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Volumn 289, Issue 5477, 2000, Pages 284-288

Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FRESH WATER;

EID: 0037570417     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.289.5477.284     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (3764)

References (37)
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    • J. Alcamo et al., in World Water Scenarios: Analyses, F. R. Rijsberman, Ed. (Earthscan, London, 2000), pp. 204-242.
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  • 8
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    • note
    • "Water resource infrastructure" refers to water source, distribution, and treatment systems. We assume that wherever there is a resident human population or irrigated cropland, there will be a corresponding water infrastructure. Changes in water demand due to population growth and industrialization or in water supply due to climate change will define the vulnerability of water infrastructure and the human population that is dependent on these systems.
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    • note
    • 2-equivalent forcing and sulfate aerosol dampening. Original data at 3.75° by 3.75° (latitude by longitude) for CGCM1 and at 2.5° by 3.75° for HadCM2 were bilinearly interpolated to 30′ resolution. Monthly forcings were applied to the WBM, and a statistically equivalent daily time step was used to integrate over time and compute water budget variables, including runoff.
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    • note
    • -1, respectively.
  • 16
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    • note
    • The approach taken is that used in climate impact studies on net primary production by VEMAP Members [Global Biogeochem. Cycles 9, 407 (1995)].
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    • note
    • -6) with the Wilcoxon sign test.
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    • note
    • A 1-km gridded polygon file [Arc World Supplement, 1:3 M scale digital map (ESRI, Redlands, CA, 1995)] defined the spatial extent of 242 countries for which country-level population statistics were available (79). We defined urban spatial extents as a set of geographically referenced city polygons with demographic data (n = 1858) (33) and distributed the remaining country-level urban population evenly across 1-km pixels classified as city lights from remote sensing (34). Lacking digital data to the contrary, we distributed rural population uniformly among digitized points representing populated places [Digital Chart of the World, 1:1 M scale digital map (ESRI, Redlands, CA, 1993)] falling outside of urban spatial extents. A total of 155 countries simultaneously showed water demand data and discharges greater than zero and fell within our 30′ digitized land mass. The remaining 87 countries were mostly small islands and were not considered. For the contemporary setting, we account for 99.7% of the global population (19); 98.4% of the total is assigned water use statistics.
  • 20
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    • note
    • National and sectoral water use statistics were from (19). The mean reporting year was 1986, but the range was from 1970 to 1995. National statistics were normalized to year 1985 by applying usage trends recorded in corresponding regional time series (5). Domestic water demand was computed on a per capita basis for each country and distributed geographically with respect to the 1-km total population field. Industrial usage was applied in proportion to urban population. Grid-based aggregates at 30′ resolution were then determined for domestic plus industrial water demand.
  • 21
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    • note
    • Country-level totals for agricultural water demand were distributed onto 30′ grid cells on the basis of the fraction of each grid cell classified as irrigated land from (35) and prorated on the basis of the ratio of unrealized potential evapotranspiration (i.e., the potential minus the estimated actual) to the potential from (13). Irrigation-dependent population was determined by proportionally assigning national-level population to the corresponding irrigated areas in each country. We reason that entire national populations (and not simply local farmers and agribusiness) benefit from the food and fiber (destined for domestic or export markets) and income produced from irrigated land. A/Q uses mean annual discharge. These relative water demand estimates are thus conservative and assume highly effective storage of surface water for irrigation, such as through reservoir impoundment. We consider irrigated agriculture because it is a major component of water resource infrastructure that is subject to changes in the availability of net runoff. Rain-fed agriculture falls outside this definition, and we have not treated it here.
  • 22
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    • note
    • Rates of increase in water demand to 2025 from regional estimates (5) were applied to the 1985 water withdrawal data set. Future changes in population and urban-to-rural ratios (19) were used to shift the geography of water demands. The distribution of irrigable lands was fixed to that observed under contemporary conditions. Projected water withdrawals in (5) are dependent on water use efficiencies that both increase and decrease for different parts of the world. These estimates were made through extensive consultation of country-level studies and trend analysis based on per unit agricultural, municipal, and industrial water withdrawals; assumptions regarding future technology adoption; and economic capacity to institute efficiency changes.
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    • note
    • Support for this work was through the Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (University of New Hampshire); NASA Earth Observing System (grant NAG5-6137); NSF Division of Atmospheric Sciences (grant ATM-9707953); Office of Polar Programs (grant OPP-9524740); NASA Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (grant NAG5-4785); and the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-FG02-92ER61473). We acknowledge the efforts of B. Fekete and S. Glidden in helping to develop some of the geographically referenced databases used in this study. We also thank three anonymous reviewers for their comments.


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.