Improving quantitative studies of international conflict: A conjecture

American Political Science Review

Volumn 94, Issue 1, 2000, Pages 21-35

  Beck, Nathaniel ^a   King, Gary ^b   Zeng, Langche ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0034336530     PISSN: 00030554     EISSN: 15375943     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0003055400220078     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Barbieri, Katherine. 1996. "Economic Interdependence - A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict." Journal of Peace Research 33 (1): 29-49.
2. Barron, A. R. 1993. "Universal Approximation Bounds for Superpositions of a Sigmoid Function." IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 39: 930-45.
3. Beck, Nathaniel, and Simon Jackman. 1998. "Beyond Linearity by Default: Generalized Additive Models." American Journal of Political Science 42 (2): 596-627.
4. Beck, Nathaniel, Jonathan Katz, and Richard Tucker. 1998. "Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable." American Journal of Political Science 42 (4): 1260-88.
5. Beck, Nathaniel, and Richard Tucker. 1998. "Democracy and Peace: General Law or Limited Phenomenon?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April.
6. Bishop, C. M. 1995. Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
7. Bremer, Stuart. 1992. "Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965." Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (June): 309-41.
8. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1981. The War Trap. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
9. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and David Lalman. 1992. War and Reason: Domestic and International Imperatives. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
10. Cheng, B., and D. M. Titterington. 1994. "Neural Networks: A Review from a Statistical Perspective." Statistical Science 9 (1): 2-54.
11. Eisinga, Rob, Philip Hans Franses, and Dick Van Dijk. 1998. "Timing of Vote Decisions in First and Second Order Dutch Elections 1978-1995: Evidence from Artificial Neural Networks." Political Analysis 7: 117-42.
12. Farber, Henry, and Joanne Gowa. 1998. "Building Bridges Abroad." Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3): 455-6.
13. Gallant, A. Ronald. 1981. "On the Bias in Flexible Functional Forms and an Essentially Unbiased Form: The Fourier Flexible Form." Journal of Econometrics 15 (2): 211-45.
14. Geller, Daniel S., and J. David Singer. 1998. Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press.
15. Gochman, Charles S., and Zeev Maoz. 1984. "Militarized Interstate Disputes 1816-1976." Journal of Conflict Resolution 28 (4): 585-615.
16. Hertz, John, Anders Krogh, and Richard Palmer. 1991. Introduction to the Theory of Neural Computation. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
17. Holland, John. 1998. Emergence: From Chaos to Order. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
18. Hornik, Kurt. 1990. "Approximation Capabilities of Multilayer Feed-forward Networks." Neural Networks 4 (2): 251-7.
19. Jaggers, Keith, and Ted Robert Gurr. 1996. Polity III: Regime Change and Political Authority, 1800-1994 (computer file) (Study #6695). 2d ICPSR version. Boulder, CO: Keith Jaggers/College Park, MD: Ted Robert Gurr [producers], 1995. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor].
20. Jones, Daniel M., Stuart Bremer, and J. David Singer. 1996. "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns." Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (2): 163-213.
21. King, Gary. 1989. "Event Count Models for International Relations: Generalizations and Applications." International Studies Quarterly 33 (2): 123-47.
22. King, Gary, and Christopher Murray. 2000. "Rethinking Human Security." Harvard University. Typescript.
23. King, Gary, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg. 2000. "Making the Most of Statistical Analysis: Improving Interpretation and Presentation." American Journal of Political Science 44 (April): 341-55.
24. King, Gary, and Langche Zeng. 1999. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, September. (http://GKing.Harvard.edu.)
25. Kuan, C. M., and Halbert White. 1994. "Artificial Neural Networks: An Econometric Perspective." Econometric Reviews 13 (1): 1-91.
26. Levy, Jack S. 1989. "The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence." In Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, vol. 1, ed. Phillip E. Tetlock, Jo L. Husbands, Robert Jervis, Paul C. Stern, and Charles Tilly. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press. Pp. 2120-333.
27. MacKay, D. J. C. 1992a. "Bayesian Interpolation." Neural Computation 4 (3): 415-47.
28. MacKay, D. J. C. 1992b. "A Practical Bayesian Framework for Backprop Networks." Neural Computation 4 (3): 448-72.
29. MacKay, D. J. C. 1992c. "The Evidence Framework Applied to Classification Networks." Neural Computation 4 (5): 698-714.
30. MacKay, D. J. C. 1994. "Bayesian Methods for Backpropagation Networks." In Models of Neural Networks, vol. III, chap. 6, ed. Etan Domany, J. L. van Hemmen, and Klaus Schulten. New York: Springer-Verlag. Pp. 211-54.
31. Mansfield, Edward D., and James Snyder. 1997. "A Tale of Two Democratic Peace Critiques: A Reply to Thompson and Tucker." Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3): 457-61.
32. Maoz, Zeev. 1996. Domestic Sources of Global Change. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
33. Maoz, Zeev, and Bruce Russett. 1993. "Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace: 1946-1986." American Political Science Review 87 (September): 639-56.
34. Muller, Berndt, and Joachim Reinhardt. 1990. Neural Networks: An Introduction. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
35. Nagler, Jonathan. 1991. "The Effect of Registration Laws and Education on U.S. Voter Turnout." American Political Science Review 85 (December): 1393-1405.
36. Neal, R. M. 1996. Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
37. Oneal, John R., and Bruce Russett. 1997. "The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985." International Studies Quarterly 41 (2): 267-94.
38. Ray, James Lee, and J. David Singer. 1973. "Measuring the Concentration of Power in the International System." Sociological Methods and Research 1 (4): 403-37.
39. Richardson, Lewis Fry. 1960. Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, ed. Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau. Pittsburgh: Boxwood.
40. Ripley, Brian D. 1996. Pattern Recognition and Neural Networks. New York: Cambridge University Press.
41. Rosenau, James N., ed. 1976. In Search of Global Patterns. New York: Free Press.
42. Rumelhart, D. E., James L. McClelland, and the PDP Research Group. 1986. Parallel Distributed Processing: Explorations in the Microstructure of Cognition. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
43. Schrodt, Philip. 1995. "Patterns, Rules and Learning: Computational Models of International Behavior." Unpublished manuscript available at http://polmeth.calpoly.edu.
44. Signorino, Curtis. 1999. "Strategic Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of International Conflict." American Political Science Review 93 (June): 279-98.
45. Signorino, Curtis, and J. M. Ritter. 1999. "Tau-b or Not Tau-b: Measuring the Similarity of Foreign Policy Positions." International Studies Quarterly 43 (1): 115-44.
46. Singer, J. David, and Melvin Small. 1993. National Material Capabilities Data, 1816-1985 (computer file) (Study #9903). Ann Arbor, MI: J. David Singer, University of Michigan, and Melvin Small, Detroit, MI: Wayne State University [producers], 1990. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor].
47. Smith, Alastair. 1998. "A Summary of Political Selection: The Effect of Strategic Choice on the Escalation of International Crises." American Journal of Political Science 42 (2): 698-701.
48. Thompson, William R., and Richard M. Tucker. 1997. "A Tale of Two Democratic Peace Critiques." Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3): 428-54.
49. Tucker, Richard. 1997. "Dyad-Hard: The Interstate Dyad-Year Dataset Creator." Political Methodologist 8 (1): 28-9.
50. Tucker, Richard. 1999. "The Similarity of Alliance Portfolios." http://www.vanderbilt.edu/~rtucker/data/affinity/alliance/similar/.
51. Vasquez, John A. 1993. The War Puzzle. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
52. White, Halbert. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks, Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK, and Cambridge, MA: Blackwell.
53. Zeng, Langche. 1999. "Prediction and Classification with Neural Network Models." Sociological Methods and Research 27 (4): 499-524.
54. Zeng, Langche. 2000. "Neural Network Models and Political Data Analysis," In Political Complexity: Nonlinear Models of Politics, ed. Diana Richards. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pp. 239-68.