메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 44, Issue 1-2, 2015, Pages 559-583

Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions

Author keywords

Arctic sea ice; Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; Climate drift; Decadal prediction; North Atlantic salinity

Indexed keywords


EID: 84925500940     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2395-y     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (33)

References (62)
  • 1
    • 84925527195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Volume 2: Salinity. S. Levitus, Ed. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 69, U.S. Government Printing Office
    • Antonov JI, Seidov D, Boyer TP, Locarnini RA, Mishonov AV, Garcia HE, Baranova OK, Zweng MM, Johnson DR (2010) World Ocean Atlas 2009, Volume 2: Salinity. S. Levitus, Ed. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 69, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington pp 184
    • (2009) Washington pp 184
  • 3
    • 84880703032 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4
    • Balmaseda MA, Mogensen K, Weaver AT (2013) Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4. Q J R Meteorol Soc 139:1132–1161
    • (2013) Q J R Meteorol Soc , vol.139 , pp. 1132-1161
    • Balmaseda, M.A.1    Mogensen, K.2    Weaver, A.T.3
  • 4
    • 84920843313 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 decadal predictions. Clim Dyn
    • Bombardi RJ et al (2014) Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 decadal predictions. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9
    • (2014) doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9
    • Bombardi, R.J.1
  • 7
    • 84940460881 scopus 로고
    • Volume 1: Algorithms and procedures. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 6. US Department of Commerce, NOAA
    • da Silva AM, Young CC, Levitus S (1994) Atlas of surface marine data 1994, Volume 1: Algorithms and procedures. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 6. US Department of Commerce, NOAA, NESDIS, pp 73
    • (1994) NESDIS , pp. 73
    • da Silva, A.M.1    Young, C.C.2
  • 8
    • 78249266643 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate impacts of parameterized Nordic Sea overflows
    • Danabasoglu G, Large WG, Briegleb BP (2010) Climate impacts of parameterized Nordic Sea overflows. J Geophys Res 115:C11005
    • (2010) J Geophys Res , vol.115 , pp. C11005
    • Danabasoglu, G.1    Large, W.G.2    Briegleb, B.P.3
  • 10
    • 84894033258 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • North Atlantic simulations in coordinated Ocean-ice reference experiments phase II (CORE-II) Part I: mean states
    • Danabasoglu G et al (2014) North Atlantic simulations in coordinated Ocean-ice reference experiments phase II (CORE-II) Part I: mean states. Ocean Model 73:76–107
    • (2014) Ocean Model , vol.73 , pp. 76-107
    • Danabasoglu, G.1
  • 11
    • 0027706605 scopus 로고
    • Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model
    • Delworth TL, Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1993) Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. J Clim 6:1993–2011
    • (1993) J Clim , vol.6 , pp. 1993-2011
    • Delworth, T.L.1    Manabe, S.2    Stouffer, R.J.3
  • 13
    • 1442314273 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implementation of Noah land-surface model advances in the NCEP operational mesoscale Eta model
    • Ek M, Mitchell KE, Lin Y, Rogers E, Grunmann P, Koren V, Gayno G, Tarpley JD (2003) Implementation of Noah land-surface model advances in the NCEP operational mesoscale Eta model. J Geophys Res 108:8851. doi:10.1029/2002JD003296
    • (2003) J Geophys Res , vol.108 , pp. 8851
    • Ek, M.1    Mitchell, K.E.2    Lin, Y.3    Rogers, E.4    Grunmann, P.5    Koren, V.6    Gayno, G.7    Tarpley, J.D.8
  • 14
    • 0034707034 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved estimates of global ocean circulation, heat transport and mixing from hydrographic data
    • Ganachaud A, Wunsch C (2000) Improved estimates of global ocean circulation, heat transport and mixing from hydrographic data. Nature 408:453–457
    • (2000) Nature , vol.408 , pp. 453-457
    • Ganachaud, A.1    Wunsch, C.2
  • 15
    • 0141453236 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Large-scale ocean heat and freshwater transports during the world Ocean circulation experiment
    • Ganachaud A, Wunsch C (2003) Large-scale ocean heat and freshwater transports during the world Ocean circulation experiment. J Clim 16:696–705
    • (2003) J Clim , vol.16 , pp. 696-705
    • Ganachaud, A.1    Wunsch, C.2
  • 16
    • 84867206911 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Understanding Atlantic multi-decadal variability prediction skill
    • García-Serrano J, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Coelho CAS (2012) Understanding Atlantic multi-decadal variability prediction skill. Geophys Res Lett 39:L18708. doi:10.1029/2012GL053283
    • (2012) Geophys Res Lett , vol.39 , pp. L18708
    • García-Serrano, J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Coelho, C.A.S.3
  • 17
    • 33645815473 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part II: the baseline ocean simulation
    • Gnanadesikan A et al (2006) GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part II: the baseline ocean simulation. J Clim 19:675–696
    • (2006) J Clim , vol.19 , pp. 675-696
    • Gnanadesikan, A.1
  • 20
    • 84879740059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade
    • Guemas V, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Andreu-Burillo I, Asif M (2013) Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade. Nat Clim Change 3:649–653. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1863
    • (2013) Nat Clim Change , vol.3 , pp. 649-653
    • Guemas, V.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Andreu-Burillo, I.3    Asif, M.4
  • 22
    • 84878111901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction skill of monthly SST in the North Atlantic Ocean in NCEP climate forecast system version 2
    • Hu Z-Z, Kumar A, Huang B, Wang W, Zhu J, Wen C (2013) Prediction skill of monthly SST in the North Atlantic Ocean in NCEP climate forecast system version 2. Clim Dyn 40:2745–2759. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1431-z
    • (2013) Clim Dyn , vol.40 , pp. 2745-2759
    • Hu, Z.-Z.1    Kumar, A.2    Huang, B.3    Wang, W.4    Zhu, J.5    Wen, C.6
  • 23
    • 84856322783 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • AMOC variations in 1979–2008 simulated by NCEP operational ocean data assimilation system
    • Huang B, Xue Y, Kumar A, Behringer DW (2012a) AMOC variations in 1979–2008 simulated by NCEP operational ocean data assimilation system. Clim Dyn 38:513–525. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1035-z
    • (2012) Clim Dyn , vol.38 , pp. 513-525
    • Huang, B.-Y.1    Xue, Y.2    Kumar, A.3    Behringer, D.W.4
  • 24
    • 84861358499 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influences of tropical-extratropical interaction on the multidecadal AMOC variability in the NCEP climate forecast system
    • Huang B, Hu Z-Z, Schneider EK, Wu Z, Xue Y, Klinger B (2012b) Influences of tropical-extratropical interaction on the multidecadal AMOC variability in the NCEP climate forecast system. Clim Dyn 39:531–555
    • (2012) Clim Dyn , vol.39 , pp. 531-555
    • Huang, B.1    Hu, Z.-Z.2    Schneider, E.K.3    Wu, Z.4    Xue, Y.5    Klinger, B.6
  • 25
    • 84925527193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multidecadal oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP5 models. U.S. AMOC/U.K. RAPID International Science Meeting
    • Baltimore: Maryland
    • Huang B, Zhang S, Zhu J, Z.-Z. Hu Z-Z (2013) Multidecadal oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP5 models. U.S. AMOC/U.K. RAPID International Science Meeting, 16–19 July 2013, Baltimore, Maryland. http://www.usclivar.org/sites/default/files/meetings/Huang_AMOC2013_poster.pdf
    • (2013) 16–19 July 2013
    • Huang, B.1    Zhang, S.2    Zhu, J.3    Hu, Z.-Z.4
  • 26
    • 0001439727 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An elastic–viscous–plastic model for sea ice dynamics
    • Hunke EC, Dukowicz JK (1997) An elastic–viscous–plastic model for sea ice dynamics. J Phys Oceanogr 27:1849–1867
    • (1997) J Phys Oceanogr , vol.27 , pp. 1849-1867
    • Hunke, E.C.1    Dukowicz, J.K.2
  • 27
    • 0028333361 scopus 로고
    • A multiseason climate forecast system at the national meteorological center
    • Ji M, Kumar A, Leetmaa A (1994) A multiseason climate forecast system at the national meteorological center. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 75:569–578
    • (1994) Bull Amer Meteor Soc , vol.75 , pp. 569-578
    • Ji, M.1    Kumar, A.2    Leetmaa, A.3
  • 30
    • 84869506823 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF system 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the northern hemisphere winter
    • Kim H-M, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2012) Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF system 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the northern hemisphere winter. Clim Dyn 39:2957–2973. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6
    • (2012) Clim Dyn , vol.39 , pp. 2957-2973
    • Kim, H.-M.1    Webster, P.J.2    Curry, J.A.3
  • 31
    • 28944441534 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate
    • Knight JT, Allan RJ, Folland CK, Vellinga M, Mann ME (2005) A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys Res Lett 32:L20708. doi:10.29/2005GL024233
    • (2005) Geophys Res Lett , vol.32 , pp. L20708
    • Knight, J.T.1    Allan, R.J.2    Folland, C.K.3    Vellinga, M.4    Mann, M.E.5
  • 32
    • 33846134354 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review of predictability studies of the Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales
    • Latif M, Collins M, Pohlmann H, Keenlyside N (2006) A review of predictability studies of the Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. J Clim 19:5971–5987
    • (2006) J Clim , vol.19 , pp. 5971-5987
    • Latif, M.1    Collins, M.2    Pohlmann, H.3    Keenlyside, N.4
  • 33
    • 84925527192 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Volume 1: Temperature. S. Levitus, Ed. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 68, U.S. Government Print Office
    • Locarnini RA, Mishonov AV, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Garcia HE, Baranova OK, Zweng MM, Johnson DR (2010) World Ocean Atlas 2009, Volume 1: Temperature. S. Levitus, Ed. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 68, U.S. Government Print Office, Washington D.C pp 184
    • (2009) Washington D.C pp 184
  • 34
    • 14944378516 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the decomposition of tropical Atlantic drifter observations
    • Lumpkin R, Garraffo Z (2005) Evaluating the decomposition of tropical Atlantic drifter observations. J Atmos Oceanic Tech 22:1403–1415
    • (2005) J Atmos Oceanic Tech , vol.22 , pp. 1403-1415
    • Lumpkin, R.1    Garraffo, Z.2
  • 35
    • 35048855210 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global ocean meridional overturning
    • Lumpkin R, Speer K (2007) Global ocean meridional overturning. J Phys Oceanogr 37:2550–2562
    • (2007) J Phys Oceanogr , vol.37 , pp. 2550-2562
    • Lumpkin, R.1    Speer, K.2
  • 36
    • 64049090226 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NEMO reference manual, ocean dynamics component: NEMO-OPA. Preliminary version
    • Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris:
    • Madec G (2008) NEMO reference manual, ocean dynamics component: NEMO-OPA. Preliminary version. Note du Pôle de modélisation 27. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace: Paris
    • (2008) Note du Pôle de modélisation 27
    • Madec, G.1
  • 37
    • 0033006763 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Open-ocean convection: observations, theory, and models
    • Marshall J, Schott F (1999) Open-ocean convection: observations, theory, and models. Rev Geophys 37:1–64
    • (1999) Rev Geophys , vol.37 , pp. 1-64
    • Marshall, J.1    Schott, F.2
  • 38
    • 84857867380 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Closure of the meridional overturning circulation through Southern Ocean upwelling
    • Marshall J, Speer K (2012) Closure of the meridional overturning circulation through Southern Ocean upwelling. Nat Geosci 5:171–180. doi:10.1038/ngeo1391
    • (2012) Nat Geosci , vol.5 , pp. 171-180
    • Marshall, J.1    Speer, K.2
  • 39
    • 84870049578 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model
    • Matei D, Pohlmann H, Jungclaus J, Müller W, Haak H, Marotzke J (2012) Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. J Clim 25:8502–8523
    • (2012) J Clim , vol.25 , pp. 8502-8523
    • Matei, D.1    Pohlmann, H.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Müller, W.4    Haak, H.5    Marotzke, J.6
  • 43
    • 20444449430 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NCEP operational MRF/AVN global analysis/forecast system
    • Moorthi S, Pan H-L, Caplan P (2001) Changes to the 2001 NCEP operational MRF/AVN global analysis/forecast system. NWS Technical Procedures Bulletin 484: 14 pp. Available at www.nws.noaa.gov/om/tpb/484.htm
    • (2001) NWS Technical Procedures Bulletin , vol.484 , pp. 14
    • Moorthi, S.1    Pan, H.-L.2
  • 44
    • 44449086846 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Toward seamless prediction: calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts
    • Palmer TN, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Weisheimer A, Rodwell MJ (2008) Toward seamless prediction: calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 89:459–470
    • (2008) Bull Amer Meteor Soc , vol.89 , pp. 459-470
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Weisheimer, A.3    Rodwell, M.J.4
  • 45
    • 0037110356 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal evolution of the albedo of multiyear Arctic sea ice
    • Perovich D, Grenfell TC, Light B, Hobbs PV (2002) Seasonal evolution of the albedo of multiyear Arctic sea ice. J Geophys Res 107:8044. doi:10.1029/2000JC000438
    • (2002) J Geophys Res , vol.107 , pp. 8044
    • Perovich, D.1    Grenfell, T.C.2    Light, B.3    Hobbs, P.V.4
  • 48
    • 33645633207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP climate forecast system
    • Saha S et al (2006) The NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 19:3483–3517
    • (2006) J Clim , vol.19 , pp. 3483-3517
    • Saha, S.1
  • 49
    • 77956572998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis
    • Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Amer Met Soc 91:1015–1057
    • (2010) Bull Amer Met Soc , vol.91 , pp. 1015-1057
    • Saha, S.1
  • 50
    • 84896093136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP coupled forecast system, version 2
    • Saha S et al (2014) The NCEP coupled forecast system, version 2. J Clim 27:2185–2208. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1
    • (2014) J Clim , vol.27 , pp. 2185-2208
    • Saha, S.1
  • 51
    • 84883154694 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seamless prediction of weather and climate: A new paradigm for modeling and prediction research. NOAA climate test bed joint seminar series, Camp Spring, MD. 10 Feb 2009
    • Shukla J (2009) Seamless prediction of weather and climate: A new paradigm for modeling and prediction research. NOAA climate test bed joint seminar series, Camp Spring, MD. 10 Feb 2009. Science and Technology Infusion Climate Bulletin, 8 pp. Available at: www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY09CTBSeminars/shukla_021009.pdf
    • (2009) Science and Technology Infusion Climate Bulletin , pp. 8
    • Shukla, J.1
  • 52
    • 0032568443 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global seasonal rainfall forecasts with a coupled ocean atmosphere model
    • Stockdale TN, Anderson DLT, Alves JO, Balmaseda MA (1998) Global seasonal rainfall forecasts with a coupled ocean atmosphere model. Nature 392:370–373
    • (1998) Nature , vol.392 , pp. 370-373
    • Stockdale, T.N.1    Anderson, D.L.T.2    Alves, J.O.3    Balmaseda, M.A.4
  • 54
    • 0344553305 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Data-based meridional overturning stream function for the global ocean
    • Talley LD, Reid JL, Robbins PE (2003) Data-based meridional overturning stream function for the global ocean. J Clim 16:3213–3226
    • (2003) J Clim , vol.16 , pp. 3213-3226
    • Talley, L.D.1    Reid, J.L.2    Robbins, P.E.3
  • 55
    • 84860684669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design
    • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
    • (2012) Bull Am Meteorol Soc , vol.93 , pp. 485-498
    • Taylor, K.E.1    Stouffer, R.J.2    Meehl, G.A.3
  • 56
    • 84859008719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Skill in the trend and internal variability in a multi-model decadal prediction ensemble
    • van Oldenborgh GJ, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Wouters B, Hazeleger W (2012) Skill in the trend and internal variability in a multi-model decadal prediction ensemble. Clim Dyn 38:1263–1280. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1313-4
    • (2012) Clim Dyn , vol.38 , pp. 1263-1280
    • van Oldenborgh, G.J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Wouters, B.3    Hazeleger, W.4
  • 57
    • 84877971084 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal prediction of Arctic Sea ice extent from a coupled dynamical forecast system
    • Wang W, Chen M, Kumar A (2013) Seasonal prediction of Arctic Sea ice extent from a coupled dynamical forecast system. Mon Wea Rev 141:1375–1394
    • (2013) Mon Wea Rev , vol.141 , pp. 1375-1394
    • Wang, W.1    Chen, M.2    Kumar, A.3
  • 58
    • 0034038501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A reformulated three-layer sea ice model
    • Winton M (2000) A reformulated three-layer sea ice model. J Atmos Oceanic Technol 17:525–531
    • (2000) J Atmos Oceanic Technol , vol.17 , pp. 525-531
    • Winton, M.1
  • 59
    • 0031403103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs
    • Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 78:2539–2558
    • (1997) Bull Amer Meteor Soc , vol.78 , pp. 2539-2558
    • Xie, P.1    Arkin, P.A.2
  • 60
    • 0037983849 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling global sea ice with a thickness and enthalpy distribution model in generalized curvilinear coordinates
    • Zhang JL, Rothrock DA (2003) Modeling global sea ice with a thickness and enthalpy distribution model in generalized curvilinear coordinates. Mon Wea Rev 131:845–861
    • (2003) Mon Wea Rev , vol.131 , pp. 845-861
    • Zhang, J.L.1    Rothrock, D.A.2
  • 61
    • 84864387834 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An ensemble estimation of the variability of upper-ocean heat content over the tropical Atlantic Ocean with multi-ocean reanalysis products
    • Zhu J, Huang B, Balmaseda MA (2012a) An ensemble estimation of the variability of upper-ocean heat content over the tropical Atlantic Ocean with multi-ocean reanalysis products. Clim Dyn 39:1001–1020. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1189-8
    • (2012) Clim Dyn , vol.39 , pp. 1001-1020
    • Zhu, J.1    Huang, B.2    Balmaseda, M.A.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.