ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions - Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 36, Issue 21, 2009, Pages

  Weisheimer, A ^a   Doblas Reyes, F J ^a   Palmer, T N ^a   Alessandri, A ^b   Arribas, A ^c   Deque M ^d   Keenlyside, N ^e   MacVean, M ^a,c   Navarra, A ^b   Rogel, P ^f  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^b CENTRO EURO MEDITERRANEO SUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI   (Italy)

^c MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^d MÉTÉO FRANCE   (France)

^e GEOMAR HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH KIEL   (Germany)

^f CERFACS   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL PREDICTION; DATA SETS; DEMETER; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION; HINDCASTS; IMPROVED MODELS; INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY; MULTI-MODEL; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; OCEAN CIRCULATION MODELS; PROBABILISTIC SKILL; RMS ERRORS;

ERRORS; OCEANOGRAPHY; SYSTEMATIC ERRORS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

SIMULATORS;

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DATA SET; DEMETER; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; HINDCASTING; SATELLITE DATA; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (TROPICAL);

EID: 72049088496     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040896     Document Type: Article

References (12)

1. Balmaseda, M. A., A. Vidard, and D. L. T. Anderson (2008), The ECMWF ORA-S3 ocean analysis system, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 3018-3034, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2433.1.
2. Collins, W. J., et al. (2008), Evaluation of the HadGEM2 model, Tech. Note HCTN 74, Met Off. Hadley Cent., Exeter, U. K.. (Available at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publications/HCTN/index.html)
3. Daget, N., A. T. Weaver, and M. A. Balmaseda (2009), Ensemble estimation of background-error variances in a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for the global ocean, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 1071-1094, doi:10.1002/qj.412.
4. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., R. Hagedorn, and T. N. Palmer (2005), The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part II: Calibration and combination, Tellus, Ser. A, 57, 234-252.
5. Jungclaus, J. H., N. S. Keenlyside, M. Botzet, H. Haak, J.-J. Luo, M. Latif, J. Marotzke, U. Mikolajewicz, and E. Roeckner (2006), Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, J. Clim., 19, 3952-3972, doi:10.1175/JCLI3827.1. (Pubitemid 44405152)
6. Keenlyside, N. S., M. Latif, M. Botzet, J. Jungclaus, and U. Schulzweida (2005), A coupled method for initializing El Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts using sea surface temperature, Tellus, Ser. A, 57, 340-356.
7. Krishnamurti, T. N., et al. (1999), Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model superensemble, Science, 285, 1548-1550, doi:10.1126/science.285.5433.1548.
8. Palmer, T. N., et al. (2004), Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER), Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 853-872, doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853.
9. Salas Mélia, D. (2002), A global coupled sea ice-ocean model, Ocean Modell., 4, 137-172, doi:10.1016/S1463-5003(01)00015-4.
10. Shukla, J., R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller, T. N. Palmer, and J. Slingo (2009), Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible: A declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 175-178, doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2759.1.
11. van Oldenborgh, G. J., and G. Burgers (2005), Searching for decadal variations in ENSO precipitation teleconnections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023110.
12. Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller (2008), Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 241-260, doi:10.1002/qj.210.