The annual cycle of persistence in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 124, Issue 550, 1998, Pages 1985-2004

  Torrence, Christopher ^a  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0032444250     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1256/smsqj.55009     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Balmaseda, M. A., Anderson, D. L. T. and Davey, M. K. 1994 ENSO prediction using a dynamical ocean model coupled to statistical atmospheres. Tellus, 46A, 497-511
2. Balmaseda, M. A., Davey, M. K. and Anderson, D. L. T. 1995 Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill. J. Climate, 8, 2705-2715
3. Barnett, T. P. 1991 The interaction of multiple time scales in the tropical climate system. J. Climate, 4, 269-285
4. Barnston, A. G., van den Dool, H. M., Zebiak, S. E., Barnett, T. P., Ji, M., Rodenhuis, D. R., Cane, M. A., Leetmaa, A., Graham, N. E., Ropelewski, C. R., Kousky, V. E., O'Lenic, E. A. and Livezey, R. E. 1994 Long-lead seasonal forecasts - where do we stand? Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 75, 2097-2114
5. Blumenthal, M. B. 1991 Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 4, 766-784
6. Cane, M. A., Zebiak, S. E. and Dolan, S. C. 1986 Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature, 321, 827-832
7. Chen, D., Zebiak, S. E., Busalacchi, A. J. and Cane, M. A. 1995 An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting. Science, 269, 1699-1702
8. Chen, D., Zebiak, S. E., Cane, M. A. and Busalacchi, A. J. 1997 Initialization and predictability of acoupled ENSO forecast model. Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 773-788
9. Clarke, A. J. and Lebedev, A. 1996 Long-term changes in the equatorial Pacific trade winds. J. Climate, 9, 1020-1029
10. Folland, C. K., Parker, D. E. and Kates, F. E. 1984 Worldwide marine temperature fluctuations 1856-1981. Nature, 310,670-673
11. Goswami, B. N. and Shukla, J. 1991 Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 4, 3-22
12. Gu, D. and Philander, S. G. H. 1995 Secular changes of annual and interannual variability in the tropics during the past century. J. Climate, 8, 864-876
13. Ji, M., Kumar, A. and Leetmaa, A. 1994 An experimental coupled forecast system at the National Meteorological Center: Some early results. Tellus, 46A, 398-418
14. Kiladis, G. N. and Diaz, H. F. 1989 Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 1069-1090
15. Latif, M. and Graham, N. E. 1991 'How much predictive skill is contained in the thermal structure of an OGCM?' Pp. 6-8 in TOGA Notes, 2. (Available from Nova Southeastern University Oceanographic Center, Florida, USA)
16. Lau, K.-M. and Yang, S. 1996 The Asian monsoon and predictability of the tropical oceanatmosphere system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 945-957
17. Meehl, G. A. 1987 The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian ocean regions. Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 27-50
18. Mooley, D. A. and Parthasarathy, B. 1984 Fluctuations in all-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. Clim. Change, 6, 287-301
19. Moore, A. M. and Kleeman, R. 1996 The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 1405-1446
20. Normand, C. 1953 Monsoon seasonal forecasting. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 463-473
21. Parthasarathy, B., Kumar, K. Rupa and Munot, A. A. 1991 Evidence of secular variations in Indian monsoon rainfall-circulation relationships. J. Climate, 4, 927-938
22. Penland, C. and Sardeshmukh, P. D. 1995 The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 8, 1999-2024
23. Rasmusson, E. M. and Carpenter, T. H. 1982 Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon. Weather Rev., 110, 354-384
24. Rayner, N. A., Horton, E. B., Parker, D. E., Folland, C. K. and Hackett, R. B. 1996 'Version 2.2 of the Global sea-Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set, 1903-1994'. Technical report, CRTN 74. (Available from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met. Office, Bracknell, UK)
25. Ropelewski, C. F. and Jones, P. D. 1987 An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation index. Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2161-2165
26. Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P. 1998 A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 61-78
27. Treloar, H. M. and Grant, A. M. 1953 Some correlation studies of Australian rainfall. Aust. J. Agric. Res., 4, 423-429
28. Trenberth, K. E. 1976 Spatial and temporal variations of the Southern Oscillation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 102, 639-653
29. Trenberth, K. E. 1984 Signal versus noise in the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev., 112, 326-332
30. Troup, A. J. 1965 The 'southern oscillation'. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 490-506
31. Walker, G. T. and Bliss, E. W. 1932 World weather V. Mem. R. Meteorol. Soc., 4, No. 36, 53-84
32. Walker, G. T. and Bliss, E. W. 1937 World weather VI, Mem. R. Meteorol. Soc., 4, No. 39, 119-139
33. Wang, B. 1995 Interdecadal changes in El Niño onset in the last four decades. J. Climate, 8, 267-285
34. Wang, B. and Wang, Y. 1996 Temporal structure of the Southern Oscillation as revealed by waveform and wavelet analysis. J. Climate, 9, 1586-1598
35. Webster, P. J. 1995 The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 56, 33-55
36. Webster, P. J. and Yang, S. 1992 Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 118, 877-926
37. Wright, P. B. 1979 Persistence of rainfall anomalies in the central Pacific, Nature, 277, 371-374
38. Wright, P. B. 1985 The Southern Oscillation: An ocean-atmosphere feedback system? Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 66, 398-412
39. Wright, P. B. 1987 'Variations in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and their global relationships'. Report 12, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Germany
40. Xue, Y., Cane, M. A., Zebiak, S. E. and Blumenthal, M. B. 1994 On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low-order Markov model. Tellus, 46A, 512-528