, Sutton R, Kodera K. 2013. A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118: 13405-13420, doi: 10.1002/2013JD020062.
83. Gritsun A, Branstator G. 2007. Climate response using a three-dimensional operator based on the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 2558-2575, doi: 10.1175/JAS3943.1.
84. Haarsma RJ, Hazeleger W. 2007. Extratropical atmospheric response to equatorial Atlantic cold tongue anomalies. J. Clim. 20: 2076-2091, doi: 10.1175/JCLI4130.1.
85. Haarsma RJ, Selton F, van Oldenborgh GJ. 2013. Anthropogenic changes of the thermal and zonal flow structure over Western Europe and Eastern North Atlantic in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Clim. Dyn. 41: 2577-2588, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1734-8.
86. Haigh JD, Winning AR, Toumi R, Harder JW. 2010. An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate. Nature 467: 696-699, doi: 10.1038/nature09426.
87. Hamilton K. 1998. Effects of an imposed Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a comprehensive troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci. 55: 2393-2418.
88. Hannachi A, Barnes EA, Woollings T. 2012. Behaviour of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations. Clim. Dyn. 41: 995-1007, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1560-4.
89. Harder JW, Fontenla JM, Pilewskie P, Richard EC, Woods TN. 2009. Trends in solar spectral irradiance variability in the visible and infrared. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36: L07801, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036797.
90. Hardiman SC, Kushner PJ, Cohen J. 2008. Investigating the ability of general circulation models to capture the effects of Eurasian snow cover on winter climate. J. Geophys. Res. 113: D21123, doi: 10.1029/2008D010623.
91. Held IM, Hou AY. 1980. Nonlinear axially symmetric circulations in a nearly inviscid atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci. 37: 515-533.
92. Held IM, Ting M, Wang H. 2002. Northern winter stationary waves: theory and modeling. J. Clim. 15: 2125-2144.
93. Holton JR, Tan H-S. 1980. The influence of the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the global circulation at 50mb. J. Atmos. Sci. 37: 2200-2208.
94. Honda M, Inoue J, Yamane S. 2009. Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36: L08707, doi: 10.1029/2008GL037079.
95. Hopsch S, Cohen J, Dethloff K. 2012. Analysis of a link between fall Arctic sea ice concentration and atmospheric patterns in the following winter. Tellus A 64: 18624, doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.18624.
96. Hoskins BJ, Valdes PJ. 1990. On the existence of storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 47: 1854-1864.
97. Hoskins BJ, James IN, White GH. 1983. The shape, propagation and mean-flow interaction of large scale weather systems. J. Atmos. Sci. 40: 1595-1612.
98. Hurrell JW. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and relationships to regional temperature and precipitation. Science 269: 676-679.
99. Ineson S, Scaife AA. 2009. The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Niño. Nat. Geosci. 2: 32-36, doi: 10.1038/NGEO381.
100. Ineson S, Scaife AA, Knight JR, Manners JC, Dunstone NJ, Gray LJ, Haigh JD. 2011. Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Nat. Geosci. 4: 753-757, doi: 10.1038/NGEO1282.
101. IPCC. 2013. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. In Contributions of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
102. Jaiser R, Dethloff K, Handorf D, Rinke A, Cohen J. 2012. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation. Tellus A 64: 11595, doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595.
103. Jones GS, Lockwood M, Stott PA. 2012. What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes? J. Geophys. Res. 117: D05103, doi: 10.1029/2011JD017013.
104. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deavon D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77: 437-471.
105. Karpechko AY, Manzini E. 2012. Stratospheric influence on tropospheric climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117: D05133, doi: 10.1029/2011JD017036.
106. Keeley SPE, Sutton RT, Shaffrey LC. 2012. The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1774-1783, doi: 10.1002/qj.1912.
107. Kidston J, Gerber EP. 2010. Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37: L09708, doi: 10.1029/2010GL042873.
108. Knight JR, Allan RJ, Folland CK, Vellinga M, Mann ME. 2005. A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L20708, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024233.
109. Knight JR, Folland CK, Scaife AA. 2006. Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: L17706, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026242.
110. Kodera K, Kuroda Y. 2002. Dynamical response to the solar cycle. J. Geophys. Res. 107(D24): 4749, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002224.
111. Kodera K, Yamazaki K, Chiba M, Shibata K. 1990. Downward propagation of upper stratospheric mean zonal wind perturbation to the troposphere. Geophys. Res. Lett. 17(9): 1263-1266.
112. Krishnamurti TN. 1961. The subtropical jet stream of winter. J. Meteorol. 18: 172-191.
113. Krivova NA, Balmaceda L, Solanki SK. 2007. Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux. Astron. Astrophys. 467: 335-346, doi: 10.1051/0004-6361:20066725.
114. Kryjov VN, Park C-K. 2007. Solar modulation of the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation impact on the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34: L10701, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028015.
115. Kug J-S, Jin F-F. 2009. Left-hand rule for synoptic eddy feedback on low-frequency flow. J. Geophys. Res. 36(5): L05709, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036435.
116. Kumar A, Perlwitz J, Eischeid J, Quan X, Xu T, Zhang T, Hoerling M, Jha B, Wang W. 2010. Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37: L21701, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045022.
117. Kunz T, Fraedrich K, Lunkeit F. 2009. Synoptic scale wave breaking and its potential to drive NAO-like circulation dipoles: a simplified GCM approach. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135: 1-19.
118. Kushnir Y, Robinson WA, Chang P, Robertson AW. 2006. The physical basis for predicting Atlantic sector seasonal-to-interannual climate variability. J. Clim. 19: 5949-5970.
119. Labitzke K. 1987. Sunspots, the QBO and the stratospheric temperature in the North Polar region. Geophys. Res. Lett. 14: 535-537.
120. Labitzke K, van Loon H. 1988. Association between the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO and the atmosphere. Part 1: The troposphere and the stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. 50: 197-206.
121. Lambert SJ, Fyfe JC. 2006. Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Clim. Dyn. 26: 713-728.
122. Lee S, Kim H-K. 2003. The dynamical relationship between subtropical and eddy-driven jets. J. Atmos. Sci. 60: 1490-1503.
123. Lee W-J, Mak M. 1996. The role of orography in the dynamics of storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 53: 1737-1750.
124. Leith C. 1975. Climate response and fluctuation dissipation. J. Atmos. Sci. 32: 2022-2026.
125. Li Y, Lau N-C. 2012a. Impact of ENSO on the Atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic in late winter-role of transient eddies. J. Clim. 25: 320-342, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00037.1.
126. Li Y, Lau N-C. 2012b. Contributions of downstream eddy development to the teleconnection between ENSO and the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. J. Clim. 25: 4993-5010, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00377.1.
127. Li Y, Lau N-C. 2013. Influences of ENSO on stratospheric variability, and the descent of stratospheric perturbations into the lower troposphere. J. Clim. 26: 4725-4748, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00581.1.
128. Limpasuvan V, Thompson DWJ, Hartmann DL. 2004. The life cycle of the Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warmings. J. Clim. 17: 2584-2596.
129. Liu J, Curry JA, Wang H, Song M, Horton RM. 2012. Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109: 4074-4079, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109.
130. Lockwood M. 2010. Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum. Proc. R. Soc. A 466: 303-329, doi: 10.1098/rspa.2009.0519.
131. Lockwood M, Fröhlich C. 2007. Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. Proc. R. Soc. A 463: 2447-2460.
132. Lockwood M, Harrison RG, Woollings T, Solanki SK. 2010a. Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? Environ. Res. Lett. 5: 024001, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001.
133. Lockwood M, Bell C, Woollings T, Harrison RG, Gray LJ, Haigh JD. 2010b. Top-down solar modulation of climate: evidence for centennial-scale change. Environ. Res. Lett. 5: 034008, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034008.
134. Lorenz EN. 1963. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20: 130-148.
135. Lorenz DJ, DeWeaver ET. 2007. Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations. J. Geophys. Res. 112: D10119, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008087.
136. Lu J, Vecchi GA, Reichler T. 2007. Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34: L06805, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028443.
137. Lu J, Chen G, Frierson DMW. 2008. Response of the zonal mean atmospheric circulation to El Niño versus global warming. J. Clim. 21: 5835-5851, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2200.1.
138. Madden RA. 1976. Estimates of the natural variability of time-averaged sea-level pressure. Mon. Weather Rev. 104: 942-952.
139. Magnusdottir G, Deser C, Saravanan R. 2004. The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part I: Main features and storm track characteristics of the response. J. Clim. 17: 857-876.
140. Mann ME, Emanuel KA. 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS 87(24): 233-244.
141. Manzini E, Giorgetta MA, Esch M, Kornblueh L, Roeckner E. 2006. The influence of sea surface temperatures on the northern winter stratosphere: ensemble simulations with the MAECHAM 5 model. J. Clim. 19: 3863-3881.
142. Marshall AG, Scaife AA. 2009. Impact of the QBO on surface winter climate. J. Geophys. Res. 114: D18110, doi: 10.1029/2009JD011737.
143. Marshall AG, Scaife AA, Ineson S. 2009. Enhanced seasonal prediction of European winter warming following volcanic eruptions. J. Clim. 22: 6168-6180.
144. Masato G, Hoskins BJ, Woollings T. 2013. Winter and summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models. J. Clim. 26: 7044-7059, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00466.1.
145. Matsueda M. 2011. Predictability of Euro-Russian blocking in summer of 2010. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38: L06801, doi: 10.1029/2010GL046557.
146. Matsuno T. 1971. A dynamical model of the stratospheric sudden warming. J. Atmos. Sci. 28: 1479-1494.
147. Matthes K, Langematz U, Gray LJ, Kodera K, Labitzke K. 2004. Improved 11-year solar signal in the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (FUB-CMAM). J. Geophys. Res. 109: D06101, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004012.
148. Moore GWK, Renfrew IA, Pickart RS. 2013. Multidecadal mobility of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Clim. 26: 2453-2466, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D_12-00023.1.
149. Morganstern O, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfiled MP, Cugnet D, Deushi M, Dhomse SS, Garcia RR, Gettelman A, Gillet NP, Hardiman SC, Jumelet J, Kinnison DE, Lamarque J-F, Lott F, Marchand M, Michou M, Nakamura T, Olivie D, Peter T, Plummer D, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Saint-Martin D, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Sigmond M, Smale D, Teyssedre H, Tian W, Voloire A, Yamashita Y. 2009. Anthropogenic forcing of the northern annular mode in CCMVal-2 models. J. Geophys. Res. 115: D00M03, doi: 10.1029/2009JD013347.
150. Nakamura H, Sampe T, Tanimoto Y, Shimpo A. 2004. Observed associations among storm tracks, jet streams and midlatitude oceanic fronts. In Earth's Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction. Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 147, Wang C, Xie S-P, Carton JA (eds). AGU: Washington, DC, 329-345, doi: 10.1029/147GM18.
151. National Climate Information Centre. 2012. UK seasonal weather summary, summer 2012. Weather 67(10): 267.
152. National Snow and Ice Data Center. 2012. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (accessed 30 November 2012).
153. Newson RL. 1973. Response of a general circulation model of the atmosphere to removal of the Arctic ice-cap. Nature 241: 39-40, doi: 10.1038/241039b0.
154. O'Gorman PA. 2010. Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 107: 19176-19180.
155. Orsolini YJ, Kvamstø NG. 2009. Role of Eurasian snow cover in wintertime circulation: decadal simulations forced with satellite observations. J. Geophys. Res. 114: D19108, doi: 10.1029/2009JD012253.
156. Orsolini YJ, Senan R, Benestad RE, Melsom A. 2012. Autumn response to the 2007 low Arctic sea ice extent in coupled ocean-atmosphere hindcasts. Clim. Dyn. 38: 2437-2448.
157. Overland JE, Wang M. 2010. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus A 62: 1-9.
158. Overland JE, Wang M. 2013. When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free? Geophys. Res. Lett. 40: 2097-2101, doi: 10.1002/grl.50316.
159. Panetta RL. 1993. Zonal jets in wide baroclinically unstable regions: persistence and scale selection. J. Atmos. Sci. 50(14): 2073-2106.
160. Panetta RL, Held IM. 1988. Baroclinic eddy fluxes in a one-dimensional model of quasi-geostrophic turbulence. J. Atmos. Sci. 45(22): 3354-3365.
161. Park H, Walsh JE, Kim Y, Nakai T, Ohata T. 2013. The role of declining Arctic sea ice in recent decreasing terrestrial Arctic snow depths. Polar Sci. 7: 174-187.
162. Pascoe CL, Gray LJ, Scaife AA. 2006. A GCM study of the influence of equatorial winds on the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: L06825, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024715.
163. Peings Y, Saint-Martin D, Douville H. 2012. A numerical sensitivity study of the influence of Siberian snow on the Northern Annular Mode. J. Clim. 25: 592-607.
164. Peings Y, Brun E, Mauvais V, Douville H. 2013. How stationary is the relationship between Siberian snow and Arctic Oscillation over the 20th century? Geophys. Res. Lett. 40: 1-6, doi: 10.1029/2012GL054083.
165. Peng S, Robinson WA, Li S, Hoerling MP. 2005. Tropical Atlantic SST forcing of coupled North Atlantic seasonal responses. J. Clim. 18: 480-496.
166. Perlwitz J, Harnik N. 2003. Observational evidence of a stratospheric influence on the troposphere by planetary wave reflection. J. Clim. 16: 3011-3026.
167. Petoukhov V, Semenov VA. 2010. A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res. 115: D21111, doi: 10.1029/2009JD013568.
168. Petoukhov V, Rahmstorf S, Petri S, Schellnhuber HJ. 2013. Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 110(14): 5336-5341, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222000110.
169. Philander SG. 1989. El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press: London.
170. Plumb RA, Semeniuk K. 2003. Downward migration of extratropical zonal wind anomalies. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 108(D7): 4223, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002773.
171. Reed RJ, Campbell WJ, Rasmussen LA, Rogers RG. 1961. Evidence of a downward propagating annual wind reversal in the equatorial stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 66: 813-818.
172. Rex DF. 1950. Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effect upon regional climate. 1. An aerological study of blocking action. Tellus 2: 196-211.
173. Rigor IG, Wallace JM, Colony RL. 2002. Response of sea ice to the Arctic Oscillation. J. Clim. 15: 2648-2663.
174. Rivière G. 2011. A dynamical interpretation of the poleward shift of the jet streams in global warming scenarios. J. Atmos. Sci. 68: 1253-1272.
175. Rivière G, Orlanski I. 2007. Characteristics of the Atlantic storm-track eddy activity and its relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 241-266, doi: 10.1175/JAS3850.1.
176. Robock A, Mao J. 1992. Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 12: 2405-2408.
177. Rodwell MJ, Folland CK. 2002. Atlantic air-sea interaction and seasonal predictability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128: 1413-1443.
178. Rodwell MJ, Rowell DP, Folland CK. 1999. Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature 398: 320-323.
179. Rozanov EV, Egorova TA, Shapiro AI, Schmutz WK. 2012. Modeling of the atmospheric response to a strong decrease of the solar activity. In Comparative Magnetic Minima: Characterizing Quiet Times in the Sun and Stars. Proceedings IAU Symposium, Vol. 286, Mandrini CH, Webb DF (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
180. Saito K, Cohen J, Entekhabi D. 2001. Evolution of atmospheric response to early-season Eurasian snow cover anomalies. Mon. Weather Rev. 129: 2746-2760.
181. Scaife AA, James IN. 2000. Response of the stratosphere to interannual variability of tropospheric planetary waves. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126: 275-297.
182. Scaife AA, Knight JR, Vallis GK, Folland CK. 2005. A stratospheric influence on the winter NAO and North Atlantic surface climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L18715, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023226.
183. Scaife AA, Woollings T, Knight J, Martin G, Hinton T. 2010. Atmospheric blocking and mean biases in climate models. J. Clim. 23: 6143-6152.
184. Scaife AA, Copsey D, Gordon C, Harris C, Hinton T, Keeley S, O'Neill A, Roberts M, Williams K. 2011. Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38: L23703, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049573.
185. Scaife AA, Spangehl T, Fereday DR, Cusbasch U, Langematz U, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Michou M, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG. 2012. Climate change projections and stratosphere-troposphere interaction. Clim. Dyn. 38: 2089-2097.
186. Scaife AA, Ineson S, Knight JR, Gray L, Kodera K, Smith DM. 2013. A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40(2): 434-439, doi: 10.1002/grl.50099.
187. Scaife AA, Arribas A, Blockley E, Brookshaw A, Clark RT, Dunstone N, Eade R, Fereday D, Folland CK, Gordon M, Hermanson L, Knight JR, Lea DJ, MacLachlan C, Maidens A, Martin M, Peterson AK, Smith D, Vellinga M, Wallace E, Waters J, Williams A. 2014. Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41: 2514-2519, doi: 10.1002/2014GL059637.
188. Scherhag R. 1952. Die explosionsartigen Stratosphärenerwärmungen des Spätwinters 1951-1952. Ber. Dtsch. Wetterdienst (US Zone) 38: 51-63.
189. Schneider B, Latif M, Schmittner A. 2007. Evaluation of different methods to assess model projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. J. Clim. 20: 2121-2132.
190. Screen JA. 2013. Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation. Environ. Res. Lett. 8: 044015, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044015.
191. Screen JA, Simmonds I. 2010. Increasing fall-winter energy loss from the Arctic Ocean and its role in Arctic temperature amplification. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37: L16707, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044136.
192. Screen JA, Simmonds I. 2013. Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40: 959-964, doi: 10.1002/grl.50174.
193. Screen JA, Deser C, Simmonds I. 2012. Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39: L10709, doi: 10.1029/2012GL051598.
194. Screen JA, Simmonds I, Deser C, Tomas R. 2013. The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss. J. Clim. 26: 1230-1248, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D_12_00063.1.
195. Screen JA, Deser C, Simmonds I, Tomas R. 2014. Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979-2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability. Clim. Dyn. 43: 333-344, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1830-9.
196. Seierstad IA, Bader J. 2009. Impact of a projected future Arctic sea ice reduction on extratropical storminess and the NAO. Clim. Dyn. 33: 937-943.
197. Singarayer JS, Bamber JL, Valdes PJ. 2006. Twenty-first-century impacts from a declining Arctic sea ice cover. J. Clim. 19: 1109-1125.
198. Snape TJ, Forster PM. 2014. Decline of Arctic seas ice: evaluation and weighting of CMIP5 projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 119: 546-554, doi: 10.1002/2013JD020593.
199. Stenchikov G, Hamilton K, Robock A, Ramaswamy V, Schwarzkopf MD. 2004. Arctic oscillation response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the SKYHI general circulation model with a realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res. 109: D03112, doi: 10.1029/2003/JD003699.
200. Stenchikov G, Hamilton K, Stouffer RJ, Robock A, Ramaswamy V, Santer B, Graf H-F. 2006. Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 111: D07107, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006286.
201. Strey ST, Chapman WL, Walsh JE. 2010. The 2007 sea ice minimum: impacts on the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in late autumn and early winter. J. Geophys. Res. 115: D23103, doi: 10.1029/2009JD013294.
202. Stroeve J, Kattsov V, Barrett A, Serreze M, Pavlova T, Holland MM, Meier WN. 2012. Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39: L16502, doi: 10.1029/2012GL052676.
203. Stroeve JC, Markus T, Boisvert L, Miller J, Barrett A. 2014. Changes in Arctic melt season and implications for sea ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41: 1216-1225, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058951.
204. Sutton RT, Dong B. 2012. Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s. Nat. Geosci. 5: 788-792, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1595.
205. Sutton RT, Hodson DLR. 2005. Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science 309: 115-118, doi: 10.1126/science.1109496.
206. Takaya K, Nakamura H. 2008. Precursory changes in planetary wave activity for midwinter surface pressure anomalies over the Arctic. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 86(3): 415-427.
207. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM. 1998. The Arctic Oscillation signature in wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25: 1297-1300.
208. Thorncroft CD, Hoskins BJ, McIntyre ME. 1993. Two paradigms of baroclinic life-cycle behaviour. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 119: 17-55.
209. Toniazzo T, Scaife AA. 2006. The influence of ENSO on winter North Atlantic climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: L24704, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027881.
210. Ulbrich U, Pinto JG, Kupper H, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M. 2008. Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations. J. Clim. 21: 1669-1679.
211. Uppala SM, Kållberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, da Costa Bechtold V, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragsavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Hólm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf J-F, Morcrette J-J, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Vitterbo P, Woollen J. 2005. The Era-40 re-analysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 2961-3012.
212. Vallis GK, Gerber EP. 2008. Local and hemispheric dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation, annular patterns and the zonal index. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 44: 184-212, doi: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2007.04.003.
213. Veryard RG, Ebdon RA. 1961. Fluctuations in tropical stratospheric winds. Meteorol. Mag. 90: 125-143.
214. Visbeck M, Chassignet EP, Curry RG, Delworth TL, Dickson RR, Krahmann K. 2003. The ocean's response to North Atlantic oscillation variability. In The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact. Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 134, Hurrell J, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (eds). AGU: Washington, DC, 113-146.
215. de Vries H, Woollings T, Anstey J, Haarsma RJ, Hazeleger W. 2013. Atmospheric blocking and its relation to jet changes in a future climate. Clim. Dyn. 41: 2643-2654, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1699-7.
216. Walker GT, Bliss EW. 1932. World weather V. Mem. R. Meteorol. Soc. 4(36): 54-83.
217. Wang M, Overland JE. 2009. A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36: LO7502, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037820.
218. Wang M, Overland JE. 2012. A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: an update from CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39: L18501, doi: 10.1029/2012GL052868.
219. Wang Y-M, Lean JL, Sheeley NR. 2005. Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713. Astrophys. J. 625: 522-538.
220. Watson PAG, Gray LJ. 2014. How does the Quasi-biennial Oscillation affect the stratospheric polar vortex? J. Atmos. Sci. 71: 391-409, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-096.1.
221. Waugh DW, Polvani LM. 2010. Stratospheric polar vortices. In The Stratosphere: Dynamics, Transport and Chemistry. Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 190, Polvani LM, Sobel AH, Waugh DW (eds). AGU: Washington, DC, 43-57, doi: 10.1029/2009GM000887.
222. Williams GP. 1979. Planetary circulations: 2. The Jovian quasi-geostrophic regime. J. Atmos. Sci. 36: 932-968.
223. Wittman MAH, Charlton AJ, Polvani LM. 2005. On the meridional structure of annular modes. J. Clim. 18: 2119-2122.
224. Woollings T. 2011. Ocean effects of blocking. Science 334: 612-613.
225. Woollings T, Blackburn M. 2012. The North Atlantic jet stream under climate change and its relation to the NAO and EA patterns. J. Clim. 25: 886-902.
226. Woollings T, Hannachi A, Hoskins B. 2010a. Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136: 856-868.
227. Woollings T, Hannachi A, Hoskins B, Turner A. 2010b. A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing. J. Clim. 23: 1291-1307.
228. Woollings T, Gregory JM, Pinto JG, Reyers M, Brayshaw DJ. 2012. Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nat. Geosci. 5: 313-317, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1438.
229. Yin JH. 2005. A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L18701, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023684.
230. Zhang R, Delworth TL, Sutton R, Hodson DLR, Dixon KW, Held IM, Kushnir Y, Marshall J, Ming Y, Msadek R, Robson J, Rosati AJ, Ting M-F, Vecchi GA. 2013. Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability? J. Atmos. Sci. 70: 1135-1144, doi: 10.1175/JAS_D_12_0331.1.