Learning from the past and stepping into the future: Toward a new generation of conflict prediction

International Studies Review

Volumn 15, Issue 4, 2013, Pages 473-490

  Ward, Michael D ^a   Metternich, Nils W ^b   Dorff, Cassy L ^a   Gallop, Max ^a   Hollenbach, Florian M ^a   Schultz, Anna ^a   Weschle, Simon ^a  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; CONFLICT MANAGEMENT; FORECASTING METHOD; HEURISTICS; POLITICAL CONFLICT; PREDICTION;

EID: 84898596896     PISSN: 15219488     EISSN: 14682486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/misr.12072     Document Type: Review

References (72)

1. Army Environmental Policy Institute. (2011) Environmental Change and Fragile States: Early Warning Needs, Opportunities, & Intervention. Fort Belvoir, VA: AEPI Report.
2. Azar, Edward,. (1980) The Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) Project. Journal of Conflict Resolution 24: 143-152.
3. Bennett, D. Scott, and, Allan C. Stam,. (2009) Revisiting Predictions of War Duration. Conflict Management and Peace Science 26 (3): 256.
4. Bond, Doug, Joe Bond, Churl Oh, J. Craig Jenkins, and, Charles L. Taylor,. (2003) Integrated Data for Events Analysis (IDEA): An Event Typology for Automated Events Data Development. Journal of Peace Research 40 (6): 733-745.
5. Brandt, Patrick T., Michael Colaresi, and, John R. Freeman,. (2008) The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability, and Credibility. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (3): 343-374.
6. Brandt, Patrick T., John R. Freeman, and, Philip A. Schrodt,. (2011a) Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Political Conflict. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28 (1): 41-64.
7. Brandt, Patrick T., John R. Freeman, and, Philip A. Schrodt,. (2011b) Racing Horses: Constructing and Evaluating Forecasts in Political Science. Presented at the Society for Political Methodology 28th Annual Summer Meeting. Princeton, NJ.
8. Bremer, Stuart A., and, Thomas R. Cusack,. (1995) The Process of War: Advancing the Scientific Study of War. Luxembourg and Philadelphia, PA: Gordon and Breach.
9. Brier, Glenn W., (1950) Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability. Monthly Weather Review 78 (1): 1-3.
10. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce,. (2002) Predicting Politics. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.
11. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce,. (2010) Judging Judgment. Critical Review 22 (4): 355-388.
12. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and, Alastair M. Smith,. (2009) Political Survival and Endogenous Institutional Change. Comparative Political Studies 42 (2): 167-197.
13. Campbell, James E., (1992) Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States. American Journal of Political Science 36 (2): 386-407.
14. Cederman, Lars-Erik, and, Kristian S. Gleditsch,. (2009) Introduction to Special Issue on "Disaggregating Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (4): 487-495.
15. Cederman, Lars-Erik, Andreas Wimmer, and, Brian Min,. (2010) Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis. World Politics 62 (1): 87-119.
16. Choucri, Nazli, and, Thomas W. Robinson, Eds. (1978) Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.
17. Clauset, Aaron, and, Ryan Woodard,. (2013) Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Terrorist Events. Annals of Applied Statistics (Forthcoming).
18. Davies, John L., and, Ted R. Gurr,. (1998) Preventive Measures: Building Risk Assessment and Crisis Early Warning Systems. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.
19. de Marchi, Scott, Christopher Gelpi, and, Jeffrey D. Grynaviski,. (2004) Untangling Neural Nets. American Political Science Review 98 (2): 371-378.
20. Doran, Charles F., (1999) Why Forecasts Fail: The Limits and Potential of Forecasting in International Relations and Economics. International Studies Review 1 (2): 11-41.
21. Enders, Walter, and, Todd Sandler,. (2005) After 9/11: Is It All Different Now? Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (2): 259-277.
22. Fearon, James D., and, David D. Laitin,. (2003) Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review 97 (1): 75-90.
23. Feder, Stanley,. (1995) Factions and Policon: New Ways to Analyze Politics. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, edited by, H. B. Westerfield,. New Haven: Yale University Press.
24. Feder, Stanley A., Ed. (2002) Forecasting for Policy Making in the Post-Cold War Period. Annual Review of Political Science 5: 111-125.
25. Fischhoff, Baruch, and, Cherie Chauvin, Eds. (2011) Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
26. Freeman, John R., and, Brian L. Job,. (1979) Scientific Forecasts in International Relations: Problems of Definition and Epistemology. International Studies Quarterly 23 (1): 113-143.
27. Gelman, Andrew, and, Jennifer Hill,. (2007) Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge: Analytical Methods for Social Research Cambridge, UK and NYC.
28. Gerner, Deborah J., Philip A. Schrodt, and, Ömür Yilmaz,. (2009) Conflict and Mediation Event Observations (CAMEO) Codebook. Available at: http://eventdata.psu.edu/data.dir/cameo.html.
29. Gleditsch, Kristian S., and, Michael D. Ward,. (2010) Contentious Issues and Forecasting Interstate Disputes. Presented to the 2010 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association.
30. Gneiting, Tilmann, and, Adrian E. Raftery,. (2007) Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association 102 (477): 359-378.
31. Goldstone, Jack A., Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Ted R. Gurr, Michael B. Lustik, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, and, Mark Woodward,. (2010) A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability. American Journal of Political Science 54 (1): 190-208.
32. Greenhill, Brian D., Michael D. Ward, and, Audrey Sacks,. (2011) The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models. American Journal of Political Science 55 (4): 991-1003.
33. Gurr, Ted R., (1974) Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800-1971. American Political Science Review 74 (4): 1482-1504.
34. Gurr, Ted R., and, Barbara Harff,. (1996) Early Warning of Communal Conflict and Humanitarian Crisis. Tokyo: United Nations University Press, Monograph Series on Governance and Conflict Resolution.
35. Gurr, Ted R., and, Mark I. Lichbach,. (1986) Forecasting Internal Conflict: A Competitive Evaluation of Empirical Theories. Comparative Political Studies 19 (1): 3-38.
36. Hegre, Håvard, Håvard Nygård, Håvard Strand, Henrik Urdal, and, Joakim Karlsen,. (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2011-2050. International Studies Quarterly (Forthcoming).
37. Hewitt, J. Joseph, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, and, Ted R. Gurr,. (2010) Peace and Conflict 2010. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers.
38. Hildebrand, David K., James D. Laing, and, Howard Rosenthal,. (1976) Prediction Analysis in Political Research. American Political Science Review 70 (2): 509-535.
39. King, Gary, and, Langche Zeng,. (2001) Improving Forecasts of State Failure. World Politics 53 (4): 623-658.
40. Krause, George A., (1997) Voters, Information Heterogeneity, and the Dynamics of Aggregate Economic Expectations. American Journal of Political Science 41 (4): 1170-1200.
41. Laitin, David D., and, James D. Fearon,. (2009) Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Methods. In Oxford Handbook of Political Science, edited by, Robert E. Goodin,. New York: Oxford University Press.
42. Leblang, David, and, Shanker Satyanath,. (2006) Institutions, Expectations, and Currency Crises. International Organization 60 (01): 245-262.
43. Leetaru, Kalev, and, Philip A. Schrodt,. (2013) GDELT Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone, 1979-2012. Presented at the Annual Meetings of the International Studies Association, April 2013, San Francisco, CA.
44. Leng, Russell J., (1993) Interstate Crisis Behavior, 1816-1980: Realism versus Reciprocity. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
45. Lynch, Peter,. (2006) The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson's Dream. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
46. Marshall, Monty G., Keith Jaggers, and, Ted R. Gurr,. (2009) Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transition 1800-2007. College Park, MD: CIDCM, University of Maryland.
47. Maybury, Mark,. (2010) Social Radar for Smart Power. Technical Papers 10-0745 Mitre Corporation Bedford, MA.
48. McClelland, Charles A., and, Gary Hoggard,. (1969) Conflict Patterns in the Interactions among Nations. In International Politics and Foreign Policy, edited by, James N. Rosenau,. New York: The Free Press.
49. McGowan, Pat, Harvey Starr, Gretchen Hower, Richard L. Merritt, and, Dina A. Zinnes,. (1988) International Data as a National Resource. Vol. 14 of International Interactions: Special Issue. New York: Taylor and Francis.
50. Milstein, Jeffery S., (1974) Dynamics of the Vietnam War. Columbus, OH, Ohio State University Press.
51. Milstein, Jeffrey S., and, William C. Mitchell,. (1968) Dynamics of the Vietnam Conflict. Peace Research Society (International) Papers 10 163-213.
52. Montgomery, Jacob M., Florian M. Hollenbach, and, Michael D. Ward,. (2012) Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging. Political Analysis 20 (3): 271-291.
53. Murdie, Amanda,. (2011): A Risk Assessment Model of the Determinants of Political Violence. Technical report Council on Foreign Relations Washington, DC.
54. O'Brien, Sean P., (2002) Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (6): 791-811.
55. O'Brien, Sean P., (2010) Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support: Contemporary Approaches and Thoughts on Future Research. International Studies Review 12 (1): 87-104.
56. Pevehouse, Jon C., and, Joshua S. Goldstein,. (1999) Serbian Compliance or Defiance in Kosovo? Statistical Analysis and Real-Time Predictions. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (4): 538-546.
57. Pinheiro, J. C., and, D. M. Bates,. (2009) Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-Plus. Statistics and Computing. New York: Springer.
58. Raleigh, Clionadh, Andrew Linke, Håvard Hegre, and, Joakim Karlsen,. (2010) Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset: Special Data Feature. Journal of Peace Research 47 (5): 651-660.
59. Richardson, Lewis F., (1922) Weather Prediction by Numerical Process. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
60. Richardson, Lewis F., (1960) Statistics of Deadly Quarrels. Chicago and Pittsburgh, PA: Quadrangle/Boxwood.
61. Sarkees, Meredith R., Frank W. Wayman, and, David J. Singer,. (2003) Inter-State, Intra-State, and Extra-State Wars: A Comprehensive Look at Their Distribution Over Time, 1816-1997. International Studies Quarterly 47 (1): 47-70.
62. Schrodt, Philip A., and, Deborah J. Gerner,. (2000) Using Cluster Analysis to Derive Early Warning Indicators for Political Change in the Middle East, 1979-1996. American Political Science Review 94 (4): 803-818.
63. Singer, J. D., and, Michael D. Wallace, Eds. (1979) To Augur Well: Early Warning Indicators in World Politics. Beverly Hills, CA: SAGE.
64. Sorokin, Pitirim A., (1937) Social and Cultural Dynamics. London: Owen.
65. Stevens, Jacqueline,. (2012) Political Scientists Are Lousy Forecasters. New York Times June 23.
66. Tetlock, Philip,. (2005) Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
67. Tetlock, Philip E., (2010) Second Thoughts about Expert Political Judgment: Reply to the Symposium. Critical Review 22 (4): 467-488.
68. Themnér, Lotta, and, Peter Wallensteen,. (2012) Armed Conflict, 1946-2011. Journal of Peace Research 49 (4): 565-575.
69. Vincent, Jack E., (1980) Scientific Prediction versus Crystal Ball Gazing: Can the Unknown Be Known? International Studies Quarterly 24 (3): 450-454.
70. Ward, Michael D., Randolph M. Siverson, and, Xun Cao,. (2007) Disputes, Democracies, and Dependencies: A Reexamination of the Kantian Peace. American Journal of Political Science 51 (3): 583-601.
71. World Bank. (Annual) World Development Indicators. URL: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.
72. Wright, Quincy,. (1942) A Study of War, Reprinted 1957 ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.