Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

Climate Research

Volumn 56, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 231-244

  Shi, Feng ^a,b   Yang, Bao ^b   Mairesse, Aurélien ^c   Von Gunten, Lucien ^d   Li, Jianping ^a   Bräuning, Achim ^e   Yang, Fengmei ^f   Xiao, Xia ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^b Chinese Academy of Sciences   (China)

^c UNIVERSITÉ CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN   (Belgium)

^d UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

^e UNIVERSITY OF ERLANGEN NUREMBERG   (Germany)

^f NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTER   (China)

Author keywords

Climate change; Global warming; Palaeoclimatology; Temperature reconstruction

Indexed keywords

AUTO REGRESSIVE MODELS; CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL OF INTERMEDIATE COMPLEXITY; PALAEOCLIMATOLOGY; RECONSTRUCTION TECHNIQUES; TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION; TEMPERATURE VARIATION;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; GLOBAL WARMING; SEDIMENTS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FORESTRY;

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; GLOBAL WARMING; ICE CORE; LACUSTRINE DEPOSIT; MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; PALEOCLIMATE; PALEOTEMPERATURE; PROXY CLIMATE RECORD; RECONSTRUCTION; SPELEOTHEM; TEMPERATURE PROFILE; TREE RING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84878162803     PISSN: 0936577X     EISSN: 16161572     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/cr01156     Document Type: Article

References (88)

1. Ammann CM, Wahl ER (2007) The importance of the geophysical context in statistical evaluations of climate reconstruction procedures. Clim Change 85:71-88 (Pubitemid 47546895)
2. Anchukaitis KJ, Breitenmoser P, Briffa KR, Buchwal A, and others (2012) Tree rings and volcanic cooling. Nat Geosci 5: 836-837
3. Andersen KK, Ditlevsen PD, Rasmussen SO, Clausen HB, Vinther BM, Johnsen SJ, Steffensen JP (2006) Retrieving a common accumulation record from Greenland ice cores for the past 1800 years. J Geophys Res 111: D15106, doi: 10.1029/ 2005 JD 006765
4. Bird BW, Abbott MB, Finney BP, Kutchko B (2009) A 2000 year varve-based climate record from the central Brooks Range, Alaska. J Paleolimnol 41: 25-41
5. Braconnot P, Harrison SP, Kageyama M, Bartlein PJ and others (2012) Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data. Nat Clim Change 2: 417-424
6. Briffa KR (2000) Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees. Quat Sci Rev 19: 87-105 (Pubitemid 30018288)
7. Briffa KR, Melvin TM (2011) A closer look at regional curve standardization of tree-ring records: justification of the need, a warning of some pitfalls, and suggested improvements in its application. In: Hughes MK, Swetnam TW, Diaz HF (eds) Dendroclimatology: progress and prospects, Vol 11. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, p 133-145
8. Briffa KR, Jones PD, Bartholin TS, Eckstein D and others (1992) Fennoscandian summers from AD 500: temperature changes on short and long timescales. Clim Dyn 7: 111-119
9. Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Harris IC, Jones PD, Shiyatov SG, Vaganov EA (2001) Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network. J Geophys Res D Atmospheres 106: 2929-2941
10. Briffa KR, Shishov VV, Melvin TM, Vaganov EA and others (2008) Trends in recent temperature and radial tree growth spanning 2000 years across northwest Eurasia. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B 363: 2269-2282
11. Brohan P, Kennedy J, Harris I, Tett S, Jones P (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res 111: D12106, doi: 10.1029/ 2005 JD 006548
12. Büntgen U, Frank DC, Nievergelt D, Esper J (2006) Summer temperature variations in the European Alps, AD 755- 2004. J Clim 19: 5606-5623 (Pubitemid 44817039)
13. Christiansen B (2011) Reconstructing the NH mean temperature: can underestimation of trends and variability be avoided? J Clim 24: 674-692
14. Christiansen B, Ljungqvist FC (2012) The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability. Clim Past 8: 765-786
15. Cook ER, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1994) Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology: a review and comparison of two techniques. Int J Climatol 14: 379-402 (Pubitemid 24404306)
16. Cook ER, Briffa KR, Meko DM, Graybill DA, Funkhouser G (1995) The 'segment length curse' in long tree-ring chrono logy development for palaeoclimatic studies. Holocene 5: 229-237
17. Cook E, Esper J, D'Arrigo R (2004a) Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere land temperature variability over the past 1000 years. Quat Sci Rev 23: 2063-2074 (Pubitemid 39308377)
18. Cook E, Woodhouse C, Eakin C, Meko D, Stahle D (2004b) Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science 306: 1015-1018 (Pubitemid 39482901)
19. Cook T, Bradley R, Stoner J, Francus P (2009) Five thousand years of sediment transfer in a high arctic watershed recorded in annually laminated sediments from Lower Murray Lake, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada. J Paleolimnol 41: 77-94
20. Crowley TJ, Lowery TS (2000) How warm was the medieval warm period? Ambio 29: 51-54 (Pubitemid 30149656)
21. D'Arrigo R, Jacoby G, Frank D, Pederson N and others (2001) 1738 years of Mongolian temperature variability inferred from a tree-ring width chronology of Siberian pine. Geophys Res Lett 28: 543-546
22. D'Arrigo R, Wilson R, Jacoby G (2006) On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. J Geophys Res 111: D03103, doi: 10.1029/ 2005 JD 006352
23. Esper J, Cook E, Schweingruber F (2002a) Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295: 2250-2253 (Pubitemid 34258835)
24. Esper J, Schweingruber F, Winiger M (2002b) 1300 years of climatic history for Western Central Asia inferred from tree-rings. Holocene 12: 267-277 (Pubitemid 34409278)
25. Esper J, Frank D, Wilson R, Briffa K (2005) Effect of scaling and regression on reconstructed temperature amplitude for the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett 32: L07711, doi: 10.1029/ 2004 GL021236
26. Fisher DA, Koerner RM, Kuiviner K, Clausen HB and others (1996) Inter-comparison of ice core and precipitation records from sites in Canada and Greenland over the last 3500 years and over the last few centuries in detail using EOF techniques. NATO ASI Ser 1, Vol 41, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, p 297-328
27. Fritts H (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic Press, London
28. Gent PR, Danabasoglu G, Donner LJ, Holland MM and others (2011) The community climate system model version 4. J Clim 24: 4973-4991
29. Goosse H, Brovkin V, Fichefet T, Haarsma R and others (2010) Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2. Geosci Model Dev 3: 603-633
30. Grudd H (2008) Torneträsk tree-ring width and density AD 500-2004: a test of climatic sensitivity and a new 1500- year reconstruction of north Fennoscandian summers. Clim Dyn 31: 843-857
31. Hantemirov R, Shiyatov S (2002) A continuous multimillennial ring-width chronology in Yamal, northwestern Siberia. Holocene 12: 717-726 (Pubitemid 35391541)
32. Hegerl GC, Crowley TJ, Hyde WT, Frame DJ (2006) Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature 440: 1029-1032
33. Hegerl GC, Crowley TJ, Allen M, Hyde WT, Pollack HN, Smerdon J, Zorita E (2007) Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction. J Clim 20: 650-666 (Pubitemid 46332532)
34. Hughes MK (2011) Dendroclimatology in high-resolution paleoclimatology. In: Hughes MK, Swetnam TW, Diaz HF (eds) Dendroclimatology: progress and prospects, Vol 11. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, p 17-36
35. Jansen E, Overpeck J, Briffa K, Duplessy J and others (2007) Palaeoclimate. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
36. Jones PD, Briffa KR, Barnett TP, Tett SFB (1998) High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures. Holocene 8: 455-471 (Pubitemid 28382150)
37. Jones PD, Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Lough JM and others (2009) High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects. Holocene 19: 3-49
38. Jones PD, Lister DH, Osborn TJ, Harpham C, Salmon M, Morice CP (2012) Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2010. J Geophys Res 117: D05127, doi: 10. 1029/ 2011 JD017139
39. Jungclaus JH, Lorenz SJ, Timmreck C, Reick CH and others (2010) Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium. Clim Past 6: 723-737
40. Kaufman DS, Schneider DP, McKay NP, Ammann CM, and others (2009) Recent warming reverses long-term Arctic cooling. Science 325: 1236-1239
41. Küttel M, Luterbacher J, Zorita E, Xoplaki E, Riedwyl N, Wanner H (2007) Testing a European winter surface temperature reconstruction in a surrogate climate. Geophys Res Lett 34: L07710, doi: 10.1029/ 2006 GL027907
42. Linderholm HW, Gunnarson BE (2005) Summer temperature variability in central Scandinavia during the last 3600 years. Geogr Ann, Ser A 87: 231-241 (Pubitemid 40869760)
43. Lindholm M, Jalkanen R, Salminen H, Aalto T, Ogurtsov M (2011) The height-increment record of summer temperature extended over the last millennium in Fennoscandia. Holocene 21: 319-326
44. Liu Y, An Z, Linderholm H, Chen D and others (2009) Annual temperatures during the last 2485 years in the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from tree rings. Sci China D Earth Sci 52: 348-359
45. Ljungqvist FC (2010) A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two 2 millennia. Geogr Ann, Ser A 92: 339-351
46. Loso M (2009) Summer temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age inferred from varved proglacial lake sediments in southern Alaska. J Paleo - limnol 41: 117-128
47. Luckman B, Wilson R (2005) Summer temperatures in the Canadian Rockies during the last millennium: a revised record. Clim Dyn 24: 131-144 (Pubitemid 40473198)
48. Luterbacher J, Dietrich D, Xoplaki E, Grosjean M, Wanner H (2004) European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science 303: 1499-1503 (Pubitemid 38314415)
49. Mangini A, Spötl C, Verdes P (2005) Reconstruction of temperature in the Central Alps during the past 2000 yr from a ?18O stalagmite record. Earth Planet Sci Lett 235: 741-751 (Pubitemid 40912061)
50. Mann ME (2007) Climate over the past two millennia. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 35: 111-136 (Pubitemid 46930393)
51. Mann ME, Jones PD (2003) Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophys Res Lett 30: 1820, doi: 10.1029/ 2003 GL017814
52. Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1998) Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392: 779-787 (Pubitemid 28225311)
53. Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1999) Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophys Res Lett 26: 759-762 (Pubitemid 29285926)
54. Mann ME, Zhang ZH, Hughes MK, Bradley RS, Miller SK, Rutherford S, Ni FB (2008) Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 13252-13257
55. Mann ME, Zhang ZH, Rutherford S, Bradley RS and others (2009) global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 326: 1256-1260
56. Mann ME, Fuentes JD, Rutherford S (2012) Underestimation of volcanic cooling in tree-ring-based reconstructions of hemispheric temperatures. Nat Geosci 5: 202-205
57. McShane BB, Wyner AJ (2011) A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable? Ann Appl Stat 5: 5-44
58. Meese D, Gow A, Grootes P, Stuiver M and others (1994) The accumulation record from the GISP2 core as an indicator of climate change throughout the Holocene. Science 266: 1680-1682
59. Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, Karlén W (2005) Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433: 613-617 (Pubitemid 40282990)
60. Moore J, Hughen K, Miller G, Overpeck J (2001) Little Ice Age recorded in summer temperature reconstruction from vared sediments of Donard Lake, Baffin Island, Canada. J Paleolimnol 25: 503-517 (Pubitemid 32532905)
61. Naurzbaev M, Vaganov E (2000) Variation of early summer and annual temperature in east Taymir and Putoran (Siberia) over the last two millennia inferred from tree rings. J Geophys Res 105: 7317-7326
62. Naurzbaev M, Vaganov E, Sidorova O, Schweingruber F (2002) Summer temperatures in eastern Taimyr inferred from a 2427-year late-Holocene tree-ring chronology and earlier floating series. Holocene 12: 727-736 (Pubitemid 35391542)
63. Neukom R, Luterbacher J, Villalba R, Kuttel M and others (2011) Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries. Clim Dyn 37: 35-51
64. Osborn TJ, Briffa KR (2006) The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years. Science 311: 841-844 (Pubitemid 43228846)
65. Plummer M (2003) JAGS: a program for analysis of Bayesian graphical models using Gibbs sampling. In: Hornik K, Leisch F, Zeileis A (ed) Proc 3rd Int Workshop DSC, March 20-22, Vienna
66. Proctor, Baker A, Barnes W (2002) A three thousand year record of North Atlantic climate. Clim Dyn 19: 449-454 (Pubitemid 34986928)
67. Proctor C, Baker A, Barnes W, Gilmour M (2000) A thousand year speleothem proxy record of North Atlantic climate from Scotland. Clim Dyn 16: 815-820
68. Qian W, Hu Q, Zhu Y, Lee D (2003) Centennial-scale drywet variations in East Asia. Clim Dyn 21: 77-89 (Pubitemid 37014762)
69. Riedwyl N, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2008) An ensemble of European summer and winter temperature reconstructions back to 1500. Geophys Res Lett 35: L20707, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035395
70. Riedwyl N, Kuttel M, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2009) Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques: application to Europe. Clim Dyn 32: 381-395
71. Rutherford S, Mann ME, Osborn TJ, Bradley RS, Briffa KR, Hughes MK, Jones PD (2005) Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: sensitivity to method, predictor network, target season, and target domain. J Clim 18: 2308-2329 (Pubitemid 41460982)
72. Schmidt GA, Ruedy R, Hansen JE, Aleinov I and others (2006) Present-day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: comparison to in situ, satellite, and reanalysis data. J Clim 19: 153-192
73. Schmidt GA, Mann ME, Rutherford SD (2011) Discussion of: a statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable? Ann Appl Stat 5: 65-70
74. Schmidt GA, Jungclaus JH, Ammann CM, Bard E and others (2012) Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1). Geosci Model Dev 5: 185-191
75. Schneider T (2001) Analysis of incomplete climate data: estimation of mean values and covariance matrices and imputation of missing values. J Clim 14: 853-871 (Pubitemid 33053219)
76. Smerdon JE (2011) Discussion of: a statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable. Ann Appl Stat 5: 76-79
77. Tan M, Liu T, Hou J, Qin X, Zhang H, Li T (2003) Cyclic rapid warming on centennial-scale revealed by a 2650- year stalagmite record of warm season temperature. Geophys Res Lett 30: 1617-1620
78. Thomas E, Briner J (2009) Climate of the past millennium inferred from varved proglacial lake sediments on northeast Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. J Paleolimnol 41: 209-224
79. Tiljander M (2005) Holocene sedimentary history of annual laminations of Lake Korttajarvi, central Finland. PhD thesis, University of Helsinki
80. Tingley MP (2011) Spurious predictions with random time series: the Lasso in the context of paleoclimatic reconstructions. Discussion of: A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable? Ann Appl Stat 5: 83-87
81. Vinther BM, Clausen HB, Johnsen SJ, Rasmussen SO and others (2006) A synchronized dating of three Greenland ice cores throughout the Holocene. J Geophys Res 111: D13102, doi: 10.1029/ 2005 JD006921
82. Vinther BM, Jones PD, Briffa KR, Clausen HB, Andersen KK, Dahl-Jensen D, Johnsen SJ (2010) Climatic signals in multiple highly resolved stable isotope records from Greenland. Quat Sci Rev 29: 522-538
83. von Storch H, Zorita E, Jones J, Dimitriev Y, Gonzalez- Rouco F, Tett S (2004) Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science 306: 679-682 (Pubitemid 39440914)
84. von Storch H, Zorita E, Gonzalez-Rouco F (2009) Assessment of three temperature reconstruction methods in the virtual reality of a climate simulation. Int J Earth Sci 98: 67-82
85. Wahl ER, Ammann CM (2007) Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence. Clim Change 85: 33-69 (Pubitemid 47546887)
86. Wilks D (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, Vol 91. Elsevier, Amsterdam
87. Wu T, Yu R, Zhang F, Wang Z and others (2010) The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model: description and its performance for the present-day climate. Clim Dyn 34: 123-147
88. Zhou T, Wu B, Wen X, Li L, Wang B (2008) A fast version of LASG/IAP climate system model and its 1000-year control integration. Adv Atmos Sci 25: 655-672