An empirical evaluation of explanations for state repression

American Political Science Review

Volumn 108, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 661-687

  Hill, Daniel W ^a   Jones, Zachary M ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA   (United States)

^b PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84907332185     PISSN: 00030554     EISSN: 15375943     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0003055414000306     Document Type: Article

References (151)

1. Abouharb, M. Rodwan, and David L. Cingranelli. 2006. " The Human Rights Effects of World Bank Structural Adjustment, 1981-2000. " International Studies Quarterly 50 (2): 233-62.
2. Abouharb, M. Rodwan, and David Cingranelli. 2007. Human Rights and Structural Adjustment. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
3. Acemoglu, Daron, and James A. Robinson. 2005. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
4. Apodaca, Clair. 2001. " Global Economic Patterns and Personal Integrity Rights after the ColdWar. " International Studies Quarterly 45 (4): 587-602.
5. Bagozzi, Benjamin. 2013. " Forecasting Civil Conflict with Zero-Inflated Count Models. " Working Paper, Pennsylvania State University.
6. Bagozzi, Benjamin, Daniel W. Hill Jr., Will H. Moore, and Bumba Mukherjee. Forthcoming. " Modeling Two Types of Peace: The Zero-Inflated Ordered Probit Model in Conflict Studies. " Journal of Conflict Resolution.
7. Bank, World. 2012. " World Bank Development Indicators.
8. Beck, Thorsten, George Clarke, Alberto Groff, Philip Keefer, and Patrick Walsh. 2001. " New Tools in Comparative Political Economy: The Database of Political Institutions. " The World Bank Economic Review 15 (1): 165-76.
9. Beck, Nathaniel, Gary King, and Langche Zeng. 2000. " Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture. " American Political Science Review 94 (1): 21-35.
10. Bell, Sam R., K. Chad Clay, Michael E. Flynn, and Amanda Murdie. 2013. " Now You See It, Now You Don't? Transparency and Change inGovernmentRespect for Physical IntegrityRights. " Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association.
11. Berk, Richard A. 2008. Statistical Learning from a Regression Perspective. New York: Springer.
12. Biau, Ǵerard, Luc Devroye, and Ǵabor Lugosi. 2008. " Consistency of Random Forests and other Averaging Classifiers. " The Journal of Machine Learning Research 9: 2015-33.
13. Boix, Carles. 2003. Democracy and Redistribution. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
14. Boykoff, Jules. 2007. " Limiting Dissent: The Mechanisms of State Repression in the USA. " Social Movement Studies 6 (3): 281-310.
15. Brandt, Patrick T., John R. Freeman, and Philip A. Schrodt. 2011. " Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter-And Intra-state Political Conflict. " Conflict Management and Peace Science 28 (1): 41-64.
16. Breiman, Leo. 2001. " Random forests. " Machine Learning 45 (1): 5-32.
17. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, and Alastair Smith. 2009. " Political Survival and Endogenous Institutional Change. " Comparative Political Studies 42 (2): 167-97.
18. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, GeorgeW. Downs, Alastair Smith, and Feryal Marie Cherif. 2005. " Thinking Inside the Box: A Closer Look at Democracy and Human Rights. " International Studies Quarterly 49: 439-57.
19. Carey, John M. 2000. " Parchment, Equilibria, and Institutions. " Comparative Political Studies 33 (6/7): 735-61.
20. Carrubba, Clifford J. 2009. " A Model of the Endogenous Development of Judicial Institutions in Federal and International Systems. " Journal of Politics 71 (1): 1-15.
21. Cingranelli, David L., and David L. Richards. 1999. " Measuring the Level, Pattern and Sequence of Government Respect for Physical Integrity Rights. " International Studies Quarterly 43 (2): 407-18.
22. Cingranelli, David, andMikhail Filippov. 2010. " Electoral Rules and Incentives to Protect Human Rights. " Journal of Politics 72 (1): 243-57.
23. Cingranelli, David L., and David L. Richards. 2010a. " The Cingranelli and Richards (CIRI) Human Rights Data Project. " Human Rights Quarterly 32 (2): 401-24.
24. Cingranelli, David L., and David L. Richards. 2010b. " The Cingranelli-Richards (CIRI) HumanRightsDataset. " http://www. humanrightsdata.org
25. Clark, William Roberts, Matt Golder, and Sona N. Golder. 2013. " Power and Politics: Insights from an Exit, Voice, and Loyalty Game.'Working paper, University of Michigan and Pennsylvania State University.
26. Conrad, Courtenay R. 2012. " Divergent Incentives for Dictators: Domestic Institutions and (International Promises Not to) Torture.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (1): 34-67.
27. Conrad, Courtenay R., Jillienne Haglund, and Will H. Moore. 2013. " Disaggregating Torture Allegations: Introducing the Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) Country-Year Data. " International Studies Perspectives 14 (2): 199-220.
28. Conrad, Courtenay R. and Emily Hencken Ritter. 2013. " Treaties, Tenure, and Torture: The Conflicting Domestic Effects of International Law. " Journal of Politics 75 (2).
29. Conrad, Courtenay Ryals andWill H. Moore. 2010. " What Stops the Torture?' American Journal of Political Science 54 (2): 459-76.
30. Cross, Frank B. 1999. " The Relevance of Law in Human Rights Protection. " International Review of Law and Economics 19 (1): 87-98.
31. Dahl, Robert. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
32. Davenport, Christian. 1995. " Multi-Dimensional Threat Perception and State Repression: AnInquiry IntoWhy StatesApplyNegative Sanctions. " American Journal of Political Science 39 (3): 683-713.
33. Davenport, Christian. 1996. " 'Constitutional Promises' and Repressive Reality: A Cross-National Time-Series Investigation of Why Political and Civil Liberties are Suppressed. " Journal of Politics 58 (3): 627-54.
34. Davenport, Christian. 1999. " Human Rights and the Democratic Proposition. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (1): 92-116.
35. Davenport, Christian. 2005. " Understanding Covert Repressive Action The Case of the US Government Against the Republic of New Africa. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (1): 120-40.
36. Davenport, Christian. 2007a. " StateRepression and PoliticalOrder. " Annual Review of Political Science 10: 1-27.
37. Davenport, Christian. 2007b. State Repression and the Domestic Democratic Peace. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
38. Davenport, Christian, and DavidArmstrong. 2004. " Democracy and the Violation of Human Rights: A Statistical Analysis from 1976-1996. " American Journal of Political Science 48 (3): 538-54.
39. Davenport, Christian, Will H. Moore, and David Armstrong. 2007. " The Puzzle of Abu Ghraib: Are Democratic Institutions a Palliative or Panacea?' Available at SSRN: Http://ssrn.com/abstract=1022367.
40. Della-Porta, Donatella. 1996. Social Movements and the State: Thoughts on the Policing of Protest. In Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements: Political Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures, and Cultural Framings, eds. Doug McAdam, John D.
41. McCarthy and Mayer N. Zald. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
42. Demeritt, Jaqueline H., Courtenay Ryals Conrad, Christopher J. Fariss, and Keith E. Schnakenberg. 2014. " Human Rights Advocacy and State Repression Substitutability. " Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association.
43. DeMeritt, Jacqueline H. R. and Joseph K. Young. 2013. " A Political Economy ofHuman Rights:Oil, NaturalGas, and State Incentives to Repress. " Conflict Management and Peace Science 30 (2): 99-120.
44. Earl, Jennifer. 2003. " Tanks, Tear Gas, and Taxes: Toward a Theory of Movement Repression. " Sociological Theory 21 (1): 44-68.
45. Eck, Kristine, and Lisa Hultman. 2007. " One-SidedViolence Against Civilians inWar Insights fromNew FatalityData. " Journal ofPeace Research 44 (2): 233-46.
46. Efron, Bradley. 1983. " Estimating the Error rate of a Prediction Rule: Improvement onCross-Validation. " Journal of the American Statistical Association 78 (382): 316-31.
47. Elkins, Zachary, Tom Ginsburg, and James Melton. 2009. The Endurance of National Constitutions. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
48. Fariss, Christopher J. 2014. " Respect for Human Rights has Improved Over Time:Modeling the Changing Standard of Accountability. " American Political Science Review 108 (2): 297-318.
49. Fariss, Christopher J. and Keith E. Schnakenberg. Forthcoming. " Measuring Mutual Dependence between Repressive Actions.''Journal of Conflict Resolution.
50. Fein, Helen. 1995. " MoreMurder in the Middle: Life- IntegrityViolations andDemocracy in theWorld, 1987.'HumanRightsQuarterly 17: 170.
51. Fielding, David, and Anja Shortland. 2010. " An Eye for an Eye, a Tooth for a Tooth: Political Violence and Counter-Insurgency in Egypt. " Journal of Peace Research 47 (4): 433-47.
52. Francisco, Ronald A. 1995. " The Relationship between Coercion and Protest An Empirical Evaluation in Three Coercive States. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (2): 263-82.
53. Francisco, Ronald A. 1996. " Coercion and Protest: An Empirical Test in Two Democratic States. " American Journal of Political Science 40 (4): 1179-204.
54. Franklin, James C. 2008. " Shame on You: The Impact of Human Rights Criticism on Political Repression in Latin America. " International Studies Quarterly 52 (1): 187-211.
55. Freedman, David A. 1983. " A Note on Screening Regression Equations. " The American Statistician 37 (2): 152-5.
56. Geisser, Seymour. 1975. " The Predictive SampleReuse Method with Applications. " Journal of the American Statistical Association 70 (350): 320-8.
57. Gibney, M., L. Cornett, and R. Wood. 2009. " Politial Terror Scale 1976-2006. " http://www.politicalterrorscale.org
58. Gill, Jeff. 1999. " The Insignificance of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing. " Political Research Quarterly 52 (3): 647-74.
59. Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2002. " Expanded Trade andGDPData. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (5): 712-24.
60. Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Michael D. Ward. 1997. " Double Take: A Reexamination of Democracy and Autocracy in Modern Polities. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3): 361-83.
61. Gurr, Ted Robert. 1986. The Political Origins of State Violence and Terror: A Theoretical Analysis. In Government Violence and Repression: An Agenda for Research, eds. Michael Stohl and George Lopez. New York: Greenwood Press.
62. Gurr, Ted Robert. 1988. " War, Revolution, and the Growth of the Coercive State. " Comparative Political Studies 21 (1): 45-65.
63. Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. 2005a. " Right or Robust? The Sensitive Nature of Repression to Globalization. " Journal of Peace Research 42 (6): 679-98.
64. Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. 2005b. " Trading Human Rights: How Preferential Trade Agreements Influence Government Repression. " International Organization 59 (3): 593-629.
65. Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. 2008. " Sticks and Stones: Naming and Shaming theHuman Rights Enforcement Problem. " International Organization 62 (4): 689-716.
66. Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., and Kiyoteru Tsutsui. 2005. " Human Rights in a Globalizing World: The Paradox of Empty Promises. " American Journal of Sociology 110 (5): 1373-411.
67. Harff, Barbara, and Ted Robert Gurr. 1988. " Toward Empirical Theory of Genocides and Politicides: Identification andMeasurement of Cases since 1945. " International Studies Quarterly 32 (3): 359-71.
68. Haschke, Peter. 2011. " Repression or Not: Physical Integrity Rights Violations in Contemporary Democracies. " Paper Presented at the AnnualMeeting of the Midwest Political Science Association.
69. Hastie, Trevor, Robert J. Tibshirani, and Jerome Friedman. 2008. Elements of Statistical Learning. New York: Springer-Verlag.
70. Hathaway, Oona A. 2002. " Do Human Rights Treaties Make a Difference?' Yale Law Journal 111: 1935-2042.
71. Hathaway, Oona A. 2004. The Promise and Limits of the InternationalLaw ofTorture. In Torture, ed. Sanford Levinson.NewYork: Oxford University Press, 199-212.
72. Hathaway, Oona A. 2007. " Why Do Countries Commit to Human Rights Treaties?' Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (4): 588-621.
73. Henderson, Conway. 1991. " Conditions Affecting the Use ofPolitical Repression. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 35: 120-42.
74. Henderson, Conway. 1993. " Population Pressures and Political Repression. " Social Science Quarterly 74 (2): 322-33.
75. Hibbs Jr, Douglas A. 1973. " Problems of Statistical Estimation and Causal Inference in Time-Series Regression Models. " Sociological Methodology 1974: 252-308.
76. Hill Jr., Daniel W. 2010. " Estimating the Effects of Human Rights Treaties on State Behavior. " The Journal of Politics 72 (4): 1161-74.
77. Hill Jr., DanielW. 2013. " The Concept of Personal IntegrityRights in EmpiricalResearch. " IPSA Committee on Concepts andMethods Working Paper Series on Political Concepts No. 59.
78. Hoff, Peter D., and Michael D.Ward. 2004. " ModelingDependencies in International Relations Networks. " Political Analysis 12 (2): 160-75.
79. Hollyer, James, and B. Peter Rosendorff. 2011. " Why do Authoritarian Regimes Sign the Convention Against Torture? Signaling, Domestic Politics and Non-Compliance. " Quarterly Journal of Political Science 6: 275-327.
80. Hothorn, Torsten, KurtHornik, andAchim Zeileis. 2006. " Unbiased Recursive Partitioning: A Conditional Inference Framework. " Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 15(3): 651-74.
81. Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Vol. 4. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.
82. Jones, Zachary M. 2013. " An Analysis of Polity IV and its Components. " http://zmjones.com/polity/.
83. Keith, Linda Camp. 1999. " The United Nations International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights: Does It Make aDifference in HumanRights Behavior?' Journal of Peace Research 36 (1): 95-118.
84. Keith, Linda Camp. 2002. " Constitutional Provisions for Individual Human Rights: Are They More Than Mere Window Dressing. " Political Research Quarterly 55: 111-43.
85. Keith, Linda Camp, C. NealTate, and Steve C. Poe. 2009. " Is the Law a Mere Parchment Barrier to Human Rights Abuse?' Journal of Politics 71 (2): 644-60.
86. Leamer, Edward, and Herman Leonard. 1983. " Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates. " The Review of Economics and Statistics 65 (2): 306-17.
87. Lee, John N., and John S. Ahlquist. 2011. " Justify My Love: A Re-Introduction to Out-of-Sample Prediction, Cross-Validation, and Model Selection for Applied Research. " Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association.
88. Lichbach, Mark. 1987. " Deterrence or Escalation? The Puzzle of Aggregate Studies of Repression andDissent. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 31: 266-97.
89. Linzer, Drew, and Jeffrey K. Staton. 2011. " A Measurement Model for Synthesizing Multiple Comparative Indicators: The Case of Judicial Independence. " Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.
90. Lupu, Yonatan. 2013. " Best Evidence: The Role of Information in Domestic Judicial Enforcement of International Human Rights Agreements. " International Organization 67 (3): 469-503.
91. Marshall, Monty G, Ted Robert Gurr, and Barbara Harff. 2009. " Political Instability Task Force State Failure Problem Set: Internal Wars and Failures ofGovernance, 1955-2009. " Dataset and Coding Guidelines.
92. Marshall, Monty, and Keith Jaggers. 2009. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2007. Data Users' Manual. Center for Systemic Peace. Available online at http:// www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/ p4manualv2007.pdf.
93. Meyer, William H. 1996. " Human Rights and MNCs: Theory versus Quantitative Analysis. " Human Rights Quarterly 18 (2): 368-97.
94. Mitchell, Neil J., and James M. McCormick. 1988. " Economic and PoliticalExplanations ofHumanRightsViolations.'WorldPolitics 40 (4): 476-98.
95. Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, Jonathan J. Ring, and Mary K. Spellman. 2013. " Domestic Legal Traditions and States' Human Rights Practices. " Journal of Peace Research 50 (2): 189-202.
96. Moore, Will H. 1995. " Action-Reaction or Rational Expectations? Reciprocity and theDomestic-International Conflict Nexus during theRhodesia Problem. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (1): 129-67.
97. Moore, Will H. 1998. " Repression andDissent: Substitution, Context and Timing. " American Journal of Political Science 45 (3): 851-73.
98. Moore, Will H. 2000. " The Repression of Dissent: A Substitution Model of Government Coercion. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (1): 107-27.
99. Moore, Will H. 2010. " Incarceration, Interrogation, and Counterterror: Do (Liberal) Democratic Institutions Constrain Leviathan?' PS: Political Science and Politics 43 (3): 421-4.
100. Munck, Gerardo L., and Jay Verkuilen. 2002. " Conceptualizing and MeasuringDemocracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices. " Comparative Political Studies 35 (1): 5-34.
101. Murdie, Amanda M., and David R.Davis. 2012. " Shaming andBlaming: Using Events Data to Assess the Impact of Human Rights INGOs. " International Studies Quarterly 56 (1): 1-16.
102. Murphy, Kevin P. 2012. Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
103. Neumayer, Eric. 2005. " Do InternationalHuman Rights Treaties Improve Respect for Human Rights?' Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (6): 925-53.
104. Nord̊as, Ragnhild, and Christian Davenport. 2013. " Fight the Youth: Youth Bulges and State Repression. " American Journal ofPolitical Science 57 (4): 926-40.
105. North, Douglass C., and Barry R. Weingast. 1989. " Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England. " The Journal of Economic History 49 (04): 803-32.
106. Ordeshook, Peter C. 1992. " Constitutional Stability. " Constitutional Political Economy 3 (2): 137-75.
107. Park, Han S. 1987. " Correlates of Human Rights: Global Tendencies. " Human Rights Quarterly 9 (3): 405-13.
108. Picard, Richard R., and R. Dennis Cook 1984. " Cross-Validation of Regression Models. " Journal of The American Statistical Association 79 (387): 575-83.
109. Pierskalla, , Jan Henryk. 2010. " Protest, Deterrence, and Escalation: The Strategic Calculus of Government Repression. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 54 (1): 117-45.
110. Poe, Steven C. 2004. The Decision to Repress: An Integrative Theoretical Approach to the Research on Human Rights and Repression. In Understanding Human Rights Violations: New Systematic Studies, eds. Sabine C. Carey and Steven C. Poe. Ashgate.
111. Poe, Steven C., Sabine C. Carey, and Tanya C. Vazquez. 2001. " How Are These Pictures Different? A Quantitative Comparison of the US State Department and Amnesty International Human Rights Reports, 1976-1995. " Human Rights Quarterly 23 (3): 650-77.
112. Poe, Steven C., Nicolas Rost, and Sabine C Carey. 2006. " Assessing Risk and Opportunity in Conflict Studies A Human Rights Analysis. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (4): 484-507.
113. Poe, Steven, and C. Neal Tate. 1994. " Repression of Personal IntegrityRights in the 1980's:AGlobalAnalysis. " AmericanPolitical Science Review 88: 853-72.
114. Poe, Steven, C. Neal Tate, and Linda CampKeith. 1999. " Repression of the Human Right to Personal Integrity Revisited: A Global, Cross-National Study Covering the Years 1976-1993. " International Studies Quarterly 43: 291-313.
115. Politis, D. N., J. P. Romano, and M. Wolf. 1999. Subsampling. New York: Springer.
116. Powell, Emilia Justyna, and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell. 2007. " The International Court of Justice and the World's Three Legal Systems. " Journal of Politics 69 (2): 397-415.
117. Powell, Emilia J., and Jeffrey K. Staton. 2009. " Domestic Judicial Institutions and Human Rights Treaty Violation. " International Studies Quarterly 53 (1): 149-74.
118. Rasler, Karen. 1996. " Concessions, Repression, and Political Protest in the Iranian Revolution. " American Sociological Review 132-52.
119. Rejali, Darius. 2007. Torture and Democracy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
120. Richards, David L., Ronald D. Gelleny, and David H. Sacko. 2001. " MoneyWith a Mean Streak? Foreign Economic Penetration and Government Respect for Human Rights in Developing Countries. " International Studies Quarterly 45 (2): 219-39.
121. Ŕios-Figueroa, Julio, and Jeffrey K. Staton. 2014. " An Evaluation of Cross-National Measures of Judicial Independence. " Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 30 (1): 104-37.
122. Ritter, Emily Hencken. 2014. " Policy Disputes, Political Survival, and the Onset and Severity of State Repression. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (1): 143-68.
123. Ron, James, Howard Ramos, andKathleen Rodgers. 2005. " Transnational Information Politics: NGOHuman Rights Reporting, 1986-2000. " International Studies Quarterly 49 (3): 557-88.
124. Ross, Michael. 2006. " A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War. " Annual Review of Political Science 9: 265-300.
125. Rummel, Rudolph J. 1995. " Democracy, Power, Genocide, andMass Murder. " Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (1): 3-26.
126. Schnakenberg, Keith E., and Christopher J. Fariss. 2014. " Dynamic Patterns of Human Rights Practices. " Political Science Research and Methods 2 (1): 1-31.
127. Shellman, Stephen M. 2006. " Leaders' Motivations andActions: Explaining Government-Dissident Conflict-Cooperation Processes. " Conflict Management and Peace Science 23 (1): 73-90.
128. Simmons, Beth A. 2009. Mobilizing for Human Rights: International Law in Domestic Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
129. Siroky, David S. et al. 2009. " Navigating Random Forests and Related Advances in Algorithmic Modeling. " Statistics Surveys 3: 147-63.
130. Somers, Robert H. 1962. " A New Asymmetric Measure of Association for Ordinal Variables. " American Sociological Review 27: 799-811.
131. Spilker, Gabriele, and Tobias Bohmelt. 2013. " The Impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on Governmental Repression Revisited. " Review of International Organizations 8 (3): 343-61.
132. Staton, Jeffrey K. 2006. " Constitutional Review and the Selective Promotion of Case Results. " American Journal of Political Science 50 (1): 98-112.
133. Staton, Jeffrey K., and Will H. Moore. 2011. " Judicial Power in Domestic and International Politics. " International Organization 65 (3): 553-87.
134. Stohl, Michael, David Carleton, George Lopez, and Stephen Samuels. 1986. " State Violation of Human Rights: Issues and Problems of Measurement. " Human Rights Quarterly 8: 592.
135. Strobl, Carolin, Anne-Laure Boulesteix, Achim Zeileis, and Torsten Hothorn. 2007. " Bias in Random Forest Variable Importance Measures: Illustrations, Sources and a Solution. " BMC Bioinformatics 8 (1): 25.
136. Strobl, Carolin, James Malley, and Gerhard Tutz. 2009. " An Introduction to Recursive Partitioning: Rationale, Application, and Characteristics of Classification and Regression Trees, Bagging, and Random Forests. " Psychological Methods 14 (4): 323.
137. Summers, Robert, and Alan Heston. 1991. " The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988. " The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (2): 327-68.
138. Taylor, Charles L., and David Jodice. 1983. " World Handbook of Social and Political Indicators. " New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
139. Themńer, Lotta, and Peter Wallensteen. 2012. " Armed Conflicts, 1946-2011. " Journal of Peace Research 49 (4): 565-75.
140. Tilly, Charles. 1978. From Mobilization to Revolution. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
141. Tilly, Charles. 1985. War Making and State Making as Organized Crime. In Bringing the State Back In, ed. Theda Skocpol. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 169-91.
142. Urdal, Henrik. 2006. " A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence. " International Studies Quarterly 50 (3): 607-29.
143. Vanberg, Georg. 2005. The Politics of Constitutional Review in Germany. New York: Cambridge University Press.
144. Vreeland, James R. 2008. " Political Institutions and Human Rights: Why Dictatorships Enter into the United Nations Convention Against Torture. " International Organization 62 (01): 65-101.
145. Ward, Michael D., and John S. Ahlquist. 2014. Maximum Likelihood Strategies for Social Sciences: Strategies for Analysis. Unpublished manuscript.
146. Ward, Michael D., Brian D. Greenhill, and Kristin M. Bakke. 2010. " The Perils of Policy by P-Value: Predicting Civil Conflicts. " Journal of Peace Research 47 (4): 363-75.
147. Ward, Michael D., and Peter D. Hoff. 2007. " Persistent Patterns of International Commerce. " Journal of Peace Research 44 (2): 157-75.
148. Ward, Michael D., Nils W. Metternich, Cassy Dorff, Max Gallop, Florian M. Hollenbach, Anna Schultz, and Simon Weschle. 2012. " Learning From the Past and Stepping Inot The Future: The Next Generation of Crisis Predition. " International Studies Review 15 (4): 473-90.
149. Ward, Michael D., Randolph M. Siverson, and Xun Cao. 2007. " Disputes, Democracies, and Dependencies: A Reexamination of the Kantian Peace. " American Journal of Political Science 51 (3): 583-601.
150. Weingast, Barry. 1997. " The Political Foundations of Democracy and the Rule of Law. " American Political Science Review 91 (2): 245-63.
151. Wood, Reed M., and Mark Gibney. 2010. " The Political Terror Scale (PTS): A Re-Introduction and a Comparison to CIRI. " Human Rights Quarterly 32 (2): 367-400.