Effect of complexity on marine ecosystem models

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Volumn 253, Issue , 2003, Pages 1-16

  Fulton, Elizabeth A ^a   Smith, Anthony D M ^a   Johnson, Craig R ^b  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

Author keywords

Complexity; Ecosystem; Model; Model scope; Model structure; Multispecies

Indexed keywords

COMPLEXITY; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; MARINE ECOSYSTEM;

EID: 0037701976     PISSN: 01718630     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/meps253001     Document Type: Review

References (103)

1. Andersen KP, Ursin E (1977) A multispecies extension to the beverton and holt theory of fishing, with accounts of phosphorus circulation and primary production. Medd Danm Fisk-Havunders NS 7:319-435
2. Baretta JW, Ebenhöh W, Ruardij P (1995) The European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model, a complex marine ecosystem model. Neth J Sea Res 33:233-246
3. Baretta-Bekker JG, Baretta JW (eds) (1997) Special issue: European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model II. J Sea Res 38
4. Bartell SM, Cale WG, O'Neill RV, Gardner RH (1988) Aggregation error: research objectives and relevant model structure. Ecol Model 41:157-168
5. Barthel KG, Goñi R (1995) Preface. Neth J Sea Res 33:229
6. Bax N, Eliassen JE (1990) Multispecies analysis in Balsfjord, northern Norway: solution and sensitivity analysis of a simple ecosystem model. J Cons Int Explor Mer 47:175-204
7. Beck MB (1999) Coping with ever larger problems, models, and databases. Water Sci Technol 39:1-11
8. Begon M, Mortimer M (1986) Population ecology: a unified study of animals and plants. Blackwell Science Publications, London, Melbourne, Boston
9. Bosserman RW (1980) Complexity measures for assessment of environmental impact in ecosystem networks. In: Proceedings of the Pittsburgh Conference of Modelling and Simulation, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, April 20-23, 1980, p 811-820
10. Bosserman RW (1982) Structural comparisons for four lake ecosystem models. In: Troncale L (ed) Systems science and science, Proceedings of the 26th Annual Meeting of the Society for General Systems Research with the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C., January 5-9, 1982. Society for General Systems Research: Louisville, Kentucky, p 559-568
11. Botkin DB (1977) Bits, bytes, and IBP. BioScience 27:385
12. Breckling B, Müller F (1994) Current trends in ecological modelling at the 8th ISEM conference on the state-of-the-art. Ecol Model 75/76:667-675
13. Brooks RJ, Tobias AM (1996) Choosing the best model: level of detail, complexity, and model performance. Mathl Comput Model 24:1-14
14. Butterworth DS (1989) The Benguela Ecology Programme: successful and appropriate? S Afr J Mar Sci 85:633-643
15. Cale WG, Odell PL (1980) Behaviour of aggregate state variable in ecosystem models. Math Biosci 49:121-137
16. Cale WG, O'Neill RV, Gardner RH (1983) Aggregation error in nonlinear ecological models. J Theor Biol 100:539-550
17. Christensen V (1992) Network analysis of trophic interactions in aquatic ecosystems. PhD thesis, Royal Danish School of Pharmacy, Copenhagen
18. Christensen V, Walters CJ, Pauly D (2000) ECOPATH with ECOSIM: a user's guide. October 2000 edn. Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver
19. Cohen JE, Newman CM (1988) Dynamic basis of food web organization. Ecology 69:1655-1664
20. Costanza R, Maxwell T (1994) Resolution and predictability: an approach to the scaling problem. Land Ecol 9:47-57
21. Costanza R, Sklar FH (1985) Articulation, accuracy and effectiveness of mathematical models: a review of freshwater wetland applications. Ecol Model 27:45-68
22. DeCoursey DG (1992) Developing models with more detail: do more algorithms give more truth? Weed Technol 6:709-715
23. Duplisea DE (2000) The ecological hierarchy, model complexity, predictive ability and robust management. In: Report on the Young Scientists Conference on Marine Ecosystem Perspectives, ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 240. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen, p 59-60
24. Duplisea DE, Bravington MV (1999) Harvesting a size-structured ecosystem. ICES 1999/Z:01 Ecosystem management. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen
25. Edwards AM (2001) Adding detritus to a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model: a dynamical-systems approach. J Plankton Res 23:389-413
26. Edwards AM, Brindley J (1999) Zooplankton mortality and the dynamical behaviour of plankton population models. Bull Math Biol 61:303-339
27. Elert M, Butler A, Chen J, Dovlete C and 5 others (1999) Effects of model complexity on uncertainty estimates. J Environ Radioact 42:255-270
28. Fasham MJR (1993) Modelling the marine biota. In: Heimann M (ed) The global carbon cycle. Springer-Verlag, New York
29. Fransz HG, Mommaerts JP, Radach G (1991) Ecological modelling of the North Sea. Neth J Sea Res 28:67-140
30. Fulton EA (2001) The effects of model structure and complexity on the behaviour and performance of marine ecosystem models. PhD thesis, School of Zoology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
31. Fulton EA, Smith ADM, Johnson CR (in press) Mortality and predation in ecosystem models: is it important how these are expressed? Ecol Model
32. Gao H, Wei H, Sun W, Zhai X (2000) Functions used in biological models and their influences on simulations. Indian J Mar Sci 29:230-237
33. Gardner MR, Ashby WR (1970) Connectance of large dynamic (cybernetic) systems: critical values for stability. Nature 228:784
34. Gardner RH, Cale WG, O'Neill RV (1982) Robust analysis of aggregation error. Ecology 63:1771-1779
35. Håkanson L (1995) Optimal size of predictive models. Ecol Model 78:195-204
36. Håkanson L (1997) Modelling of radiocesium in lakes - on predictive power and lessons for the future. Stud Environ Sci 68:3-45
37. Halfon E (1979) Computer-based development of large-scale ecological models: problems and prospects. In: Innis GS, O'Neill RV (eds) Systems analysis of ecosystems. International Co-operative Publishing House, Fairland, MD
38. Halfon E (1983a) Is there a best model structure? I. Modeling the fate of a toxic substance in a lake. Ecol Model 20:135-152
39. Halfon E (1983b) Is there a best model structure? II. Comparing the model structures of different fate models. Ecol Model 20:153-163
40. Hassell MP, Commins HN (1978) Sigmoid functional responses and population stability. Theor Popul Biol 14:62-67
41. Hoch T, Garreau P (1998) Phytoplankton dynamics in the English Channel: a simplified three-dimensional approach. J Mar Syst 16:133-150
42. Hollowed AB, Bax N, Beamish R, Collie J, Fogarty M, Livingston P, Pope J, Rice JC (2000) Are multispecies models an improvement on single-species models for measuring fishing impacts on marine ecosystems? ICES J Mar Sci 57:707-719
43. Hurtt GC, Armstrong RA (1996) A pelagic ecosystem model calibrated with BATS data. Deep-Sea Res Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 43:653-683
44. Innis GS, Rexstad E (1983) Simulation and model simplification techniques. Simulation 41:7-15
45. Iwasa Y, Andreasen V, Levin S (1987) Aggregation in model ecosystems. I: Perfect aggregation. Ecol Model 37:287-302
46. Jester DB Jr, Garling DL Jr, Tipton AR, Lackey RT (1977) A general population dynamics theory for largemouth bass. FWS 1-77, Virgina Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA
47. Johnson CR (1997) Self-organizing in spatial competition systems. In: Klomp NI, Lunt ID (eds) Frontiers in ecology - building the links. Elsevier, Amsterdam, p 245-263
48. Johnson CR, Seinen I (2002) Selection for restraint in competitive ability in spatial competition systems. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B Biol Sci 269:655-663
49. Jørgensen SE (1994) Fundamentals of ecological modelling, 2nd edn Developments in environmental modelling. 19. Elsevier, Amsterdam
50. Jørgensen SE, Patten BC, Straškraka M (1992) Ecosystems emerging: toward an ecology of complex systems in a complex future. Ecol Model 62:1-27
51. Kremer JN, Kremer P (1982) A three-trophic level estuarine model: synergism of two mechanistic simulations. Ecol Model 415:145-157
52. Lee K, Fishwick PA (1998) Generation of multimodels and selection of the optimal model for real-time simulation. In: Sisti AF (ed) Enabling technology for simulation science II, Proc SPIE 3369:164-175
53. Ludwig D, Walters CJ (1981) Measurement errors and uncertainty in parameter estimates for stock recruitment. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 38:711-720
54. Ludwig D, Walters CJ (1985) Are age-structured models appropriate for catch-effort data? Can J Fish Aquat Sci 42:1066-1072
55. MacArthur RH (1955) Fluctuations of animal populations and a measure of community stability. Ecology 36:533-536
56. Mace PM (2001) A new role for MSY in single-species and ecosystem approaches to fisheries stock assessment and management. Fish Fish 2:2-32
57. May RM (1974) Stability and complexity in model ecosystems, 2nd edn. Monographs in population biology, No. 6. Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
58. May RM (1973) Stability and complexity in model ecosystems. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
59. May RM (1976) Theoretical ecology. Saunders, Philadelphia
60. McCann KS (2000) The diversity-stability debate. Nature 405:228-233
61. Murray AG (2001) The use of simple models in the design and calibration of a dynamic 2D model of a semi-enclosed Australian bay. Ecol Model 136:15-30
62. Murray A, Parslow J (1997) Port Phillip Bay integrated model: final report. Technical report No. 44. Port Phillip Bay Environmental Study. CSIRO, Canberra, Australia
63. Murray AG, Parslow JS (1999a) Modelling of nutrient impacts in Port Phillip Bay - a semi-enclosed marine Australian ecosystem. Mar Freshw Res 50:597-611
64. Murray AG, Parslow JS (1999b) The analysis of alternative formulations in a simple model of a coastal ecosystem. Ecol Model 119:149-166
65. Nihoul JCJ (1998a) Optimum complexity in ecohydrodynamic modelling: an ecosystem dynamics standpoint. J Mar Syst 16:3-5
66. Nihoul JCJ (1998b) Modelling marine ecosystems as a discipline in Earth Science. Earth-Sci Rev 44:1-13
67. Nihoul JCJ, Delhez EJM (1998) Preface, 28th International Liège Colloquium on Ocean Hydrodynamics: Liège, May 6-10, 1996: Modelling hydrodynamically dominated marine ecosystems. J Mar Syst 16:1-2
68. Nihoul JCJ, Djenidi S (1998) Chapter 18: Coupled physical, chemical and biological models. In: Brink KH, Robinson AR (eds) The sea. John Wiley & Sons, New York
69. O'Neill RV (1975) Modeling in the eastern deciduous forest biome. In: Patten BC (ed) System analysis and simulation in ecology III. Academic Press, New York, London, p 49-72
70. O'Neill RV (1979) Transmutations across hierarchical levels. In: Innis GS O'Neill RV (eds) Systems analysis of ecosystems. International Co-operative, Fairland, MD, p 59-78
71. O'Neill RV, Rust B (1979) Aggregation error in ecological models. Ecol Model 7:91-105
72. Optiz S (1996) Trophic interactions in Caribbean coral reefs. ICLARM Tech Rep 43
73. Pahl-Wostl C (1997) Dynamic structure of a food web model: comparison with a food chain model. Ecol Model 100:103-123
74. Patten BC, Egloff DA, Richardson TH (1975) Total ecosystem model for a cove in Lake Texoma. In: Patten BC (ed) System analysis and simulation in ecology III. Academic Press, New York, London
75. Pimm SL (1982) Food webs. Chapman & Hall, London
76. Pimm SL, Lawton JH (1978) On feeding on more than one trophic level. Nature 275:542-544
77. Punt AE, Leslie RW (1995) The effects of future consumption by the Cape fur seal on catches and catch rates of the Cape hakes. 1. Feeding and diet of the Cape hakes Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus. S A J Mar Sci 16:37-55
78. Rastetter EB, King AW, Cosby BJ, Hornberger GH, O'Neill RV, Hobbie JH (1992) Aggregating fine-scale ecological knowledge to model coarser-scale attributes of ecosystems. Ecol Appl 2:55-70
79. Reichert P, Omlin M (1997) On the usefulness of overparameterized ecological models. Ecol Model 95:289-299
80. Sainsbury K, Punt AE, Smith ADM (2000) Design of operational management strategies for achieving fishery ecosystem objectives. ICES J Mar Sci 57:731-741
81. Siljak DD (1974) Connective stability of complex ecosystems. Nature 249:280
82. Siljak DD (1976) When is a complex ecosystem stable? Math Biosci 25:25-50
83. Silvert WL (1981) Principles of ecosystem modelling. In: Longhurst AR (ed) Analysis of marine ecosystems. Academic Press, New York, p 651-676
84. Silvert WL (1996) Size-aggregation in models of aquatic ecosystems. Sci Total Environ 183:107-114
85. Steele JH (1998) From carbon flux to regime shift. Fish Oceanogr 7:176-181
86. Steele JH, Henderson EW (1992) The role of predation in plankton models. J Plank Res 14:157-172
87. Sugihara G, Garcia S, Gulland JA, Lawton JH and 7 others (1984) Ecosystem dynamics: Group Report. In: May RM (ed) Exploitation of marine communities, Dahlem Konferenzen 1984. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, p 131-153
88. Tett P, Wilson H (2000) From biogeochemical to ecological models of marine microplankton. J Mar Syst 25:431-446
89. van Tongeren OFR (1995) Data analysis or simulation model: a critical evaluation of some methods. Ecol Model 78:51-60
90. Waide JB, Webster JR (1976) Engineering systems analysis: applicability to ecosystems. In: Patten BC (ed) Systems analysis and simulation in ecology. IV. Academic Press, New York, p 329-371
91. Walters C (1998) ECOSIM and ECOSPACE: basic considerations. In: Pauly D, Weingartner G (eds) Use of ECOPATH and ECOSIM to evaluate strategies for sustainable exploitation of multi-species resources. Proceedings of a Workshop held March 25-27, 1998. Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia: Vancouver, Canada, p 11-14
92. Walters C, Kitchell JF (2001) Cultivation/depensation effects on juvenile survival and recruitment: implications for the theory of fishing. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 58:39-50
93. Walters C, Christensen V, Pauly D (1997) Structuring dynamic models of exploited ecosystems from trophic mass-balance assessments. Rev Fish Biol Fish 7:139-172
94. Walters C, Pauly D, Christensen V (1999) ECOSPACE: prediction of mesoscale spatial patterns in trophic relationships of exploited ecosystems, with emphasis on the impacts of marine protected areas. Ecosystems 2:539-554
95. Watt KEF (1975) Critique and comparison of biome ecosystem modeling. In: Patten BC (ed) System analysis and simulation in ecology, III. Academic Press: New York, London, p 139-152
96. Wiegert RG (1975) Simulation modeling of the algal-fly components of a thermal ecosystem: effects of spatial heterogeneity, time delays, and model condensation. In: Patten BC (ed) System analysis and simulation in ecology, III. Academic Press, New York, p 157-181
97. Wiegert RG (1977) A model of a thermal spring food chain. In: Hall C, Day JW (eds) Ecosystem modelling in theory and practice. Wiley & Sons, New York, p 290-315
98. Yachi S, Loreau M (1999) Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in fluctuating environments: the insurance hypothesis. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 96:1463-1468
99. Yearsley JR, Lettenmaier DP (1987) Model complexity and data worth: an assessment of changes in the global carbon budget. Ecol Model 39:201-226
100. Yodzis P (2001a) Must top predators be culled for the sake of fisheries? Trends Ecol Evol 16:78-84
101. Yodzis P (2001b) Culling predators to protect fisheries: a case of accumulating uncertainties-response. Trends Ecol Evol 16:282-283
102. Yool A (1998) The dynamics of open-ocean plankton ecosystem models. PhD thesis, Ecology and Epidemiology, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Warwick
103. Zeigler BP (1976) The aggregation problem. In: Patten BC (ed) System analysis and simulation in ecology, IV. Academic Press, New York, p 299-311