Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 decadal predictions

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 44, Issue 1-2, 2015, Pages 543-557

  Bombardi, Rodrigo J ^a   Zhu, Jieshun ^b   Marx, Lawrence ^b   Huang, Bohua ^a,b   Chen, Hua ^a   Lu, Jian ^d   Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi ^a   Krishnamurthy, V ^b   Colfescu, Ioana ^a   Kinter, James L ^a,b   Kumar, Arun ^c   Hu, Zeng Zhen ^c   Moorthi, Shrinivas ^c   Tripp, Patrick ^c   Wu, Xingren ^c   Schneider, Edwin K ^a,b  

^a GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b CENTER FOR OCEAN LAND ATMOSPHERE STUDIES   (United States)

^c CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

^d PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Biases; CFSv2; CMIP5; Decadal forecast and prediction; Skill; Volcanic forcing

Indexed keywords

AEROSOL; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DECADAL VARIATION; MELTING; MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION; OVERTURN; SEA ICE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; INDIAN OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (WEST);

EID: 84920843313     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Balmaseda MA, Mogensen K, Molteni F, Weaver AT (2010) The NEMOVAR-COMBINE ocean reanalysis. COMBINE technical report no. 1, 11 p. (Available at http://www.combinep)
2. Balmaseda MA, Trenberth KE, Källén E (2013) Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content. Geophys Res Lett 40:1754–1759. doi:10.1002/grl.50382
3. Bellucci A, Gualdi S, Masina S et al (2012) Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses. Clim Dyn 40:1483–1497. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1468-z
4. Bellucci A, Haarsma R, Gualdi S et al (2014) An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2164-y
5. Doblas-Reyes FJ, Andreu-Burillo I, Chikamoto Y et al (2013) Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction. Nat Commun 4:1715. doi:10.1038/ncomms2704
6. Ek MB, Mitchell KE, Lin Y et al (2003) Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model. J Geophys Res 108:8851. doi:10.1029/2002JD003296
7. García-Serrano J, Doblas-Reyes FJ (2012) On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast. Clim Dyn 39:2025–2040. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1413-1
8. Goddard L, Kumar A, Solomon A et al (2012) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2
9. Griffies SM, Harrison MJ, Pacanowski RC, Rosati A (2004) A technical guide to MOM4. GFDL Ocean group technical report no. 5, p 281
10. Guemas V, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Lienert F et al (2012) Identifying the causes of the poor decadal climate prediction skill over the North Pacific. J Geophys Res Atmos 117:D20111. doi:10.1029/2012JD018004
11. Guemas V, Corti S, García-Serrano J et al (2013) The Indian Ocean: the region of highest skill worldwide in decadal climate prediction*. J Clim 26:726–739. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00049.1
12. Huang B, Hu Z-Z, Schneider EK et al (2011) Influences of tropical–extratropical interaction on the multidecadal AMOC variability in the NCEP climate forecast system. Clim Dyn 39:531–555. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1258-z
13. Huang B, Zhu J, Marx L et al (2014) Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and Arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions. Clim Dyn (submitted)
14. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
15. Keenlyside NS, Latif M, Jungclaus J et al (2008) Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453:84–88. doi:10.1038/nature06921
16. Kim H-M, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2012) Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Geophys Res Lett 39. doi:10.1029/2012GL051644
17. Kirtman B, Power SB, Adedoyin JA et al (2013) Near-term climate change: projections and predictability. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
18. Krishnamurthy L, Krishnamurthy V (2013) Decadal scale oscillations and trend in the Indian monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 43:319–331. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1870-1
19. Kumar A, Chen M, Zhang L et al (2012) An Analysis of the Nonstationarity in the bias of sea surface temperature forecasts for the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2. Mon Weather Rev 140:3003–3016. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00335.1
20. Meehl GA, Goddard L, Boer G et al (2014) Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95:243–267. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1
21. Murphy AH (1988) Skill scores based on the mean squared error and their relationships to the correlation coefficient. Mon Weather Rev 116:2417–2424
22. Pohlmann H, Jungclaus JH, Köhl A et al (2009) Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: effects on the North Atlantic. J Clim 22:3926–3938. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2535.1
23. Robock A (2000) Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev Geophys 38:191–219. doi:10.1029/1998RG000054
24. Saha S, Moorthi S, Pan H-L et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057. doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1
25. Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X et al (2014) The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1
26. Smith DM, Cusack S, Colman AW et al (2007) Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317:796–799. doi:10.1126/science.1139540
27. Smith DM, Eade R, Pohlmann H (2013) A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction. Clim Dyn 41:3325–3338. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2
28. Swingedouw D, Mignot J, Labetoulle S et al (2012) Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model. Clim Dyn 40:2381–2399. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1516-8
29. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
30. Trenberth KE (2002) Evolution of El Niño–southern oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures. J Geophys Res 107:4065. doi:10.1029/2000JD000298
31. Van Oldenborgh GJ, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Wouters B, Hazeleger W (2012) Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble. Clim Dyn 38:1263–1280. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1313-4
32. Weisheimer A, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN et al (2009) ENSEMBLES: a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophys Res Lett 36:L21711. doi:10.1029/2009GL040896
33. Xue Y, Huang B, Hu Z-Z et al (2010) An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Clim Dyn 37:2511–2539. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0954-4
34. Xue Y, Chen M, Kumar A et al (2013) Prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 26:5358–5378. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00600.1
35. Yeager S, Karspeck A, Danabasoglu G et al (2012) A decadal prediction case study: late twentieth-century North Atlantic Ocean heat content. J Clim 25:5173–5189. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00595.1
36. Zhu J, Huang B, Balmaseda MA (2012a) An ensemble estimation of the variability of upper-ocean heat content over the tropical Atlantic Ocean with multi-ocean reanalysis products. Clim Dyn 39:1001–1020. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1189-8
37. Zhu J, Huang B, Marx L et al (2012b) Ensemble ENSO hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses. Geophys Res Lett 39:L09602. doi:10.1029/2012GL051503