메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 44, Issue 9-10, 2015, Pages 2787-2806

An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 84939891498     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2164-y     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (65)

References (46)
  • 2
    • 43549100458 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-model decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature
    • Boer GJ, Lambert SJ (2008) Multi-model decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature. Geophys Res Lett 35:L05706
    • (2008) Geophys Res Lett , vol.35 , pp. L05706
    • Boer, G.J.1    Lambert, S.J.2
  • 3
    • 78650576963 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Two limits of initial-value decadal predictability in a CGCM
    • Branstator G, Teng H (2010) Two limits of initial-value decadal predictability in a CGCM. J Clim 23:6292–6310
    • (2010) J Clim , vol.23 , pp. 6292-6310
    • Branstator, G.1    Teng, H.2
  • 4
    • 84862884606 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential impacts of initialization on CMIP5 decadal predictions. Geophys Res Lett
    • Branstator G, Teng H (2012) Potential impacts of initialization on CMIP5 decadal predictions. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2012GL051974
    • (2012) doi:10.1029/2012GL051974
    • Branstator, G.1    Teng, H.2
  • 5
  • 6
    • 0032738634 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field
    • Bretherton CS, Widmann M, Dymnikov VP, Wallace JM, Blad I (1999) The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J Clim 12:1990–2009
    • (1999) J Clim , vol.12 , pp. 1990-2009
    • Bretherton, C.S.1    Widmann, M.2    Dymnikov, V.P.3    Wallace, J.M.4    Blad, I.5
  • 7
    • 33750606092 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850
    • Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res 111:D12106. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548
    • (2006) J Geophys Res , vol.111 , pp. D12106
    • Brohan, P.1    Kennedy, J.J.2    Harris, I.3    Tett, S.F.B.4    Jones, P.D.5
  • 11
    • 84867101035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast
    • García-Serrano J, Doblas-Reyes FJ (2012) On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast. Clim Dyn 39. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1413-1
    • (2012) Clim Dyn , pp. 39
    • García-Serrano, J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
  • 12
    • 84867206911 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Understanding Atlantic multi-decadal variability prediction skill
    • García-Serrano J, Doblas-Reyes F-J, Coelho CAS (2012) Understanding Atlantic multi-decadal variability prediction skill. Geophys Res Lett 39:L18708. doi:10.1029/2012GL053283
    • (2012) Geophys Res Lett , vol.39 , pp. L18708
    • García-Serrano, J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.-J.2    Coelho, C.A.S.3
  • 13
    • 84871928605 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments
    • Goddard L et al (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Clim Dyn 40:245–272. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2
    • (2013) Clim Dyn , vol.40 , pp. 245-272
    • Goddard, L.1
  • 14
    • 0031399434 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability
    • Griffies SM, Bryan K (1997) A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability. Clim Dyn 13:459–487
    • (1997) Clim Dyn , vol.13 , pp. 459-487
    • Griffies, S.M.1    Bryan, K.2
  • 16
    • 18544371178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting I. Basic concept
    • Hagedorn R, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN (2005) The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting I. Basic concept. Tellus 57:219–233
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 , pp. 219-233
    • Hagedorn, R.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 17
    • 70450173156 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions
    • Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:1095–1107
    • (2009) Bull Am Meteorol Soc , vol.90 , pp. 1095-1107
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 19
    • 84858210268 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal climate predictions: opportunities and challenges. OceanObs’09
    • Hurrell JW et al (2009) Decadal climate predictions: opportunities and challenges. OceanObs’09, Community White Paper, pp 1–21
    • (2009) Community White Paper , pp. 1-21
    • Hurrell, J.W.1
  • 20
    • 84860680392 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Data and bias correction for decadal climate predictions. International CLIVAR Project Office
    • International CLIVAR Project Office (ICPO) (2011) Data and bias correction for decadal climate predictions. International CLIVAR Project Office, CLIVAR publication series no 150, p 6
    • (2011) CLIVAR publication series , vol.150 , pp. 6
  • 21
    • 43049138035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector
    • Keenlyside NS, Latif M, Jungclaus J, Kornblueh L, Röckner E (2008) Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453:84–88
    • (2008) Nature , vol.453 , pp. 84-88
    • Keenlyside, N.S.1    Latif, M.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Kornblueh, L.4    Röckner, E.5
  • 22
    • 84861372930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
    • Kim HM, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2012) Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Geophys Res Lett 39:L10701. doi:10.1029/2012GL051644
    • (2012) Geophys Res Lett , vol.39 , pp. L10701
    • Kim, H.M.1    Webster, P.J.2    Curry, J.A.3
  • 23
    • 28944441534 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycle in observed climate
    • Knight JR, Allan R, Folland CK, Vellinga M, Mann ME (2005) A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycle in observed climate. Geophys Res Lett 32:L20708
    • (2005) Geophys Res Lett , vol.32 , pp. L20708
    • Knight, J.R.1    Allan, R.2    Folland, C.K.3    Vellinga, M.4    Mann, M.E.5
  • 24
    • 33845638685 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
    • Knight JR, Folland CK, Scaife AA (2006) Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 33:L17706
    • (2006) Geophys Res Lett , vol.33 , pp. L17706
    • Knight, J.R.1    Folland, C.K.2    Scaife, A.A.3
  • 25
    • 0000423451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of climate models
    • Lambert SJ, Boer GJ (2001) CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of climate models. Clim Dyn 17:83–106. doi:10.1007/PL00013736
    • (2001) Clim Dyn , vol.17 , pp. 83-106
    • Lambert, S.J.1    Boer, G.J.2
  • 27
    • 84884703114 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the dependence of ENSO simulation on the coupled model mean state
    • Magnusson L, Alonso-Balmaseda M, Molteni F (2012) On the dependence of ENSO simulation on the coupled model mean state. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1574-y
    • (2012) Clim Dyn
    • Magnusson, L.1    Alonso-Balmaseda, M.2    Molteni, F.3
  • 28
    • 84870049578 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model
    • Matei D, Pohlmann H, Jungclaus J, Müller W, Haak H, Marotzke J (2012a) Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00633.1
    • (2012) J Clim
    • Matei, D.1    Pohlmann, H.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Müller, W.4    Haak, H.5    Marotzke, J.6
  • 29
    • 84855480406 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5N
    • Matei D, Baehr J, Jungclaus J, Haak H, Müller WA, Marotzke J (2012b) Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5N. Science 335:76–79
    • (2012) Science , vol.335 , pp. 76-79
    • Matei, D.1    Baehr, J.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Haak, H.4    Müller, W.A.5    Marotzke, J.6
  • 31
    • 84893858451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bull Am Meteorol Soc
    • Meehl GA et al (2013) Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1
    • (2013) doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1
    • Meehl, G.A.1
  • 32
    • 76649101457 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction
    • Mochizuki T et al (2010) Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction. PNAS 5:1833–1837. doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107
    • (2010) PNAS , vol.5 , pp. 1833-1837
    • Mochizuki, T.1
  • 33
    • 3543083343 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction
    • Palmer TN et al (2004) Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:853–872
    • (2004) Bull Am Meteorol Soc , vol.85 , pp. 853-872
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 34
    • 68749116591 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: effects on the North Atlantic
    • Pohlmann H, Jungclaus JH, Köhl A, Stammer D, Marotzke J (2009) Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: effects on the North Atlantic. J Clim 22:3926–3938
    • (2009) J Clim , vol.22 , pp. 3926-3938
    • Pohlmann, H.1    Jungclaus, J.H.2    Köhl, A.3    Stammer, D.4    Marotzke, J.5
  • 35
    • 0742305193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
    • Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670
    • (2003) J Geophys Res , vol.108 , Issue.D14 , pp. 4407
    • Rayner, N.A.1    Parker, D.E.2    Horton, E.B.3    Folland, C.K.4    Alexander, L.V.5    Rowell, D.P.6    Kent, E.C.7    Kaplan, A.8
  • 37
    • 34547903564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model
    • Smith DM, Cusack S, Colman AW, Folland CK, Harris GR, Murphy JM (2007) Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317:796–799
    • (2007) Science , vol.317 , pp. 796-799
    • Smith, D.M.1    Cusack, S.2    Colman, A.W.3    Folland, C.K.4    Harris, G.R.5    Murphy, J.M.6
  • 38
    • 84888065733 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Clim Dyn
    • Smith DM et al (2012) Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0
    • (2012) doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0
    • Smith, D.M.1
  • 39
    • 84888051177 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction. Clim Dyn
    • Smith DM, Eade R, Pohlmann H (2013) A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2
    • (2013) doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2
    • Smith, D.M.1    Eade, R.2    Pohlmann, H.3
  • 40
    • 84860684669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design
    • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
    • (2012) Bull Am Meteorol Soc , vol.93 , pp. 485-498
    • Taylor, K.E.1    Stouffer, R.J.2    Meehl, G.A.3
  • 41
    • 34547177691 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
    • Tebaldi C, Knutti R (2007) The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philos Trans R Soc 365:2053–2075
    • (2007) Philos Trans R Soc , vol.365 , pp. 2053-2075
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Knutti, R.2
  • 42
    • 64049109357 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic
    • Ting M, Kushnir Y, Seager R, Li C (2009) Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J Clim 22:1469–1481
    • (2009) J Clim , vol.22 , pp. 1469-1481
    • Ting, M.1    Kushnir, Y.2    Seager, R.3    Li, C.4
  • 43
    • 33750626862 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005
    • Trenberth KE, Shea DJ (2006) Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophys Res Lett 33:L12704
    • (2006) Geophys Res Lett , vol.33 , pp. L12704
    • Trenberth, K.E.1    Shea, D.J.2
  • 46
    • 33845622400 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes
    • Zhang R, Delworth TL (2006) Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys Res Lett 33:L17712. doi:10.1029/2006GL026267
    • (2006) Geophys Res Lett , vol.33 , pp. L17712
    • Zhang, R.1    Delworth, T.L.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.