Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction

Journal of Climate

Volumn 20, Issue 4, 2007, Pages 650-666

  Hegerl, Gabriele C ^a   Crowley, Thomas J ^a   Allen, Myles ^b   Hyde, William T ^a   Pollack, Henry N ^c   Smerdon, Jason ^d   Zorita, Eduardo ^e  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^d Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

^e INSTITUTE OF MATERIALS RESEARCH   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CALIBRATION; CLIMATOLOGY; GREENHOUSE GASES;

ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS; LOW-FREQUENCY CLIMATE VARIABILITY; TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION;

GLOBAL WARMING;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE VARIATION; DETECTION METHOD; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GAS; RECONSTRUCTION; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

EID: 33847366663     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4011.1     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Adcock, R. J., 1878: A problem in least squares. Analyst, 5, 53-54.
2. Allen, M. R., and P. A. Stott, 2003: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting. Part I: Theory. Climate Dyn., 21, 477-491.
3. Beltrami, H., 2002: Climate from borehole data: Energy fluxes and temperatures since 1500. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2111, doi:10.1029/ 2002GLO15702.
4. Bertrand, C., M. F. Loutre, M. Crucifix, and A. Berger, 2002: Climate of the last millennium: A sensitivity study. Tellus, 54A, 221-244.
5. Bond, G., and Coauthors, 2001: Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science, 294, 2130-2136.
6. Briffa, K. R., P. D. Jones, F. H. Schweingruber, S. G. Shiyatov, and E. R. Cook, 1995: Unusual 20th century summer warmth in a 1, 000 year temperature record from Siberia. Nature, 376, 156-159.
7. Briffa, K. R., T. J. Osborn, F. H. Schweingruber, I. C. Harris, P. D. Jones, S. G. Shiyatov, and E. A. Vaganov, 2001: Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 2929-2941.
8. Brohan, P., J. J. Kennedy, L. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones, 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new dataset from 1850. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.
9. Carslaw, H. S., and J. C. Jaeger, 1959: Conduction of Heat in Solids. 2d ed. Oxford University Press, 510 pp.
10. Coelho, C. A. S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and D. B. Stephenson, 2004: Forecast calibration and combination: A simple Bayesian approach for ENSO. J. Climate, 17, 1504-1516.
11. Cook, E. R., K. R. Briffa, D. M. Meko, D. A. Graybill, and G. Funkhouser, 1995: The "segment length curse" in long tree-ring chronology development for palaeoclimatic studies. Holocene, 5, 229-237.
12. Cook, E. R., J. Esper, and R. D'Arrigo, 2004: Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere land temperature variability over the past 1000 years. Quat. Sci. Rev., 23, 2063-2074.
13. Crowley, T. J., 2000: Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science, 289, 270-277.
14. Crowley, T. J., and T. S. Lowery, 2000: How warm was the medieval warm period? A comment on "Man-made versus natural climate Change." Ambio, 29, 51-54.
15. Cubasch, U., R. Voss, G. C. Hegerl, J. Waszkewitz, and T. J. Crowley, 1997: Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Climate Dyn., 13, 757-767.
16. D'Arrigo, R., and Coauthors, 2001: 1738 years of Mongolian temperature variability inferred from a tree ring width chronology of Siberian pine. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 543-546.
17. Delworth, T. L., and T. R. Knutson, 2000: Simulation of early 20th century global warming. Science, 287, 2246-2250.
18. Esper, J., E. R. Cook, and F. H. Schweingruber, 2002: Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstruction of past temperature variability. Science, 295, 2250-2253.
19. 2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn. J. Geophys. Res., 101 (D2), 4115-4128.
20. Etheridge, D. M., L. P. Steele, R. J. Fancey, and R. L. Langenfelds, 1998: Atmospheric methane between 1000 A.D. and present: Evidence of anthropogenic emissions and climatic variability. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 15 979-15 993.
21. 18O and precipitation records from sites in Canada and Greenland over the last 3500 years and over the last few centuries in detail using EOF techniques. Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, P. D. Jones et al., Eds., Springer-Verlag, 297-328.
22. 20 concentration during abrupt climate changes. Science, 285, 227-230.
23. Folland, C. K., and Coauthors, 2001: Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. Geophys. Res. Lett, 28, 2621-2624.
24. González-Rouco, F., H. von Storch, and E. Zorita, 2003: Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2116, doi:10.1029/2003GL018264.
25. González-Rouco, J. F., H. Beltrami, E. Zorita, and H. von Storch, 2006: Simulation and inversion of borehole temperature profiles in surrogate climates: Spatial distribution and surface coupling. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01703, doi:10.1029/2005GL024693.
26. Grove, J. M., 1988: The Little Ice Age. Methuen, 498 pp.
27. Grudd, H., K. R. Briffa, W. Karlen, T. S. Bartholin, P. D. Jones, and B. Kromer, 2002: A 7400 year tree ring chronology in northern Swedish Lapland: Natural climate variability expressed on annual to millennial time scales. Holocene, 12, 657-665.
28. Hansen, J., and Coauthors, 2002: Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.
29. Hantemirov, R. M., and S. G. Shiyato, 2002: A continuous multimillennial ring width chronology in Yamal, northwestern Siberia. Holocene, 12, 717-726.
30. Harris, R. N., and D. S. Chapman, 2001: Mid-latitude (30°-60°N) climatic warming inferred by combining borehole temperatures with surface air temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 747-750.
31. Hegerl, G. C., K. Hasselmann, U. Cubasch, J. F. B. Mitchell, E. Roeckner, R. Voss, and J. Waszkewitz, 1997: Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution of greenhouse-gas and aerosol-forced climate change. Climate Dyn., 13, 613-634.
32. Hegerl, G. C., T. J. Crowley, S. K. Baum, K.-Y. Kim, and W. T. Hyde, 2003: Detection of volcanic, solar, and greenhouse gas signals in paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hempispheric temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1242, doi:10.1029/2002GL016635.
33. Hegerl, G. C., T. J. Crowley, W. T. Hyde, and D. Frame, 2006: Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions of the last seven centuries. Nature, 440, 1029-1032.
34. Huang, S., H. N. Pollack, and P. Y. Shen, 2000: Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature, 403, 756-758.
35. International Ad Hoc Detection and Attribution Group, 2005: Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: A review of recent advances. J. Climate, 18, 1291-1314.
36. Jones, P. D., and M. E. Mann, 2004: Climate over past millennia. Rev. Geophys., 42, RG2002, doi:10.1029/2003RG000143.
37. Jones, P. D., T. J. Osborn, and K. R. Briffa, 1997: Estimating sampling errors in large-scale temperature averages. J. Climate, 10, 2548-2568.
38. Jones, P. D., T. J. Osborn, and K. R. Briffa, 2001: The evolution of climate over the last millennium. Science, 292, 662-667.
39. Lean, J. L., J. Beer, and R. Bradley, 1995: Reconstruction of solar irradiarice since 1610: Implications for climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 3195-3198.
40. Lean, J. L., Y.-M. Wang, and N. R. Sheeley Jr., 2002: The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2224, doi:10.1029/2002GL015708.
41. Lloyd, A. H., and L. J. Graumlich, 1997: Holocene dynamics of treeline forests in the Sierra Nevada. Ecology, 78, 1199-1210.
42. Luckman, B. H., K. R. Briffa, P. D. Jones, and F. H. Schweingruber, 1997: Tree-ring reconstructions of summer temperature at the Columbia Ice Field, Alberta, Canada. Holocene, 7, 375-389.
43. Luterbacher, J., D. Dietrich, E. Xoplaki, M. Grosjean, and H. Wanner, 2004: European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science, 303, 1499-1503.
44. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 759-762.
45. Mann, M. E., S. Rutherford, E. Wahl, and C. Ammann, 2005: Testing the fidelity of methods used in proxy-based reconstructions of past climate. J. Climate, 18, 4097-4107.
46. Mitchell, J. F. B., D. J. Karoly, G. C. Hegerl, F. E. Zwiers, and J. Marengo, 2001: Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 695-738.
47. Moberg, A., D. M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N. M. Datsenko, and W. Karlen, 2005: Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature, 433, 613-617.
48. Naurzbaev, M. M., E. A. Vaganov, O. V. Sidorova, and F. H. Schweingruber, 2002: Summer temperatures in eastern Taimyr inferred from a 2427 year late Holocene chronology and earlier floating series. Holocene, 12, 727-736.
49. North, G. R., and M. Stevens, 1998: Detecting climate signals in the surface temperature record. J. Climate, 11, 563-577.
50. Oerlemanns, J., 2005: Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records. Science, 308, 675-677.
51. Pinto, J. P., R. P. Turco, and O. B. Toon, 1989: Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in volcanic eruption clouds. J. Geophys. Res., 94, 11 165-11 174.
52. Pollack, H. N., and S. Huang, 2000: Climate reconstruction from subsurface temperatures. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 28, 339-365.
53. Pollack, H. N., and J. E. Smerdon, 2004: Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D11106, doi:10.1029/2003JD004163.
54. Robock, A., and M. Free, 1995: Ice cores as an index of global volcanism from 1850 to the present. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 11 549-11 567.
55. Shindell, D. T., G. A. Schmidt, M. E. Mann, and G. Faluvegi, 2004: Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D05104, doi:10.1029/2003JD004151.
56. Stendel, M., I. A. Morgensen, and J. H. Christensen, 2005: Influence of various forcings on global climate in historical times using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Climate Dyn., 26, 1-15.
57. Stott, P. A., G. S. Jones, and J. F. B. Mitchell, 2003: Do models underestimate the solar contribution to recent climate change? J. Climate, 16, 4079-4093.
58. Szeicz, J. M., and G. M. MacDonald, 1995: Dendroclimatic reconstruction of summer temperatures in Northwestern Canada based on age dependent modelling. Quat. Res., 44, 257-266.
59. Tett, S. F. B., P. A. Stott, M. R. Allen, W. J. Ingram, and J. F. B. Mitchell, 1999: Causes of twentieth century temperature change near the earth's surface. Nature, 399, 569-572.
60. Thompson, D., J. M. Wallace, and G. C. Hegerl, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. J. Climate, 13, 1018-1036.
61. von Storch, H., E. Zorita, J. M. Jones, Y. Dimitriev, F. González-Rouco, and S. F. B. Tett, 2004: Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science, 306, 679-682.
62. von Storch, H., E. Zorita, J. M. Jones, F. González-Rouco, and S. F. B. Tett, 2006: Response to comment on "Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science, 312, 529c.
63. Wahl, E. R., D. M. Ritson, and C. M. Ammann, 2006: Comment on "Reconstructing past climate from noisy data." Science, 312, 529b.
64. Weber, S. L., 2005: A timescale analysis of the NH temperature response to volcanic and solar forcing in the past millennium. Climate Past Discuss., 1, 137-214.
65. Yang, B., A. Braeuning, K. R. Johnson, and S. Yafeng, 2002: General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1324, doi:10.1029/2001GL014485.
66. Zorita, E., J. F. González-Rouco, and S. Legutke, 2003: Testing the Mann et al. (1998) approach to paleoclimate reconstructions in the context of a 1000-yr control simulation with the ECHO-G coupled climate model. J. Climate, 16, 1378-1390.
67. Zwiers, F. W., and S. S. Shen, 1997: Errors in estimating spherical harmonic coefficients from partially sampled GCM output. Climate Dyn., 13, 703-716.