Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications

Advances in Marine Biology

Volumn 74, Issue , 2016, Pages 1-68

  Salinger, J ^a,b   Hobday, A J ^b   Matear, R J ^b   O'Kane, T J ^b   Risbey, J S ^b   Dunstan, P ^b   Eveson, J P ^b   Fulton, E A ^b   Feng, M ^b   Plaganyi E E ^b   Poloczanska, E S ^b   Marshall, A G ^c   Thompson, P A ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF AUCKLAND   (New Zealand)

^b CSIRO   (Australia)

^c BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Australia; Climate drivers; Decadal; El Ni o Southern Oscillation; Extremes; Forecasting; Indian Ocean Dipole; Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; Marine resources; Southern Annular Mode

Indexed keywords

ANTHOZOA;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DECADAL VARIATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EXTREME EVENT; INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE; MARINE RESOURCE;

AUSTRALIA; CORAL SEA; GREAT BARRIER REEF; QUEENSLAND;

AUSTRALIA; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CORAL REEF; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; EL NINO; FISHERY; FLOODING; FORECASTING; HEAT; INDIAN OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN; SEA; SEASON; TRENDS;

AUSTRALIA; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CORAL REEFS; DECISION SUPPORT TECHNIQUES; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FISHERIES; FLOODS; FORECASTING; HOT TEMPERATURE; INDIAN OCEAN; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; OCEANS AND SEAS; PACIFIC OCEAN; SEASONS;

EID: 84996565678     PISSN: 00652881     EISSN: 21625875     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1016/bs.amb.2016.04.002     Document Type: Chapter

References (242)

1. Allan, R.J., Heathcote, R.L., The 1982–83 drought in Australia. Glantz, M., Katz, R., Kranz, M., (eds.) The Societal Impacts Associated with the 1982–83 Worldwide Climatic Anomalies, 1987, UNEP, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 19–23.
2. Asseng, S., McIntosh, P.C., Wang, G., Khimashia, N., Optimal N fertiliser management based on a seasonal forecast. Eur. J. Agron. 38 (2012), 66–73.
3. Baehr, J., Piontek, R., Ensemble initialization of the oceanic component of a coupled model through bred vectors at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Geosci. Model Dev. 7 (2014), 453–461.
4. Bakun, A., Broad, K., Environmental ‘loopholes’ and fish population dynamics: comparative pattern recognition with focus on El Nino effects in the Pacific. Fish. Oceanogr. 12:4–5 (2003), 458–473.
5. Barnston, A.G., Mason, S.J., Evaluation of IRI's seasonal climate forecasts for the extreme 15% tails. Weather Forecast 26 (2011), 545–554, 10.1175/WAF-D-10-05009.1.
6. Barriopedro, D., Fisher, E.M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R.M., Garcia-Herrera, R., The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science 332 (2011), 220–224.
7. Beamish, R.J., Bouillon, D.R., Pacific salmon production trends in relation to climate. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 50 (1993), 1002–1016.
8. Beeden, R., Maynard, J.A., Marshall, P.A., Heron, S.F., Willis, B.L., A framework for responding to coral disease outbreaks that facilitates adaptive management. Environ. Manag. 49 (2012), 1–13.
9. Bell, J.D., Ganachaud, A., Gehrke, P.C., Griffiths, S.P., Hobday, A.J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Johnson, J.E., Le Borgne, R., Lehodey, P., Lough, J.M., Matear, R.J., Pickering, T.D., Pratchett, M.S., Sen Gupta, A., Senina, I., Waycott, M., Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3:6 (2013), 591–599, 10.1038/NCLIMATE1838.
10. Benthuysen, J., Feng, M., Zhong, L., Spatial patterns of warming off Western Australia during the 2011 Ningaloo Niño: quantifying impacts of remote and local forcing. Cont. Shelf Res. 91 (2014), 232–246.
11. Berkelmans, R., De'arth, G., Kininmonth, S., Skirving, W., A comparison of the 1998 and 2002 coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef: spatial correlations, patterns and predictions. Coral Reefs 23 (2004), 74–83.
12. Berkelmans, R., Oliver, J.K., Large scale bleaching of corals on the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs 18 (1999), 55–60.
13. Bijma, J., Faber, W.W.J., Hemleben, C., Temperature and salinity limits for growth and survival of some planktonic foraminifers in laboratory cultures. J. Foraminifer. Res. 20 (1990), 95–116.
14. Black, E.C., Upper lethal temperatures of some British Columbia freshwater fishes. J. Fish. Res. Board Can. 10 (1953), 196–210.
15. Blanchard, J.L., Anderson, K.H., Scott, F., Hintzen, N.T., Piet, G.J., Jennings, S., Evaluating targets and trade-offs among fisheries and conservation objectives using a multispecies size spectrum model. J. Appl. Ecol 51:3 (2014), 612–622, 10.1111/1365-2664.12238.
16. Boucharel, J., Dewitte, B., Garel, B., du Penhoat, Y., ENSOs non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts. Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 16 (2009), 453–473.
17. Boyd, P.W., Rynearson, T.A., Armstrong, E.A., Fu, F., et al. Marine phytoplankton temperature versus growth responses from polar to tropical waters—outcome of a scientific community-wide study. PLoS One, 8, 2013, e63091.
18. Brander, K., Mohn, R., Effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on recruitment of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 61:9 (2004), 1558–1564, 10.1139/f04-087.
19. Brander, K., Impacts of climate change on fisheries. J. Mar. Syst. 79 (2010), 389–402.
20. Brett, J.R., Tempering versus acclimation in the planting of speckled trout. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 70 (1941), 397–403.
21. Brett, J.R., Some lethal temperature relations of Algonquin Park fishes. Publ. Ontario Fish. Res. Lab. No. 63. Univ. of Toronto Studies Biol. Ser. No. 52, 1944, University of Toronto Press, Toronto.
22. Brewer, G.D., Thermal tolerance and resistance of the northern anchovy Engraulis mordax. Fish. Bull. 74 (1976), 433–445.
23. Brodeur, R.D., Fisher, J.P., Emmett, R.L., Morgan, C.A., Casillas, E., Species composition and community structure of pelagic nekton off Oregon and Washington under variable oceanographic conditions. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 298 (2005), 41–57.
24. Brodie, J., Enhancement of larval and juvenile survival and recruitment in Acanthatser planci from the effects of terrestrial runoff: a review. Mar. Freshw. Res. 43 (1992), 539–553.
25. Brown, J.N., Langlais, C., Sen Gupta, A., Projected sea surface temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific relative to the Warm Pool edge. Deep Sea Res. II 113 (2015), 47–58.
26. Bureau of Meteorology, Recording-Breaking La Niña Events: An Analysis of the La Niña life Cycle and the Impacts and Significance of the 2010–11 and 2011–12 La Niña Events in Australia. 2012, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia July 2012.
27. Burgman, R.J., Clement, A.C., Mitas, C.M., Chen, J., Esslinger, K., Evidence for atmospheric variability over the Pacific on decadal timescales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 2008, L01704.
28. Burkholder, J.M., Tomasko, D.A., Touchette, B.W., Seagrasses and eutrophication. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 350 (2007), 46–72.
29. Caddy, J.F., Garibaldi, L., Apparent changes in the trophic composition of world marine harvests: the perspective from the FAO capture database. Ocean Coast. Manag. 43 (2000), 615–655.
30. Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Weller, E., Wu, L., Ashok, K., Masumoto, K., Yamagata, T., Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming. Nature 510 (2014), 254–258.
31. Callaghan, J., Power, S., Variability and decline in the number of severe land-falling tropical cyclones over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century. Clim. Dyn. 37 (2011), 647–662.
32. Caputi, N., Chubb, C.F., Pearce, A., Environmental effects on recruitment of the western rock lobster, Panulirus cygnus. Mar. Freshw. Res. 52:8 (2001), 1167–1174.
33. Carpenter, S., Brock, W., Cole, J., Kitchell, J., Pace, M., Leading indicators of trophic cascades. Ecol. Lett. 11 (2008), 128–138.
34. Castillo-Jordán, C., Klaer, N.L., Tuck, G.N., Frusher, S.D., Cubillos, L.A., Tracey, S.R., Salinger, M.M., Coincident recruitment patterns of Southern Hemisphere fishes. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 73:2 (2016), 270–278.
35. Charney, J.G., Stern, M.E., On the stability on internal baroclinic jets in a rotating atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci. 19 (1961), 159–172.
36. Cloern, J.E., Hieb, K.A., Jacobson, T., Sanso, B., Di Lorenzo, E., Stacey, M.T., Largier, J.L., Meiring, W., Peterson, W.T., Powell, T.M., Winder, M., Jassby, A.D., Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large-scale climate forcing over the North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 2010, L21602.
37. Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. J. Hydrol. 375:3–4 (2009), 613–626.
38. Collie, J.S., Gifford, D.J., Steele, J.H., End-to-end foodweb control of fish production on Georges Bank. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 66 (2009), 2223–2232.
39. Collier, C.J., Villacorta Rath, A.C., Van Dijk, J., Takahashi, M., Waycott, M., Seagrass proliferation precedes mortality during hypo-salinity events: a stress-induced morphometric response. PLoS One 9:4 (2014), 1–11.
40. Collier, C.J., Waycott, M., McKenzie, L.J., Light thresholds derived from seagrass loss in the coastal zone of the northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Ecol. Indic. 23 (2012), 211–219.
41. Connell, S.D., Russell, B.D., Turner, D.J., Shepherd, S.A., Kildea, T., Miller, D., Airoldi, L., Cheshire, A., Recovering a lost baseline: missing kelp forests from a metropolitan coast. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 360 (2008), 63–72.
42. Cvitanovic, C., Crimp, S., Fleming, A., Bell, J., Howden, M., Hobday, A., Taylor, M., Cunningham, R., Linking adaptation science to action to build food secure and climate adapted Pacific Island communities. Clim. Risk Manag. 11 (2016), 53–62 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.01.003.
43. De Viron, O., Dickey, J.O., Ghil, M., Global modes of climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 (2013), 1832–1837.
44. De'ath, G., Fabricius, K.E., Sweatman, H., Puotinen, M., The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 109 (2012), 17995–17999.
45. Department of Climate Change, Climate Change. Risks to Australia's Coast: A First Pass National Assessment, 2009, Department of Climate Change, Canberra, Australia 978-1-921298-71-4 www.climatechange.gov.au Commonwealth of Australia, 168 pp.
46. Department of Climate Change, Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure. A Supplement to the First Pass National Assessment. 2011, Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Canberra, Australia 978-1-921299-62-9 Commonwealth of Australia, 20 pp.
47. Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., Teng, H., Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim. Dyn. 38 (2012), 527–546.
48. Deser, C., Phillips, A.S., Hurrell, J.W., Pacific interdecadal climate variability: linkages between the tropics and the north Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate 17 (2004), 3109–3124.
49. Diamond, H.J., Lorrey, A.M., Renwick, J.A., A Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone climatology and linkages to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. J. Climate 26 (2013), 3–25.
50. Doi, T., Behera, S.K., Yamagata, T., An interdecadal regime shift in rainfall predictability related to the Ningaloo Niño in the late 1990. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 120 (2015), 1388–1396, 10.1002/2014JC010562.
51. Dommenget, D., Jansen, M., Predictions of Indian Ocean SST indices with a simple statistical model: a null hypothesis. J. Climate 22 (2009), 4930–4938.
52. Eppley, R.W., Temperature and phytoplankton growth in the sea. Fish. Bull. 70:4 (1972), 1063–1085.
53. Eveson, J.P., Hobday, A.J., Hartog, J.R., Spillman, C.M., Rough, K.M., Seasonal forecasting of tuna habitat in the Great Australian Bight. Fish. Res. 170 (2015), 39–49.
54. Fabricius, K., Okaji, K., De'ath, G., Three lines of evidence to link outbreaks of the crown-of-thorns seastar Acanthaster planci to the release of larval food limitation. Coral Reefs 29 (2010), 593–605, 10.1007/s00338-010-0628-z.
55. FAO, Best practices in ecosystem modelling for informing an ecosystem approach to fisheries. FAO Fisheries Technical Guidelines for Responsible Fisheries. No. 4, Suppl. 2, 1–78, 2008.
56. FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2014: Opportunities and Challenges. 2014, FAO, Rome 223 pp.
57. Fasham, M.J., Modelling the marine biota. The global carbon cycle, NATO ASI Series. Series 1. Glob. Environ. Change 15 (1993), 1–599.
58. Fedorov, A., Philander, S., Is El Nino changing?. Science 288 (2000), 1997–2002.
59. Feely, R.A., Klinger, T., Newton, J.A., Chadsey, M., Scientific Summary of Ocean Acidification in Washington State Marine Waters: NOAA OAR Special Report., 2012.
60. Feng, M., Biastoch, A., Boning, C., Caputi, N., Meyers, G., Seasonal and interannual variations of upper ocean heat balance off the west coast of Australia. J. Geophys. Res., 113, 2008, C12025.
61. Feng, M., Hendon, H.H., Xie, S.-P., Marshall, A.G., Schiller, A., Kosaka, Y., Caputi, N., Pearce, A., Decadal increase in Ningaloo Niño since the late 1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42 (2015), 104–112.
62. Feng, M., McPhaden, M.J., Xie, S.-P., Hafner, J., La Niña forces unprecedented Leeuwin Current warming in 2011. Sci. Rep., 3, 2013, 1277.
63. Feng, M., Meyers, G., Pearce, A., Wijffels, S., Annual and interannual variations of the Leeuwin Current at 32°S. J. Geophys. Res., 108(C11), 2003, 3355.
64. Fiala, M., Oriol, L., Light-temperature interactions on the growth of Antarctic diatoms. Polar Biol. 10 (1989), 629–636.
65. Folland, C.K., Parker, D.E., Colman, A.W., Washington, R., Large Scale Modes of Ocean Surface Temperature Since the Late Nineteenth Century. 1998, Hadley Centre, UK Meteorological Office Clim. Res. Tech. Note CRTN 81, 45 pp.
66. Freitas, A.C.V., Frederiksen, J.S., Whelan, J., O'Kane, T.J., Ambrizzi, T., Observed and simulated inter-decadal changes in the structure of Southern hemisphere large-scale circulation. Clim. Dyn 45 (2015), 2993–3017, 10.1007/s00382-015-2519-z.
67. Fulton, E.A., Approaches to end-to-end ecosystem models. J. Mar. Syst. 81 (2010), 171–183.
68. Fulton, E.A., Interesting times: winners, losers, and system shifts under climate change around Australia. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 68:6 (2011), 1329–1342.
69. Fulton, E.A., Gorton, R., Adaptive Futures for SE Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture: Climate Adaptation Simulations. 2014, CSIRO, Australia 309 pp.
70. Fulton, E.A., Smith, A.D.M., Johnson, C.R., Effect of complexity on marine ecosystem models. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 253 (2003), 1–16.
71. Fulton, E.A., Smith, A.D.M., Punt, A.E., Which ecological indicators can robustly detect effects of fishing?. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 62 (2005), 540–551.
72. Garcia-Herrera, R., Diaz, H.F., Garcia, R.R., Prieto, M.R., Barriopedro, R., Moyano, R., Hernandez, E., A chronology of El Nino events from primary documentary sources in Northern Peru. J. Climate 21 (2008), 1948–1962.
73. Garrabou, J., Coma, R., Bensoussan, N., Bally, M., Chevaldonne, P., Cigliano, M., Diaz, D., Harmelin, J.G., Gambi, M.C., Kersting, D.K., Ledoux, J.B., Lejeusne, C., Linares, C., Marschal, C., Perez, T., Ribes, M., Romano, J.C., Serrano, E., Teixido, N., Torrents, O., Zabala, M., Zuberer, F., Cerrano, C., Mass mortality in Northwestern Mediterranean rocky benthic communities: effects of the 2003 heat wave. Glob. Chang. Biol. 15 (2009), 1090–1103.
74. 2 emissions scenarios. Science, 349(6243), 2015, 10.1126/science.aac4722.
75. Gerber, E.P., Voronin, S., Polvani, L.M., Testing the annular mode autocorrelation time scale in simple atmospheric general circulation models. Mon. Weather Rev. 136:4 (2008), 1523–1536.
76. Gershwin, L., Condie, S.A., Mansbridge, J.V., Richardson, A.J., Dangerous jellyfish blooms are predictable. J. R. Soc. Interface, 11, 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2013.1168.
77. Ghedini, G., Russell, B.D., Connell, S.D., Trophic compensation reinforces resistance: herbivory absorbs the increasing effects of multiple disturbances. Ecol. Lett. 18 (2015), 182–187.
78. Gillett, N.P., Kell, T.D., Jones, P.D., Regional climate impacts of the Southern Annular Mode. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 2006, L23704.
79. Glantz, M.H., Currents of Change: Impact of El Niño and La Niña on Climate and Society. 2001, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
80. Gleick, P.H., Climate change, hydrology, and water resources. Rev. Geophys. 27 (1989), 329–344.
81. Goddard, L., Hurrell, J.W., Kirtman, B.P., Murphy, J., Stockdale, T., Vera, C., Two time scales for the price of one (almost). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2012 (2012), 621–629.
82. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2014. 2014, GBRMPA, Townsville, Australia 311 pp.
83. Grech, A., Chartrand-Miller, K., Erftemeijer, P., Fonseca, M., McKenzie, L., Rasheed, M., Taylor, H., Coles, R., A comparison of threats, vulnerabilities and management approaches in global seagrass bioregions. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 2012, 024006.
84. Grise, K.M., Son, S.-W., Correa, G.J.P., Polvani, L.M., The response of extratropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere to stratospheric ozone depletion in the 20th century. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 15 (2014), 29–36.
85. Grose, M.R., Brown, J.N., Narsey, S., Brown, J.R., Murphy, B.F., Langlais, C., Gupta, A.S., Moise, A.F., Irving, D.B., Assessment of the CMIP5 global climate model simulations of the western tropical Pacific climate system and comparison to CMIP3. Int. J. Climatol. 34:12 (2014), 3382–3399.
86. Gu, D., Philander, S., Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and the extra-tropics. Science 275 (1997), 805–807.
87. Hartmann, D.L., Klein Tank, A.G.M., Rusticucci, M., Alexander, L.V., Brönnimann, S., Charabi, Y., Dentener, F.J., Dlugokencky, E.J., Easterling, D.J., Kaplan, A., Soden, B.J., Thorne, P.W., Wild, M., Zhai, P.M., Observations: atmosphere and surface. Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P.M., (eds.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 159–254.
88. Hayes, K.R., Dambacher, J.M., Thompson, P., Hosack, G.R., Dunstan, P., Bax, N.J., Fulton, E.A., Hartog, J., Hobday, A., Bradford, R., Foster, S., Hedge, P., Smith, D.C., Identifying biological indicators for managing oceanic ecosystems. Ecol. Indic. 57 (2015), 409–419.
89. Hewitt, C.D., Griggs, D.J., Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts (ENSEMBLES). Eos, 85(52), 2004, 566.
90. Hill, S.L., Watters, G.M., Punt, A.E., McAllister, M.K., Quéré, C.L., Turner, J., Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries. Fish Fish. 8 (2007), 315–336.
91. Hobday, A.J., Spillman, C.M., Eveson, J.P., Hartog, J.R., Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture. Fish. Oceanogr 25:S1 (2016), 45–56, 10.1111/fog.12083.
92. Hobday, A.J., Alexander, L.V., Perkins, S.E., Smale, D.A., Straub, S.C., Benthuysen, J., Burrows, M.T., Donat, M., Feng, M., Holbrook, N.J., Moore, P.J., Oliver, E.C.J., Scannell, H., Sen Gupta, A., Wernberg, T., A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves. Prog. Oceanogr. 141 (2016), 227–238, 10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014.
93. Hobday, A.J., Hartog, J.R., Spillman, C.M., Alves, O., Seasonal forecasting of tuna habitat for dynamic spatial management. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 68:5 (2011), 898–911.
94. Hobday, A.J., Hartog, J.R., Timmiss, T., Fielding, J., Dynamic spatial zoning to manage southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) capture in a multi-species longline fishery. Fish. Oceanogr. 19 (2010), 243–253.
95. Hobday, A.J., Maxwell, S.M., Forgie, J., McDonald, J., Darby, M., Seto, K., Bailey, H., Bograd, S.J., Briscoe, D.K., Costa, D.P., Crowder, L.B., Dunn, D.C., Fossette, S., Halpin, P.N., Hartog, J.R., Hazen, E.L., Lascelles, B.G., Lewison, R.L., Poulos, G., Powers, A., Dynamic ocean management: integrating scientific and technological capacity with law, policy and management. Stanford Environ. Law J. 33 (2014), 125–165.
96. Hodgkinson, J.A., Hobday, A.J., Pinkard, E.A., Climate adaptation in Australia's resource-extraction industries: ready or not?. Reg. Environ. Chang. 14:4 (2014), 1663–1678, 10.1007/s10113-014-0618-8.
97. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs. Mar. Freshw. Res. 50 (1999), 839–866.
98. Hoffman, M.J.E., Kalnay, E., Carton, J.A., Yang, S.-C., Use of breeding to detect and explain instabilities in the global ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 2009, L12608.
99. Holbrook, N.L., Bindoff, N.L., Interannual and decadal temperature variability in the Southwest Pacific Ocean between 1955 and 1988. J. Climate 10 (1997), 1035–1049.
100. Holbrook, N.J., Goodwin, I.D., McGregor, S., Molina, E., Power, S.B., ENSO to multi-decadal timescale changes in East Australian Current transports and Fort Denison sea level: Oceanic Rossby waves as the connecting mechanism. Deep Sea Res. II: Top. Stud. Oceanogr. 58 (2011), 547–558.
101. Hollowed, A., A'mar, T., Barbeaux, S., Bond, N., Ianelli, J., Spencer, P., Wilderbuer, T., Integrating ecosystem aspects and climate change forecasting into stock assessments. ASFC Quarterly Report Research Feature, July–August–September, 2011, NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.
102. Hollowed, A.B., Bond, N.A., Wilderbuer, T.K., Stockhausen, W.T., A'Mar, Z.T., Beamish, R.J., Overland, J.E., Schirripa, M.J., A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 66 (2009), 1584–1594.
103. Hollowed, A.B., Wooster, W.S., Variability of winter ocean conditions and strong year classes of Northeast Pacific groundfish. ICES Mar. Sci. Symp. 195 (1992), 433–444.
104. Hughes, T.P., Baird, A.H., Bellwood, D.R., Connolly, S.R., Folke, C., Grosberg, R., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jackson, J.B.C., Kleypas, J., Lough, J.M., Marshall, P., Nyström, M., Palumbi, S.R., Pandolfi, J.M., Rosen, B., Roughgarden, J., Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science 301 (2003), 929–933.
105. Ianelli, J., Holsman, K.K., Punt, A.E., Aydin, K., Multi-model inference for incorporating trophic and climate uncertainty into stock assessments. Deep Sea Res. II: Top. Stud. Oceanogr., 2015, 10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.04.002.
106. Ianelli, J.N., Hollowed, A.B., Haynie, A.C., Mueter, F.J., Bond, N.A., Evaluating management strategies for eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in a changing environment. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 68 (2011), 1297–1304.
107. ICES, Database Report of the Stomach Sampling Project 1991, 1997, ICES, Copenhagen 422 pp.
108. IMOS, IMOS National Science and Implementation Plan 2015–25. 2014, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
109. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Field, C.B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D.J., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M.D., Mach, K.L., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S.K., Tignor, M., Midgley, P.M., (eds.) A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, and New York, USA.
110. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Summary for policymakers. Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P.M., (eds.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 3–34.
111. ISRS (International Society for Reef Studies), Statement on Global Coral Bleaching in 1997–1998, 1998, International Society for Reef Studies December 1998. http://coralreefs.org/publications/briefing-papers/.
112. Jones, A.M., Berkelmans, R., Flood impacts in Keppel Bay, Southern Great Barrier Reef in the aftermath of cyclonic rainfall. PLoS One, 9(1), 2014, e84739.
113. Karoly, D., Hope, P., Jones, D., Decadal variations of the southern hemisphere circulation. Int. J. Climatol. 16:7 (1996), 723–738.
114. Kasahara, A., Simulation experiments for meteorological observing systems for GARP. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 53 (1972), 252–264.
115. Katz, R.W., Brown, B.G., Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Clim. Change 21:3 (1992), 289–302.
116. Kidston, J., Gerber, E.P., Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 2010, L09708.
117. Kirtman, B., Power, S.B., Adedoyin, J.A., Boer, G.J., Bojariu, R., Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Fiore, A.M., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G.A., Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schär, C., Sutton, R., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Vecchi, G., Wang, H.J., Near-term climate change: projections and predictability. Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P.M., (eds.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
118. Klaer, N.L., O'Boyle, R.N., Deroba, J.J., Wayte, S.E., Little, L.R., Alade, L.A., Rago, P.J., et al. How much evidence is required for acceptance of productivity regime shifts in fish stock assessments: are we letting managers off the hook?. Fish. Res. 168 (2015), 49–55.
119. Kleeman, R., McCreary, J., Klinger, B., A mechanism for the decadal variation of ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 (1999), 1743–1746.
120. Klyashtorin, L.B., Climate change and long-term fluctuations of commercial catches: the possibility of forecasting. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 410, 2001, FAO, Rome 86 pp.
121. Kravtsov, S., Dewar, W.K., Berloff, P., McWilliams, J.C., Ghil, M., A highly nonlinear coupled mode of decadal variability in a mid-latitude ocean-atmosphere model. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 43 (2007), 123–150.
122. Lehodey, P., Senina, I., Murtugudde, R., A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM)—modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations. Prog. Oceanogr. 78 (2008), 304–318.
123. Limpus, C.J., Nicholls, N., The Southern Oscillation regulates the annual numbers of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) breeding around northern Australia. Aust. Wildl. Res. 15 (1988), 157–161, 10.1071/wr9880157.
124. Link, J.S., Translating ecosystem indicators into decision criteria. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 62 (2005), 569–576.
125. Link, J.S., Yemane, D., Shannon, L.J., Coll, M., Shin, Y.-J., Hill, L., Borges, M.F., Relating marine ecosystem indicators to fishing and environmental drivers: an elucidation of contrasting responses. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 67 (2010), 787–795.
126. Litzow, M.A., Mueter, F.J., Hobday, A.J., Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability. Glob. Chang. Biol. 20 (2014), 38–50.
127. Liu, Z., Dynamics of interdecadal climate variability: a historical perspective. J. Climate 25 (2012), 1963–1995.
128. Lombard, F., Labeyrie, L., Michel, E., Spero, H.J., Lea, D.W., Modelling the temperature dependent growth rates of planktonic foraminifera. Mar. Micropaleontol. 70 (2009), 1–7.
129. Longstaff, B.J., Dennison, W.C., Seagrass survival during pulsed turbidity events: the effects of light deprivation on the seagrasses Halodule pinifolia and Halophila ovalis. Aquat. Bot. 65 (1999), 105–121, 10.1016/s0304-3770(99)00035-2.
130. Lorenz, E.N., A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus, 17, 1965, 321, 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1965.tb01424.x.
131. Lotze, H.K., Lenihan, H.S., Bourque, B.J., Bradbury, R.H., Cooke, R.G., Kay, M.C., Kidwell, S.M., Kirby, M.X., Peterson, C.H., Jackson, J.B., Depletion, degradation, and recovery potential of estuaries and coastal seas. Science 312 (2006), 1806–1809.
132. Lynch, T.P., Morello, E.B., Evans, K., Richardson, A.J., Rochester, W., Steinberg, C.R., Roughan, M., Thompson, P., Middleton, J.F., Feng, M., Sherrington, R., Brando, V., Tilbrook, B., Ridgway, K., Allen, S., Doherty, P., Hill, K., Moltmann, T.C., IMOS National Reference Stations: a continental-wide physical, chemical and biological coastal observing system. PLoS One, 9(12), 2014, e113652, 10.1371/journal.pone.0113652.
133. Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., Francis, R.C., A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78 (1997), 1069–1079.
134. Marshall, A.G., Hendon, H.H., Feng, M., Schiller, A., Initiation and amplification of the Ningaloo Niño. Clim. Dyn 45 (2015), 2367–2385, 10.1007/s00382-015-2477-5.
135. Marshall, G.J., Trends in the southern annular mode from observations and reanalyses. J. Climate, 16(24), 2003, 4134.
136. Marshall, N.A., Gordon, I.J., Ash, A.J., The reluctance of resource-users to adopt seasonal climate forecasts to enhance resilience to climate variability on the rangelands. Clim. Chang. Econ. 3–4 (2011), 511–529, 10.1007/s10584-010-9962-y.
137. Marshall, N.A., Tobin, R.C., Marshall, P.A., Gooch, M., Hobday, A.J., Social vulnerability of marine resource users to extreme weather events. Ecosystems 16:5 (2013), 797–809.
138. Mason, S.J., Mimmack, G.M., Comparison of some statistical methods of probabilistic forecasting of ENSO. J. Climate 15 (2002), 8–25.
139. Masumoto, Y., Yu, W., Meyers, G., et al., 2009. Observing systems in the Indian Ocean. Community White Paper, OceanObs'09.
140. Maury, O., Faugeras, B., Shin, Y.-J., Poggiale, J.-C., Ari, T.B., Marsac, F., Modeling environmental effects on the size-structured energy flow through marine ecosystems. Part 1: the model. Prog. Oceanogr. 74 (2007), 479–499.
141. McCauley, D.J., Pinsky, M.L., Palumbi, S.R., Estes, J.A., Joyce, F.H., Warner, R.R., Marine defaunation: animal loss in the global ocean. Science, 347, 2015, 6219, 10.1126/science.1255641.
142. McEvoy, D., Mullett, J., Enhancing the resilience of seaports to a changing climate: research synthesis and implications for policy and practice. Work Package 4 of Enhancing the Resilience of Seaports to a Changing Climate Report Series, 2013, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast 49 pp.
143. McGranahan, G., Balk, D., Anderson, B., The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ. Urbanization 19:1 (2007), 17–37, 10.1177/0956247807076960.
144. McMahon, T.A., World hydrology: does Australia fit?., Proceedings of the Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Melbourne, 1982, Institution of Engineers, Australia, Canberra, 1–7.
145. McPhaden, M.J., Evolution of the 2002/03 El Niño. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85 (2004), 677–695.
146. McPhaden, M.J., Busalacchi, A.J., Cheney, R., Donguy, J.-R., Gage, K.S., Halpern, D., Ji, M., Julian, P., Meyers, G., Mitchum, G.T., Niiler, P.P., Picaut, J., Reynolds, R.W., Smith, N., Takeuchi, K., The tropical ocean-global atmosphere observing system: a decade of progress. J. Geophys. Res. 103 (1998), 169–240.
147. McPhaden, M.J., Zebiak, S.E., Glantz, M.H., ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science. Science 314 (2006), 1740–1745.
148. Meager, J.J., Limpus, C., Mortality of inshore marine mammals in eastern Australia is predicted by freshwater discharge and air temperature. PLoS One, 9(4), 2014, e94849, 10.1371/journal.pone.0094849.
149. Mearns, L.O., Bogardi, I., Giorgi, F., Matyasovszky, I., Palecki, M., Comparison of climate change scenarios generated from regional climate model experiments and statistical downscaling. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 104:D6 (1999), 6603–6621.
150. Meehl, G.A., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou, C., Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A., Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Rosati, T., Schneider, E., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Teng, H., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Vecchi, G., Yeager, S., Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 95 (2014), 243–267.
151. Meinshausen, M., Meinhausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S.C.B., Frieler, K., Knutti, R., Frame, D.J., Allen, M.R., Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature 458 (2009), 1158–1162.
152. Minobe, S., A 50–70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24 (1997), 683–686.
153. Monselesan, D.P., O'Kane, T.J., Risbey, J.S., Church, J., Internal climate memory in observations and models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42 (2015), 1232–1242, 10.1002/2014GL062765.
154. Morello, E., Plagányi, É., Babcock, R., Sweatman, H., Hillary, R., Punt, A.E., Model to manage and reduce crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 512 (2014), 167–183, 10.3354/meps10858.
155. Murphy, B.F., Ribbe, J., Variability of southeast Queensland rainfall and its predictors. Int. J. Climatol. 24:6 (2004), 703–721.
156. Nairn, J., Fawcett, R., Defining Heatwaves: Heatwave Defined as a Heat-Impact Event Servicing All Community and Business Sectors in Australia. 2013, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia.
157. Nairn, J., Fawcett, R., The excess heat factor: a metric for heatwave intensity and its use in classifying heatwave severity. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 12 (2015), 227–253.
158. Neuheimer, A.B., Thresher, R.E., Lyle, J.M., Semmens, J.M., Tolerance limit for fish growth exceeded by warming waters. Nat. Clim. Chang. 1 (2011), 110–113.
159. Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A.T., Zimmermann, J., Nicholls, R.J., Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding - a global assessment. PLoS One, 10(3), 2015, e0118571, 10.1371/journal.pone.0118571.
160. Nicholls, N., More on early ENSOs: evidence from Australian documentary sources. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 69 (1988), 4–6.
161. Nicholls, N., Drosdowsky, W., Lavery, B., Australian rainfall variability and change. Weather 52 (1996), 66–72.
162. Nicol, S.J., Allain, V., Pilling, G.M., Polovina, J., Coll, M., Bell, J., Dalzell, P., Sharples, P., Olson, R., Griffiths, S., Dambacher, J.M., Young, J., Lewis, A., Hampton, J., Molina, J.J., Hoyle, S., Briand, K., Bax, N., Lehodey, P., Williams, P., An ocean observation system for monitoring the affects of climate change on the ecology and sustainability of pelagic fisheries in the Pacific Ocean. Clim. Change 119 (2013), 131–145, 10.1007/s10584-012-0598-y.
163. Norman-Lopez, A., Plagányi, E., Skewes, T., Poloczanska, E., Dennis, D., Gibbs, M., Bayliss, P., Linking physiological, population and socio-economic assessments of climate-change impacts on fisheries. Fish. Res. 148 (2013), 18–26.
164. O'Kane, T.J., Matear, R., Chamberlain, M., Oke, P., ENSO regimes and the late 1970s climate regime shift: the role of synoptic weather and South Pacific ocean spiciness. J. Comput. Phys. 271 (2014), 19–38.
165. O'Kane, T.J., Risbey, J.S., Franzke, C., Horenko, I., Monselesan, D.P., Changes in the metastability of the midlatitude southern hemisphere circulation and the utility of nonstationary cluster analysis and split-flow blocking indices as diagnostic tools. J. Atmos. Sci. 70 (2013), 824–842.
166. O'Kane, T., Special issue (ensemble prediction and data assimilation): introduction. Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J., 59, 2010, 1.
167. O'Kane, T.J., Frederiksen, J.S., A comparison of statistical dynamical and ensemble prediction methods during blocking. J. Atmos. Sci. 65 (2008), 426–447.
168. O'Kane, T.J., Matear, R., Chamberlain, M., Risbey, J., Sloyan, B., Horenko, I., Decadal variability in an OGCM Southern Ocean: intrinsic modes, forced modes and metastable states. Ocean Model. 69 (2013), 1–21.
169. O'Kane, T.J., Oke, P.R., Sandery, P.A., Predicting the East Australian Current. Ocean Model. 39 (2011), 251–266.
170. O'Kane, T.J., Naughton, M., Xiao, Y., AGREPS: the Australian global and regional ensemble prediction system. Anziam J. 50 (2008), C308–C321.
171. Oke, P.R., Sakov, P., Assessing the footprint of a regional ocean observing system. J. Mar. Syst. 105–108 (2012), 30–51.
172. Paerl, H.W., Valdes, L.M., Joyner, A.R., Peierls, B.L., Piehler, M.F., Riggs, S.R., Christian, R.R., Eby, L.A., Crowder, L.B., Ramus, J.S., Clesceri, E.J., Buzzelli, C.P., Luettich, R.A., Ecological response to hurricane events in the Pamlico Sound system, North Carolina, and implications for assessment and management in a regime of increased frequency. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 29:6A (2006), 1033–1045.
173. Parry, M., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M., Fischer, G., Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob. Environ. Chang. 14:1 (2004), 53–67.
174. Pearce, A., Feng, M., The rise and fall of the “marine heat wave” off Western Australia during the summer of 2010/2011. J. Mar. Syst. 111–112 (2013), 139–156.
175. Perkins, S.E., Alexander, L.V., On the measurement of heat waves. J. Climate 26 (2013), 4500–4517.
176. Plagányi, É.E., Ellis, N., Blamey, L.K., Morello, E.B., Norman-Lopez, A., Robinson, W., Sporcic, M., Sweatman, H., Ecosystem modelling provides clues to understanding ecological tipping points. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 512 (2014), 99–113.
177. Plagányi, É.E., Punt, A.E., Hillary, R., Morello, E.B., Thebaud, O., Hutton, T., Pillans, R.D., Thorson, J.T., Fulton, E.A., Smith, A.D.M., Smith, F., Bayliss, P., Haywood, M., Lyne, V., Rothlisberg, P.C., Multispecies fisheries management and conservation: tactical applications using models of intermediate complexity. Fish Fish. 15 (2014), 1–22.
178. Plagányi, É.E., Skewes, T.D., Dowling, N.A., Haddon, M., Risk management tools for sustainable fisheries management under changing climate: a sea cucumber example. Clim. Change 119 (2013), 181–197.
179. Plagányi, É.E., Weeks, S.J., Skewes, T.D., Gibbs, M.T., Poloczanska, E.S., Norman-Lopez, A., Blamey, L.K., Soares, M., Robinson, W.M.L., Assessing the adequacy of current fisheries management under changing climate: a southern synopsis. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 68 (2011), 1305–1317.
180. Pörtner, H.-O., Karl, D.M., Boyd, P.W., Cheung, W.W.L., Lluch-Cota, S.E., Nojiri, Y., Schmidt, D.N., Zavialov, P.O., Ocean systems. Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., (eds.) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 411–484.
181. Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A., Mehta, V., Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim. Dyn. 15 (1999), 319–324.
182. Power, S.B., Smith, I.N., Weakening of the Walker Circulation and apparent dominance of El Niño both reach record levels, but has ENSO really changed?. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 2007, L18702.
183. Pratchett, M., Dynamics of Outbreak Populations of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster planci L.), and Their Effects on Coral Reef Ecosystems. 2001, School of Marine Biology and Aquaculture, James Cook University, Townsville 262 pp.
184. Previdi, M., Polvani, L.M., Climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 140:685 (2014), 2401–2419.
185. Punt, A.E., Hobday, D., Gerhard, J., Troynikov, V.S., Modelling growth of rock lobsters, Jasus edwardsii, off Victoria, Australia using models that allow for individual variation in growth parameters. Fish. Res. 82 (2006), 119–130.
186. Redondo-Rodriguez, A., Weeks, S.J., Berkelmans, R., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Lough, J.M., Climate variability of the Great Barrier Reef in relation to the tropical Pacific and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mar. Freshw. Res. 63 (2012), 34–47.
187. Ridgway, K.R., Condie, S.A., The 5500-km-long boundary flow off western and southern Australia. J. Geophys. Res., 109, 2004, C04017.
188. Rijnsdorp, A., Peck, M.A., Engelhard, G.H., Möllmann, C., Pinnegar, J.K., Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 66 (2009), 1570–1583.
189. Risbey, J., O'Kane, T.J., Sources of knowledge and ignorance in climate research. Clim. Change 108:4 (2011), 755–773.
190. Risbey, J.S., Pook, M.J., McIntosh, P.C., Wheeler, M.C., Hendon, H.H., On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Mon. Weather Rev. 137 (2009), 3233–3253.
191. Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Å., Chapin, F.S., Lambin, E., Lenton, T.M., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H.J., Nykvist, B., de Wit, C.A., Hughes, T., van der Leeuw, S., Rodhe, H., Sörlin, S., Snyder, P.K., Costanza, R., Svedin, U., Falkenmark, M., Karlberg, L., Corell, R.W., Fabry, V.J., Hansen, J., Walker, B., Liverman, D., Richardson, K., Crutzen, P., Foley, J., A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461 (2009), 472–475.
192. Rodwell, M.J., Rowell, D.P., Folland, C.K., Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature 398 (1999), 320–323, 10.1038/18648.
193. Roemmich, D., Johnson, G.C., Riser, S., Davis, R., Gilson, J., Owens, W.B., Garzoli, S.L., Schmid, C., Ignaszewski, M., The Argo Program: observing the global ocean with profiling floats. Oceanography 22:2 (2009), 34–43.
194. Rose, K.A., Allen, J.I., Artioli, Y., Barange, M., Blackford, J., Carlotti, F., Cropp, R., Daewel, U., Edwards, K., Flynn, K., Hill, S.L., HilleRisLambers, R., Huse, G., Mackinson, S., Megrey, B., Moll, A., Rivkin, R., Salihoglu, B., Schrum, C., Shannon, L., Shin, Y.-J., Smith, S.L., Smith, C., Solidoro, C., St. John, M., Zhou, M., End-to-end models for the analysis of marine ecosystems: challenges, issues, and next steps. Mar. Coast. Fish. 2 (2010), 115–130.
195. Rougier, J., Sexton, D.M.H., Murphy, J.M., Stainforth, D., Analyzing the climate sensitivity of the HadSM3 climate model using ensembles from different but related experiments. J. Clim. 22 (2009), 3540–3557.
196. Sainsbury, K.J., Punt, A.E., Smith, A.D.M., Design of operational management strategies for achieving fishery ecosystem objectives. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57 (2000), 731–741.
197. Saji, N.H., Goswami, B.N., Vinayachandran, P.N., Yamagata, T., A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401 (1999), 360–363.
198. Salinger, M.J., Renwick, J.A., Mullan, A.B., Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and South Pacific climate. Int. J. Climatol. 21:14 (2001), 1705–1721.
199. Sandery, P., O'Kane, T.J., Coupled initialization in an ocean-atmosphere tropical cyclone prediction system. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 140 (2013), 82–95.
200. Savage, J., Hobsbawn, P., Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics 2014, Fisheries Research and Development Corporation Project 2014/245, 2015, ABARES, Canberra December, CC BY 3.0.
201. Scaife, A.A., Arribas, A., Blockley, E., Brookshaw, A., Clark, R.T., Dunstone, N., Eade, R., Fereday, D., Folland, C.K., Gordon, M., Hermanson, L., Knight, J.R., Lea, D.J., MacLachlan, C., Maidens, A., Martin, M., Peterson, A.K., Smith, D., Vellinga, M., Wallace, E., Waters, J., Williams, A., Skillful long range prediction of European and North American Winters. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41:7 (2014), 2514–2519.
202. Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W.A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S.R., Dakos, V., Held, H., Van Nes, E.H., Rietkerk, M., Sugihara, G., Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461 (2009), 53–59.
203. Schneider, N., The response of tropical climate to the equatorial emergence of spiciness anomalies. J. Climate 17:3 (2004), 1083–1095.
204. Seferian, R., et al. The multi-year predictability of tropical marine productivity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 2013, 1–5.
205. 2 conditions. Glob. Chang. Biol. 19 (2013), 1632–1641.
206. Shin, Y.J., Shannon, L.J., Bundy, A., Coll, M., Aydin, K., Bez, N., Blanchard, J.L., Borges, M.D., Diallo, I., Diaz, E., Heymans, J.J., Hill, L., Johannesen, E., Jouffre, D., Kifani, S., Labrosse, P., Link, J.S., Mackinson, S., Masski, H., Mollmann, C., Neira, S., Ojaveer, H., Abdallahi, K.O.M., Perry, I., Thiao, D., Yemane, D., Cury, P.M., Using indicators for evaluating, comparing, and communicating the ecological status of exploited marine ecosystems. 2. Setting the scene. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 67 (2010), 692–716.
207. Simpson, I.R., Shepherd, T.G., Hitchcock, P., Scinocca, J.F., Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models. Part II: Eddy feedbacks. J. Climate 26 (2013), 5220–5241.
208. Smagorinsky, J., General circulation experiments with the primitive equations I. The basic experiments. Mon. Weather Rev. 91 (1963), 99–164.
209. Smith, A.D.M., Fulton, E.J., Hobday, A.J., Smith, D.C., Shoulder, P., Scientific tools to support the practical implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 64 (2007), 633–639.
210. Smith, M.D., An ecological perspective on extreme climatic events: a synthetic definition and framework to guide future research. J. Ecol. 99 (2011), 656–663.
211. Smith, M.H., Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors—Oil and Gas Sector, 2013, ANU, Canberra 20 pp.
212. Smith, T.D., The Woods Hole bottom trawl resource survey: development of fisheries-independent multi-species monitoring. ICES Mar. Sci. Symp. 215 (2004), 474–482.
213. Spillman, C., Operational real-time seasonal forecasts for coral reef management. J. Oper. Oceanogr. 4:1 (2011), 13–22.
214. Spillman, C.M., Hobday, A.J., Dynamical seasonal ocean forecasts to aid salmon farm management in a climate hotspot. Clim. Risk Manag. 1 (2014), 25–38.
215. Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Alexander, L.V., Allen, S.K., Bindoff, N.L., Bréon, F.-M., Church, J.A., Cubasch, U., Emori, S., Forster, P., Friedlingstein, P., Gillett, N., Gregory, J.M., Hartmann, D.L., Jansen, E., Kirtman, B., Knutti, R., Krishna Kumar, K., Lemke, P., Marotzke, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Meehl, G.A., Mokhov, I.I., Piao, S., Ramaswamy, V., Randall, D., Rhein, M., Rojas, M., Sabine, C., Shindell, D., Talley, L.D., Vaughan, D.G., Xie, S.-P., Technical summary. Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P.M., (eds.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
216. Szuwalski, C.S., Punt, A.E., Fisheries management for regime-based ecosystems: a management strategy evaluation for the snow crab fishery in the eastern Bering Sea. ICES J. Mar. Sci 70:5 (2013), 955–967, 10.1093/icesjms/fss182.
217. Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J., Meehl, G.A., An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93 (2012), 485–498, 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
218. Tchernov, D., Gorbunov, M.Y., de Vargas, C., Narayan Yadav, S., Milligan, A.J., et al. Membrane lipids of symbiotic algae are diagnostic of sensitivity to thermal bleaching in corals. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101 (2004), 13531–13535.
219. Thompson, D.W.J., Solomon, S., Kushner, P.J., England, M.H., Grise, K.M., Karoly, D.J., Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in southern hemisphere surface climate change. Nat. Geosci. 4 (2011), 741–749.
220. Thompson, D.W.J., Wallace, J.M., Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: month-to-month variability. J. Climate 13 (2000), 1000–1016.
221. Thompson, P.A., Effects of temperature and irradiance on marine microalgal growth and physiology. Rao, S., (eds.) Algal Cultures, Analogues of Blooms and Applications, 2006, Science Publishers Inc., Enfield, New Hampshire, 571–638.
222. Torrence, C., Webster, P.J., The annual cycle of persistence in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 124 (1998), 1985–2004.
223. Trenberth, K., Hurrell, J., Decadal atmosphere–ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim. Dyn. 9 (1994), 303–319.
224. Trenberth, K.E., General characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Glantz, M.H., Katz, R.W., Nicholls, N., (eds.) Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies. Scientific Basis and Societal Impact, 1991, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 13–42.
225. Trenberth, K.E., Jones, P.D., Ambenje, P., Bojariu, R., Easterling, D., Klein Tank, A., Parker, D., Rahimzadeh, F., Renwick, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Soden, B., Zhai, P., Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., (eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 235–336.
226. Trenberth, K.E., Stepaniak, D.P., Smith, L., Interannual variability of the patterns of atmospheric mass distribution. J. Climate 18 (2005), 2812–2825.
227. Troup, A.J., The southern oscillation. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 91 (1965), 490–506.
228. Valdivia, J., The anchoveta and El Niño. Rapp. P.-V. Réun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer. 173 (1978), 196–202.
229. van de Leemput, I.A., van Nes, E.H., Scheffer, M., Resilience of alternative states in spatially extended ecosystems. PLoS One, 10(2), 2015, e0116859.
230. Vitousek, P.M., Mooney, H.A., Lubchenko, J., Mellilo, J.M., Human domination of Earth's ecosystem. Science 277 (1997), 494–499.
231. Vörösmarty, C.J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., Lammers, R.B., Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289 (2000), 284–288.
232. Ward, R., Ranger, N., Trends in economic and insured losses from weather-related events: a new analysis. Insurance Industry Brief—The Munich RE Programme of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, 2010, University of Leeds, UK 24 pp, Available at cccep.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/…/economic-trends-insured-losses.pdf.
233. Wayte, S.E., Management implications of including a climate-induced recruitment shift in the stock assessment for jackass morwong (Nemadactylus macropterus) in south-eastern Australia. Fish. Res. 142 (2013), 47–55.
234. Wernberg, T., Smale, D.A., Tuya, F., Thomsen, M.S., Langlois, T.J., Bennett, S., Rousseaux, C., An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3 (2013), 78–82.
235. Wild-Allen, K., Herzfeld, M., Thompson, P.A., Rosebrock, U., Parslow, J., Volkman, J.K., Applied coastal biogeochemical modelling to quantify the environmental impact of fish farm nutrients and inform managers. J. Mar. Syst. 81 (2010), 134–147.
236. Yin, J.H., A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, 2005, L18701.
237. Zanna, L., Heimbach, P., Moore, A.M., Tziperman, E., Optimal excitation of interannual Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability. J. Climate 24:2 (2011), 413–427.
238. Zhang, J., Jørgensen, S.E., Tan, C.O., Beklioglu, M., A structurally dynamic modelling—Lake Mogan, Turkey as a case study. Ecol. Model. 164 (2003), 103–120.
239. Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G.C., Jones, P., Klein Tank, A., Peterson, T.C., Trewin, B., Zwiers, F.W., Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim. Chang. 2 (2011), 851–870, 10.1002/wcc.147.
240. Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., Battisti, D.S., ENSO-like variability: 1900-93. J. Climate 10 (1997), 1004–1020.
241. Zhao, M., Hendon, H.H., Alves, O., Liu, G., Wang, G., Weakened ENSO predictability in the early 21st century., ENSO Workshop Australia 2015 ENSO Extremes and Diversity: Dynamics, Teleconnection, and Impacts University of New South Wales, Sydney, 4th–6th February, 2015 http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/vicci/documents/16%20-%20Harry%20Hendon.pdf.
242. Zinke, J., Hoell, A., Lough, J., Feng, M., Kuret, A.J., Clarke, H., Ricca, V., Rankenburg, K., McCulloch, M.T., Coral record of southeast Indian Ocean marine heatwaves with intensified Western Pacific temperature gradient. Nat. Commun., 6, 2015, 10.1038/ncomms9562.