Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Volumn 111, Issue 7, 2006, Pages

  Stenchikov, Georgiy ^a   Hamilton, Kevin ^b   Stouffer, Ronald J ^c   Robock, Alan ^a   Ramaswamy, V ^c   Santer, Ben ^d   Graf, Hans F ^e  

^a RUTGERS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^c PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOLS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; TROPOSPHERE; UPPER ATMOSPHERE;

AEROSOL COMPOSITION; ARCTIC OSCILLATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FORCING; CLIMATE MODELING; GLOBAL WARMING; STRATOSPHERE; TROPOSPHERE; VOLCANIC AEROSOL; VOLCANIC ERUPTION;

ASIA; EURASIA; EUROPE; NORTHERN EUROPE;

EID: 33646798442     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006286     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Adams, J. B., M. E. Mann, and C. M. Ammann (2003), Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing, Nature, 426, 274-278.
2. Ammann, C., G. Meehl, W. Washington, and C. Zender (2003), A monthly and latitudinally varying forcing data set in simulations of 20th century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(12), 1657, doi:10.1029/2003GL016875.
3. Andronova, N., E. Rozanov, F. Yang, M. Schlesinger, and G. Stenchikov (1999), Radiative forcing by volcanic aerosols from 1850 through 1994, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 16,807-16,826.
4. Basnett, T., and D. Parker (1997), Development of the global mean sea level pressure data set GMSLP2, Clim. Res. Tech. Note 79, Hadley Cent., Met Office, Exeter, U.K.
5. Benedict, J., S. Lee, and S. Feldstein (2004), Synoptic view of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 121-144.
6. Black, R. (2002), Stratospheric forcing of surface climate in the arctic oscillation, J. Clim., 15, 268-277.
7. Black, R. X., and B. A. McDaniel (2004), Diagnostic case studies of the northern annular mode, J. Clim., 17, 3990-4004.
8. Broccoli, A., K. Dixon, T. Delworth, T. Knutson, and R. Stouffer (2003), Twentieth-century temperature arid precipitation trends in ensemble climate simulations including natural and anthropogenic forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D24), 4798, doi:10.1029/2003JD003812.
9. Castanheira, J. M., and H.-F. Graf (2003), North Pacific-North Atlantic relationships under stratospheric, control?, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D1), 4036, doi:10.1029/2002JD002754.
10. Delworth, T. L., et al. (2006), GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models, Part 1: Formulation and simulation characteristics, J. Clim., 19(5), 643-674.
11. Frantzke, C., S. Lee, and S. Feldstein (2004), Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a breaking wave?, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 145-160.
12. Gillett, N. (2005), Northern Hemisphere circulation, Nature, 437, doi:10.1038/437496a, 496.
13. Gnanadesikan, A., et al. (2006), GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models, Part 2: The baseline ocean simulation, J. Clim., 19(5), 675-697.
14. Graf, H.-F., and C. Timmreck (2001), Aerosol radiative forcing of the Laacher See volcano eruption, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 14,747-14,756.
15. Graf, H.-F., I. Kirchner, A. Robock, and I. Schult (1993), Pinatubo eruption winter climate effects: Model versus observation, Clim. Dyn., 9, 81-93.
16. Groisman, P. Y. (1992), Possible regional climate consequences of the Pinatubo eruption: An empirical approach, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1603-1606.
17. Hansen, J., and S. Lebedeff (1988), Global surface air temperatures: Update through 1987, Geophys. Res. Lett., 15, 323-326.
18. Hansen, J. E., et al. (2002), Climate forcing in Goddard Institute for Space Studies S12000 simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D18), 4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.
19. Haynes, P. H., M. E. McIntyre, T. G. Shepherd, C. J. Marks, and K. P. Shine (1991), On the "downward" control of extratropical diabatic circulations by eddy induced mean zonal forces, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 651-680.
20. Humphreys, W. J. (1913), Volcanic dust and other factors in the production of climatic changes, and their possible relation to ice ages, J. Franklin Inst., 131-172.
21. Humphreys, W. J. (1940), Physics of the Air, 676 pp., Dover, Mineola, N. Y.
22. Hurrell, J. W., (1995), Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation, Science, 269, 676-679.
23. Jones, P. D., and A. Mobley (2003), Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001, J. Clim., 16, 206-223.
24. Jones, P. D., T. J. Osborn, K. R. Briffa, C. K. Folland, E. B. Horton, L. V. Alexander, D. E. Parker, and N. A. Rayner (2001), Adjusting for sampling density in grid box land and ocean surface temperature time series, J. Geophys. Res., 106(D4), 3371-3380.
25. Jones, P. D., A. Moberg, T. J. Osborn, and K. R. Briffa (2003), Surface climate responses to explosive volcanic eruptions seen in long European temperature records and mid-to-high latitude tree-ring density around the Northern Hemisphere, in Volcanism and the Earth's Atmosphere, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 139, edited by A. Robock and C. Oppenheimer, pp. 239-254, AGU, Washington, D. C.
26. Joshi, M. M., and K. P. Shine (2003), A GCM study of volcanic eruptions as a cause of increased stratospheric water vapor, J. Clim., 16, 3525-3534.
27. Kiehl, J. T., J. J. Hack, G. B. Bonan, B. A. Boville, D. L. Williamson, and P. J. Rasch (1998), The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: CCM3, J. Clim., 11, 1131-1149.
28. Kirchner, I., G. L. Stenchikov, H.-F. Graf, A. Robock, and J. C. Antuña (1999), Climate model simulation of winter warming and summer cooling following the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 19,039-19,055.
29. Kistler, R., et al. (2001), The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 247-267.
30. Knutson, T. R., T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, I. M. Held, J. Lu, D. V. Ramaswamy, D. Schwarzkopf, G. Stenchikov, and R. J. Stouffer (2006), Assessment of twentieth-century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models, J. Clim., in press.
31. Kodera, K. (1994), Influence of volcanic eruptions on the troposphere through stratospheric dynamical processes in the Northern Hemisphere winter, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 1273-1282.
32. Kodera, K., and Y. Kuroda (2000a), Tropospheric and stratospheric aspects of the arctic oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3349-3352.
33. Kodera, K., and Y. Kuroda (2000b), A mechanistic model study of slowly propagating coupled stratosphere-troposphere variability, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 12,361-12,370.
34. Labitzke, K. (1994), Stratospheric temperature changes after the Pinatubo eruption, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 56, 1027-1034.
35. Labitzke, K., and M. P. McCormick (1992), Stratospheric temperature increases due to Pinatubo aerosol, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 207-210.
36. Labitzke, K., B. Naujokat, and M. P. McCormick (1983), Temperature effects on the stratosphere of the April 4, 1982 eruption of El Chichón, Mexico, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10, 24-26.
37. L'Heureux, L., and D. Thompson (2006), Observed relationships between the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the extratropical zonal-mean circulation, J. Clim., 19(2), 276-287, doi:10.1175/JCLI3617.1.
38. Limpasuvan, V., D. J. W. Thompson, and D. L. Hartmann (2004), The life cycle of the Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warmings, J. Clim., 17, 2584-2596.
39. Mann, M. E., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and A. Clement (2005), Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical Pacific over the past 1000 years, J. Clim., 18, 447-456.
40. Miller, R. L., G. A. Schmidt, and D. Shindell (2006), Forced variations of annular modes in the 20th century IPCC AR4 simulations, J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2005JD006323, in press.
41. Mitchell, J. M., Jr. (1961), Recent secular changes of the global temperature, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 95, 235-250.
42. Newhall, C. G., and S. Self (1982), The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI): An estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 1231-1238.
43. Ohhashi, Y., and K. Yamazaki (1999), Variability of the Eurasian pattern and its interpretation by wave activity flux, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 77, 495-511.
44. Oman, L., A. Robock, G. Stenchikov, G. A. Schmidt, and R. Ruedy (2005), Climatic response to high latitude volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D13103, doi:10.1029/2004JD005487.
45. Osborn, T. J. (2004), Simulating the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: The roles of internal variability and greenhouse gas forcing, Clim. Dyn., 22, 605-623, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0405-1.
46. Ostermeier, G. M., and J. M. Wallace (2003), Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation-Northern Hemisphere annular mode during the twentieth century, J. Clim., 16, 336-341.
47. Parker, D. E., and J. K. L. Brownscombe (1983), Stratospheric warming following the El Chichón volcanic eruption, Nature, 301, 406-408.
48. Parker, D. E., C. K. Folland, and M. Jackson (1995), Marine surface temperature: Observed variations and data requirements, Clim. Change, 31, 559-600.
49. Perlwitz, J., and H.-F. Graf (1995), The statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere in winter, J. Clim., 8, 2281-2295.
50. Perlwitz, J., and H.-F. Graf (2001), Troposphere-stratosphere dynamic coupling under strong and weak polar vortex conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 271-274.
51. Perlwitz, J., and N. Harnik (2003), Observational evidence of a stratospheric influence on the troposphere by planetary wave reflection, J. Clim., 16, 3011-3026.
52. Quiroz, R. S. (1983), The isolation of stratospheric temperature change due to the El Chichón volcanic eruption from nonvolcanic signals, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 6773-6780.
53. Ramachandran, S., V. Ramaswamy, G. L. Stenchikov, and A. Robock (2000), Radiative impact of the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption: Lower stratospheric response, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 24,409-24,429.
54. Ramaswamy, V., M. D. Schwarzkopf, W. Randel, B. Santer, B. J. Soden, and G. Stenchikov (2006), Anthropogenic and natural influences in the evolution of lower stratospheric cooling, Science, 311, 1138-1141.
55. Randel, W. J., F. Wu, S. Oltmans, K. Rosenlof, and G. Nedoluha (2004), Interannual changes of stratospheric water vapor and correlations with tropical tropopause temperatures, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2133-2148.
56. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan (2003), Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D14), 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
57. Rind, D., J. Perlwitz, and P. Lonergan (2005), AO/NAO response to climate change: 1. Respective influences of stratospheric and tropospheric climate changes, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D12107, doi:10.1029/ 2004JD005103.
58. Robock, A. (2000), Volcanic eruptions and climate, Rev. Geophys., 38, 191-219.
59. Robock, A. (2003), Introduction: Mount Pinatubo as a test of climate feedback mechanisms, in Volcanism and the Earth's Atmosphere, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 139, edited by A. Robock and C. Oppenheimer, pp. 1-8, AGU, Washington, D. C.
60. Robock, A., and J. Mao (1992), Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 2405-2408.
61. Robock, A., and J. Mao (1995), The volcanic signal in surface temperature observations, J. Clim., 8, 1086-1103.
62. Sato, M., J. Hansen, M. P. McCormick, and J. Pollack (1993), Stratospheric aerosol optical depth, 1850-1990, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22,987-22,994.
63. Scaife, A., J. Knight, G. Vallis, and C. Folland (2005), A stratospheric influence on the winter NAO and North Atlantic surface climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18715, doi:10.1029/2005GL023226.
64. Shindell, D. T., G. A. Schmidt, R. L. Miller, and D. Rind (2001), Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to greenhouse gas, ozone, solar, and volcanic forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7193-7210.
65. Shindell, D. T., G. A. Schmidt, M. Mann, and G. Faluvegi (2004), Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D05104, doi:10.1029/2003JD004151.
66. Song, Y., and W. A. Robinson (2004), Dynamical mechanisms for stratospheric influences on the troposphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1711-1725.
67. Stenchikov, G., I. Kirchner, A. Robock, H.-F. Graf, J. C. Antuña, R. G. Grainger, A. Lambert, and L. Thomason (1998), Radiative forcing from the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 13,837-13,857.
68. Stenchikov, G., A. Robock, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, K. Hamilton, and S. Ramachandran (2002), Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption: Effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D24), 4803, doi:10.1029/2002JD002090.
69. Stenchikov, G., K. Hamilton, A. Robock, V. Ramaswamy, and M. D. Schwarzkopf (2004), Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Pinatubo Eruption in the SKYHI GCM with a realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D03112, doi:10.1029/2003JD003699.
70. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace (1998), The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1297-1300.
71. Walter, K., and H.-F. Graf (2005), The North Atlantic variability structure, storm tracks, and precipitation depending on the polar vortex strength, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1-10.
72. Wittman, M. A. H., L. M. Polvani, R. K. Scott, and A. J. Charlton (2004), Stratospheric influence on baroclinic lifecycles and its connection to the Arctic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L16113, doi:10.1029/2004GL020503.
73. Yang, F., and M. Schlesinger (2002), On the surface and atmospheric temperature changes following the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption: A GCM study, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D8), 4073, doi:10.1029/2001JD000373.
74. Yukimoto, S., et al. (2001), The new Meteorological Research Institute coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2): Model climate and variability, Pap. Meteorol. Geophys., 51, 47-88.