Predicting the East Australian Current

Ocean Modelling

Volumn 38, Issue 3-4, 2011, Pages 251-266

  O'Kane, Terence J ^a   Oke, Peter R ^a   Sandery, Paul A ^b  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

^b BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY   (Australia)

Author keywords

East Australian Current; Ensemble prediction; Ocean forecasting

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE SAMPLING; AUSTRAL SUMMERS; BACKGROUND ERRORS; DYNAMICAL INSTABILITIES; EAST AUSTRALIAN CURRENT; ENSEMBLE PERTURBATION; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION; FORECAST ERRORS; INITIAL STATE; MESOSCALE EDDY; NON-LINEAR DYNAMICS; OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION; OCEAN FORECASTING; OCEAN FORECASTS; OPERATIONAL FORECASTING; STATIC BACKGROUND;

DATA PROCESSING; ERRORS;

FORECASTING;

DATA ASSIMILATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ERROR ANALYSIS; OCEANIC CURRENT; PREDICTION;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 79956273149     PISSN: 14635003     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.04.003     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Andrews J., Scully-Power P. The structure of an East Australian Current anticyclonic eddy. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 1976, 6:756-765.
2. Bowen M., Wilkin J., Emery W. Variability and forcing of the East Australian Current. J. Geophys. Res. 2005, 110:C03019.
3. Bowler N., Arribas A., Mylne K., Robertson K., Beare S. The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 2009, 134:703-722.
4. Brandt S. Effects of a warm-core eddy on fish distributions in the Tasman Sea off East Australia. Marine Ecol. 1981, 6:19-33.
5. Brassington G., Oke P., Pugh T. Operational Ocean Prediction In Australia 2006, vol. 5. World Scientific Publishing, pp. 87-95 (Chapter 11).
6. Brassington G., Pugh T., Spillman C., Schultz E., Beggs H., Schiller A., Oke P. Development of operational oceanography and servicing in Australia. J. Res. Practice Inform. Technol. 2007, 39:151-164.
7. Charney J. The feasibility of a global observation and analysis experiment. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 1966, 47:200-220.
8. Corazza M., Kalnay E., Patil D., Yang S.-C., Morss R., Cai M., Szunyogh I., Hunt B., Yorke J. Use of the breeding technique to estimate the structure of the analysis errors of the day. Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. 2003, 10:233-243.
9. Counillon F., Bertino L. High-resolution ensemble forecast for the Gulf of Mexico eddies and fronts. Ocean Dyn. 2009, 59:83-95.
10. Cresswell G. Ocean currents measured concurrently on and off the Sydney area continental shelf. Australian J. Marine Freshwater Res. 1974, 25:427-438.
11. Cresswell G. The coalescence of two East Australian Current warm-core eddies. Science 1982, 8:161-164.
12. Cresswell G. Physical evolution of Tasman sea eddy. Australian J. Marine Freshwater Res. 1983, 34:495-513.
13. Cresswell G. Nutrient enrichment of the Sydney continental shelf. Australian J. Marine Freshwater Res. 1994, 45:677-691.
14. Cummings J., Bertino L., Brasseur P., Fukumori I., Kamachi M., Martin M., Oke P.R., Testut C.E., Verron J., Weaver A. Oc ean data assimilation systems for GODAE. Oceanography 2009, 22(3):96-109.
15. Evensen G. The ensemble Kalman filter: theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dyn. 2003, 53:343-367.
16. Frederiksen J., O'Kane T. Entropy, closures and subgrid modeling. Entropy 2008, 10:635-683.
17. Fujii Y., Tsujino H., Usui N., Nakano H., Kamachi M. Application of singular vector analysis to the Kuroshio large meander. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113:C07026.
18. Gibbs M., Marchesiello P., Middleton J. Nutrient enrichment of Jervis Bay, Australia, during the massive 1992 coccolithophorid bloom. Marine Freshwater Res. 1997, 48:473-478.
19. Godfrey J., Cresswell G., Golding T.J., Pearce A., Boyd R. The separation of the East Australian Current. J. Phys. Oceanography 1980, 10:430-440.
20. Griffies S., Hallberg R. Biharmonic frction with a smagorinsky-like viscosity for use in large-scale eddy-permitting ocean models. Mon. Weath. Rev. 2000, 128:2935-2946.
21. Griffies, S., Harrison, M., Pacanowski, R., Rosati, A., 2003. A technical guide to MOM4 GFDL, Ocean technical group report No. 5.
22. Houtekamer P., Mitchell H. Data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Weath. Rev. 1998, 126:796-811.
23. Hurlburt H., Brassington G.B., Drillet Y., Kamachi M., Benkiran M., Bourdalle-Badie R., Chassignet E.P., Jacobbs G.A., Galloudec O.L., Lellouche J.-M., Metzger E.J., Oke P.R., Pugh T.F., Schiller A., Smedstad O.M., Tranchant B., Tsujino H., Usui N., Walcraft A.J. High-resolution global and basin-scale ocean analyses and forecasts oceanography. Oceanography 2009, 22(3):80-97.
24. Huyer A., Smith R.L., Stabeno P.J., Church J.A., White N.J. Currents off south-eastern Australia: Results from the Australian coastal experiment. Australian J. Marine Freshwater Res. 1988, 39:245-288.
25. Kalnay E. Atmospheric Modelling, Data Assimilation and Predictability 2003, Cambridge University Press.
26. Kasahara A. Simulation experiments for meteorological observing systems for GARP. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 1972, 53:252-264.
27. Leith C. Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Weath. Rev. 1974, 102:409-418.
28. Lorenz E. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 1963, 20:130-141.
29. Marchesiello P., Middleton J.H. Modeling the East Australian Current in the Western Tasman Sea. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 2000, 30:2956-2971.
30. Mata M., Tomczak M., Wijffels S., Church J. East Australian Current volume transports at 30S: Estimates from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment hydrographic sections PR11/P6 and the PCM3 current meter array. J. Geophys. Res. 2000, 105:28,509-28,526.
31. Mata M., Wijffels S., Church J., Tomczak M. Eddy shedding and energy conversion in the East Australian Current. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111:C09034.
32. Mitchell H., Houtekamer P., Pellerin G. Ensemble size, balance, and model-error representation in an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Weath. Rev. 2002, 130:2791G2808.
33. Miyazawa Y., Yamane S., Guo X., Yamagata T. Ensemble forecast of the Kuroshio meandering. J. Geophys. Res. 2005, 110.
34. Molteni F., Buizza R., Palmer T., Petroliagis T. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Meteor. Soc. 1996, 122:73-119.
35. Nilsson C., Cresswell G.R. The formation and evolution of East Australian Current warm-core eddies. Progress Oceanogr. 1980, 9:133-183.
36. O'Kane T., Frederiksen J. A comparison of statistical dynamical and ensemble prediction methods during blocking. J. Atmos. Sci. 2008, 65:426-447.
37. O'Kane T., Frederiksen J. Comparison of statistical dynamical, square root and ensemble Kalman filters. Entropy 2008, 10:684-721.
38. O'Kane T., Naughton M., Xiao Y. The Australian community climate and earth system simulator Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction Scheme. ANZIAM J. 2008, 50:C385-C398.
39. Oke P., Balmaseda M., Benkiran M., Cummings J.A., Dombrowsky E., Fujii Y., Guinehut S., Larnicol G., Traon P.-Y.L., Martin M.J. Observing system evaluations using GODAE systems. Oceanography 2009, 144-153.
40. Oke P., Brassington G., Griffin D., Schiller A. The Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System (BODAS). Ocean Modell. 2008, 21:46-70.
41. Oke P., Griffin D. The cold-core eddy and strong upwelling off the coast of New South Wales in early 2007. Deep Sea Research 2011, 58:574-591.
42. Pazó D., Rodríguez M., López J. Spatio-temporal evolution of perturbations in ensembles initialized by bred, Lyapunov and singular vectors. Tellus 2010, 62A:10-23.
43. Ridgway K., Dunn J. Mesoscale structure of the mean East Australian Current system and its relationship with topography. Progress Oceanogr. 2003, 56:189-222.
44. Ridgway K., Godfrey J. Seasonal cycle of the East Australian Current. J. Geophys. Res. 1997, 102:22921-22936.
45. Roughan M., Middleton J. A comparison of observed upwelling mechanisms off the east coast of Australia. Continental Shelf Res. 2002, 22:2551-2572.
46. Sandery, P., Brassington, G.B., 2009. Coupled tropical cyclone modelling and adaptive dynamical initialization. CAWCR Technical Report. (017), 50-54.
47. Sandery P., Brassington G.B., Craig A., Pugh T.- Impacts of ocean-atmosphere coupling on tropical cyclone intensity change and ocean prediction in the Australian region. Mon. Weath. Rev. 2010, 138(6):2074-2091.
48. Sandery P., Brassington G.B., Freeman J. Adaptive nonlinear dynamical initialization. J. Geophys. Res. 2011, 116:C01021.
49. Schiller A., Oke P., Brassington G., Entel M., Fiedler R., Griffin D., Mansbridge J. Eddy-resolving ocean circulation in the Asian-Australian region inferred from an ocean reanalysis effort. Progress Oceanogr. 2008, 76:334-365.
50. Seaman R., Bourke W., Steinle P., Hart T., Embery G., Naughton M., Rikus L. Evolution of the Bureau of Meteorology's global assimilation and prediction system. Aust. Met. Mag. 1995, 44:1-18.
51. Smagorinsky J. Problems and promises of deterministic extended range forecasting. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 1969, 50:286-311.
52. Toth Z., Kalnay E. Ensemble forecasting at NMC. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 1993, 74:2317-2330.
53. Toth Z., Kalnay E. Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Weath. Rev. 1997, 125:3297-3319.
54. Tracton M., Kalnay E. Operational ensemble prediction at National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Weath. Forecasting 1993, 8:379-398.
55. Tranter D., Carpenter D., Leech G. The coastal enrichment effect of the East Australian Current eddy field. Deep Sea Research 1986, 33:1705-1728.
56. Trevisan A., Pancotti F. Periodic orbits, Lyapunov vectors, and singular vectors in the Lorenz system. J. Atmos. Sci. 1998, 55:390-398.
57. Wei M., Toth Z., Wobus R., Zhu Y. Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system. Tellus 2008, 60A:62-79.
58. Wei M., Toth Z., Wobus R., Zhu Y., Bishop C., Wang X. Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP. Tellus 2006, 58A:28-44.
59. Wilkin J., Zhang W. Modes of mesoscale sea surface height and temperature variability in the East Australian Current. J. Geophys. Res. 2007, 112:C01013.
60. Yin X.-Q., Oey L.-Y. Bred-ensemble forecast of loop currents and rings. Ocean Modell. 2007, 17:300-326.