The reluctance of resource-users to adopt seasonal climate forecasts to enhance resilience to climate variability on the rangelands

Climatic Change

Volumn 107, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 511-529

  Marshall, N A ^a   Gordon, I J ^a   Ash, A J ^a  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES; ADAPTIVE CAPACITY; AUSTRALIA; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS; QUEENSLAND; SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST; SOCIAL CAPITALS; SOCIAL FACTOR; TECHNICAL FACTORS;

FORECASTING;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIATION; ECOSYSTEM RESILIENCE; RANGELAND; RESOURCE USE; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

AUSTRALIA; QUEENSLAND;

EID: 79960945683     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9962-y     Document Type: Article

References (99)

1. Anderson JR (2003) Risk in rural development: challenges for managers and policy makers. Agric Syst 75: 161-197.
2. Anderson HK et al (2005) Farm cooperation to improve sustainability. Ambio 34: 383-387.
3. Ash AJ, O'Reagain P, McKeon GM, Stafford Smith M (2000) Managing climate variability in grazing enterprises: a case study of Dalrymple Shire, North Eastern Australia. In: Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Kluwell, London.
4. Ash A, McIntosh P, Cullen B, Carberry P, Smith MS (2007) Constraints and opportunities in applying seasonal climate forecasts in agriculture. Aust J Agric Res 58: 952-965.
5. Austen EA, Sale PWG, Clark SG, Graetz B (2002) A survey of farmers' attitudes, management strategies and use of weather and seasonal climate forecasts for coping with climate variability in the perennial pasture zone of south-east Australia. Aust J Exp Agric 42: 173-183.
6. Bailey C, Pomeroy C (1996) Resource dependency and development options in Coastal Southeast Asia. Soc Nat Resour 9: 191-199.
7. Bewsell D, Monaghan RM, Kaine G (2007) Adoption of stream fencing among dairy farmers in four New Zealand catchments. Environ Manag 40: 201-209.
8. Bohensky E, Stone-Jovicich S, Larson S, Marshall NA (2010) Adaptive capacity in theory and reality: implications for governance in the Great Barrier Reef region. In: Armitage D, Plummer R (eds) Adaptive capacity and environmental governance. Springer, Heidelberg.
9. Brodie J (2002) Keeping the wolf from the door: managing land-based threats to the Great Barrier Reef. In: Proceedings of the 9th international coral reef symposium, Bali, Indonesia.
10. Brown P, Nelson R, Kokic P, DeVoil P, Tracey J, Jacobs B, Ahmed M (2010) Rural livelihoods analysis enabling natural resource managers to self-assess their adaptive capacity. Agric Syst 103: 562-568.
11. Brunckhorst DJ (2002) Institutions to sustain ecological and social systems. Ecological Management and Restoration 3: 108-116.
12. Burton I, Lim B (2005) Achieving adequate adaptation in agriculture. Clim Change 70: 191-200.
13. Burton RJF, Kuczera C, Schwarz G (2008) Exploring farmers' cultural resistance to voluntary agri-environmental schemes. European Society for Rural Sociology 48: 25.
14. Buxton R, Stafford Smith DM (1997) Managing drought in Australia's rangelands: four weddings and a funeral. Rangeland J 18: 292-299.
15. Campbell BM, Gordon IJ, Luckert MK, Petheram L, Vetter S (2006) In search of optimal stocking regimes in semi-arid grazing lands: one size does not fit all. Ecol Econ 60: 75-85.
16. Cernea MM (1993) The sociologist's approach to sustainable development. Finance Dev 30: 1-7.
17. Cinner JM, Fuentes BP, Randriamahazo H (2009) Exploring social resilience in Madagascar's marine protected areas. Ecol Soc 14: 41.
18. Clewett JF, Howden SM, McKeon GM, Rose CW (1991) Optimising farm dam irrigation in response to climatic risk. In: Muchow JA et al (ed) Climatic risk in crop production: models and management for the semi-arid tropics and subtropics. ICAB, Wallingford, pp 307-328.
19. Cobon DH, Bell KL, Park JN, Keogh DU (2008) Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in Western Queensland. Rangeland J 30: 361-374.
20. Cobon DH, Stone GS et al (2009) The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia. Rangeland J 31: 31-49.
21. Curtis A, van Nouhuys M, Robinson W, Mackay J (2000) Exploring landcare effectiveness using organisational theory. Aust Geogr 31: 349-366.
22. Dasgupta P, Maler K (2001) Wealth as a Criterion for Sustainable Development. pp. online at: http://www. beijer. kva. se/publications/pdf-archive/Disc139. pdf. Stockholm: Beijer International Institute of Ecological Economics.
23. Dilley M (2000) Reducing vulnerability to climate variability in Southern Africa: the growing role of climate information. Clim Change 45: 63-73.
24. Dow K, O'Connor RE, Yarnal B, Carbone GJ, Jocoy CL (2007) Why worry? Community water system managers' perceptions of climate vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 17: 228-237.
25. Everingham YL, Muchow RC, Stone RC, Inman-Bamber NG, Singels A, Bezuidenhout CN (2002) Enhanced risk management and decision-making capability across the sugarcane industry value chain based on seasonal climate forecasts. Agric Syst 74: 459-477.
26. Feldman MW, Aoki K, Kumm J (1996) Individual versus social learning. Anthropol Sci 104: 209-232.
27. Folke C, Carpenter S, Elmqvist T, Gunderson L, Holling CS, Walker B (2002a) Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations. Ambio 31: 437.
28. Folke C, Carpenter S, Elmqvist T, Gunderson L, Holling CS, Walker B, Bengston DN, Berkes F, Colding J, Danell K, Falkenmark M, Gordon L, Kasperson RE, Kautsky N, Kinzig A, Levin S, Maler K, Moberg F, Ohlsson L, Ohlsson E, Reid WV, Rockstrom J, Savenije H, Svedin U (2002b) Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations. In Scientific Background Paper on Resilience for the process of The World Summit on Sustainable Development on behalf of The Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government. pp. 73pp. Online at: http://www. unisdr. org/eng/risk-reduction/wssd/resilience-sd. pdf.
29. Folke C, Hahn T, Olsson P, Norberg J (2005) Adaptive governance of social-ecological systems. Annu Rev Environ Res 30: 441-473.
30. Force JE, Machlis GE, Zhang C, Kearney A (1993) The relationship between timber production, local historical events, and community social change: a quantitative case study. For Sci 39: 722-742.
31. Hammer GL, Holzworth DP, Stone R (1996) The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability. Aust J Agric Res 47: 717-737.
32. Hammer GL, Hansen JW, Phillips JG, Mjelde JW, Hill H, Love A, Potgieter A (2001) Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture. Agric Syst 70: 515-553.
33. Hansen JW (2002a) Applying seasonal climate prediction to agricultural production. Agric Syst 74: 305-307.
34. Hansen JW (2002b) Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges. Agric Syst 74: 309-330.
35. Hayman P, Crean J, Mullen J, Parton K (2007) How do probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts compare with other innovations that Australian farmers are encouraged to adopt? Aust J Agric Res 58: 975-984.
36. Hertzler G (2007) Adapting to climate change and managing climate risks by using real options. Aust J Agric Res 58: 985-992.
37. Hobbs NT, Galvin KA, Stokes CJ, Lackett JM, Ash AJ, Boone RB, Reid RS, Thornton PK (2008) Fragmentation of rangelands: implications for humans, animals, and landscapes. Glob Environ Change 18: 776-785.
38. Hofferth SL, Iceland J (1998) Social capital in rural and urban communities. Rural Sociol 63: 574-598.
39. Holling CS (2004) Foreword: the backloop to sustainability. In: Berkes F, Colding J, Folke C (eds) Navigating social-ecological systems. Building resilience for complexity and change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 33-47.
40. Howden SM, Soussana J, Tubiello FN, Chhetri N, Dunlop M, Meinke H (2007) Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104: 19691-19696.
41. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
42. Johnston P, McKeon GM, Buxton R, Cobon DH, Day K, Hall W, Scanlan J (2000) Managing climatic variability in Queensland's grazing lands - new approaches. In: Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Kluwer, London.
43. Kallstrom HN, Ljung M (2005) Social sustainability and collaborative learning. Ambio 34: 376-382.
44. Keogh DU, Watson IW, Bell KL, Cobon DH, Dutta SC (2006) Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry. Aust J Exp Agric 45: 1613-1625.
45. Kim J, Mueller CW (1978) Introduction to factor analysis. What it is and how to do it. In: Lewis-Beck MS (ed) Quantitative applications in the social sciences. Sage Publications, Iowa City.
46. Kokic P, Nelson R, Meinke H, Potgieter A, Carter J (2007) From rainfall to farm incomes-transforming advice for Australian drought policy. I. Development and testing of a bioeconomic modelling system. Aust J Agric Res 58: 993-1003.
47. Krannich RS, Zollinger B (1997) Pursuing rural community development in resource-dependent areas: obstacles and opportunities. Res Community Sociol 7: 201-222.
48. Landsberg RG, Ash AJ, Shepherd RK, McKeon GM (1998) Learning from history to survive in the future: management evolution on Trafalgar Station, north-east Queensland. Rangeland J 20: 104-118.
49. Leith PB (2006) Conversations about climate: seasonal variability and graziers' decision in the Eastern Rangelands. University of Tasmania, Hobart.
50. Likert R (1932) A technique for the measurement of attitude. Arch Psychol 22.
51. Marshall NA (2008) Enhancing social resilience to climate variability using seasonal climate forecasts. In: CSIRO, sustainable ecosystems. CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosystems, Townsville, pp 100 pages.
52. Marshall NA, Fenton DM, Marshall PA, Sutton S (2007) How resource-dependency can influence social resilience within a primary resource industry. Rural Sociol 72: 359-390.
53. Marshall NA, Marshall PA, Obura D, Tamelander J (2009) A framework for social adaptation to climate change. In: IUCN - The International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Gland, Switzerland.
54. McAllister RJJ, Abel N, Stokes C, Gordon I (2006) Australian pastoralists in time and space: the evolution of a complex adaptive system. Ecology and Society 12: www. ecologyandsociety. org/vol11/iss2/art41/, http://www. ecologyandsociety. org/vol11/iss2/art41/.
55. McCrea R, Dalgleish L, Coventry W (2005) Encouraging use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers. Int J Climatol 25: 1127-1137.
56. McKeon GM, Stone GS et al (2009) Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues. Rangeland J 31: 1-29.
57. McKeon GM, Day KA, Howden SM, Mott JJ, Orr DM, Scattini WJ, Weston EJ (1990) Management for pastoral production in northern Australian savannas. J Biogeogr 17: 355-372.
58. McKeon GM, Ash A, Hall W, Stafford Smith M (2000) Simulation of grazing strategies for beef production in North-East Queensland. In: Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Kluwer, London.
59. McKeon GM, Hall WB, Henry BK, Stone GS, Watson IW (2004) Pasture degradation and recovery in Australia's rangelands: learning from history. Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy, Brisbane, pp 1-255.
60. Meinke H, Stone RC (2005) Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations. Clim Change 70: 221-253.
61. Meinke H, Sivakumar MVK, Motha RP, Nelson R (2007) Preface: climate predictions for better agricultural risk management. Aust J Agric Res 58: 935-938.
62. Mueller DJ (1986) Measuring social attitudes. A handbook for researchers and practitioners. Teachers College Press, New York.
63. Nelson BS, Robinson E (2009) Critical success factors of a whole of business extension approach for increased capacity of beef producers and improved enterprise profit and sustainability. Rangeland J 31: 61-68.
64. Nelson RR, Winter SG (1960) Weather information and economic decisions. In RM-2670-NASA. RAND, Santa Monica.
65. Nelson DR, Adger WN, Brown K (2007a) Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework. Annu Rev Environ Res 32: 395-419.
66. Nelson R, Kokic P, Meinke H (2007b) From rainfall to farm incomes-transforming advice for Australian drought policy. II. Forecasting farm incomes. Aust J Agric Res 58: 1004-1012.
67. Nelson RR, Brown P, Darbas T, Kokic P, Cody K (2007c) The potential to map the adaptive capacity of Australian land managers for NRM policy using ABS data. (ed. N. L. W. r. Audit). Natural Heritage Trust.
68. Nelson R, Howden SM, Stafford Smith M (2008) Using adaptive governance to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy. Environ Sci Policy 11: 588-601.
69. Patt A, Gwata C (2002) Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Glob Environ Change 12: 185-196.
70. Plant S (2000) The relevance of seasonal climate forecasting to a rural producer. In: Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Kluwer Academic Publishers, London.
71. Potgieter AB, Everingham YL, Hammer GL (2003) On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts. Int J Climatol 23: 1195-1210.
72. Prabhakar S, Shaw R (2008) Climate change adaptation implications for drought risk mitigation: a perspective for India. Clim Change 88: 113-130.
73. Rayner S, Lach D, Ingram H (2005) Weather forecasts are for wimps: why water resource managers do not use climate forecasts. Clim Change 69: 197-227.
74. Regnier E (2008) Doing something about the weather. Omega 36: 22-32.
75. Ritchie JW, Abawi GY, Dutta SC, Harris TR, Bange M (2004a) Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance. Aust J Agric Resour Econ 48: 65-93.
76. Ritchie JW, Zammit C, Beal D (2004b) Can seasonal climate forecasting assist in catchment water management decision-making? Agric Ecosyst Environ 104: 553-565.
77. Salinger MJ, Sivakumar MVK, Motha R (2005) Reducing vulnerability of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and change: workshop summary and recommendations. Clim Change 70: 341-362.
78. Schusler TM, Decker DJ, Pfeffer MJ (2003) Social learning for collaborative natural resource management. Soc Nat Resour 16: 309-326.
79. Sivakumar MVK, Das HP, Brunini O (2005) Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics. Clim Change 70: 31-72.
80. Stafford Smith DM, Foran B (1992) An approach to assessing the economic risk of different drought management tactics on a South Australian Pastoral Sheep Station. Agric Syst 39: 83-105.
81. Stafford Smith M, Buxton R, McKeon GM, Ash AJ (2000) Seasonal climate forecasting and the management of rangelands: do production benefits translate into enterprise profits? In: Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Kluwer, London.
82. Stafford Smith DM, McKeon GM, Watson IW, Henry BK, Stone GS, Hall WB, Howden SM (2007) Learning from episodes of degradation and recovery in variable Australian Rangelands. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104: 20690-20695.
83. Stern PC, Easterling WE (1999) Making climate forecasts matter. In: Paul E, Stern C, Easterling WE (ed) Committee on the human dimensions of global change (HDGC). National Academy Press, Washington.
84. Stokes CJ, Howden SM (2010) Adapting agriculture to climate change: preparing Australian agriculture, forestry and fisheries for the future. CSIRO Publishing, Canberra.
85. Stokes C, McAllister RRJ, Ash A (2006) Fragmentation of Australian rangelands: processes, benefits and risks of changing patterns of land use. Rangeland J 28: 83-96.
86. Stokes CJ, McAllister RRJ, Ash AJ, Gross JE (2007) Changing patterns of land use and tenure in the Dalrymple Shire, Australia. In: Galvin KA, Reid R, Behnke RH, Hobbs NT (eds) Fragmentation in semi-arid and arid landscapes: consequences for human and natural landscapes.
87. Stone RC, De Hoedt GC (2000) The development and delivery of current seasonal climate forecasting capabilities in Australia. In: Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Kluwer, London.
88. Tiwari KR, Sitaula BK, Nyborg ILP, Paudel GS (2008) Determinants of farmers adoption of improved soil conservation technology in a Middle Mountain Watershed of Central Nepal. Environ Manag 42: 210-222.
89. Tschakert P (2007) Views from the vulnerable: understanding climatic and other stressors in the Sahel. Glob Environ Change 17: 381-396.
90. Walters C (1997) Challenges in adaptive management of riparian and coastal ecosystems. Conservation Ecology 1: 1.
91. Watson IW (2003) Preventing desertification and promoting rehabilitation in western Australian semi-arid rangelands at the individual property scale. The Organising Committee of OASERD-APEID.
92. Watson IW (2004) I had the right number of sheep, but the wrong amount of rain. In: Bastin G, Walsh D, Nicolson S (eds) Australian rangeland society 13th Biennial conference. Alice Springs, Northern Territory.
93. Weiss CH, Bucuvalas MJ (1980) Truth tests and utility tests. Am Sociol Rev 45: 302-313.
94. White B (2000) The importance of climate variability and seasonal forecasting to the Australian economy. In: Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Kluwer, London, pp 1-22.
95. White DH, Howden SM, Walcott JJ, Cannon RM (1998) A framework for estimating the extent and severity of drought, based on a grazing system in south-eastern Australia. Agric Syst 57: 259-270.
96. Willock J, Deary IJ, McGregor MM, Sutherland A, Edwards-Jones G, Morgan O, Dent B, Grieve R, Gibson G, Austin E (1999) Farmers' attitudes, objectives, behaviors, and personality traits: the Edinburgh study of decision making on farms. J Vocat Behav 54: 5-36.
97. Zamani GH, Gorgievski-Duijvesteijn MJ, Zarafshani K (2006) Coping with drought: towards a multilevel understanding based on conservation of resources theory. Hum Ecol 34: 677-692.
98. Ziervogel G, Calder R (2003) Climate variability and rural livelihoods: assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecasts in Lesotho. Geogr J 170: 6-21.
99. Ziervogel G, Bithell M, Washington R, Downing T (2005) Agent-based social simulation: a method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers. Agric Syst 83: 1-26.