Influences of tropical-extratropical interaction on the multidecadal AMOC variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 39, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 531-555

  Huang, Bohua ^a,b   Hu, Zeng Zhen ^c   Schneider, Edwin K ^a,b   Wu, Zhaohua ^d   Xue, Yan ^c   Klinger, Barry ^a,b  

^a GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b CENTER FOR OCEAN LAND ATMOSPHERE STUDIES   (United States)

^c CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

^d FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL VARIATION; ANTICYCLONE; ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION; CLIMATE FEEDBACK; DECADAL VARIATION; MIDLATITUDE ENVIRONMENT; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING; WIND STRESS;

EID: 84861358499     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1258-z     Document Type: Article

References (88)

1. Alvarez-Garcia F, Latif M, Biastoch A (2008) On multidecadal and quasi-decadal North Atlantic variability. J Clim 21: 3433-3452.
2. Balmaseda MA, Smith GC, Haines K, Anderson D, Palmer TN, Vidard A (2007) Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis. Geophys Res Lett 34: L23615. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL031645.
3. Behringer DW, Xue Y (2004) Evaluation of the global ocean data assimilation system at NCEP: the Pacific Ocean. In: Eighth symposium on integrated observing and assimilation systems for atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, AMS 84th annual meeting, Washington State Convention and Trade Center, Seattle, Washington, 11-15.
4. Böning CW, Scheinert M, Dengg J, Biastoch A, Funk A (2006) Decadal variability of subpolar gyre transport and its reverberation in the North Atlantic overturning. Geophys Res Lett 33: L21S01. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL026906.
5. Broccoli AJ, Dahl KA, Stouffer RJ (2006) Response of the ITCZ to Northern Hemisphere cooling. Geophys Res Lett 33: L01702. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL024546.
6. Chang P, et al (2008) Oceanic link between abrupt changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and the African monsoon. Nat Geosci 1: 444-448.
7. Chang P, Ji L, Li H (1997) A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions. Nature 385: 516-518.
8. Cheng W, Bleck R, Rooth C (2004) Multi-decadal thermohaline variability in an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Clim Dyn 22: 573-590.
9. Chiang JCH, Bitz CM (2005) Influence of high latitude ice cover on the marine intertropical convergence zone. Clim Dyn 25: 477-496.
10. Chiang JCH, Cheng W, Bitz CM (2008) Fast teleconnections to the tropical Atlantic sector from Atlantic thermohaline adjustment. Geophys Res Lett 35: L07704. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL033292.
11. Czaja A, Marshall J (2001) Observations of atmosphere-ocean coupling in the North Atlantic. Q J R Meteorol Soc 127: 1893-1916.
12. Dahl KA, Broccoli AJ, Stouffer RJ (2005) Assessing the role of North Atlantic freshwater forcing in millennial scale climate variability: a tropical Atlantic perspective. Clim Dyn 24: 325-346.
13. Danabasoglu G (2008) On multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the community climate system model version 3. J Clim 21: 5524-5544.
14. Delworth TL, Greatbatch RJ (2000) Multidecadal thermohaline circulation variability driven by atmospheric surface flux forcing. J Clim 13: 1481-1495.
15. Delworth TL, Mann ME (2000) Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 16: 661-676.
16. Delworth TL, Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1993) Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 6: 1993-2011.
17. Delworth TL, Zhang R, Mann ME (2007) Decadal to centennial variability of the Atlantic from observations and models. In: Schmittner A, Chiang J, Hemmings S (eds) Ocean circulation: mechanisms and impacts. Geophy Monogr Ser, vol 173. pp 131-148.
18. Dong BW, Sutton RT (2002) Adjustment of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system to a sudden change in the thermohaline circulation. Geophys Res Lett 29: 1728. doi: 10. 1029/2002GL015229.
19. Dong BW, Sutton RT (2005) Mechanism of interdecadal thermohaline circulation variability in a coupled ocean-atmoshere GCM. J Clim 18: 1117-1135.
20. Eden C, Willebrand J (2000) Mechanism of interannual to decadal variability of the North Atlantic circulation. J Clim 14: 2266-2280.
21. Enfield DB, Mestas-Nunez AM PJ, Trimble PJ (2001) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U. S. Geophys Res Lett 28: 2077-2080.
22. Folland CK, Palmer TN, Parker DE (1986) Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures. Nature 320: 602-607.
23. Frankcombe LM, Dijkstra HA (2009) Coherent multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea level. Geophys Res Lett 36: L15604. doi: 10. 1029/2009GL039455.
24. Frankcombe LM, von der Heydt A, Dijstra HA (2010) North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability: an investigation of dominant time scales and processes. J Clim 23: 3626-3638.
25. Ganachaud A, Wunsch C (2000) Improved estimates of global ocean circulation, heat transport and mixing from hydrographic data. Nature 408: 453-457.
26. Gent PR, McWilliams JC (1990) Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models. J Phys Oceanogr 20: 150-155.
27. Ghil M, Allen MR, Dettinger MD, Ide K, Kondrashov D, Mann ME, Robertson AW, Saunders A, Tian Y, Varadi F, Yiou P (2002) Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev Geophys 40: 1003. doi: 10. 1029/2000RG000092.
28. Gray ST, Graumlich LJ, Betancourt JL, Pedersen GT (2004) A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation since 1567 A. D. Geophys Res Lett 31: L12205. doi: 10. 1029/2004GL019932.
29. Häkkinen S, Rhines PB (2009) Shifting surface currents in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. J Geophys Res 114: C04005. doi: 10. 1029/2008JC004883.
30. Hu Z-Z, Nitta T (1996) Wavelet analysis of summer rainfall over North China and India and SOI using 1891-1992 data. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 74: 833-844.
31. Hu A, Otto-Bliesner BL, Meehl GA, Han W, Morrill C, Brady EC, Briegleb B (2008) Response of thermohaline circulation to freshwater forcing under present day and LGM conditions. J Clim 21: 2239-2258.
32. Hu Z-Z, Huang B, Kinter III JL, Wu Z, Kumar A (2011) Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part II: interdecadal variations. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-011-1073-6 (published online).
33. Huang NE, et al (1998) The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis. Proc R Soc Lond A 454: 903-993.
34. Huang NE, Wu Z (2008) A review on Hilbert-Huang transform: the method and its applications on geophysical studies. Rev Geophys 46: RG2006. doi: 10. 1029/2007RG000228.
35. Huang B, Hu Z-Z, Kinter III JL, Wu Z, Kumar A (2011a) Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-011-1250-7.
36. Huang B, Xue Y, Kumar A, Behringer DW (2011b) AMOC variations in 1979-2008 simulated by NCEP operational ocean data assimilation system. Clim Dyn (in press).
37. Huck T, Colin de Verdière A, Weaver AJ (1999) Interdecadal variability of the thermohaline circulation in box-ocean models forced by fixed surface fluxes. J Phys Oceanogr 29: 865-892.
38. Huck T, Vallis GK, Colin de Verdière A (2001) On the robustness of the interdecadal modes of the thermohaline circulation. J Clim 14: 940-963.
39. Jochum M, Malanotte-Rizzoli P (2001) Influence of the meridional overturning circulation on tropical-subtropical pathways. J Phys Oceanogr 31: 1313-1323.
40. Johns WE, Baringer MO, Beal LM, Cunningham SA, Kanzow T, Bryden HL, Hirschi JJM, Marotzke J, Meinen CS, Shaw B, Curry R (2011) Continuous, array-based estimates of Atlantic Ocean heat transport at 26. 5°N. J Clim 24: 2429-2449.
41. Johnson H, Marshall DP (2002) A theory for the surface Atlantic response to thermohaline variability. J Phys Oceangr 32: 1121-1132.
42. Jungclaus JH, Haak H, Latif M, Mikolajewicz U (2005) Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation. J Clim 18: 4013-4031.
43. Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83: 1631-1643.
44. Kerr RA (2000) A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries. Science 288: 1984-1985.
45. Klinger B, Cruz C (2009) Decadal response of global circulation to Southern Ocean zonal wind stress perturbation. J Phys Oceanogr 39: 1888-1904.
46. Knight JT, Allan RJ, Folland CK, Vellinga M, Mann ME (2005) A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys Res Lett 32: L20708. doi: 1029/2005GL024233.
47. Kushnir Y (1994) Interdecadal variations in North Atlantic Sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions. J Clim 7: 142-157.
48. Large WG, McWilliams JC, Doney SC (1994) Oceanic vertical mixing: a review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization. Rev Geophys 32: 363-403.
49. Latif M, Collins M, Pohlmann H, Keenlyside N (2006) A review of predictability studies of the Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. J Clim 19: 5971-5987.
50. Lindzen RS, Nigam S (1987) On the role of sea surface temperature gradients in forcing low-level winds and convergence in the tropics. J Atmos Sci 44: 2418-2436.
51. Liu Z (1994) A simple model of the mass exchange between the subtropical and tropical ocean. J Phys Oceanogr 24: 1153-1165.
52. Lumpkin R, Speer K (2003) Large-scale vertical and horizontal circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. J Phys Oceanogr 33: 1902-1920.
53. Lumpkin R, Speer K (2007) Global ocean meridional overturning. J Phys Oceanogr 37: 2550-2562.
54. Mahajan S, Saravanan R, Chang P (2010) Free and forced variability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean: role of the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature feedback. J Clim 23: 5958-5977.
55. Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1988) Two stable equilibria of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 1: 841-866.
56. Marshall J, Johnson H, Goodman J (2001) A study of the interaction of the North Atlantic Oscillation with the ocean circulation. J Clim 14: 1399-1421.
57. McCreary JP, Lu P (1994) Interaction between the subtropical and equatorial ocean circulations: the subtropical cell. J Phys Oceanogr 24: 466-497.
58. Moron V, Vautard R, Ghil M (1998) Trends, interdecadal and interannual oscillations in global sea-surface temperatures. Clim Dyn 14: 545-569.
59. Ou H-S (2011) A minimal model of the Atlantic multidecadal variability: its genesis and predictability. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-011-1007-3 (published online).
60. Pacanowski RC, Griffies SM (1998) MOM 3. 0 manual. NOAA/GFDL http://www. gfdl. noaa. gov/~smg/MOM/web/guide_parent/guide_parent. html.
61. Park Y-G, Hwang JH (2009) Local advective mechanism for interdecadal variability in circulations driven by constant surface heat fluxes in idealized basins. J Oceanogr 65: 549-566.
62. Plaut G, Vautard R (1994) Spells of low-frequency oscillations and weather regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. J Atmos Sci 51: 210-236.
63. Saha S, et al (2006) The NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 19: 3483-3517.
64. Schopf PS, Suarez MJ (1988) Vacillations in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Atmos Sci 45: 549-566.
65. Schott FA, McCreary JP, Johnson GC (2004) Shallow overturning circulations of the tropical-subtropical oceans, in earth climate: the ocean-atmosphere interaction, AGU, pp 261-304.
66. Semenov VA, Latif M, Dommenget D, Keenlyside NS, Strehz A, Martin T, Park W (2010) The impact of North Atlantic-Arctic multidecadal variability on northern hemisphere surface air temperature. J Clim 23: 5668-5677.
67. Sévellec F, Fedorov AV (2011) An interdecadal oscillatory eigenmode of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a realistic ocean GCM. J Clim, submitted.
68. Sime LC, Stevens DP, Heywood KJ, Oliver KIC (2006) A decomposition of the Atlantic meridional overturning. J Phys Oceanogr 36: 2253-2270.
69. Stouffer RJ, et al (2006) Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes. J Clim 19: 1365-1387.
70. Suarez MJ, Schopf PS (1988) A delayed action oscillator for ENSO. J Atmos Sci 45: 3283-3287.
71. Sutton RW, Hodson DLR (2007) Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. J Clim 20: 891-907.
72. Talley LD, Reid JL, Robbins PE (2003) Data-based meridional overturning stream function for the global ocean. J Clim 16: 3213-3226.
73. Te Raa L, Dijkstra HD (2002) Instability of the thermohaline ocean circulation on interdecadal timescales. J Phys Oceanogr 32: 138-160.
74. Timmermann A, Latif M, Voss R, Grötzner A (1998) Northern hemispheric interdecadal variability: a coupled air-sea mode. J Clim 12: 2607-2624.
75. Timmermann A, An S, Krebs U, Goosse H (2005) ENSO suppression due to a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J Clim 18: 3122-3139.
76. Ting M, Kushnir Y, Seager R, Li C (2010) Atlantic multidecadal variability and its climate impacts in CMIP3 models and observations. In: 2010 US AMOC annual meeting, Miami, FL. http://www. atlanticmoc. org/AMOC2010agenda. php.
77. Vellinga M, Wood R (2002) Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Clim Change 54: 251-267.
78. Vellinga M, Wu P (2004) Low-latitude freshwater influences on centennial variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J Clim 17: 4498-4511.
79. Weaver AJ, Sarachik ES (1991) Evidence for decadal variability in an ocean general circulation model: an advective mechanism. Atmos-Ocean 29: 197-231.
80. Weaver AJ, Valcke S (1998) On the variability of the thermohaline circulation in the GFDL coupled model. J Clim 11: 759-767.
81. Wen C, Chang P, Saravanan R (2010) Effect of the Atlantic overturning circulation changes on the tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature variability: a 2-1/2 layer reduced gravity ocean model study. J Clim 23: 312-332.
82. Weng W, Neelin JD (1998) On the role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in midlatitude interdecadal variability. Geophys Res Lett 25: 167-170.
83. Wu Z, Huang NE (2009) Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: a noise-assisted data analysis method. Adv Adapt Data Anal 1: 1-41.
84. Wu Z, Huang NE, Wallace JM, Smoliak BV, Chen X (2011) On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature. Clim Dyn (revised).
85. Xie S-P (1999) A dynamic ocean-atmosphere model of the tropical Atlantic decadal variability. J Clim 12: 64-70.
86. Zhang R (2007) Anticorrelated multidecadal variations between surface and subsurface tropical North Atlantic. Geophy Res Lett 34: L12713. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL030225.
87. Zhang R, Delworth TL (2005) Simulated tropical response to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J Clim 18: 1853-1860.
88. Zhu X, Jungclaus J (2008) Interdecadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation as an ocean internal mode. Clim Dyn 31: 731-741. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-008-0383-9.